Final · 4 setsTue, Oct 13, 2026

UMBC def. Howard 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UMBC 93.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 13, 3:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UMBC beat visiting Howard 3-1 (25-23, 23-25, 25-22, 25-21) on Tue, Oct 13, 2026. UMBC's Hannah Dobbs led with 25 kills, and Hannah Howard added 21 digs.

Data through · final Oct 13

Set1234Sets
HOWARD232522211
UMBC252325253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UMBC won it on runs.

No single rally moved win probability more than 5.3 points. Howard peaked at 26% in Set 3. These are the numbers behind it. RallyIQ gave UMBC 93% before first serve.

HowardUMBC
  • Longest run+1
    56

    6 straight UMBC points in the fourth set broke a 13–13 tie and made it 19–13. Final score of the set: 25–21.

UMBC above 50Howard belowMax swing 5.3%

HowardUMBC

Hitting
Howard .215·UMBC .204
Aces
Howard 4·UMBC 5
Serve err
Howard 13·UMBC 9
Blocks
Howard 4·UMBC 61 BS · 6 BA vs 0 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Howard 69·UMBC 67

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UMBC above 50 · Howard below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.3% UMBCrally 189 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.3% to UMBC — set 3, HOWARD 21-22 UMBC. Kill by Hannah Dobbs (set by Hannah Howard). UMBC win probability 82% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HOWARD 6.5%93.5% UMBC

Howard wins

3-0
0.8%
3-1
1.9%
3-2
3.9%

UMBC wins

3-0
51.4%
3-1
30.7%
3-2
11.4%
HOWARD break %
37.3% vs this opp
UMBC break %
48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Hannah DobbsKill+5.3%

    Kill by Hannah Dobbs (set by Hannah Howard)

    Set 3 · HOWARD 21-22 UMBC · UMBC 82% → 87%

  2. 02
    Hannah DobbsKill+4.7%

    Kill by Hannah Dobbs (set by Isabel Ostvig)

    Set 3 · HOWARD 20-20 UMBC · UMBC 78% → 82%

  3. 03

    Kill by Addison Buckner (set by Sydnei Jones)

    Set 3 · HOWARD 21-20 UMBC · HOWARD 18% → 22%

  4. 04
    Hannah DobbsKill+4.3%

    Kill by Hannah Dobbs (set by Isabel Ostvig)

    Set 3 · HOWARD 21-23 UMBC · UMBC 87% → 92%

  5. 05
    Natalie HarrisAttack error+4.1%

    Attack error by Natalie Harris

    Set 3 · HOWARD 17-14 UMBC · HOWARD 22% → 26%

  6. 06
    Natalie HarrisService error+4.0%

    Service error by Natalie Harris

    Set 3 · HOWARD 20-18 UMBC · HOWARD 21% → 25%

  7. 07
    Alexys JamesAttack error+3.9%

    Attack error by Alexys James

    Set 1 · HOWARD 23-24 UMBC · UMBC 90% → 94%

  8. 08

    Ace by Estrella Vazquez on Hannah Dobbs

    Set 3 · HOWARD 16-14 UMBC · HOWARD 18% → 22%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Howardaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415130.4670123012218
412731.1612403110010.512.5
411538.15810143010.511.5
4015-.20021121100001
4000–000600000
1001.000000000000
45219.15800020010.55.5
4011-1.0006022910000
3519.444000100005
3327.14300000010.53.5
2328.125000200003
2000–023000002
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5422149.2155241369516491
UMBChome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
425557.35100272010.525.5
412643.1400028102113
411833.09100010010.511.5
4318.2504421120031.56.5
44415.00000010010.54.5
4206.333000300424
4000–9122100001
4000–000700000
4000–002300000
2000–120400002
Team totals5724162.2045459674012698

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 HOWARD · UMBC 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 HOWARDUMBC 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 HOWARDUMBC 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 HOWARDUMBC 4

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 4 HOWARDUMBC 6

Bars above the line = UMBC leads, below = Howard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Howard

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%11/23
47%8/17
2
58%11/19
35%6/17
3
65%11/17
27%4/15
4
83%10/12
35%6/17
5
64%9/14
38%6/16
6
58%7/12
20%2/10
All
61%59/97
35%32/92

