FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayUAC-

3:0

HomeSUN-BELT

North Ala. def. Troy 3–0

(25-18, 25-22, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
N ALA	25	25	25	3
TROY	18	22	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TROY above 50 · N ALA below

Biggest swing: 7.3% to North Ala. — set 2, N ALA 24-22 TROY. Attack error by Isabella Ruether. TROY win probability 22% → 15%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

N ALA 53.4%46.6% TROY

North Ala. wins

3-0

14.0%

3-1

20.2%

3-2

19.3%

Troy wins

3-0

11.1%

3-1

17.3%

3-2

18.1%

N ALA break %: 40.8% vs this opp
TROY break %: 40.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Isabella RuetherAttack error+7.3%
Attack error by Isabella Ruether
Set 2 · N ALA 24-22 TROY · N ALA 78% → 85%
02
Kalina CalvilloKill+5.7%
Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Madison Marx)
Set 2 · N ALA 21-21 TROY · TROY 22% → 28%
03
Olivia KwiatkowskiAttack error+5.3%
Olivia Kwiatkowski stuffed by Phoebe Reyes Fortunato & Anna Hoffmayer
Set 2 · N ALA 23-22 TROY · N ALA 72% → 78%
04
Phoebe Reyes FortunatoKill+4.5%
Kill by Phoebe Reyes Fortunato (set by Kinslee McGowan)
Set 2 · N ALA 22-21 TROY · N ALA 72% → 77%
05
Kalina CalvilloKill+4.3%
Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Haley Nash)
Set 2 · N ALA 22-22 TROY · TROY 23% → 28%
06
Jenna KolostaAttack error+4.0%
Jenna Kolosta stuffed by Kalina Calvillo
Set 2 · N ALA 20-19 TROY · TROY 19% → 23%
07
Jenna KolostaKill+3.9%
Kill by Jenna Kolosta (set by Josephine Hensley)
Set 2 · N ALA 17-15 TROY · N ALA 75% → 78%
08
Isabella RuetherAttack error+3.9%
Attack error by Isabella Ruether
Set 2 · N ALA 25-22 TROY · N ALA 85% → 89%

Official NCAA box

Box score

North Ala.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Reese RickettsOH	3	10	3	28	.250	1	1	2	16	0	1	0.5	11.5
24Dylann GarnerOH	3	9	1	35	.229	1	0	0	9	0	2	1	10
16Anna HoffmayerMB	3	8	4	15	.267	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	10
6Phoebe Reyes FortunatoOH	3	6	2	21	.190	1	3	0	3	0	1	0.5	9.5
15Jenna KolostaMB	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Kinslee McGowanS	3	2	0	3	.667	32	0	3	8	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Ava MartindaleL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	21	1	0	0	0
3Ally GreenwellOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
21Kaylee MaikranzL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
5Lankford GurnerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Olivia FenoffOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	12	116	.241	37	4	7	63	3	10	5	75

Troyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kalina CalvilloOH	3	10	0	29	.345	0	2	3	2	0	1	2	2	14
2Isabella RuetherOH	3	5	9	22	-.182	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	6
6Olivia KwiatkowskiOH	3	4	3	25	.040	0	0	3	9	1	1	0	1	5
20Brooke ForkumOH	3	5	5	21	.000	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	5
9Ashlynn AxtellMB	3	4	1	14	.214	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	5
33Madison MarxS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	1	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
14Sophie OcampoOH	3	2	1	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Haley NashL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
24Josephine HensleyS	2	0	0	3	.000	10	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
23Kayla BaetzelDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Kenzly FooteL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
13Addison KerstingS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	19	125	.088	30	3	11	51	4	3	4	5	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 N ALA · TROY 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 7 N ALATROY 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 N ALATROY 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 7 N ALATROY 4

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = North Ala. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

North Ala.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	33%3/9
2	58%7/12	56%9/16
3	75%6/8	14%1/7
4	63%5/8	76%16/21
5	83%5/6	44%4/9
6	50%5/10	58%7/12
All	63%35/56	54%40/74

