Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayHORIZON

1:3

HomeOVC

Southern Ind. def. Youngstown St. 3–1

(25-20, 25-23, 21-25, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
YSU	20	23	25	18	1
S IND	25	25	21	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S IND above 50 · YSU below

Biggest swing: 5.8% to Southern Ind. — set 2, YSU 23-25 S IND. Kill by Ashby Willis (set by Aysa Thomas). S IND win probability 87% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

YSU 34.9%65.1% S IND

Youngstown St. wins

3-0

7.1%

3-1

12.5%

3-2

15.3%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0

20.1%

3-1

25.0%

3-2

20.0%

YSU break %: 42.5% vs this opp
S IND break %: 45.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ashby WillisKill+5.8%
Kill by Ashby Willis (set by Aysa Thomas)
Set 2 · YSU 23-25 S IND · S IND 87% → 93%
02
Carley WrightKill+5.7%
Kill by Carley Wright (set by Aysa Thomas)
Set 2 · YSU 22-24 S IND · S IND 84% → 89%
03
Kylie SurrattKill+5.1%
Kill by Kylie Surratt (set by Kameron Blizniak)
Set 2 · YSU 22-22 S IND · YSU 16% → 21%
04
Ashby WillisKill+4.8%
Kill by Ashby Willis (set by Aysa Thomas)
Set 2 · YSU 22-23 S IND · S IND 79% → 84%
05
Isabelle HenryAttack error+4.3%
Attack error by Isabelle Henry
Set 2 · YSU 20-22 S IND · S IND 83% → 87%
06
Kylie SurrattKill+4.1%
Kill by Kylie Surratt (set by Kameron Blizniak)
Set 2 · YSU 20-20 S IND · YSU 17% → 21%
07
Leah ColemanKill+3.6%
Kill by Leah Coleman (set by Aysa Thomas)
Set 1 · YSU 16-18 S IND · S IND 68% → 71%
08
Layne GrafficeKill+3.6%
Kill by Layne Graffice (set by Kameron Blizniak)
Set 1 · YSU 16-16 S IND · YSU 32% → 35%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Youngstown St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Kylie SurrattOH	4	17	8	52	.173	0	3	6	5	2	0	0	0	20
22Layne GrafficeOH	4	17	6	59	.186	0	1	1	16	1	0	0	0	18
15Ava StrattonOH	4	8	3	25	.200	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	1	9
21Korina BarberOH	4	4	1	10	.300	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	6
10Kameron BlizniakS	4	0	0	5	.000	27	3	2	13	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
6Isabelle HenryMB	4	2	3	11	-.091	1	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
9Journey NicolaDS	4	0	0	1	.000	7	2	1	10	1	0	0	0	2
14Wrigley TakatsMB	2	1	1	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
8Juliana RiveraDS	2	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	7	1	0	0	0	1
2Ava PrinceS	2	0	0	0	–	10	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
1Brie HabeebDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
23Abbie HouseholderOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	22	170	.159	46	10	13	73	7	2	6	5	86

Southern Ind.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Carley WrightOH	4	18	3	43	.349	2	2	3	14	1	0	4	2	22
6Ashby WillisOH	4	17	4	39	.333	2	2	1	22	0	0	0	0	19
13Mackenzie NettlesOH	4	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
2Aysa ThomasS	4	3	0	13	.231	39	0	1	13	0	0	2	1	4
9Grace BachMB	4	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
4Kerigan FehrL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	0	2	1	7	6	0	0	0	2
22Leah ColemanOH	4	10	5	40	.125	0	0	0	5	0	2	2	3	13
5Audrey SmallL/DS	4	0	0	2	.000	8	1	3	19	2	0	0	0	1
17Aspen JankowskiS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		52	14	151	.252	51	7	10	83	10	2	16	10	96

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 YSU · S IND 7

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 4 YSUS IND 7

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 YSUS IND 4

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 YSUS IND 3

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 3 YSUS IND 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = Youngstown St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Youngstown St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%9/19	38%5/13
2	53%9/17	50%9/18
3	42%8/19	38%5/13
4	33%7/21	53%9/17
5	60%6/10	50%7/14
6	67%6/9	50%6/12
All	47%45/95	47%41/87

Southern Ind.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%10/18	33%4/12
2	73%8/11	53%10/19
3	50%8/16	62%13/21
4	47%7/15	53%8/15
5	50%7/14	63%12/19
6	46%6/13	33%3/9
All	53%46/87	53%50/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

