FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeSUMMIT-LEAGUE

South Dakota def. Milwaukee 3–0

(25-8, 25-22, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MILWKE	8	22	21	0
SO DAK	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SO DAK above 50 · MILWKE below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to South Dakota — set 1, MILWKE 0-1 SO DAK. Ella Schuetz stuffed by Amanda Loschen & Audrey Nelson. SO DAK win probability 93% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MILWKE 7.3%92.7% SO DAK

Milwaukee wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.2%

3-2

4.3%

South Dakota wins

3-0

49.6%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

12.1%

MILWKE break %: 34.4% vs this opp
SO DAK break %: 45.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ella SchuetzAttack error+0.8%
Ella Schuetz stuffed by Amanda Loschen & Audrey Nelson
Set 1 · MILWKE 0-1 SO DAK · SO DAK 93% → 93%
02
Gabi ZachariasenKill+0.7%
Kill by Gabi Zachariasen (set by Sierra Pokharel)
Set 1 · MILWKE 0-2 SO DAK · SO DAK 93% → 94%
03
Lauren MedeckAttack error+0.7%
Lauren Medeck stuffed by Kami Stover & Josie Noble
Set 2 · MILWKE 5-5 SO DAK · MILWKE 3% → 4%
04
Ella SchuetzAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Ella Schuetz
Set 1 · MILWKE 0-3 SO DAK · SO DAK 94% → 95%
05
SO DAK serverAce+0.6%
South Dakota ace on Ella Schuetz
Set 2 · MILWKE 6-8 SO DAK · SO DAK 97% → 97%
06
Audrey NelsonAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Audrey Nelson
Set 2 · MILWKE 16-18 SO DAK · MILWKE 2% → 3%
07
Annie EschenbachAttack error+0.5%
Annie Eschenbach stuffed by Gabi Zachariasen & Amanda Loschen
Set 2 · MILWKE 8-11 SO DAK · SO DAK 97% → 98%
08
Lauren MedeckAttack error+0.5%
Lauren Medeck stuffed by Kami Stover & Josie Noble
Set 2 · MILWKE 3-4 SO DAK · MILWKE 3% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Milwaukeeaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Josie NobleMB	3	8	3	24	.208	0	0	2	1	0	4	2	10
12Bella LipskiMB	3	8	0	13	.615	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
4Ella ParkerOH	3	5	4	15	.067	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	6
14Ella SchuetzOH	3	5	6	21	-.048	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	5
3Annie EschenbachOPP	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
5Milica TomicS	3	3	0	5	.600	11	0	1	5	0	0	0	3
11Kami StoverOH	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
17Emma DuffyS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
9Kati GobaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
10Braylin BosetskiDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Liv DoerreDS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Julia KellnerMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		35	17	98	.184	33	1	5	28	6	8	4	51

South Dakotahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Audrey NelsonMB	3	12	3	20	.450	1	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	14
4Lauren MedeckOH	3	12	5	34	.206	3	1	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
9Gabi ZachariasenOH	3	7	1	15	.400	0	4	1	2	0	0	2	1	12
8Morgan BodeMB	3	7	2	13	.385	1	0	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
14Amanda LoschenMB	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	3.5	7.5
2Avery Van HookS	3	4	0	5	.800	34	0	0	10	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
16Samantha UntiedtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
13Cora HokenstadDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
11Sierra PokharelDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	12	98	.347	45	6	3	42	1	1	16	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MILWKE · SO DAK 10

Set 1

8-25

Longest run 1 MILWKESO DAK 10

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 MILWKESO DAK 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 2 MILWKESO DAK 4

Bars above the line = South Dakota leads, below = Milwaukee leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Milwaukee

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	14%1/7
2	36%8/22	20%2/10
3	88%7/8	27%3/11
4	44%7/16	36%4/11
5	63%5/8	13%1/8
6	83%5/6	0%0/5
All	54%40/74	21%11/52