Troy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	54%7/13
2	44%7/16	36%4/11
3	56%5/9	30%3/10
4	28%5/18	44%4/9
5	31%5/16	17%1/6
6	100%5/5	29%2/7
All	46%34/74	38%21/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	N ALA-TROY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	N ALA	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Dylann Garner	+2.6
2	1-1	N ALA	TROY	Attack err	Dylann Garner		+1.7
3	1-2	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+2.7
4	2-2	TROY	N ALA×5	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	+1.8
5	3-2	N ALA	N ALA×5	Kill	Jenna Kolosta	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.7
6	4-2	N ALA	N ALA×5	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+2.7
7	5-2	N ALA	N ALA×5	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+2.5
8	6-2	N ALA	N ALA×5	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.3
9	6-3	N ALA	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+1.4
10	6-4	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Ava Martindale	+2.4
11	6-5	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+2.7
12	7-5	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+1.9
13	7-6	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+1.9
14	8-6	TROY	N ALA×7	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.0
15	9-6	N ALA	N ALA×7	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+2.8
16	10-6	N ALA	N ALA×7	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Anna Hoffmayer, Dylann Garner	+2.5
17	11-6	N ALA	N ALA×7	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.1
18	12-6	N ALA	N ALA×7	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+1.7
19	13-6	N ALA	N ALA×7	Attack err	Isabella Ruether	blk Anna Hoffmayer, Kinslee McGowan	+1.3
20	14-6	N ALA	N ALA×7	Ace	N ALA server	aced Team	+0.9
21	14-7	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.4
22	15-7	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
23	15-8	N ALA	TROY	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.4
24	16-8	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.6
25	16-9	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.3
26	16-10	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Jenna Kolosta		+0.8
27	17-10	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Jenna Kolosta	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.8
28	17-11	N ALA	TROY	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.5
29	17-12	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Reese Ricketts	blk Kalina Calvillo, Ashlynn Axtell	+1.1
30	18-12	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+1.0
31	18-13	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.7
32	19-13	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.0
33	19-14	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.6
34	19-15	TROY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Haley Nash	+1.4
35	20-15	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+1.4
36	21-15	N ALA	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.2
37	21-16	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.4
38	22-16	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.7
39	23-16	N ALA	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Ava Martindale	+0.4
40	23-17	N ALA	TROY	Attack err	Anna Hoffmayer		+0.1
41	24-17	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Haley Nash	+0.2
42	24-18	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
43	25-18	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.7
2	1-1	N ALA	TROY	Serve err	N ALA server		+1.7
3	2-1	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+1.7
4	2-2	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+1.7
5	3-2	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+1.8
6	4-2	N ALA	N ALA	Ace	N ALA server	aced Team	+2.6
7	4-3	N ALA	TROY×3	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+1.7
8	4-4	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Reese Ricketts		+2.6
9	4-5	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Anna Hoffmayer		+2.8
10	5-5	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.8
11	5-6	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+1.9
12	6-6	TROY	N ALA×5	Serve err	TROY server		+1.9
13	7-6	N ALA	N ALA×5	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+2.9
14	8-6	N ALA	N ALA×5	Kill	Kinslee McGowan	set Ally Greenwell	+2.8
15	9-6	N ALA	N ALA×5	Attack err	Isabella Ruether	blk Reese Ricketts, Jenna Kolosta	+2.7
16	10-6	N ALA	N ALA×5	Kill	Kinslee McGowan	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.4
17	10-7	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+1.4
18	10-8	TROY	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+2.5
19	11-8	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Jenna Kolosta	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.9
20	11-9	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+1.7
21	11-10	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato		+2.9
22	12-10	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.2
23	12-11	N ALA	TROY	Serve err	N ALA server		+2.0
24	12-12	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+3.3
25	13-12	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.4
26	13-13	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+2.4
27	14-13	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.5
28	14-14	N ALA	TROY	Attack err	Anna Hoffmayer	blk Isabella Ruether	+2.5
29	15-14	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+2.6
30	15-15	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+2.6
31	16-15	TROY	N ALA×4	Serve err	TROY server		+2.7
32	17-15	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Jenna Kolosta	set Josephine Hensley	+3.9
33	18-15	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+3.5
34	19-15	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+2.8
35	19-16	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+1.4
36	20-16	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+1.9
37	20-17	N ALA	TROY×3	Serve err	N ALA server		+1.3
38	20-18	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato		+2.9
39	20-19	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Jenna Kolosta	blk Kalina Calvillo	+4.0
40	21-19	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+3.5
41	21-20	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+2.9
42	21-21	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+5.7
43	22-21	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+4.5
44	22-22	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+4.3
45	23-22	TROY	N ALA×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Phoebe Reyes Fortunato, Anna Hoffmayer	+5.3
46	24-22	N ALA	N ALA×3	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+7.3
47	25-22	N ALA	N ALA×3	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+3.9
Set 3
1	1-0	N ALA	N ALA	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+1.6
2	2-0	N ALA	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.5
3	2-1	N ALA	TROY	Serve err	N ALA server		+1.0
4	3-1	TROY	N ALA×4	Kill	Jenna Kolosta	set Ashlynn Axtell	+1.1
5	4-1	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+1.5
6	5-1	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.4
7	6-1	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+1.2
8	6-2	N ALA	TROY	Bad set	Kinslee McGowan		+0.7
9	6-3	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+1.3
10	7-3	TROY	N ALA	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell		+1.0
11	7-4	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.9
12	7-5	TROY	TROY	Bad set	Phoebe Reyes Fortunato		+1.5
13	8-5	TROY	N ALA×7	Serve err	TROY server		+1.1
14	9-5	N ALA	N ALA×7	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+1.5
15	10-5	N ALA	N ALA×7	Attack err	Brooke Forkum	blk Anna Hoffmayer, Dylann Garner	+1.3
16	11-5	N ALA	N ALA×7	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+1.1
17	12-5	N ALA	N ALA×7	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.8
18	13-5	N ALA	N ALA×7	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.6
19	14-5	N ALA	N ALA×7	Ace	N ALA server	aced Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.4
20	14-6	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Addison Kersting	+0.2
21	14-7	TROY	TROY	Bad set	Ava Martindale		+0.4
22	15-7	TROY	N ALA×4	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.4
23	16-7	N ALA	N ALA×4	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.3
24	17-7	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
25	18-7	N ALA	N ALA×4	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
26	18-8	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Addison Kersting	+0.0
27	18-9	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Anna Hoffmayer	blk Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.1
28	19-9	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Anna Hoffmayer	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.1
29	19-10	N ALA	TROY×4	Serve err	N ALA server		+0.0
30	19-11	TROY	TROY×4	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.1
31	19-12	TROY	TROY×4	Attack err	Reese Ricketts	blk Kalina Calvillo, Ashlynn Axtell	+0.2
32	19-13	TROY	TROY×4	Ace	TROY server	aced Kaylee Maikranz	+0.3
33	20-13	TROY	N ALA	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.4
34	20-14	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.2
35	21-14	TROY	N ALA×3	Kill	Reese Ricketts	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.3
36	22-14	N ALA	N ALA×3	Kill	Dylann Garner	set Kinslee McGowan	+0.2
37	23-14	N ALA	N ALA×3	Ace	N ALA server	aced Haley Nash	+0.1
38	23-15	N ALA	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.0
39	24-15	TROY	N ALA	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
40	25-15	N ALA	N ALA	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, North Ala. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.