FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeSEC

Florida def. Troy 3–0

(25-20, 25-14, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TROY	20	14	16	0
FLA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

FLA above 50 · TROY below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Troy — set 1, TROY 15-16 FLA. Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Madison Marx). FLA win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TROY 1.3%98.7% FLA

Troy wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.9%

Florida wins

3-0

71.5%

3-1

22.7%

3-2

4.5%

TROY break %: 32.1% vs this opp
FLA break %: 48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Olivia KwiatkowskiKill+0.3%
Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Madison Marx)
Set 1 · TROY 15-16 FLA · TROY 1% → 1%
02
Isabella RuetherAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Isabella Ruether
Set 1 · TROY 15-18 FLA · FLA 99% → 99%
03
TROY serverAce+0.2%
Troy ace on Kira Hutson
Set 1 · TROY 18-20 FLA · TROY 1% → 1%
04
TROY serverAce+0.2%
Troy ace on Kira Hutson
Set 1 · TROY 9-10 FLA · TROY 1% → 1%
05
TROY serverService error+0.2%
Troy service error
Set 1 · TROY 15-17 FLA · FLA 99% → 99%
06
Alec RotheKill+0.2%
Kill by Alec Rothe (set by Taylor Parks)
Set 1 · TROY 19-22 FLA · FLA 99% → 99%
07
Kamryn ChaneyKill+0.2%
Kill by Kamryn Chaney (set by Taylor Parks)
Set 1 · TROY 18-21 FLA · FLA 99% → 99%
08
TROY serverAce+0.2%
Troy ace on Bella Lee
Set 1 · TROY 12-14 FLA · TROY 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Troyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Isabella RuetherOH	3	10	1	18	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10
7Kalina CalvilloOH	3	8	4	33	.121	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8
9Ashlynn AxtellMB	3	7	2	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
6Olivia KwiatkowskiOH	3	5	4	17	.059	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	5
20Brooke ForkumOH	3	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	2	1	1	0.5	1.5
33Madison MarxS	3	0	0	0	–	18	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
14Sophie OcampoOH	3	4	2	8	.250	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
11Haley NashL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	4	1	0	0	2
24Josephine HensleyS	3	0	0	0	–	10	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
23Kayla BaetzelDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
22Brooke DawsonDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Kenzly FooteL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		35	16	93	.204	33	3	6	29	4	2	1	50

Floridahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
25Alec RotheMB	3	10	0	11	.909	0	1	0	2	0	1	5	3.5	14.5
4Brooklyn BriscoeMB	3	11	1	14	.714	1	0	0	2	0	2	1	2.5	13.5
8Logan KingOPP	3	10	0	21	.476	2	1	1	2	0	0	2	1	12
7Kamryn ChaneyOH	3	6	1	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
20Taylor ParksS	3	4	0	7	.571	36	2	0	8	0	0	0	0	6
12Kira HutsonOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.5	0.5
14Jordyn ByrdOH	3	4	1	15	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Bella LeeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
3Emerson HoyleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Lily HayesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	14	0	0	0	0	0
2Brianna HolladayMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
24Lauren HardenOH	1	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
15Madi GravleeOH	1	1	1	3	.000	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		48	4	90	.489	44	4	7	37	3	3	14	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 2 TROY · FLA 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 2 TROYFLA 3

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 TROYFLA 5

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 2 TROYFLA 5

Bars above the line = Florida leads, below = Troy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Troy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	14%1/7
2	54%7/13	11%1/9
3	54%7/13	22%2/9
4	58%7/12	22%2/9
5	38%5/13	30%3/10
6	71%5/7	29%2/7
All	53%39/74	22%11/51

