Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026

Milwaukee def. St. Thomas (MN) 3–1

Milwaukee won at St. Thomas (MN) 3-1 (25-22, 18-25, 25-21, 25-22) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026. Ella Parker led Milwaukee with 10 kills; St. Thomas (MN)'s Anya Schmidt had a match-high 15.

Data through · final Sep 5

Set1234Sets
MILWKE251825253
STTHOM222521221

Win probability

St. Thomas (MN) above 50 · Milwaukee below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.6% MILWKErally 183 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.6% to Milwaukee — set 4, MILWKE 24-22 STTHOM. Kill by Josie Noble (set by Milica Tomic). STTHOM win probability 23% → 11%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MILWKE 16.0%84.0% STTHOM

Milwaukee wins

3-0
2.4%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
8.4%

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0
35.8%
3-1
31.1%
3-2
17.0%
MILWKE break %
40.3% vs this opp
STTHOM break %
47.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Josie NobleKill+12.6%

    Kill by Josie Noble (set by Milica Tomic)

    Set 4 · MILWKE 24-22 STTHOM · MILWKE 77% → 89%

  2. 02
    Reilly KurthAttack error+11.5%

    Attack error by Reilly Kurth

    Set 4 · MILWKE 22-20 STTHOM · MILWKE 69% → 80%

  3. 03
    Ella ParkerKill+10.6%

    Kill by Ella Parker

    Set 4 · MILWKE 25-22 STTHOM · MILWKE 89% → 100%

  4. 04
    Ella ParkerKill+10.5%

    Kill by Ella Parker (set by Milica Tomic)

    Set 4 · MILWKE 23-21 STTHOM · MILWKE 74% → 84%

  5. 05

    Kill by Annie Eschenbach (set by Milica Tomic)

    Set 4 · MILWKE 21-20 STTHOM · MILWKE 61% → 69%

  6. 06

    Kill by Ellie Gustafson (set by Morgan Kealy)

    Set 4 · MILWKE 18-18 STTHOM · STTHOM 33% → 41%

  7. 07
    Ella SchuetzKill+7.6%

    Kill by Ella Schuetz (set by Emma Duffy)

    Set 4 · MILWKE 20-19 STTHOM · MILWKE 60% → 67%

  8. 08
    Ella SchuetzKill+7.4%

    Kill by Ella Schuetz (set by Emma Duffy)

    Set 4 · MILWKE 17-14 STTHOM · MILWKE 70% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410737.08122210202113
48324.20802080052.512.5
47220.25010030052.59.5
48325.20000283010.58.5
41211-.09100020052.53.5
4305.6002000600003
4214.25000010010.52.5
4001.0001111300001
4000–010300001
4017-.14300000010.50.5
4000–000000000
4000–000010000
4000–000000000
4000–2001610000
4000–000000000
Team totals3919134.14936656070201093
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4151145.089132111111.519.5
413537.21610173010.513.5
412532.21920490010.512.5
46214.28642041200217
43518-.11100000233.56.5
45212.250000110216
4001.000133900003
41011.000000010001
4000–3131400001
4000–000000000
4000–001000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5530160.15650718636310890

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MILWKE · STTHOM 6

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 MILWKESTTHOM 4

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 MILWKESTTHOM 6

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 MILWKESTTHOM 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 MILWKESTTHOM 3

Bars above the line = St. Thomas (MN) leads, below = Milwaukee leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Milwaukee

SlotSideout %Break %
1
86%6/7
29%2/7
2
75%6/8
40%4/10
3
50%5/10
58%7/12
4
57%4/7
50%4/8
5
67%4/6
20%1/5
6
67%4/6
43%3/7
All
66%29/44
43%21/49

St. Thomas (MN)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%6/9
29%2/7
2
46%6/13
0%0/6
3
36%4/11
45%5/11
4
80%4/5
43%3/7
5
100%4/4
50%4/8
6
57%4/7
20%1/5
All
57%28/49
34%15/44

