FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayMEAC

0:3

HomeCAA

Towson def. Howard 3–0

(25-18, 25-14, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOWARD	18	14	16	0
TOWSON	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TOWSON above 50 · HOWARD below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Towson — set 1, HOWARD 14-14 TOWSON. Kill by Ava Drye (set by Peyton Meyer). TOWSON win probability 88% → 90%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOWARD 8.8%91.2% TOWSON

Howard wins

3-0

1.1%

3-1

2.6%

3-2

5.0%

Towson wins

3-0

46.7%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

13.2%

HOWARD break %: 36.9% vs this opp
TOWSON break %: 47.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ava DryeKill+1.7%
Kill by Ava Drye (set by Peyton Meyer)
Set 1 · HOWARD 14-14 TOWSON · TOWSON 88% → 90%
02
Taylor PaganAttack error+1.6%
Taylor Pagan stuffed by Easnadh Nobel Toolo & Haarachi Umenwaliri
Set 1 · HOWARD 10-8 TOWSON · HOWARD 11% → 12%
03
Kennedi WrightAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Kennedi Wright
Set 1 · HOWARD 14-15 TOWSON · TOWSON 90% → 91%
04
Kennedi WrightKill+1.5%
Kill by Kennedi Wright (set by Sydnei Jones)
Set 1 · HOWARD 14-12 TOWSON · HOWARD 12% → 13%
05
HOWARD serverAce+1.4%
Howard ace on Taylor Pagan
Set 1 · HOWARD 9-8 TOWSON · HOWARD 9% → 11%
06
Kennedi WrightAttack error+1.4%
Kennedi Wright stuffed by Ava Drye & Tshilanda Diouf
Set 1 · HOWARD 14-16 TOWSON · TOWSON 91% → 93%
07
TOWSON serverService error+1.4%
Towson service error
Set 1 · HOWARD 13-11 TOWSON · HOWARD 12% → 13%
08
Dayion JohnsonKill+1.3%
Kill by Dayion Johnson (set by Alexys James)
Set 1 · HOWARD 12-10 TOWSON · HOWARD 11% → 13%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Howardaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
0Haarachi UmenwaliriMB	3	5	3	10	.200	0	0	0	1	1	3	1.5	6.5
13Dayion JohnsonOH	3	5	3	21	.095	0	0	0	2	1	1	0.5	5.5
17Tiana StubbsMB	3	4	0	4	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
5Alexys JamesS	3	2	2	14	.000	15	1	1	4	0	1	0.5	3.5
33Kennedi WrightOH	2	7	3	16	.250	0	1	0	4	2	0	0	8
7Easnadh Nobel TooloOH	2	3	2	11	.091	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Camryn SheltonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	11	3	0	0	0
20Gabby AllenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
6Sydnei JonesS	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
2Estrella VazquezS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
22Corinne HowardOH	1	2	0	8	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
21Addison BucknerOH	1	0	3	10	-.300	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
Team totals		28	16	94	.128	27	3	6	32	10	6	3	48

Towsonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Taylor PaganOH	3	11	5	24	.250	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.5	11.5
10Anna RiceOH	3	10	0	16	.625	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.5	11.5
6Malinah Purcell-TelefoniOPP	3	5	1	11	.364	0	4	3	0	0	2	1	10
9Tshilanda DioufOPP	3	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
22Kaitlyn MoranS	3	1	0	1	1.000	24	3	1	2	0	0	0	4
18Destini PickettOH	2	4	0	7	.571	0	2	0	3	1	1	0.5	6.5
4Ava DryeOPP	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	5.5
11Peyton MeyerS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
12Kayla ZanonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
2Megan PlattL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
14Evi PriniotakiOH	2	4	0	10	.400	1	0	1	8	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Bjanka StojanovicOPP	2	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Natalia PebenitoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
1Lilia DuczekMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	10	87	.379	41	10	7	42	3	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 HOWARD · TOWSON 13

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 HOWARDTOWSON 7

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 HOWARDTOWSON 4

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 8 HOWARDTOWSON 13

Bars above the line = Towson leads, below = Howard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Howard

