Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

1:3

HomeSEC

South Carolina def. Troy 3–1

(25-17, 25-16, 23-25, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
TROY	17	16	25	19	1
S CAR	25	25	23	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S CAR above 50 · TROY below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to Troy — set 3, TROY 24-22 S CAR. Troy ace on Team. S CAR win probability 92% → 89%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TROY 21.5%78.5% S CAR

Troy wins

3-0

3.6%

3-1

7.2%

3-2

10.7%

South Carolina wins

3-0

30.1%

3-1

29.8%

3-2

18.6%

TROY break %: 37.2% vs this opp
S CAR break %: 43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
TROY serverAce+3.0%
Troy ace on Team
Set 3 · TROY 24-22 S CAR · TROY 8% → 11%
02
Kalina CalvilloKill+2.8%
Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Haley Nash)
Set 3 · TROY 23-22 S CAR · TROY 5% → 8%
03
Kalina CalvilloKill+2.8%
Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Josephine Hensley)
Set 3 · TROY 25-23 S CAR · TROY 10% → 12%
04
Ally CavanaughKill+2.4%
Kill by Ally Cavanaugh (set by Kaia Pixler)
Set 1 · TROY 11-13 S CAR · S CAR 79% → 81%
05
Kiana DinnBad set+2.3%
Bad set by Kiana Dinn
Set 1 · TROY 9-9 S CAR · TROY 20% → 22%
06
S CAR serverAce+2.2%
South Carolina ace on Brooke Forkum
Set 4 · TROY 0-1 S CAR · S CAR 88% → 90%
07
Olivia BorgmanAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Olivia Borgman
Set 1 · TROY 2-0 S CAR · TROY 24% → 26%
08
S CAR serverAce+2.1%
South Carolina ace on Team
Set 4 · TROY 2-4 S CAR · S CAR 90% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Troyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kalina CalvilloOH	4	16	5	43	.256	0	1	6	4	0	3	1.5	18.5
2Isabella RuetherOH	4	10	4	28	.214	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	11
9Ashlynn AxtellMB	4	9	5	23	.174	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
6Olivia KwiatkowskiOH	4	8	5	25	.120	1	1	5	10	0	0	0	9
20Brooke ForkumOH	4	1	4	16	-.188	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	1
33Madison MarxS	4	0	0	1	.000	19	0	3	9	0	0	0	0
14Sophie OcampoOH	4	3	1	8	.250	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	5
1Kenzly FooteL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	2
11Haley NashL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	7	1	0	0	1
24Josephine HensleyS	4	0	0	0	–	13	0	2	10	0	0	0	0
23Kayla BaetzelDS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	24	144	.160	39	5	18	48	5	10	5	77

South Carolinahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Olivia BorgmanOH	4	17	3	33	.424	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	0	19
7Ava LeahyMB	4	9	1	18	.444	0	0	2	1	0	2	2	3	12
13Elise MarchalOPP	4	8	4	21	.190	0	0	0	3	0	0	7	3.5	11.5
5Sydney DavisMB	4	5	0	13	.385	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	4	9
10Madisyn CrnjacOH	4	2	1	7	.143	0	1	1	8	3	0	2	1	4
20Kiana DinnS	4	0	0	0	–	29	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
2Ally CavanaughOH	4	7	2	13	.385	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
14Kaia PixlerS	4	0	0	0	–	17	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
18Lilly GillespieL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	21	1	0	0	0	0
1Ceci VanceOH	3	3	5	16	-.125	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
19Elizabeth McElveenDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	16	121	.289	49	5	7	58	5	3	20	13	98

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 TROY · S CAR 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 2 TROYS CAR 5

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 TROYS CAR 6

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 7 TROYS CAR 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 3 TROYS CAR 3

Bars above the line = South Carolina leads, below = Troy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Troy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	48%10/21	36%5/14
2	32%8/25	17%2/12
3	62%8/13	11%1/9
4	57%8/14	33%4/12
5	62%8/13	33%4/12
6	73%8/11	58%11/19
All	52%50/97	35%27/78

South Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	79%11/14	44%8/18
2	89%8/9	65%15/23
3	73%8/11	50%8/16
4	62%8/13	53%9/17
5	89%8/9	20%2/10
6	36%8/22	38%5/13
All	65%51/78	48%47/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