UMBC

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%11/22
50%9/18
2
73%11/15
54%13/24
3
79%11/14
31%5/16
4
50%10/20
29%4/14
5
82%9/11
31%4/13
6
80%8/10
25%3/12
All
65%60/92
39%38/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

189 rallies

#HOWARD-UMBCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UMBCHOWARD×3KillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+0.7
22-0HOWARDHOWARD×3BlockedClaudia Llamasblk Alexys James, Zenai Jethroe+1.0
33-0HOWARDHOWARD×3Attack errClaudia Llamas+1.1
43-1HOWARDUMBCServe errCamryn Shelton+0.7
53-2UMBCUMBCAttack errZenai Jethroe+0.9
64-2UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Camryn Shelton+0.8
74-3HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Hannah Howard+0.7
85-3UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.9
95-4HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+0.7
105-5UMBCUMBCKillIsabel Ostvig+0.9
116-5UMBCHOWARDKillDayion Johnsonset Alexys James+0.8
126-6HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+0.7
137-6UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys James+0.8
148-6HOWARDHOWARDAceSydnei Jonesaced Natalie Harris+1.2
158-7HOWARDUMBCServe errSydnei Jones+0.8
169-7UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.0
179-8HOWARDUMBC×4BlockedCamryn Sheltonblk Isabel Ostvig, Grace Larrivee+0.9
189-9UMBCUMBC×4KillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+1.1
199-10UMBCUMBC×4KillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+1.0
209-11UMBCUMBC×4AceIsabel Ostvig+0.9
2110-11UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+0.7
2210-12HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+0.7
2311-12UMBCHOWARDAttack errNatalie Harris+0.7
2411-13HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+0.7
2512-13UMBCHOWARDAttack errClaudia Llamas+0.8
2612-14HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+0.7
2713-14UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.8
2814-14HOWARDHOWARDAttack errJalynn Brown+1.3
2914-15HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+1.0
3015-15UMBCHOWARDKillDayion Johnsonset Alexys James+1.1
3115-16HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.0
3216-16UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.2
3317-16HOWARDHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+1.8
3417-17HOWARDUMBC×3KillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.3
3517-18UMBCUMBC×3Attack errAddison Buckner+1.6
3617-19UMBCUMBC×3KillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.4
3718-19UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.0
3819-19HOWARDHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.9
3919-20HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.4
4020-20UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.6
4120-21HOWARDUMBCServe errAlexys James+1.6
4221-21UMBCHOWARDKillCorinne Howardset Alexys James+1.8
4321-22HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+1.8
4422-22UMBCHOWARDServe errEma Djordjevic+2.0
4523-22HOWARDHOWARDAceZenai Jethroeaced Hannah Dobbs+3.7
4623-23HOWARDUMBC×3Serve errZenai Jethroe+2.6
4723-24UMBCUMBC×3Attack errAlexys James+3.9
4823-25UMBCUMBC×3Attack errDayion Johnson+3.0
Set 2
11-0HOWARDHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+0.6
21-1HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+0.4
31-2UMBCUMBCAttack errAlexys James+0.5
42-2UMBCHOWARDKillTiana Stubbsset Sydnei Jones+0.4
52-3HOWARDUMBCBlockedAlexys Jamesblk Grace Larrivee, Natalie Harris+0.4
63-3UMBCHOWARDAttack errNatalie Harris+0.4
74-3HOWARDHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Alexys James+0.6
84-4HOWARDUMBCServe errAlexys James+0.4
95-4UMBCHOWARD×5KillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.5
106-4HOWARDHOWARD×5Attack errNatalie Harris+0.8
117-4HOWARDHOWARD×5BlockedNatalie Harrisblk Corinne Howard, Zenai Jethroe+0.9