South Dakota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	36%4/11
2	73%8/11	58%11/19
3	78%7/9	46%6/13
4	70%7/10	56%9/16
5	86%6/7	25%2/8
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	79%41/52	46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	MILWKE-SO DAK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Ella Schuetz	blk Amanda Loschen, Audrey Nelson	+0.8
2	0-2	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Sierra Pokharel	+0.7
3	0-3	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Ella Schuetz		+0.6
4	1-3	SO DAK	MILWKE	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.4
5	1-4	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.4
6	2-4	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Milica Tomic	set Kati Goba	+0.4
7	2-5	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.4
8	2-6	SO DAK	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Morgan Bode	+0.5
9	3-6	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Annie Eschenbach	set Milica Tomic	+0.3
10	3-7	MILWKE	SO DAK×5	Attack err	Ella Parker	blk Audrey Nelson, Morgan Bode	+0.3
11	3-8	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.4
12	3-9	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Attack err	Josie Noble		+0.3
13	3-10	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Team	+0.2
14	3-11	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Attack err	Ella Parker		+0.1
15	4-11	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Kami Stover	set Emma Duffy	+0.1
16	4-12	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
17	5-12	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Schuetz	set Emma Duffy	+0.1
18	5-13	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
19	6-13	SO DAK	MILWKE	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.1
20	6-14	MILWKE	SO DAK	Serve err	MILWKE server		+0.1
21	7-14	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Milica Tomic	+0.1
22	7-15	MILWKE	SO DAK×10	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Audrey Nelson	+0.1
23	7-16	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Team	+0.1
24	7-17	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Attack err	Ella Schuetz		+0.0
25	7-18	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Attack err	Annie Eschenbach		+0.0
26	7-19	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Sierra Pokharel	+0.0
27	7-20	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Ella Parker	+0.0
28	7-21	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.0
29	7-22	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.0
30	7-23	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Attack err	Ella Parker	blk Amanda Loschen, Audrey Nelson	+0.0
31	7-24	SO DAK	SO DAK×10	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.0
32	8-24	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Parker	set Milica Tomic	+0.0
33	8-25	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Ella Schuetz	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Avery Van Hook		+0.3
2	1-1	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Milica Tomic	+0.4
3	1-2	MILWKE	SO DAK×3	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.4
4	1-3	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Team	+0.5
5	1-4	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Josie Noble	blk Amanda Loschen	+0.4
6	2-4	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Annie Eschenbach	set Milica Tomic	+0.3
7	3-4	MILWKE	MILWKE	Attack err	Lauren Medeck	blk Kami Stover, Josie Noble	+0.5
8	3-5	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Sierra Pokharel	+0.3
9	4-5	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Josie Noble	set Emma Duffy	+0.4
10	5-5	MILWKE	MILWKE	Attack err	Lauren Medeck	blk Kami Stover, Josie Noble	+0.7
11	5-6	MILWKE	SO DAK	Serve err	MILWKE server		+0.4
12	6-6	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Kami Stover	set Emma Duffy	+0.5
13	6-7	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Avery Van Hook	+0.4
14	6-8	SO DAK	SO DAK	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Ella Schuetz	+0.6
15	7-8	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Schuetz	set Emma Duffy	+0.4
16	7-9	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Avery Van Hook	set Lauren Medeck	+0.4
17	8-9	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Milica Tomic	set Ella Schuetz	+0.4
18	8-10	MILWKE	SO DAK	Serve err	MILWKE server		+0.4
19	8-11	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Annie Eschenbach	blk Gabi Zachariasen, Amanda Loschen	+0.5
20	9-11	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Parker	set Milica Tomic	+0.3
21	9-12	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.3
22	10-12	SO DAK	MILWKE	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+0.3
23	10-13	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.4
24	11-13	SO DAK	MILWKE	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.4
25	11-14	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Sierra Pokharel	+0.4
26	12-14	SO DAK	MILWKE	Attack err	Morgan Bode		+0.4
27	12-15	MILWKE	SO DAK	Serve err	MILWKE server		+0.4
28	13-15	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Emma Duffy	+0.4
