FinalThu, Sep 3, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Butler def. Youngstown St. 3–0

(25-19, 25-12, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
YSU	19	12	21	0
BUTLER	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BUTLER above 50 · YSU below

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Butler — set 1, YSU 18-20 BUTLER. Kill by Elise Ward (set by Kaylee Finnegan). BUTLER win probability 77% → 81%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

YSU 24.5%75.5% BUTLER

Youngstown St. wins

3-0

4.3%

3-1

8.4%

3-2

11.8%

Butler wins

3-0

27.5%

3-1

28.8%

3-2

19.2%

YSU break %: 38.9% vs this opp
BUTLER break %: 44.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Elise WardKill+3.6%
Kill by Elise Ward (set by Kaylee Finnegan)
Set 1 · YSU 18-20 BUTLER · BUTLER 77% → 81%
02
Ava StrattonAttack error+2.9%
Attack error by Ava Stratton
Set 1 · YSU 18-21 BUTLER · BUTLER 81% → 84%
03
Elise WardAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Elise Ward
Set 1 · YSU 13-13 BUTLER · YSU 22% → 25%
04
Zoe McDonaldKill+2.7%
Kill by Zoe McDonald (set by Kaylee Finnegan)
Set 1 · YSU 18-19 BUTLER · BUTLER 74% → 77%
05
BUTLER serverService error+2.6%
Butler service error
Set 1 · YSU 18-18 BUTLER · YSU 23% → 26%
06
Raegan DurbinKill+2.5%
Kill by Raegan Durbin (set by Kaylee Finnegan)
Set 1 · YSU 17-18 BUTLER · BUTLER 74% → 77%
07
Ava StrattonKill+2.5%
Kill by Ava Stratton (set by Kameron Blizniak)
Set 1 · YSU 17-17 BUTLER · YSU 23% → 26%
08
Maria NixKill+2.4%
Kill by Maria Nix (set by Sarah Kempf)
Set 1 · YSU 16-17 BUTLER · BUTLER 75% → 77%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Youngstown St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Layne GrafficeOH	3	4	6	20	-.100	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	2	7
15Ava StrattonOH	3	6	3	12	.250	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	7
21Korina BarberOH	3	3	2	14	.071	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
6Isabelle HenryMB	3	1	0	4	.250	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
16Kylie SurrattOH	3	2	4	20	-.100	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
10Kameron BlizniakS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Abbie HouseholderOH	3	5	2	15	.200	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	5
2Ava PrinceS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Brie HabeebDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
9Journey NicolaDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
20Hayden RodriguezS	2	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
14Wrigley TakatsMB	1	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
5Teagan NgOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		22	18	89	.045	22	3	2	28	4	2	6	5	52

Butlerhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Elise WardOH	3	12	2	21	.476	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12
13Carly SlusserMB	3	9	0	11	.818	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
11Sawyer JonesOH	3	7	6	20	.050	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
8Raegan DurbinOH	3	6	2	15	.267	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	6
9Kaylee FinneganS	3	0	0	0	–	22	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
17Zoe McDonaldMB	1	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
10Maria NixOH	3	5	0	7	.714	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
5Jersey LoyerDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	3	4	15	0	0	0	3
1Sarah KempfS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
14Karen DutroMB	2	7	1	11	.545	1	1	2	2	0	1	0.5	8.5
3Chase LemmingOH	2	3	4	10	-.100	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3
18Marin ThaxtonDS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	17	102	.324	45	4	9	43	3	8	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 YSU · BUTLER 8

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 2 YSUBUTLER 6

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 2 YSUBUTLER 8

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 7 YSUBUTLER 5

Bars above the line = Butler leads, below = Youngstown St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Youngstown St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	0%0/5
2	41%7/17	46%6/13
3	41%7/17	22%2/9
4	71%5/7	36%4/11
5	56%5/9	38%3/8
6	36%4/11	29%2/7
All	47%35/74	32%17/53