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	26%6/23	44%4/9
2	55%6/11	0%0/6
3	55%6/11	0%0/6
4	71%5/7	25%2/8
5	42%5/12	38%3/8
6	40%4/10	58%7/12
All	43%32/74	33%16/49

Towson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%6/6	80%20/25
2	100%6/6	14%1/7
3	100%6/6	57%8/14
4	56%5/9	38%3/8
5	38%5/13	62%8/13
6	56%5/9	29%2/7
All	67%33/49	57%42/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	HOWARD-TOWSON	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TOWSON	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.9
2	0-2	TOWSON	TOWSON	Attack err	Kennedi Wright		+0.8
3	1-2	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Alexys James	+0.6
4	1-3	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.6
5	2-3	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Easnadh Nobel Toolo	set Alexys James	+0.6
6	2-4	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.6
7	3-4	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Sydnei Jones	+0.6
8	3-5	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.6
9	3-6	TOWSON	TOWSON	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.7
10	4-6	TOWSON	HOWARD×3	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Gabby Allen	+0.5
11	5-6	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.9
12	6-6	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Destini Pickett	+1.1
13	6-7	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Ava Drye	set Peyton Meyer	+0.8
14	7-7	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Haarachi Umenwaliri	set Sydnei Jones	+0.9
15	7-8	HOWARD	TOWSON	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.8
16	8-8	TOWSON	HOWARD×3	Kill	Haarachi Umenwaliri	set Alexys James	+0.9
17	9-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Taylor Pagan	+1.4
18	10-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Taylor Pagan	blk Easnadh Nobel Toolo, Haarachi Umenwaliri	+1.6
19	10-9	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+1.0
20	11-9	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Alexys James	+1.3
21	11-10	HOWARD	TOWSON	Serve err	HOWARD server		+1.1
22	12-10	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Alexys James	+1.3
23	12-11	HOWARD	TOWSON	Serve err	HOWARD server		+1.1
24	13-11	TOWSON	HOWARD	Serve err	TOWSON server		+1.4
25	13-12	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+1.2
26	14-12	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Sydnei Jones	+1.5
27	14-13	HOWARD	TOWSON×7	Serve err	HOWARD server		+1.2
28	14-14	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Kill	Ava Drye	set Peyton Meyer	+1.7
29	14-15	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Attack err	Kennedi Wright		+1.6
30	14-16	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Attack err	Kennedi Wright	blk Ava Drye, Tshilanda Diouf	+1.4
31	14-17	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Haarachi Umenwaliri	+1.1
32	14-18	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Kennedi Wright	+0.8
33	14-19	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Kill	Ava Drye	set Taylor Pagan	+0.6
34	15-19	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
35	15-20	HOWARD	TOWSON×3	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Peyton Meyer	+0.4
36	15-21	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+0.3
37	15-22	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.1
38	16-22	TOWSON	HOWARD×3	Kill	Easnadh Nobel Toolo	set Alexys James	+0.0
39	17-22	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+0.1
40	18-22	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Ava Drye	blk Dayion Johnson, Haarachi Umenwaliri	+0.2
41	18-23	HOWARD	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Dayion Johnson	blk Malinah Purcell-Telefoni, Ava Drye	+0.3
42	18-24	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Haarachi Umenwaliri		+0.1
43	18-25	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Easnadh Nobel Toolo		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.4
2	0-2	TOWSON	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kayla Zanon	+0.5
3	1-2	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Easnadh Nobel Toolo	set Alexys James	+0.4
4	1-3	HOWARD	TOWSON×3	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.4
5	1-4	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
6	1-5	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Camryn Shelton	+0.4
7	2-5	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Alexys James	+0.3
8	2-6	HOWARD	TOWSON	Attack err	Addison Buckner	blk Tshilanda Diouf, Destini Pickett	+0.3
9	3-6	TOWSON	HOWARD×3	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.3
10	4-6	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Sydnei Jones	+0.5
11	5-6	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Ava Drye		+0.6
12	5-7	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Peyton Meyer	+0.4
13	5-8	TOWSON	TOWSON	Attack err	Addison Buckner	blk Ava Drye, Tshilanda Diouf	+0.5
14	6-8	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
15	6-9	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+0.4
16	7-9	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Haarachi Umenwaliri	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
17	7-10	HOWARD	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+0.4
18	7-11	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
19	7-12	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Easnadh Nobel Toolo	blk Anna Rice, Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	+0.4