175 rallies

Rally log

#	TROY-S CAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+2.0
2	2-0	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Olivia Borgman		+2.2
3	2-1	TROY	S CAR×4	Serve err	TROY server		+1.3
4	2-2	S CAR	S CAR×4	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+2.0
5	2-3	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+1.9
6	2-4	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Olivia Kwiatkowski	+1.8
7	3-4	S CAR	TROY	Serve err	S CAR server		+1.2
8	3-5	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+1.2
9	3-6	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kaia Pixler	+1.6
10	4-6	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+1.1
11	5-6	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Madisyn Crnjac	+1.8
12	5-7	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+1.3
13	6-7	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+1.3
14	6-8	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kaia Pixler	+1.3
15	7-8	S CAR	TROY	Serve err	S CAR server		+1.3
16	7-9	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+1.3
17	8-9	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+1.4
18	9-9	TROY	TROY	Bad set	Kiana Dinn		+2.3
19	9-10	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+1.6
20	10-10	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+1.7
21	10-11	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+1.6
22	11-11	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+1.7
23	11-12	TROY	S CAR×5	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+1.7
24	11-13	S CAR	S CAR×5	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Kaia Pixler	+2.4
25	11-14	S CAR	S CAR×5	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell	blk Ally Cavanaugh	+2.0
26	11-15	S CAR	S CAR×5	Ace	S CAR server	aced Team	+1.6
27	11-16	S CAR	S CAR×5	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Lilly Gillespie	+1.2
28	12-16	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.6
29	12-17	TROY	S CAR×4	Serve err	TROY server		+0.8
30	12-18	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Kaia Pixler	+0.8
31	12-19	S CAR	S CAR×4	Ace	S CAR server	aced Haley Nash	+0.5
32	12-20	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Kaia Pixler	+0.2
33	13-20	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Ava Leahy	+0.1
34	14-20	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Ceci Vance		+0.2
35	14-21	TROY	S CAR	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.2
36	15-21	S CAR	TROY	Serve err	S CAR server		+0.1
37	15-22	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.2
38	16-22	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
39	16-23	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.1
40	17-23	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
41	17-24	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+0.1
42	17-25	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+1.1
2	1-1	TROY	S CAR×4	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+1.0
3	1-2	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+1.4
4	1-3	S CAR	S CAR×4	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell		+1.3
5	1-4	S CAR	S CAR×4	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Ava Leahy, Elise Marchal	+1.2
6	2-4	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.8
7	2-5	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.8
8	3-5	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Kaia Pixler	+0.8
9	3-6	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.8
10	4-6	S CAR	TROY	Serve err	S CAR server		+0.8
11	5-6	TROY	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo		+1.4
12	5-7	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Kaia Pixler	+1.0
13	6-7	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+1.0
14	6-8	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Ceci Vance	set Lilly Gillespie	+1.0
15	7-8	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Brooke Forkum	+1.0
16	7-9	TROY	S CAR×3	Serve err	TROY server		+1.0
17	7-10	S CAR	S CAR×3	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo		+1.4
18	7-11	S CAR	S CAR×3	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo	blk Elise Marchal, Sydney Davis	+1.1
19	8-11	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.7
20	8-12	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.8
21	9-12	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.7
22	9-13	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.8
23	10-13	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.7
24	11-13	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Olivia Borgman		+1.3
25	11-14	TROY	S CAR×3	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kaia Pixler	+1.0
26	11-15	S CAR	S CAR×3	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+1.2
27	11-16	S CAR	S CAR×3	Ace	S CAR server	aced Brooke Forkum	+0.9
28	12-16	S CAR	TROY	Attack err	Ava Leahy		+0.5
29	12-17	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
30	13-17	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+0.5
31	13-18	TROY	S CAR	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo	blk Ally Cavanaugh, Sydney Davis	+0.6
32	14-18	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.4
33	15-18	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Ceci Vance		+1.0
34	15-19	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Sydney Davis	set Kiana Dinn	+0.9
35	16-19	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.7
36	16-20	TROY	S CAR×6	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.9
37	16-21	S CAR	S CAR×6	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+0.8
38	16-22	S CAR	S CAR×6	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Lilly Gillespie	+0.4
39	16-23	S CAR	S CAR×6	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+0.2
40	16-24	S CAR	S CAR×6	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+0.0
41	16-25	S CAR	S CAR×6	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	TROY	S CAR	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell		+0.5
2	1-1	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.5
3	1-2	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.5
4	2-2	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.5
5	2-3	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kaia Pixler	+0.5
6	3-3	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.6
7	3-4	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Ceci Vance	set Kaia Pixler	+0.5
8	4-4	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.6
