FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Troy def. Murray St. 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MURRAY	18	19	18	0
TROY	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TROY above 50 · MURRAY below

Biggest swing: 1.3% to Troy — set 1, MURRAY 16-15 TROY. Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Josephine Hensley). TROY win probability 92% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MURRAY 3.9%96.1% TROY

Murray St. wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.1%

3-2

2.4%

Troy wins

3-0

58.7%

3-1

28.6%

3-2

8.7%

MURRAY break %: 32.7% vs this opp
TROY break %: 45.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Olivia KwiatkowskiKill+1.3%
Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Josephine Hensley)
Set 1 · MURRAY 16-15 TROY · TROY 92% → 93%
02
Olivia KwiatkowskiKill+1.3%
Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski
Set 1 · MURRAY 16-16 TROY · TROY 93% → 94%
03
Kathryn TitusKill+1.3%
Kill by Kathryn Titus (set by Samantha Nelson)
Set 1 · MURRAY 12-7 TROY · MURRAY 9% → 10%
04
Anne MakowskiAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Anne Makowski
Set 1 · MURRAY 17-18 TROY · TROY 94% → 95%
05
MURRAY serverAce+1.3%
Murray St. ace on Team
Set 1 · MURRAY 11-7 TROY · MURRAY 7% → 9%
06
TROY serverAce+1.2%
Troy ace on Ada Tamturk
Set 1 · MURRAY 14-12 TROY · TROY 91% → 92%
07
MURRAY serverAce+1.2%
Murray St. ace on Olivia Kwiatkowski
Set 1 · MURRAY 10-7 TROY · MURRAY 6% → 7%
08
Mija Sagadin PristovnikAttack error+1.1%
Mija Sagadin Pristovnik stuffed by Sophie Ocampo & Brooke Forkum
Set 1 · MURRAY 14-11 TROY · TROY 90% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Murray St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Maezi SnyderMB	3	8	1	21	.333	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	2	12
14Mija Sagadin PristovnikOH	3	10	1	20	.450	0	0	3	1	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
17Anne MakowskiOH	3	6	5	16	.063	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	6
8Kathryn TitusS	3	1	1	3	.000	23	1	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
15Alexa WattsOH	3	2	2	14	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
5Lily BurnettOH	3	1	3	8	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	2
1Ada TamturkL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
3Samantha NelsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	3	2	0	0	0	0
12Ceren DurakOH	2	2	2	6	.000	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	3
2Paige BrockS	1	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Bailey KeuschDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	15	89	.169	28	4	10	26	7	2	4	4	55

Troyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kalina CalvilloOH	3	13	2	24	.458	0	0	2	1	0	3	1.5	14.5
6Olivia KwiatkowskiOH	3	11	2	20	.450	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	11
9Ashlynn AxtellMB	3	9	3	15	.400	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	10
2Isabella RuetherOH	3	7	2	17	.294	0	0	0	4	0	3	1.5	8.5
33Madison MarxS	3	0	0	1	.000	20	3	2	3	0	0	0	3
20Brooke ForkumOH	3	2	0	5	.400	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.5	2.5
11Haley NashL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	2	6	1	0	0	3
14Sophie OcampoOH	3	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	2.5
24Josephine HensleyS	3	0	0	0	–	15	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
23Kayla BaetzelDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
1Kenzly FooteL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
21Lainey WaserMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	10	87	.368	40	7	11	31	4	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MURRAY · TROY 8

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 MURRAYTROY 8

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 MURRAYTROY 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 2 MURRAYTROY 3

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = Murray St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Murray St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	38%5/13
2	64%7/11	33%4/12
3	41%7/17	22%2/9
4	88%7/8	22%2/9
5	46%6/13	13%1/8
6	43%6/14	0%0/6
All	56%41/73	25%14/57