128-4HOWARDHOWARD×5KillDayion Johnsonset Alexys James+0.9
139-4HOWARDHOWARD×5KillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.9
149-5HOWARDUMBCAttack errDayion Johnson+0.6
1510-5UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.8
1610-6HOWARDUMBCKillJalynn Brownset Isabel Ostvig+0.6
1711-6UMBCHOWARDKillCorinne Howardset Alexys James+0.8
1811-7HOWARDUMBC×5KillIsabel Ostvigset Isabel Ostvig+0.6
1911-8UMBCUMBC×5AceIsabel Ostvigaced Camryn Shelton+0.8
2011-9UMBCUMBC×5Attack errAlexys James+0.9
2111-10UMBCUMBC×5KillGrace Larrivee+0.8
2211-11UMBCUMBC×5KillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+0.8
2312-11UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+0.7
2412-12HOWARDUMBCAttack errAddison Buckner+0.6
2513-12UMBCHOWARDBlockedClaudia Llamasblk Addison Buckner, Tiana Stubbs+0.7
2613-13HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+0.7
2714-13UMBCHOWARDServe errHannah Howard+0.8
2814-14HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+0.7
2915-14UMBCHOWARDKillCorinne Howardset Alexys James+0.8
3015-15HOWARDUMBCBlockedCorinne Howardblk Isabel Ostvig, Natalie Harris+0.7
3116-15UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.9
3216-16HOWARDUMBCKillJalynn Brownset Isabel Ostvig+0.8
3317-16UMBCHOWARDKillBriana Paganset Alexys James+1.0
3417-17HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+0.8
3518-17UMBCHOWARD×3KillBriana Paganset Sydnei Jones+1.0
3619-17HOWARDHOWARD×3Attack errClaudia Llamas+1.5
3720-17HOWARDHOWARD×3KillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+1.6
3820-18HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+0.9
3921-18UMBCHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.3
4021-19HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+0.9
4122-19UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.4
4222-20HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Hannah Howard+0.9
4322-21UMBCUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+1.6
4423-21UMBCHOWARDKillCorinne Howardset Addison Buckner+1.9
4523-22HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+1.2
4624-22UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+2.2
4724-23HOWARDUMBCServe errZenai Jethroe+1.2
4825-23UMBCHOWARDKillTiana Stubbsset Alexys James+3.2
Set 3
11-0UMBCHOWARDServe errNatalie Harris+1.4
22-0HOWARDHOWARDAttack errJalynn Brown+2.1
32-1HOWARDUMBCAttack errAlexys James+1.4
42-2UMBCUMBCKillGrace Larriveeset Isabel Ostvig+1.8
53-2UMBCHOWARDAttack errHannah Dobbs+1.5
64-2HOWARDHOWARDBlockedIsabel Ostvigblk Zenai Jethroe+2.2
74-3HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Hannah Howard+1.5
85-3UMBCHOWARDServe errIsabel Ostvig+1.8
95-4HOWARDUMBCServe errAddison Buckner+1.5
106-4UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+1.9
116-5HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+1.6
127-5UMBCHOWARDKillCorinne Howardset Alexys James+1.9
137-6HOWARDUMBCServe errSydnei Jones+1.7
147-7UMBCUMBCAttack errTiana Stubbs+2.1
158-7UMBCHOWARDKillBriana Paganset Sydnei Jones+1.8
168-8HOWARDUMBCBlockedAddison Bucknerblk Isabel Ostvig, Jalynn Brown+1.6
179-8UMBCHOWARDAttack errJalynn Brown+1.9
189-9HOWARDUMBC×4Serve errCamryn Shelton+1.7
199-10UMBCUMBC×4BlockedAlexys Jamesblk Grace Larrivee, Hannah Dobbs+2.1
209-11UMBCUMBC×4KillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.8
219-12UMBCUMBC×4Attack errSydnei Jones+1.5
2210-12UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Sydnei Jones+1.1
2311-12HOWARDHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+1.9
2411-13HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.5
2512-13UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+1.6
2613-13HOWARDHOWARDAttack errHannah Dobbs+2.6
2713-14HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.9
2814-14UMBCHOWARD×4Serve errHannah Dobbs+2.1
