FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeHORIZON

Youngstown St. def. Canisius 3–0

(25-13, 25-18, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CANISI	13	18	20	0
YSU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

YSU above 50 · CANISI below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Canisius — set 2, CANISI 13-9 YSU. Kill by Emma Isroff (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt). YSU win probability 97% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CANISI 2.2%97.8% YSU

Canisius wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.6%

3-2

1.4%

Youngstown St. wins

3-0

66.0%

3-1

25.6%

3-2

6.2%

CANISI break %: 36.2% vs this opp
YSU break %: 51.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emma IsroffKill+0.5%
Kill by Emma Isroff (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)
Set 2 · CANISI 13-9 YSU · CANISI 3% → 3%
02
McKenna CorcoranKill+0.5%
Kill by McKenna Corcoran (set by Kenslie Warmbrodt)
Set 2 · CANISI 12-9 YSU · CANISI 2% → 3%
03
Ava StrattonKill+0.4%
Kill by Ava Stratton (set by Isabelle Henry)
Set 2 · CANISI 13-11 YSU · YSU 97% → 98%
04
Madison CowanKill+0.4%
Kill by Madison Cowan (set by Anna Rich)
Set 2 · CANISI 9-6 YSU · CANISI 2% → 2%
05
McKenna CorcoranAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by McKenna Corcoran
Set 2 · CANISI 13-12 YSU · YSU 98% → 98%
06
YSU serverAce+0.4%
Youngstown St. ace on Madison Cowan
Set 2 · CANISI 13-13 YSU · YSU 98% → 98%
07
YSU serverService error+0.3%
Youngstown St. service error
Set 2 · CANISI 11-9 YSU · CANISI 2% → 2%
08
Ava StrattonKill+0.3%
Kill by Ava Stratton
Set 2 · CANISI 13-14 YSU · YSU 98% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Canisiusaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Julia LenikOH	3	9	3	22	.273	0	0	1	4	3	1	0.5	9.5
16Emma IsroffOH	3	9	3	18	.333	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9
5Madison CowanOH	3	7	8	25	-.040	1	0	1	6	3	1	0.5	7.5
9Emily HelmersMB	3	2	2	9	.000	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	4
20McKenna CorcoranMB	3	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
19Kenslie WarmbrodtS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
12Hannah KosOH	3	1	1	7	.000	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
11Brenda ReynagaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	14	0	0	0	1
17Azoria DavisOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0
4Anna RichS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	19	89	.124	28	1	9	37	9	10	5	51

Youngstown St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Kylie SurrattOH	3	11	5	25	.240	0	2	3	10	0	1	0.5	13.5
23Abbie HouseholderOH	3	9	1	18	.444	2	2	2	9	0	1	0.5	11.5
15Ava StrattonOH	3	7	2	17	.294	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
6Isabelle HenryMB	3	4	0	12	.333	1	2	1	2	0	3	1.5	7.5
21Korina BarberOH	3	2	1	9	.111	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
10Kameron BlizniakS	3	0	0	0	–	17	3	0	4	0	0	0	3
3Natalie CarrOH	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
2Ava PrinceS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
1Brie HabeebDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
14Wrigley TakatsMB	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Journey NicolaDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Makayla KeiblerMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	12	96	.271	37	9	7	36	1	10	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CANISI · YSU 6

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 CANISIYSU 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 CANISIYSU 6

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 5 CANISIYSU 4

Bars above the line = Youngstown St. leads, below = Canisius leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Canisius

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	14%1/7
2	43%6/14	13%1/8
3	43%6/14	33%3/9
4	55%6/11	40%4/10
5	45%5/11	45%5/11
6	44%4/9	38%3/8
All	47%34/73	32%17/53