182 rallies

Rally log

#	YSU-S IND	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	S IND	YSU×3	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.8
2	2-0	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.4
3	3-0	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+2.4
4	3-1	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+1.7
5	4-1	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Journey Nicola	+1.9
6	4-2	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+1.8
7	4-3	S IND	S IND	Ace	S IND server	aced Layne Graffice	+2.4
8	5-3	S IND	YSU	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.0
9	5-4	YSU	S IND×4	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+1.9
10	5-5	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+2.5
11	5-6	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+2.5
12	5-7	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	S IND server	aced Journey Nicola	+2.4
13	6-7	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.8
14	6-8	YSU	S IND×3	Serve err	YSU server		+1.9
15	6-9	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Juliana Rivera	+2.3
16	6-10	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+2.0
17	7-10	S IND	YSU	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+1.4
18	7-11	YSU	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
19	7-12	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.7
20	7-13	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+1.4
21	8-13	S IND	YSU×3	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.9
22	9-13	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.5
23	10-13	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Team	+1.9
24	10-14	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.7
25	10-15	S IND	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.8
26	11-15	S IND	YSU×4	Attack err	Carley Wright		+1.1
27	12-15	YSU	YSU×4	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+1.9
28	13-15	YSU	YSU×4	Bad set	Aysa Thomas		+2.4
29	14-15	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+2.9
30	14-16	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+2.5
31	15-16	S IND	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.4
32	16-16	YSU	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+3.6
33	16-17	YSU	S IND×7	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Audrey Small	+2.9
34	16-18	S IND	S IND×7	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+3.6
35	16-19	S IND	S IND×7	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+3.2
36	16-20	S IND	S IND×7	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Isabelle Henry	+2.5
37	16-21	S IND	S IND×7	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Ashby Willis	+1.7
38	16-22	S IND	S IND×7	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
39	16-23	S IND	S IND×7	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.4
40	17-23	S IND	YSU×4	Serve err	S IND server		+0.1
41	18-23	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.3
42	19-23	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.6
43	20-23	YSU	YSU×4	Attack err	Carley Wright		+1.2
44	20-24	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+1.7
45	20-25	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Layne Graffice	blk Mackenzie Nettles, Aysa Thomas	+0.7
Set 2
1	0-1	YSU	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
2	0-2	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+1.8
3	1-2	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Carley Wright	+1.4
4	2-2	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Leah Coleman		+2.0
5	2-3	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+1.5
6	3-3	S IND	YSU×3	Kill	Korina Barber	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.6
7	4-3	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.1
8	5-3	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Leah Coleman	blk Ava Stratton	+2.2
9	5-4	YSU	S IND×3	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
10	5-5	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+2.1
11	5-6	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Brie Habeeb	+2.1
12	6-6	S IND	YSU	Serve err	S IND server		+1.7
13	7-6	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Audrey Small	+2.3
14	7-7	YSU	S IND×4	Attack err	Isabelle Henry	blk Leah Coleman	+1.8
15	7-8	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+2.2
16	7-9	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Layne Graffice	blk Mackenzie Nettles, Aysa Thomas	+2.2
17	7-10	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+2.0
18	8-10	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Journey Nicola	+1.5
19	9-10	YSU	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.2
20	9-11	YSU	S IND	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.8
21	10-11	S IND	YSU	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.8
22	11-11	YSU	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Juliana Rivera	+2.5
23	11-12	YSU	S IND	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Ashby Willis	+2.0
24	12-12	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.1
25	12-13	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+2.1
26	12-14	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+2.6
27	13-14	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Journey Nicola	+1.9
28	14-14	YSU	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Journey Nicola	+2.8
29	14-15	YSU	S IND×3	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+2.3
30	14-16	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+2.8
31	14-17	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Ava Stratton	blk Leah Coleman	+2.5
32	15-17	S IND	YSU	Serve err	S IND server		+1.7
33	16-17	YSU	YSU	Bad set	Aysa Thomas		+2.8
34	16-18	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+2.4
35	17-18	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.3
36	18-18	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Leah Coleman	blk Isabelle Henry, Kameron Blizniak	+3.5
37	18-19	YSU	S IND	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+2.9
38	18-20	S IND	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+3.6
39	19-20	S IND	YSU	Serve err	S IND server		+2.5
40	20-20	YSU	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+4.1
41	20-21	YSU	S IND	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+3.6
42	20-22	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Isabelle Henry		+4.3
43	21-22	S IND	YSU	Serve err	S IND server		+2.8
44	22-22	YSU	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+5.1
45	22-23	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+4.8