9	5-4	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Ally Cavanaugh		+0.9
10	5-5	TROY	S CAR	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.6
11	5-6	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Ceci Vance	set Kiana Dinn	+0.9
12	6-6	S CAR	TROY×7	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.6
13	7-6	TROY	TROY×7	Attack err	Ceci Vance		+1.0
14	8-6	TROY	TROY×7	Attack err	Ceci Vance		+1.0
15	9-6	TROY	TROY×7	Attack err	Elise Marchal		+1.1
16	10-6	TROY	TROY×7	Bad set	Kiana Dinn		+1.1
17	11-6	TROY	TROY×7	Attack err	Ceci Vance		+1.0
18	12-6	TROY	TROY×7	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Brooke Forkum	+0.9
19	12-7	TROY	S CAR×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.4
20	12-8	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+0.8
21	12-9	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Sydney Davis	set Kiana Dinn	+0.9
22	13-9	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+0.8
23	13-10	TROY	S CAR	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo	blk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal	+0.6
24	13-11	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+1.0
25	14-11	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.9
26	15-11	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Madisyn Crnjac	+1.2
27	15-12	TROY	S CAR×3	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+0.6
28	15-13	S CAR	S CAR×3	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell	blk Ava Leahy	+1.1
29	15-14	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Kaia Pixler	+1.2
30	16-14	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Haley Nash	+1.0
31	16-15	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kaia Pixler	+0.8
32	16-16	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Kaia Pixler	+1.4
33	17-16	S CAR	TROY	Serve err	S CAR server		+1.0
34	18-16	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Madisyn Crnjac	blk Isabella Ruether, Sophie Ocampo	+1.6
35	18-17	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kaia Pixler	+0.9
36	18-18	S CAR	S CAR	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+1.5
37	19-18	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+1.2
38	19-19	TROY	S CAR×4	Serve err	TROY server		+1.1
39	19-20	S CAR	S CAR×4	Attack err	Brooke Forkum	blk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal	+1.7
40	19-21	S CAR	S CAR×4	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+1.5
41	19-22	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Sydney Davis	set Kiana Dinn	+1.1
42	20-22	S CAR	TROY×5	Serve err	S CAR server		+0.5
43	21-22	TROY	TROY×5	Attack err	Elise Marchal	blk Kalina Calvillo, Sophie Ocampo	+1.3
44	22-22	TROY	TROY×5	Attack err	Elise Marchal	blk Kalina Calvillo, Sophie Ocampo	+2.1
45	23-22	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+2.8
46	24-22	TROY	TROY×5	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+3.0
47	24-23	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+1.0
48	25-23	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+2.8
Set 4
1	0-1	S CAR	S CAR	Ace	S CAR server	aced Brooke Forkum	+2.2
2	1-1	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+1.5
3	1-2	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+1.5
4	2-2	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+1.6
5	2-3	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+1.5
6	2-4	S CAR	S CAR	Ace	S CAR server	aced Team	+2.1
7	3-4	S CAR	TROY	Attack err	Ally Cavanaugh	blk Isabella Ruether, Ashlynn Axtell	+1.4
8	3-5	TROY	S CAR×3	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kaia Pixler	+1.4
9	3-6	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Kaia Pixler	+1.9
10	3-7	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kaia Pixler	+1.7
11	4-7	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Olivia Kwiatkowski	+1.0
12	5-7	TROY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+1.9
13	5-8	TROY	S CAR	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+1.3
14	5-9	S CAR	S CAR	Attack err	Isabella Ruether	blk Sydney Davis, Madisyn Crnjac	+1.7
15	6-9	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Sydney Davis	+1.1
16	6-10	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Kaia Pixler	+1.2
17	7-10	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+1.1
18	7-11	TROY	S CAR×3	Attack err	Brooke Forkum	blk Madisyn Crnjac, Sydney Davis	+1.2
19	7-12	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Sydney Davis	set Kiana Dinn	+1.4
20	7-13	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+1.1
21	8-13	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.6
22	9-13	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Madisyn Crnjac	+1.2
23	9-14	TROY	S CAR×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal	+1.0
24	9-15	S CAR	S CAR×3	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell	blk Ava Leahy	+1.0
25	9-16	S CAR	S CAR×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Ava Leahy, Elise Marchal	+0.7
26	10-16	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.3
27	10-17	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.4
28	11-17	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.3
29	12-17	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Olivia Borgman		+0.7
30	12-18	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
31	12-19	S CAR	S CAR	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.6
32	13-19	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Haley Nash	+0.2
33	14-19	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Lilly Gillespie	+0.5
34	14-20	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
35	15-20	S CAR	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.3
36	15-21	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Kaia Pixler	+0.5
37	15-22	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Sydney Davis	set Kiana Dinn	+0.3
38	16-22	S CAR	TROY×3	Attack err	Elise Marchal	blk Kalina Calvillo, Sophie Ocampo	+0.1
39	17-22	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.3
40	18-22	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo		+0.6
41	18-23	TROY	S CAR	Serve err	TROY server		+0.7
42	18-24	S CAR	S CAR	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo	blk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal	+0.3
43	19-24	S CAR	TROY	Serve err	S CAR server		+0.0
44	19-25	TROY	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Troy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.