Youngstown St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%7/7	58%7/12
2	67%6/9	50%6/12
3	86%6/7	68%13/19
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	67%6/9	50%6/12
6	56%5/9	44%4/9
All	68%36/53	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	CANISI-YSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CANISI	YSU×6	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
2	0-2	YSU	YSU×6	Attack err	McKenna Corcoran		+0.2
3	0-3	YSU	YSU×6	Ace	YSU server	aced Julia Lenik	+0.2
4	0-4	YSU	YSU×6	Ace	YSU server	aced Julia Lenik	+0.2
5	0-5	YSU	YSU×6	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
6	0-6	YSU	YSU×6	Attack err	Madison Cowan	blk Ava Stratton, Isabelle Henry	+0.1
7	1-6	YSU	CANISI	Serve err	YSU server		+0.1
8	1-7	CANISI	YSU×3	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
9	1-8	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Ava Stratton		+0.1
10	1-9	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.0
11	2-9	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
12	2-10	CANISI	YSU	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
13	3-10	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
14	3-11	CANISI	YSU×3	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Abbie Householder	+0.0
15	3-12	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Wrigley Takats	set Ava Prince	+0.0
16	3-13	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Emily Helmers		+0.0
17	4-13	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
18	4-14	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.0
19	5-14	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
20	5-15	CANISI	YSU×3	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Brie Habeeb	+0.0
21	5-16	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Azoria Davis	+0.0
22	5-17	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Madison Cowan	blk Ava Stratton, Isabelle Henry	+0.0
23	6-17	YSU	CANISI	Attack err	Ava Stratton		+0.0
24	6-18	CANISI	YSU	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
25	7-18	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Anna Rich	+0.0
26	8-18	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
27	8-19	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Natalie Carr	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.0
28	9-19	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
29	9-20	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.0
30	10-20	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
31	10-21	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Ava Prince	+0.0
32	11-21	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
33	11-22	CANISI	YSU×3	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.0
34	11-23	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.0
35	11-24	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.0
36	12-24	YSU	CANISI	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+0.0
37	13-24	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Wrigley Takats	blk Madison Cowan, Emily Helmers	+0.0
38	13-25	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	YSU	CANISI	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+0.2
2	1-1	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
3	2-1	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
4	2-2	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
5	2-3	YSU	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
6	3-3	YSU	CANISI	Attack err	Korina Barber	blk Julia Lenik, McKenna Corcoran	+0.2
7	3-4	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
8	4-4	YSU	CANISI×3	Serve err	YSU server		+0.2
9	5-4	CANISI	CANISI×3	Attack err	Natalie Carr	blk Emily Helmers, Hannah Kos	+0.3
10	6-4	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.3
11	6-5	CANISI	YSU	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
12	7-5	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.3
13	7-6	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.2
14	8-6	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.3
15	9-6	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Anna Rich	+0.4
16	9-7	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.3
17	9-8	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Hannah Kos	blk Kylie Surratt, Isabelle Henry	+0.3
18	10-8	YSU	CANISI	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Anna Rich	+0.3
19	10-9	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.3
20	11-9	YSU	CANISI×3	Serve err	YSU server		+0.3
21	12-9	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.5
22	13-9	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.5
23	13-10	CANISI	YSU×6	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.3
24	13-11	YSU	YSU×6	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Isabelle Henry	+0.4
25	13-12	YSU	YSU×6	Attack err	McKenna Corcoran		+0.4
26	13-13	YSU	YSU×6	Ace	YSU server	aced Madison Cowan	+0.4
27	13-14	YSU	YSU×6	Kill	Ava Stratton		+0.3
28	13-15	YSU	YSU×6	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Korina Barber	+0.3
29	14-15	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
30	14-16	CANISI	YSU	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
31	14-17	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Emily Helmers		+0.2
32	15-17	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
33	15-18	CANISI	YSU×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
34	15-19	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Natalie Carr	set Brie Habeeb	+0.2
35	15-20	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Natalie Carr	set Ava Prince	+0.1
36	16-20	YSU	CANISI	Serve err	YSU server		+0.1
37	16-21	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.1
38	17-21	YSU	CANISI	Bad set	Brie Habeeb		+0.1
39	17-22	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.1
40	17-23	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Azoria Davis	+0.0
41	18-23	YSU	CANISI	Attack err	Ava Stratton		+0.0
42	18-24	CANISI	YSU	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
43	18-25	YSU	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
2	1-1	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
3	1-2	CANISI	YSU×4	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
4	1-3	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
5	1-4	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Madison Cowan	+0.1
6	1-5	YSU	YSU×4	Attack err	Madison Cowan	blk Korina Barber, Ava Stratton	+0.0
7	2-5	YSU	CANISI	Serve err	YSU server		+0.0
8	3-5	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Madison Cowan	+0.1
9	3-6	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.0
10	3-7	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.0
11	4-7	YSU	CANISI×5	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
12	5-7	CANISI	CANISI×5	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.1
13	6-7	CANISI	CANISI×5	Attack err	Abbie Householder		+0.1
14	7-7	CANISI	CANISI×5	Kill	Julia Lenik		+0.1
15	8-7	CANISI	CANISI×5	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
16	8-8	CANISI	YSU×3	Kill	Natalie Carr	set Ava Prince	+0.1
17	8-9	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Julia Lenik	+0.1
18	8-10	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Madison Cowan	+0.1
19	9-10	YSU	CANISI×4	Serve err	YSU server		+0.1
20	10-10	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+0.1
21	11-10	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.2
22	12-10	CANISI	CANISI×4	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.2
23	12-11	CANISI	YSU	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
24	13-11	YSU	CANISI×3	Attack err	Natalie Carr		+0.2
25	14-11	CANISI	CANISI×3	Attack err	Kylie Surratt	blk Emily Helmers, Hannah Kos	+0.2
26	15-11	CANISI	CANISI×3	Attack err	Kylie Surratt	blk Hannah Kos, Emily Helmers	+0.3
27	15-12	CANISI	YSU×4	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
28	15-13	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
29	15-14	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Azoria Davis	+0.2
30	15-15	YSU	YSU×4	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.2
31	16-15	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.2
32	16-16	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
33	17-16	YSU	CANISI	Serve err	YSU server		+0.2
34	17-17	CANISI	YSU×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
35	17-18	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff	blk Korina Barber, Abbie Householder	+0.2
36	17-19	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.2
37	18-19	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.1
38	18-20	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Abbie Householder	+0.1
39	18-21	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.1
40	19-21	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
41	19-22	CANISI	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Ava Prince	+0.1
42	20-22	YSU	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
43	20-23	CANISI	YSU×3	Kill	Korina Barber	set Ava Prince	+0.1
44	20-24	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.1
45	20-25	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Ava Prince	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Canisius first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.