20	8-12	TOWSON	HOWARD	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.2
21	8-13	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.3
22	9-13	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Alexys James	+0.2
23	9-14	HOWARD	TOWSON×4	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.3
24	9-15	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Addison Buckner	+0.3
25	9-16	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Addison Buckner	+0.2
26	9-17	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Tshilanda Diouf	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.1
27	10-17	TOWSON	HOWARD	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.0
28	10-18	HOWARD	TOWSON×3	Kill	Evi Priniotaki	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.1
29	10-19	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Addison Buckner	+0.0
30	10-20	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Addison Buckner		+0.0
31	11-20	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
32	11-21	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Tshilanda Diouf	set Peyton Meyer	+0.0
33	12-21	TOWSON	HOWARD	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+0.0
34	13-21	HOWARD	HOWARD	Attack err	Taylor Pagan	blk Alexys James, Haarachi Umenwaliri	+0.0
35	13-22	HOWARD	TOWSON	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.0
36	14-22	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Haarachi Umenwaliri	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
37	14-23	HOWARD	TOWSON×3	Kill	Bjanka Stojanovic	set Peyton Meyer	+0.0
38	14-24	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
39	14-25	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Corinne Howard	set Alexys James	+0.2
2	1-1	HOWARD	TOWSON	Attack err	Dayion Johnson		+0.2
3	2-1	TOWSON	HOWARD	Attack err	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni		+0.3
4	2-2	HOWARD	TOWSON×4	Kill	Evi Priniotaki	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.2
5	2-3	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Attack err	Alexys James	blk Evi Priniotaki, Tshilanda Diouf	+0.3
6	2-4	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Camryn Shelton	+0.3
7	2-5	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Evi Priniotaki	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.2
8	3-5	TOWSON	HOWARD	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.2
9	3-6	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Evi Priniotaki	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.2
10	4-6	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Sydnei Jones	+0.2
11	4-7	HOWARD	TOWSON	Attack err	Alexys James		+0.2
12	4-8	TOWSON	TOWSON	Attack err	Haarachi Umenwaliri	blk Tshilanda Diouf, Taylor Pagan	+0.2
13	5-8	TOWSON	HOWARD×8	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.1
14	6-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×8	Attack err	Bjanka Stojanovic		+0.2
15	7-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×8	Kill	Kennedi Wright		+0.3
16	8-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×8	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Alexys James	+0.4
17	9-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×8	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Team	+0.4
18	10-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×8	Attack err	Bjanka Stojanovic		+0.5
19	11-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×8	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Alexys James	+0.5
20	12-8	HOWARD	HOWARD×8	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+0.6
21	12-9	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Ava Drye	set Peyton Meyer	+0.3
22	13-9	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Haarachi Umenwaliri	set Alexys James	+0.4
23	13-10	HOWARD	TOWSON×13	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.3
24	13-11	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
25	13-12	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
26	13-13	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Kennedi Wright	+0.5
27	13-14	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
28	13-15	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Kill	Kaitlyn Moran	set Evi Priniotaki	+0.4
29	13-16	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni		+0.3
30	13-17	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.3
31	13-18	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Attack err	Haarachi Umenwaliri		+0.2
32	13-19	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Attack err	Dayion Johnson		+0.1
33	13-20	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kayla Zanon	+0.1
34	13-21	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Camryn Shelton	+0.0
35	13-22	TOWSON	TOWSON×13	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Dayion Johnson	+0.0
36	14-22	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Corinne Howard	set Alexys James	+0.0
37	14-23	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
38	15-23	TOWSON	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Alexys James	+0.0
39	15-24	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
40	16-24	TOWSON	HOWARD	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.0
41	16-25	HOWARD	TOWSON	Kill	Tshilanda Diouf	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Howard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.