FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwaySWAC

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Troy def. Alabama St. 3–0

(25-15, 25-15, 25-11)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ALA ST	15	15	11	0
TROY	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TROY above 50 · ALA ST below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Troy — set 1, ALA ST 0-2 TROY. Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Madison Marx). TROY win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ALA ST 0.9%99.1% TROY

Alabama St. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.6%

Troy wins

3-0

74.7%

3-1

20.8%

3-2

3.6%

ALA ST break %: 34.5% vs this opp
TROY break %: 52.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kalina CalvilloKill+0.1%
Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Madison Marx)
Set 1 · ALA ST 0-2 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
02
Kalina CalvilloKill+0.1%
Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Madison Marx)
Set 1 · ALA ST 0-1 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
03
Alexis WilliamsKill+0.1%
Kill by Alexis Williams (set by Kamrynn Clay)
Set 1 · ALA ST 1-2 TROY · ALA ST 1% → 1%
04
TROY serverAce+0.1%
Troy ace on Team
Set 1 · ALA ST 1-4 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
05
Olivia KwiatkowskiKill+0.1%
Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Madison Marx)
Set 1 · ALA ST 1-3 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
06
TROY serverAce+0.1%
Troy ace on Mikalah Davis
Set 2 · ALA ST 0-1 TROY · TROY 100% → 100%
07
ALA ST serverAce+0.1%
Alabama St. ace on Team
Set 1 · ALA ST 4-7 TROY · ALA ST 1% → 1%
08
Alexis WilliamsAttack error+0.1%
Alexis Williams stuffed by Ashlynn Axtell & Olivia Kwiatkowski
Set 1 · ALA ST 1-5 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Alabama St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Alexis WilliamsMB	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
22Kaylen HinesMB	3	3	2	13	.077	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Lyric EdwardsMB	3	1	1	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
16Makeda EdwardsOH	3	1	4	16	-.188	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	1.5
14Kamrynn ClayS	3	1	1	3	.000	10	0	0	3	0	0	0	1
3Emani GreenDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
13Mikalah DavisOH	3	3	2	13	.077	0	2	2	1	3	0	0	5
11Julia SlaughterS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	3	0	0	0	1
9Mirra RiddleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	9	1	0	0	0
8Taylor WilliamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	0
21Amaya RobinsonOH	2	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
23Ava O'HareL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team totals		15	14	74	.014	15	3	6	24	12	8	4	41

Troyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kalina CalvilloOH	3	10	0	19	.526	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	11
6Olivia KwiatkowskiOH	3	9	3	20	.300	1	1	3	5	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
20Brooke ForkumOH	3	6	2	10	.400	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	6
14Sophie OcampoOH	3	6	1	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
9Ashlynn AxtellMB	3	3	0	10	.300	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
33Madison MarxS	3	0	0	1	.000	19	4	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
2Isabella RuetherOH	3	6	6	14	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
24Josephine HensleyS	3	0	0	0	–	14	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	2
11Haley NashL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	13	1	0	0	0	0
1Kenzly FooteL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
23Kayla BaetzelDS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Ella BroadheadMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Lainey WaserMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		42	12	85	.353	39	12	9	37	3	1	2	2	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ALA ST · TROY 7

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 ALA STTROY 7

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 4 ALA STTROY 4

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 2 ALA STTROY 6

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = Alabama St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Alabama St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	0%0/5
2	43%6/14	33%3/9
3	36%5/14	33%3/9
4	38%5/13	17%1/6
5	43%3/7	55%6/11
6	23%3/13	0%0/3
All	38%28/73	30%13/43

Troy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%6/6	78%14/18
2	55%6/11	57%8/14
3	86%6/7	33%3/9
4	56%5/9	69%11/16
5	57%4/7	60%6/10
6	100%3/3	50%3/6
All	70%30/43	62%45/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