29	13-16	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Avery Van Hook	+0.4
30	14-16	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Annie Eschenbach	set Kati Goba	+0.4
31	14-17	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Avery Van Hook	set Lauren Medeck	+0.4
32	14-18	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Annie Eschenbach	blk Gabi Zachariasen, Amanda Loschen	+0.5
33	15-18	SO DAK	MILWKE	Attack err	Amanda Loschen		+0.3
34	16-18	MILWKE	MILWKE	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+0.6
35	16-19	MILWKE	SO DAK×4	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.5
36	16-20	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.5
37	16-21	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Team	+0.3
38	16-22	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Josie Noble	blk Audrey Nelson, Amanda Loschen	+0.1
39	17-22	SO DAK	MILWKE	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.0
40	17-23	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
41	18-23	SO DAK	MILWKE×3	Attack err	Lauren Medeck	blk Josie Noble, Kami Stover	+0.0
42	19-23	MILWKE	MILWKE×3	Ace	MILWKE server	aced Team	+0.1
43	20-23	MILWKE	MILWKE×3	Kill	Josie Noble	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
44	20-24	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
45	21-24	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Josie Noble	set Emma Duffy	+0.1
46	22-24	MILWKE	MILWKE	Attack err	Morgan Bode		+0.3
47	22-25	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.5
Set 3
1	0-1	SO DAK	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
2	1-1	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Schuetz		+0.2
3	1-2	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
4	2-2	SO DAK	MILWKE	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+0.2
5	3-2	MILWKE	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Parker	set Emma Duffy	+0.3
6	3-3	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
7	4-3	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Josie Noble	set Emma Duffy	+0.2
8	4-4	MILWKE	SO DAK×3	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
9	4-5	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Kami Stover	blk Lauren Medeck, Morgan Bode	+0.3
10	4-6	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
11	5-6	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Josie Noble	set Emma Duffy	+0.2
12	5-7	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
13	5-8	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Ella Schuetz	blk Morgan Bode, Avery Van Hook	+0.2
14	6-8	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Emma Duffy	+0.1
15	6-9	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
16	6-10	SO DAK	SO DAK	Kill	Avery Van Hook	set Samantha Untiedt	+0.2
17	7-10	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Milica Tomic	+0.1
18	8-10	MILWKE	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Milica Tomic	+0.2
19	8-11	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
20	9-11	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Milica Tomic	+0.1
21	9-12	MILWKE	SO DAK	Attack err	Ella Parker		+0.2
22	10-12	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Annie Eschenbach	set Kati Goba	+0.2
23	10-13	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Sierra Pokharel	+0.2
24	11-13	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Josie Noble	set Emma Duffy	+0.2
25	12-13	MILWKE	MILWKE	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+0.3
26	12-14	MILWKE	SO DAK×4	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
27	12-15	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.3
28	12-16	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Ella Schuetz		+0.2
29	12-17	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
30	13-17	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Schuetz	set Emma Duffy	+0.1
31	13-18	MILWKE	SO DAK	Serve err	MILWKE server		+0.1
32	14-18	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Schuetz	set Emma Duffy	+0.1
33	14-19	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
34	15-19	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Milica Tomic	set Ella Parker	+0.1
35	15-20	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
36	16-20	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Bella Lipski	set Milica Tomic	+0.1
37	17-20	MILWKE	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Parker	set Liv Doerre	+0.1
38	17-21	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.1
39	18-21	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Josie Noble	set Milica Tomic	+0.1
40	19-21	MILWKE	MILWKE	Attack err	Lauren Medeck	blk Julia Kellner, Josie Noble	+0.3
41	19-22	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
42	20-22	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Ella Parker	set Kati Goba	+0.2
43	20-23	MILWKE	SO DAK	Bad set	Emma Duffy		+0.2
44	21-23	SO DAK	MILWKE	Kill	Josie Noble	set Emma Duffy	+0.1
45	21-24	MILWKE	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Avery Van Hook	+0.2
46	21-25	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Ella Schuetz		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Milwaukee first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.