Troy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	56%9/16
2	78%7/9	22%2/9
3	78%7/9	50%7/14
4	88%7/8	46%6/13
5	88%7/8	13%1/8
6	86%6/7	54%7/13
All	75%43/57	44%32/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	MURRAY-TROY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell		+0.6
2	1-1	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.4
3	2-1	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.5
4	2-2	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.4
5	3-2	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.5
6	4-2	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.8
7	4-3	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.5
8	4-4	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Lily Burnett		+0.7
9	5-4	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.5
10	5-5	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.4
11	6-5	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.5
12	7-5	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Ada Tamturk	+0.9
13	7-6	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.5
14	8-6	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.7
15	8-7	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.5
16	9-7	TROY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.7
17	10-7	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Olivia Kwiatkowski	+1.2
18	11-7	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Team	+1.3
19	12-7	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Kathryn Titus	set Samantha Nelson	+1.3
20	12-8	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.6
21	13-8	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.9
22	13-9	MURRAY	TROY	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.6
23	14-9	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.9
24	14-10	MURRAY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.6
25	14-11	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Sophie Ocampo, Brooke Forkum	+1.1
26	14-12	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Ada Tamturk	+1.2
27	15-12	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Kathryn Titus	+1.0
28	15-13	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.7
29	16-13	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+1.1
30	16-14	MURRAY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Haley Nash	+0.8
31	16-15	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+1.3
32	16-16	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+1.3
33	17-16	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+1.0
34	17-17	MURRAY	TROY×8	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.8
35	17-18	TROY	TROY×8	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+1.3
36	17-19	TROY	TROY×8	Ace	TROY server	aced Samantha Nelson	+1.0
37	17-20	TROY	TROY×8	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Kayla Baetzel	+0.7
38	17-21	TROY	TROY×8	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Ashlynn Axtell, Isabella Ruether	+0.5
39	17-22	TROY	TROY×8	Attack err	Kathryn Titus		+0.2
40	17-23	TROY	TROY×8	Ace	TROY server	aced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+0.1
41	17-24	TROY	TROY×8	Ace	TROY server	aced Samantha Nelson	+0.0
42	18-24	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
43	18-25	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TROY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.3
2	1-1	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.2
3	1-2	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.2
4	1-3	TROY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.3
5	2-3	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.2
6	3-3	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Isabella Ruether	blk Lily Burnett, Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+0.4
7	3-4	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.2
8	3-5	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.3
9	4-5	TROY	MURRAY	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.2
10	5-5	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell	blk Lily Burnett, Kathryn Titus	+0.4
11	5-6	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.2
12	6-6	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.3
13	6-7	MURRAY	TROY	Attack err	Lily Burnett	blk Kalina Calvillo, Sophie Ocampo	+0.2
14	6-8	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Lily Burnett		+0.3
15	7-8	TROY	MURRAY	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo		+0.2
16	7-9	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.2
17	7-10	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.3
18	8-10	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.2
19	8-11	MURRAY	TROY	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Isabella Ruether, Sophie Ocampo	+0.2
20	8-12	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.2
21	9-12	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
22	10-12	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.3
23	10-13	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.2
24	11-13	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.2
25	11-14	MURRAY	TROY×5	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.2
26	11-15	TROY	TROY×5	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.2
27	11-16	TROY	TROY×5	Bad set	Kathryn Titus		+0.2
28	11-17	TROY	TROY×5	Ace	TROY server	aced Bailey Keusch	+0.1
29	11-18	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.1
30	12-18	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Kathryn Titus	+0.0
31	12-19	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
32	12-20	TROY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
33	13-20	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.0
34	13-21	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.0
35	14-21	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
36	14-22	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
37	15-22	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
38	16-22	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.0
39	16-23	MURRAY	TROY	Attack err	Ceren Durak	blk Sophie Ocampo, Isabella Ruether	+0.0
40	17-23	TROY	MURRAY×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
41	18-23	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Ashlynn Axtell	blk Maezi Snyder	+0.0
42	19-23	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Haley Nash	+0.0
43	19-24	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
44	19-25	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.1
2	1-1	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
3	1-2	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
4	1-3	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Alexa Watts	blk Kalina Calvillo, Ashlynn Axtell	+0.1
5	2-3	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.1
6	2-4	MURRAY	TROY×3	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
7	2-5	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Maezi Snyder		+0.1
8	2-6	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Kayla Baetzel	+0.1
9	3-6	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
10	3-7	MURRAY	TROY	Attack err	Ceren Durak	blk Sophie Ocampo, Kalina Calvillo	+0.1
11	4-7	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
12	4-8	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
13	5-8	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.1
14	5-9	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.1
15	6-9	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
16	6-10	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.1
17	7-10	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.1
18	7-11	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.1
19	7-12	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.1
20	8-12	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.0
21	8-13	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+0.0
22	9-13	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.0
23	9-14	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.0
24	10-14	TROY	MURRAY	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
25	10-15	MURRAY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
26	10-16	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
27	10-17	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
28	11-17	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.0
29	11-18	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.0
30	12-18	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.0
31	12-19	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
32	13-19	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.0
33	14-19	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Brooke Forkum	+0.0
34	14-20	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.0
35	15-20	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.0
36	15-21	MURRAY	TROY	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.0
37	16-21	TROY	MURRAY	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo	blk Maezi Snyder	+0.0
38	17-21	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo		+0.0
39	17-22	MURRAY	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
40	18-22	TROY	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+0.0
41	18-23	MURRAY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
42	18-24	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
43	18-25	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Brooke Forkum	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Murray St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.