116 rallies

Rally log

#	ALA ST-TROY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.1
2	0-2	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.1
3	1-2	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
4	1-3	ALA ST	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.1
5	1-4	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.1
6	1-5	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Alexis Williams	blk Ashlynn Axtell, Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.1
7	2-5	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.1
8	2-6	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
9	2-7	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Haley Nash	+0.1
10	3-7	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
11	4-7	ALA ST	ALA ST	Ace	ALA ST server	aced Team	+0.1
12	4-8	ALA ST	TROY	Attack err	Mikalah Davis		+0.1
13	5-8	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
14	5-9	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
15	6-9	TROY	ALA ST	Bad set	Josephine Hensley		+0.1
16	6-10	ALA ST	TROY×7	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
17	6-11	TROY	TROY×7	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.1
18	6-12	TROY	TROY×7	Ace	TROY server	aced Makeda Edwards	+0.0
19	6-13	TROY	TROY×7	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.0
20	6-14	TROY	TROY×7	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
21	6-15	TROY	TROY×7	Attack err	Alexis Williams		+0.0
22	6-16	TROY	TROY×7	Attack err	Amaya Robinson		+0.0
23	7-16	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Julia Slaughter	+0.0
24	7-17	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.0
25	8-17	TROY	ALA ST×3	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
26	9-17	ALA ST	ALA ST×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Lyric Edwards, Alexis Williams	+0.0
27	10-17	ALA ST	ALA ST×3	Kill	Lyric Edwards	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
28	10-18	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
29	11-18	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
30	11-19	ALA ST	TROY×3	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.0
31	11-20	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
32	11-21	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
33	12-21	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
34	12-22	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
35	13-22	TROY	ALA ST×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
36	14-22	ALA ST	ALA ST×3	Ace	ALA ST server	aced Haley Nash	+0.0
37	15-22	ALA ST	ALA ST×3	Ace	ALA ST server	aced Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.0
38	15-23	ALA ST	TROY×3	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.0
39	15-24	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Kaylen Hines		+0.0
40	15-25	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Kamrynn Clay		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Mikalah Davis	+0.1
2	0-2	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Makeda Edwards		+0.1
3	1-2	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Amaya Robinson	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
4	1-3	ALA ST	TROY×4	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.0
5	1-4	TROY	TROY×4	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.1
6	1-5	TROY	TROY×4	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell		+0.0
7	1-6	TROY	TROY×4	Ace	TROY server	aced Mirra Riddle	+0.0
8	2-6	TROY	ALA ST	Attack err	Amaya Robinson		+0.0
9	3-6	ALA ST	ALA ST	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.0
10	3-7	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.0
11	4-7	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
12	4-8	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.0
13	4-9	TROY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Haley Nash	+0.0
14	5-9	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Julia Slaughter	+0.0
15	5-10	ALA ST	TROY	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.0
16	5-11	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Makeda Edwards		+0.0
17	6-11	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
18	6-12	ALA ST	TROY	Attack err	Makeda Edwards		+0.0
19	7-12	TROY	ALA ST	Attack err	Brooke Forkum	blk Makeda Edwards, Lyric Edwards	+0.0
20	7-13	ALA ST	TROY×3	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
21	7-14	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Mikalah Davis	+0.0
22	7-15	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
23	8-15	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Makeda Edwards	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
24	8-16	ALA ST	TROY×4	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.0
25	8-17	TROY	TROY×4	Attack err	Lyric Edwards	blk Ashlynn Axtell	+0.0
26	8-18	TROY	TROY×4	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.0
27	8-19	TROY	TROY×4	Ace	TROY server	aced Mikalah Davis	+0.0
28	9-19	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
29	10-19	ALA ST	ALA ST	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+0.0
30	10-20	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
31	10-21	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Amaya Robinson		+0.0
32	11-21	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
33	11-22	ALA ST	TROY×3	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.0
34	11-23	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
35	11-24	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Haley Nash	+0.0
36	12-24	TROY	ALA ST×4	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Julia Slaughter	+0.0
37	13-24	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+0.0
38	14-24	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0
39	15-24	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Attack err	Isabella Ruether	blk Alexis Williams, Kaylen Hines	+0.0
40	15-25	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.0
2	1-1	TROY	ALA ST	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0
3	1-2	ALA ST	TROY	Bad set	Alexis Williams		+0.0
4	2-2	TROY	ALA ST	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0
5	2-3	ALA ST	TROY×4	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
6	2-4	TROY	TROY×4	Ace	TROY server	aced Taylor Williams	+0.0
7	2-5	TROY	TROY×4	Kill	Sophie Ocampo		+0.0
8	2-6	TROY	TROY×4	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
9	3-6	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
10	3-7	ALA ST	TROY×6	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
11	3-8	TROY	TROY×6	Attack err	Kaylen Hines		+0.0
12	3-9	TROY	TROY×6	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.0
13	3-10	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
14	3-11	TROY	TROY×6	Attack err	Mikalah Davis		+0.0
15	3-12	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
16	4-12	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
17	5-12	ALA ST	ALA ST	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0
18	5-13	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
19	5-14	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
20	6-14	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
21	6-15	ALA ST	TROY×5	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.0
22	6-16	TROY	TROY×5	Attack err	Makeda Edwards		+0.0
23	6-17	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+0.0
24	6-18	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
25	6-19	TROY	TROY×5	Ace	TROY server	aced Emani Green	+0.0
26	7-19	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Julia Slaughter	+0.0
27	7-20	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.0
28	7-21	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Kayla Baetzel	+0.0
29	8-21	TROY	ALA ST	Kill	Kamrynn Clay	set Emani Green	+0.0
30	9-21	ALA ST	ALA ST	Attack err	Kamrynn Clay		+0.0
31	9-22	ALA ST	TROY	Kill	Ella Broadhead	set Madison Marx	+0.0
32	10-22	TROY	ALA ST	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
33	11-22	ALA ST	ALA ST	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0
34	11-23	ALA ST	TROY×3	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
35	11-24	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Lainey Waser	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
36	11-25	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Ava O'Hare	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Alabama St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.