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

183 rallies

#MILWKE-STTHOMSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MILWKEMILWKE×5BlockedAnya Schmidtblk Bella Lipski, Annie Eschenbach+1.6
22-0MILWKEMILWKE×5KillElla Schuetz+1.7
33-0MILWKEMILWKE×5KillMilica Tomicset Ella Parker+1.8
44-0MILWKEMILWKE×5KillAnnie Eschenbachset Milica Tomic+1.9
55-0MILWKEMILWKE×5BlockedAudrey Koconblk Ella Schuetz, Bella Lipski+1.9
65-1MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.2
76-1STTHOMMILWKEBlockedAddie Schmotzerblk Bella Lipski, Annie Eschenbach+1.6
86-2MILWKESTTHOMServe errMilwaukee+1.3
97-2STTHOMMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbachset Milica Tomic+1.6
108-2MILWKEMILWKEBlockedAddie Schmotzerblk Josie Noble, Ella Parker+1.9
118-3MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.2
128-4STTHOMSTTHOMKillMorgan Kealyset Taylor Mcnear+1.7
139-4STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.6
149-5MILWKESTTHOMKillMorgan Kealyset Taylor Mcnear+1.3
159-6STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.8
1610-6STTHOMMILWKE×3Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.8
1711-6MILWKEMILWKE×3AceMilwaukeeaced Reilly Kurth+2.1
1812-6MILWKEMILWKE×3Attack errEllie Gustafson+2.0
1912-7MILWKESTTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+1.2
2012-8STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Anya Schmidt+1.7
2113-8MILWKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
2213-9MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.3
2314-9STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Schuetz+1.8
2414-10MILWKESTTHOM×4KillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+1.3
2514-11STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Ella Schuetz+2.0
2614-12STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Ella Parker+2.2
2714-13STTHOMSTTHOM×4AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Ella Parker+2.3
2815-13STTHOMMILWKEAttack errEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+2.2
2915-14MILWKESTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+1.9
3016-14STTHOMMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbachset Milica Tomic+2.3
3117-14MILWKEMILWKEBlockedMilica Tomicblk Josie Noble, Annie Eschenbach+2.9
3217-15MILWKESTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.9
3317-16STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+2.7
3418-16STTHOMMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbach+2.6
3518-17MILWKESTTHOMBad setElla Parker+2.2
3619-17STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Kati Goba+2.8
3720-17MILWKEMILWKEAttack errReilly Kurth+3.4
3820-18MILWKESTTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+2.0
3921-18STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.9
4022-18MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAudrey Kocon+3.0
4122-19MILWKESTTHOMBlockedJulia Kellnerblk Reilly Kurth, Ellie Gustafson+1.3
4222-20STTHOMSTTHOMKillAnya Schmidt+2.6
4323-20STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+3.3
4423-21MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.8
4524-21STTHOMMILWKEKillMilica Tomicset Ella Parker+3.5
4624-22MILWKESTTHOMServe errMilwaukee+1.4
4725-22STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+3.4
Set 2
11-0STTHOMMILWKEAttack errAnya Schmidtset Taylor Mcnear+2.1
21-1MILWKESTTHOM×4KillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+1.9
31-2STTHOMSTTHOM×4BlockedBella Lipskiblk Addie Schmotzer+2.4
41-3STTHOMSTTHOM×4Attack errElla Parker+2.2
51-4STTHOMSTTHOM×4KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+1.9
62-4STTHOMMILWKE×4Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.5
73-4MILWKEMILWKE×4KillJosie Noble+2.3
84-4MILWKEMILWKE×4KillMilica Tomicset Annie Eschenbach+2.6
95-4MILWKEMILWKE×4BlockedAnya Schmidtblk Josie Noble, Annie Eschenbach+2.9
105-5MILWKESTTHOMBlockedJosie Nobleblk Addie Schmotzer+2.2
116-5STTHOMMILWKEAttack errAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+2.4
127-5MILWKEMILWKEAceMilwaukeeaced Maddy Benka+3.3
137-6MILWKESTTHOM×6KillMaddy Benkaset Kira Brundage+2.4
147-7STTHOMSTTHOM×6Attack errJosie Noble+3.0