2915-14HOWARDHOWARD×4AceEstrella Vazquez+3.3
3016-14HOWARDHOWARD×4AceEstrella Vazquezaced Hannah Dobbs+3.9
3117-14HOWARDHOWARD×4Attack errNatalie Harris+4.1
3217-15HOWARDUMBCServe errEstrella Vazquez+2.4
3317-16UMBCUMBCAttack errBriana Pagan+3.6
3418-16UMBCHOWARDAttack errClaudia Llamas+3.4
3518-17HOWARDUMBCKillJalynn Brownset Isabel Ostvig+2.8
3619-17UMBCHOWARDAttack errNatalie Harris+3.7
3719-18HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+2.9
3820-18UMBCHOWARDServe errNatalie Harris+4.0
3920-19HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+3.1
4020-20UMBCUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+4.7
4121-20UMBCHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+4.4
4221-21HOWARDUMBC×4KillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+3.8
4321-22UMBCUMBC×4KillHannah Dobbsset Hannah Howard+5.3
4421-23UMBCUMBC×4KillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+4.3
4521-24UMBCUMBC×4Attack errAddison Buckner+2.6
4622-24UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.8
4722-25HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.7
Set 4
11-0HOWARDHOWARD×4KillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.3
22-0HOWARDHOWARD×4Attack errHannah Dobbs+1.5
33-0HOWARDHOWARD×4Attack errJalynn Brown+1.7
44-0HOWARDHOWARD×4KillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+1.8
54-1HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.1
64-2UMBCUMBCAceMegan Hunteraced Addison Buckner+1.5
75-2UMBCHOWARDAttack errHannah Dobbs+1.4
86-2HOWARDHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+2.0
96-3HOWARDUMBC×3KillHannah Dobbsset Hannah Howard+1.2
106-4UMBCUMBC×3KillClaudia Llamasset Hannah Howard+1.6
116-5UMBCUMBC×3KillHannah Dobbsset Hannah Howard+1.6
127-5UMBCHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.4
137-6HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.2
147-7UMBCUMBCBlockedCorinne Howardblk Grace Larrivee, Claudia Llamas+1.5
158-7UMBCHOWARDServe errHannah Dobbs+1.3
169-7HOWARDHOWARDAttack errClaudia Llamas+2.0
179-8HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+1.3
189-9UMBCUMBCAceHannah Howardaced Addison Buckner+1.7
1910-9UMBCHOWARDKillBriana Paganset Alexys James+1.5
2010-10HOWARDUMBC×3Serve errEstrella Vazquez+1.3
2110-11UMBCUMBC×3KillJalynn Brownset Isabel Ostvig+1.6
2210-12UMBCUMBC×3KillNatalie Harrisset Isabel Ostvig+1.4
2311-12UMBCHOWARDServe errEma Djordjevic+1.1
2412-12HOWARDHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.8
2512-13HOWARDUMBCKillIsabel Ostvigset Hannah Howard+1.3
2613-13UMBCHOWARDKillBriana Paganset Sydnei Jones+1.5
2713-14HOWARDUMBC×6KillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+1.4
2813-15UMBCUMBC×6KillHannah Dobbsset Megan Hunter+1.6
2913-16UMBCUMBC×6Attack errTiana Stubbs+1.3
3013-17UMBCUMBC×6AceMegan Hunteraced Addison Buckner+1.0
3113-18UMBCUMBC×6Attack errAlexys James+0.7
3213-19UMBCUMBC×6Bad setSydnei Jones+0.4
3314-19UMBCHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+0.2
3415-19HOWARDHOWARDAttack errHannah Dobbs+0.5
3515-20HOWARDUMBCKillHannah Dobbsset Isabel Ostvig+0.5
3616-20UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Sydnei Jones+0.4
3717-20HOWARDHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Isabel Ostvig+0.8
3817-21HOWARDUMBCServe errAlexys James+0.8
3917-22UMBCUMBCAttack errAddison Buckner+0.6
4018-22UMBCHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.3
4118-23HOWARDUMBCKillClaudia Llamasset Isabel Ostvig+0.4
4219-23UMBCHOWARDServe errHannah Howard+0.2
4320-23HOWARDHOWARDAttack errClaudia Llamas+0.5
4420-24HOWARDUMBCServe errEstrella Vazquez+0.7
4521-24UMBCHOWARDKillTiana Stubbsset Alexys James+0.2
4621-25HOWARDUMBCKillNatalie Harrisset Hannah Howard+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Howard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).