Florida

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	36%4/11
2	78%7/9	50%7/14
3	100%7/7	50%7/14
4	64%7/11	30%3/10
5	75%6/8	65%11/17
6	71%5/7	38%3/8
All	78%40/51	47%35/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	TROY-FLA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	FLA	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney		+0.2
2	1-1	FLA	TROY	Serve err	FLA server		+0.1
3	1-2	TROY	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
4	1-3	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Brooke Forkum	blk Logan King, Alec Rothe	+0.2
5	2-3	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.1
6	2-4	TROY	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
7	3-4	FLA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.1
8	3-5	TROY	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
9	4-5	FLA	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
10	4-6	TROY	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
11	4-7	FLA	FLA	Ace	FLA server	aced Team	+0.1
12	5-7	FLA	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
13	5-8	TROY	FLA	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+0.1
14	6-8	FLA	TROY	Serve err	FLA server		+0.1
15	6-9	TROY	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
16	7-9	FLA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
17	7-10	TROY	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
18	8-10	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.1
19	9-10	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Kira Hutson	+0.2
20	9-11	TROY	FLA×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.2
21	9-12	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo	blk Logan King, Alec Rothe	+0.2
22	9-13	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Brooke Forkum	blk Kira Hutson, Alec Rothe	+0.1
23	10-13	FLA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.1
24	10-14	TROY	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
25	11-14	FLA	TROY	Serve err	FLA server		+0.1
26	12-14	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Bella Lee	+0.2
27	12-15	TROY	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
28	13-15	FLA	TROY	Bad set	Taylor Parks		+0.1
29	13-16	TROY	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
30	14-16	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.2
31	15-16	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.3
32	15-17	TROY	FLA×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.2
33	15-18	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.3
34	15-19	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.2
35	16-19	FLA	TROY	Attack err	Kamryn Chaney		+0.1
36	16-20	TROY	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
37	17-20	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Kayla Baetzel	+0.1
38	18-20	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Kira Hutson	+0.2
39	18-21	TROY	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.2
40	19-21	FLA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.2
41	19-22	TROY	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.2
42	19-23	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Brooke Forkum	blk Brooklyn Briscoe, Jordyn Byrd	+0.2
43	20-23	FLA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
44	20-24	TROY	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
45	20-25	FLA	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TROY	FLA×3	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
2	0-2	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Kamryn Chaney, Alec Rothe	+0.1
3	0-3	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.1
4	1-3	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.1
5	1-4	TROY	FLA×4	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
6	1-5	FLA	FLA×4	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
7	1-6	FLA	FLA×4	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
8	1-7	FLA	FLA×4	Ace	FLA server	aced Brooke Forkum	+0.0
9	2-7	FLA	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.0
10	2-8	TROY	FLA×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
11	2-9	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Taylor Parks	set Bella Lee	+0.0
12	2-10	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
13	3-10	FLA	TROY	Serve err	FLA server		+0.0
14	4-10	TROY	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
15	4-11	TROY	FLA×5	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
16	4-12	FLA	FLA×5	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo	blk Brooklyn Briscoe	+0.0
17	4-13	FLA	FLA×5	Ace	FLA server	aced Haley Nash	+0.0
18	4-14	FLA	FLA×5	Kill	Jordyn Byrd	set Bella Lee	+0.0
19	4-15	FLA	FLA×5	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
20	5-15	FLA	TROY	Attack err	Jordyn Byrd	blk Sophie Ocampo, Brooke Forkum	+0.0
21	5-16	TROY	FLA	Kill	Jordyn Byrd	set Lily Hayes	+0.0
22	5-17	FLA	FLA	Kill	Taylor Parks	set Logan King	+0.0
23	6-17	FLA	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Kayla Baetzel	+0.0
24	7-17	TROY	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
25	7-18	TROY	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
26	8-18	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
27	8-19	TROY	FLA×3	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
28	8-20	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Taylor Parks	set Lily Hayes	+0.0
29	8-21	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Haley Nash	+0.0
30	9-21	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Kayla Baetzel	+0.0
31	9-22	TROY	FLA	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
32	10-22	FLA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
33	10-23	TROY	FLA	Kill	Madi Gravlee	set Logan King	+0.0
34	11-23	FLA	TROY	Serve err	FLA server		+0.0
35	12-23	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+0.0
36	12-24	TROY	FLA	Kill	Lauren Harden	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
37	13-24	FLA	TROY	Attack err	Madi Gravlee		+0.0
38	14-24	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Kayla Baetzel	+0.0
39	14-25	TROY	FLA	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	FLA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
2	2-0	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.1
3	2-1	TROY	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
4	2-2	FLA	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
5	3-2	FLA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
6	3-3	TROY	FLA	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
7	3-4	FLA	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Lily Hayes	+0.1
8	4-4	FLA	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
9	4-5	TROY	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
10	5-5	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
11	6-5	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Brooklyn Briscoe		+0.1
12	6-6	TROY	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
13	6-7	FLA	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
14	7-7	FLA	TROY	Serve err	FLA server		+0.0
15	7-8	TROY	FLA	Kill	Jordyn Byrd	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
16	7-9	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell	blk Brooklyn Briscoe	+0.1
17	8-9	FLA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
18	8-10	TROY	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
19	9-10	FLA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
20	9-11	TROY	FLA	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell	blk Alec Rothe	+0.0
21	10-11	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
22	10-12	TROY	FLA	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Kamryn Chaney, Alec Rothe	+0.0
23	10-13	FLA	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
24	11-13	FLA	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
25	11-14	TROY	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
26	12-14	FLA	TROY	Serve err	FLA server		+0.0
27	12-15	TROY	FLA×5	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
28	12-16	FLA	FLA×5	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo		+0.0
29	12-17	FLA	FLA×5	Kill	Taylor Parks	set Brooklyn Briscoe	+0.0
30	12-18	FLA	FLA×5	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
31	12-19	FLA	FLA×5	Bad set	Josephine Hensley		+0.0
32	13-19	FLA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
33	14-19	TROY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
34	14-20	TROY	FLA	Kill	Jordyn Byrd	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
35	14-21	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo		+0.0
36	15-21	FLA	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
37	15-22	TROY	FLA	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
38	15-23	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo	blk Brianna Holladay, Kamryn Chaney	+0.0
39	16-23	FLA	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
40	16-24	TROY	FLA	Kill	Brianna Holladay	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
41	16-25	FLA	FLA	Ace	FLA server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Troy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.