157-8STTHOMSTTHOM×6Attack errElla Parker+2.8
167-9STTHOMSTTHOM×6AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Ella Schuetz+2.6
177-10STTHOMSTTHOM×6AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Kati Goba+2.3
187-11STTHOMSTTHOM×6AceSt. Thomas (MN)aced Ella Schuetz+1.9
198-11STTHOMMILWKEBlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Josie Noble, Julia Kellner+1.4
208-12MILWKESTTHOMServe errMilwaukee+1.5
218-13STTHOM
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
229-13STTHOMMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Emma Duffy+1.1
239-14MILWKESTTHOMKillMorgan Kealy+1.2
2410-14STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+1.1
2511-14MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAudrey Kocon+1.8
2611-15MILWKESTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+1.6
2711-16STTHOMSTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+1.6
2812-16STTHOMMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbachset Milica Tomic+1.0
2912-17MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidt+1.3
3012-18STTHOMSTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+1.1
3113-18STTHOMMILWKEAttack errMorgan Kealyset Anya Schmidt+0.6
3213-19MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+0.8
3313-20STTHOMSTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Ellie Gustafson+0.6
3414-20STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+0.3
3515-20MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAddie Schmotzer+0.6
3615-21MILWKESTTHOM×3KillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+0.7
3715-22STTHOMSTTHOM×3BlockedElla Parkerblk Addie Schmotzer, Morgan Kealy+0.5
3815-23STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errJosie Noble+0.2
3916-23STTHOMMILWKEKillAddie Schmotzer·
4017-23MILWKEMILWKEAceMilwaukeeaced Ellie Gustafson+0.1
4117-24MILWKESTTHOMServe errMilwaukee+0.2
4218-24STTHOMMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Emma Duffy·
4318-25MILWKESTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+0.1
Set 3
11-0MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+2.6
21-1MILWKESTTHOMBall handlingElla Parker+1.9
32-1STTHOMMILWKE×3KillElla Schuetzset Milica Tomic+2.1
43-1MILWKEMILWKE×3KillElla Parker+2.9
54-1MILWKEMILWKE×3KillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+3.1
64-2MILWKESTTHOM×3BlockedElla Parkerblk Audrey Kocon, Addie Schmotzer+2.1
74-3STTHOMSTTHOM×3BlockedAnnie Eschenbachblk Anya Schmidt, Addie Schmotzer+2.7
84-4STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errBella Lipski+2.7
95-4STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+2.3
106-4MILWKEMILWKEAceMilwaukeeaced Anya Schmidt+3.1
116-5MILWKESTTHOM×3KillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+2.2
126-6STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errElla Parker+2.8
136-7STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillMorgan Kealy+2.7
147-7STTHOMMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+2.2
157-8MILWKESTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+2.1
168-8STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.3
178-9MILWKESTTHOMBlockedKati Gobablk Reilly Kurth, Ella Schuetz+2.2
189-9STTHOMMILWKE×4Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+2.4
1910-9MILWKEMILWKE×4AceMilwaukeeaced Ellie Gustafson+3.4
2011-9MILWKEMILWKE×4AceMilwaukeeaced Ellie Gustafson+3.7
2112-9MILWKEMILWKE×4BlockedEllie Gustafsonblk Bella Lipski, Kami Stover+3.9
2212-10MILWKESTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+2.6
2313-10STTHOMMILWKEKillBella Lipskiset Emma Duffy+3.2
2414-10MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAnya Schmidt+4.0
2514-11MILWKESTTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+2.5
2615-11STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+3.3
2716-11MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAudrey Kocon+3.7
2816-12MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+2.1
2917-12STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+3.0
3018-12MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAnya Schmidt+3.1
3118-13MILWKESTTHOMKillAddie Schmotzerset Morgan Kealy+1.6