46	22-24	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+5.7
47	23-24	S IND	YSU	Serve err	S IND server		+2.6
48	23-25	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+5.8
Set 3
1	0-1	S IND	S IND	Bad set	Layne Graffice		+1.1
2	1-1	S IND	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.9
3	2-1	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.2
4	2-2	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+0.9
5	3-2	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.9
6	3-3	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.9
7	4-3	S IND	YSU	Serve err	S IND server		+1.0
8	5-3	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Mackenzie Nettles	blk Korina Barber	+1.3
9	5-4	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+0.9
10	6-4	S IND	YSU×4	Serve err	S IND server		+1.0
11	7-4	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+1.3
12	8-4	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Journey Nicola	+1.2
13	9-4	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Journey Nicola	+1.2
14	9-5	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
15	10-5	S IND	YSU×4	Kill	Korina Barber	set Ava Prince	+0.9
16	11-5	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+1.0
17	12-5	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Carley Wright	+0.9
18	13-5	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.7
19	13-6	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.4
20	14-6	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.5
21	14-7	YSU	S IND	Attack err	Layne Graffice		+0.4
22	14-8	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.6
23	15-8	S IND	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.6
24	16-8	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+0.6
25	16-9	YSU	S IND×3	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.3
26	16-10	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Ava Stratton		+0.5
27	16-11	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Ava Stratton	blk Leah Coleman, Grace Bach	+0.7
28	17-11	S IND	YSU	Serve err	S IND server		+0.8
29	17-12	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
30	17-13	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Layne Graffice		+0.9
31	18-13	S IND	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.0
32	18-14	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
33	18-15	S IND	S IND	Bad set	Ava Prince		+1.2
34	19-15	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+1.3
35	19-16	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
36	19-17	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
37	20-17	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+1.6
38	20-18	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Carley Wright	+1.2
39	21-18	S IND	YSU×3	Bad set	Aysa Thomas		+1.7
40	22-18	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.6
41	23-18	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+1.0
42	23-19	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+0.3
43	24-19	S IND	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.6
44	24-20	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.2
45	24-21	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Layne Graffice	blk Carley Wright, Grace Bach	+0.5
46	25-21	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.8
Set 4
1	0-1	YSU	S IND×4	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+2.1
2	0-2	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	S IND server	aced Kylie Surratt	+2.6
3	0-3	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+2.4
4	0-4	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+2.2
5	1-4	S IND	YSU	Attack err	Carley Wright		+1.6
6	1-5	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+1.7
7	1-6	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Isabelle Henry	blk Carley Wright, Mackenzie Nettles	+2.0
8	2-6	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.4
9	3-6	YSU	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+2.1
10	3-7	YSU	S IND	Serve err	YSU server		+1.8
11	3-8	S IND	S IND	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Carley Wright	+2.0
12	4-8	S IND	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Kameron Blizniak	+1.4
13	5-8	YSU	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Journey Nicola	+2.1
14	5-9	YSU	S IND×4	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+1.9
15	5-10	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Korina Barber		+2.1
16	5-11	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Wrigley Takats		+1.7
17	5-12	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.3
18	6-12	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+0.8
19	7-12	YSU	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+1.4
20	7-13	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.3
21	8-13	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+1.1
22	9-13	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.8
23	9-14	YSU	S IND	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+1.7
24	10-14	S IND	YSU	Kill	Wrigley Takats	set Isabelle Henry	+1.4
25	11-14	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Grace Bach		+2.3
26	11-15	YSU	S IND×3	Serve err	YSU server		+2.1
27	11-16	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Kylie Surratt	blk Carley Wright, Grace Bach	+2.2
28	11-17	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Kylie Surratt	+1.6
29	12-17	S IND	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.9
30	12-18	YSU	S IND×3	Serve err	YSU server		+1.2
31	12-19	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Kylie Surratt	blk Leah Coleman, Mackenzie Nettles	+1.0
32	12-20	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Layne Graffice	blk Carley Wright, Mackenzie Nettles	+0.6
33	13-20	S IND	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
34	13-21	YSU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.4
35	14-21	S IND	YSU×3	Serve err	S IND server		+0.2
36	15-21	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Leah Coleman	blk Korina Barber, Wrigley Takats	+0.4
37	16-21	YSU	YSU×3	Attack err	Leah Coleman	blk Korina Barber, Wrigley Takats	+0.7
38	16-22	YSU	S IND×3	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
39	16-23	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Audrey Small	+0.5
40	16-24	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Abbie Householder	+0.2
41	17-24	S IND	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+0.0
42	18-24	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Audrey Small	+0.1
43	18-25	YSU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Youngstown St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.