Butler

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	50%6/12
2	78%7/9	30%3/10
3	70%7/10	73%19/26
4	67%6/9	14%1/7
5	71%5/7	44%4/9
6	80%4/5	60%6/10
All	68%36/53	53%39/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	YSU-BUTLER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BUTLER	YSU	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+1.5
2	1-1	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.4
3	2-1	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.5
4	2-2	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.4
5	3-2	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.6
6	4-2	YSU	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Ava Prince	+2.3
7	4-3	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.5
8	4-4	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Abbie Householder	blk Carly Slusser, Maria Nix	+2.2
9	5-4	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+1.7
10	5-5	YSU	BUTLER×3	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Sarah Kempf	+1.6
11	5-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+2.2
12	5-7	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+2.0
13	6-7	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+1.4
14	7-7	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Raegan Durbin		+2.3
15	7-8	YSU	BUTLER	Attack err	Abbie Householder		+1.6
16	8-8	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Ava Prince	+1.7
17	8-9	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Jersey Loyer	+1.7
18	8-10	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+2.2
19	9-10	BUTLER	YSU	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+1.6
20	9-11	YSU	BUTLER	Attack err	Layne Graffice	blk Sawyer Jones, Zoe McDonald	+1.6
21	9-12	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Layne Graffice	blk Sawyer Jones, Zoe McDonald	+2.0
22	10-12	BUTLER	YSU	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+1.3
23	11-12	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Sawyer Jones	blk Layne Graffice	+2.3
24	11-13	YSU	BUTLER	Attack err	Layne Graffice		+1.7
25	12-13	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.7
26	13-13	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Elise Ward		+2.8
27	13-14	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.0
28	14-14	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.1
29	14-15	YSU	BUTLER	Serve err	YSU server		+2.1
30	15-15	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Ava Prince	+2.2
31	15-16	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+2.2
32	16-16	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.3
33	16-17	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+2.4
34	17-17	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.5
35	17-18	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.5
36	18-18	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.6
37	18-19	YSU	BUTLER×6	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.7
38	18-20	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+3.6
39	18-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Attack err	Ava Stratton		+2.9
40	18-22	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Jersey Loyer	+1.9
41	18-23	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.0
42	18-24	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+0.3
43	19-24	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.0
44	19-25	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	YSU	BUTLER×3	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.0
2	0-2	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Jersey Loyer	+1.4
3	0-3	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Layne Graffice		+1.3
4	1-3	BUTLER	YSU	Bad set	Kaylee Finnegan		+0.9
5	1-4	YSU	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.9
6	1-5	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Jersey Loyer	+1.1
7	1-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Ava Prince	+1.0
8	2-6	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.6
9	2-7	YSU	BUTLER	Bad set	Brie Habeeb		+0.7
10	3-7	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Ava Prince	+0.6
11	4-7	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Raegan Durbin	+1.1
12	4-8	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Sarah Kempf	+0.8
13	4-9	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming		+1.0
14	5-9	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.6
15	6-9	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+1.1
16	6-10	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+0.9
17	6-11	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Karen Dutro	+1.0
18	7-11	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.6
19	8-11	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Elise Ward	+1.1
20	8-12	YSU	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Sarah Kempf	+0.9
21	8-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.0
22	8-14	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Ava Stratton		+0.8
23	9-14	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.4
24	9-15	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.5
25	10-15	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Ava Prince	+0.4
26	10-16	YSU	BUTLER×8	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.5
27	10-17	BUTLER	BUTLER×8	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+0.5
28	10-18	BUTLER	BUTLER×8	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.3
29	10-19	BUTLER	BUTLER×8	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Brie Habeeb	+0.2
30	10-20	BUTLER	BUTLER×8	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.1
31	10-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×8	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.0
32	10-22	BUTLER	BUTLER×8	Kill	Elise Ward	set Raegan Durbin	+0.0
33	10-23	BUTLER	BUTLER×8	Attack err	Kylie Surratt	blk Sawyer Jones, Karen Dutro	+0.0
34	11-23	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.0
35	11-24	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.0
36	12-24	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Journey Nicola	+0.0
37	12-25	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Sarah Kempf	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	BUTLER	YSU×7	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+0.6
2	2-0	YSU	YSU×7	Ace	YSU server	aced Chase Lemming	+0.9
3	3-0	YSU	YSU×7	Attack err	Sawyer Jones	blk Wrigley Takats, Korina Barber	+0.9
4	4-0	YSU	YSU×7	Kill	Wrigley Takats	set Ava Prince	+0.9
5	5-0	YSU	YSU×7	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+0.9
6	6-0	YSU	YSU×7	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Ava Prince	+0.8
7	7-0	YSU	YSU×7	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+0.8
8	7-1	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.4
9	8-1	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+0.5
10	9-1	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+0.6
11	9-2	YSU	BUTLER×3	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.3
12	9-3	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Wrigley Takats		+0.6
13	9-4	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Jersey Loyer	+0.7
14	10-4	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Abbie Householder	set Ava Prince	+0.6
15	11-4	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Chase Lemming	blk Ava Stratton, Isabelle Henry	+0.7
16	11-5	YSU	BUTLER	Serve err	YSU server		+0.4
17	12-5	BUTLER	YSU×3	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.5
18	13-5	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+0.6
19	14-5	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Karen Dutro	blk Layne Graffice	+0.4
20	14-6	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+0.2
21	14-7	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Layne Graffice		+0.4
22	15-7	BUTLER	YSU	Attack err	Raegan Durbin	blk Ava Stratton, Isabelle Henry	+0.4
23	15-8	YSU	BUTLER×5	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Sarah Kempf	+0.2
24	15-9	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Korina Barber		+0.5
25	15-10	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Ava Stratton		+0.6
26	15-11	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Sarah Kempf	+0.8
27	15-12	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Team	+0.9
28	16-12	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.9
29	16-13	YSU	BUTLER×4	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+0.7
30	16-14	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Carly Slusser		+1.1
31	16-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Attack err	Korina Barber		+1.3
32	16-16	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.4
33	17-16	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+1.1
34	17-17	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Marin Thaxton	+1.0
35	18-17	BUTLER	YSU	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+1.2
36	18-18	YSU	BUTLER×4	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.1
37	18-19	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Sawyer Jones		+1.6
38	18-20	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Abbie Householder	+1.5
39	18-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Abbie Householder	+1.2
40	19-21	BUTLER	YSU	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.6
41	19-22	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.9
42	20-22	BUTLER	YSU	Attack err	Elise Ward		+0.6
43	20-23	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+0.9
44	21-23	BUTLER	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.5
45	21-24	YSU	BUTLER	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Sarah Kempf	+0.9
46	21-25	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Layne Graffice		+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Youngstown St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.