3219-13STTHOMMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+2.4
3319-14MILWKESTTHOM×3Ball handlingElla Parker+1.4
3419-15STTHOMSTTHOM×3KillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+2.5
3519-16STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errElla Parker+3.3
3620-16STTHOMMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Emma Duffy+3.8
3720-17MILWKESTTHOMKillMorgan Kealy+2.5
3821-17STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+3.8
3921-18MILWKESTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.4
4021-19STTHOMSTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+4.2
4122-19STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+5.0
4222-20MILWKESTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+3.2
4323-20STTHOMMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbachset Milica Tomic+5.3
4423-21MILWKESTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+2.9
4524-21STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+5.6
4625-21MILWKEMILWKEBlockedAnya Schmidtblk Josie Noble, Annie Eschenbach+3.3
Set 4
11-0STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+3.2
21-1MILWKESTTHOMKillReilly Kurthset Morgan Kealy+2.9
32-1STTHOMMILWKEBlockedAudrey Koconblk Bella Lipski, Ella Parker+3.3
43-1MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAnya Schmidt+4.5
53-2MILWKESTTHOM×3KillAudrey Koconset Taylor Mcnear+3.2
63-3STTHOMSTTHOM×3Attack errElla Schuetz+4.0
73-4STTHOMSTTHOM×3BlockedAnnie Eschenbachblk Anya Schmidt+3.8
84-4STTHOMMILWKE×3Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+3.2
95-4MILWKEMILWKE×3Attack errAnya Schmidt+4.4
106-4MILWKEMILWKE×3Attack errAnya Schmidt+4.9
116-5MILWKESTTHOMServe errMilwaukee+3.5
127-5STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+4.0
138-5MILWKEMILWKEAttack errMorgan Kealy+5.3
148-6MILWKESTTHOMKillMorgan Kealy+3.6
158-7STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Audrey Kocon+4.8
169-7STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+4.3
179-8MILWKESTTHOMKillTaylor Mcnearset Morgan Kealy+3.8
189-9STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errKami Stover+4.8
1910-9STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+4.2
2010-10MILWKESTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Audrey Kocon+3.9
2110-11STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errBella Lipski+4.8
2211-11STTHOMMILWKEAttack errAnya Schmidtset Audrey Kocon+4.0
2311-12MILWKESTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+3.9
2412-12STTHOMMILWKE×4Serve errSt. Thomas (MN)+4.2
2513-12MILWKEMILWKE×4Attack errAddie Schmotzer+6.0
2614-12MILWKEMILWKE×4KillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+6.5
2715-12MILWKEMILWKE×4KillAnnie Eschenbachset Milica Tomic+6.7
2815-13MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+4.4
2915-14STTHOMSTTHOMAttack errElla Parker+6.1
3016-14STTHOMMILWKEServe errSt. Thomas (MN)+5.8
3117-14MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+7.4
3217-15MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+4.7
3317-16STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+6.7
3418-16STTHOMMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Kati Goba+6.5
3518-17MILWKESTTHOMAttack errElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+5.5
3618-18STTHOMSTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+7.6
3719-18STTHOMMILWKEAttack errEllie Gustafsonset Anya Schmidt+6.9
3819-19MILWKESTTHOMKillEllie Gustafson+6.3
3920-19STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+7.6
4020-20MILWKESTTHOMKillEllie Gustafsonset Morgan Kealy+7.0
4121-20STTHOMMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbachset Milica Tomic+8.5
4222-20MILWKEMILWKEAttack errReilly Kurth+11.5
4322-21MILWKESTTHOMKillAnya Schmidtset Morgan Kealy+6.9
4423-21STTHOMMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+10.5
4523-22MILWKESTTHOMKillAudrey Koconset Morgan Kealy+7.3
4624-22STTHOMMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+12.6
4725-22MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Parker+10.6

Score shown after each rally, Milwaukee first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).