FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwaySOCON

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Troy def. The Citadel 3–0

(25-17, 25-18, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CITDEL	17	18	12	0
TROY	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TROY above 50 · CITDEL below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to The Citadel — set 1, CITDEL 1-1 TROY. Kill by Gwen Berry (set by Jess Martin). TROY win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CITDEL 0.8%99.2% TROY

The Citadel wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.5%

Troy wins

3-0

76.0%

3-1

19.9%

3-2

3.3%

CITDEL break %: 34.5% vs this opp
TROY break %: 53.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gwen BerryKill+0.1%
Kill by Gwen Berry (set by Jess Martin)
Set 1 · CITDEL 1-1 TROY · CITDEL 1% → 1%
02
Jordyn SimsAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Jordyn Sims
Set 1 · CITDEL 1-3 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
03
Rachel ReiningerKill+0.1%
Kill by Rachel Reininger (set by Greta Pleuss)
Set 1 · CITDEL 5-7 TROY · CITDEL 1% → 1%
04
Ashlynn AxtellKill+0.1%
Kill by Ashlynn Axtell (set by Madison Marx)
Set 1 · CITDEL 1-2 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
05
Isabella RuetherKill+0.1%
Kill by Isabella Ruether (set by Madison Marx)
Set 1 · CITDEL 0-1 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
06
Brooke ForkumKill+0.1%
Kill by Brooke Forkum (set by Madison Marx)
Set 1 · CITDEL 1-4 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%
07
Jordyn SimsKill+0.1%
Kill by Jordyn Sims (set by Greta Pleuss)
Set 2 · CITDEL 10-12 TROY · CITDEL 0% → 0%
08
Rachel ReiningerAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Rachel Reininger
Set 1 · CITDEL 5-9 TROY · TROY 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

The Citadelaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Luci LippelgoosMB	3	8	4	22	.182	0	1	4	1	0	2	1	10
17Jordyn SimsOH	3	7	1	17	.353	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	8
23Elizabeth MillerMB	3	2	0	9	.222	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
7Rachel ReiningerOH	3	2	4	26	-.077	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	2
6Greta PleussS	3	0	0	2	.000	19	0	2	3	0	3	1.5	1.5
5Gwen BerryOH	3	1	1	2	.000	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	1
22Emerson HillL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	8	0	0	0	2
10Jess MartinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	12	1	0	0	0
18Emma PastusicOH	2	1	4	8	-.375	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	1
2Cameron ReeseOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
24Sammie SabraOH	1	0	1	6	-.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
9Megan StoneL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		22	16	96	.063	21	3	12	41	3	10	5	47

Troyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Ashlynn AxtellMB	3	13	0	17	.765	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13
7Kalina CalvilloOH	3	7	3	32	.125	0	0	1	5	0	0	2	1	8
6Olivia KwiatkowskiOH	3	8	5	20	.150	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	0	8
2Isabella RuetherOH	3	7	3	16	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
20Brooke ForkumOH	3	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	2
33Madison MarxS	3	0	0	0	–	23	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
14Sophie OcampoOH	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	6
11Haley NashL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	1	3	13	0	0	0	0	1
24Josephine HensleyS	3	0	0	0	–	10	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
23Kayla BaetzelDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
22Brooke DawsonDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Addison KerstingS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Kenzly FooteL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Lainey WaserMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	13	102	.275	39	3	9	49	3	1	4	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CITDEL · TROY 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 CITDELTROY 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 CITDELTROY 3

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 3 CITDELTROY 5

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = The Citadel leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

The Citadel

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	33%3/9
2	43%6/14	0%0/7
3	28%5/18	50%6/12
4	38%5/13	17%1/6
5	80%4/5	29%2/7
6	50%4/8	50%4/8
All	42%31/73	33%16/49

Troy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	50%5/10
2	100%6/6	45%5/11
3	46%6/13	67%12/18
4	100%5/5	69%11/16
5	56%5/9	58%7/12
6	50%4/8	33%2/6
All	67%33/49	58%42/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	CITDEL-TROY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.1
2	1-1	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Gwen Berry	set Jess Martin	+0.1
3	1-2	CITDEL	TROY×6	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
4	1-3	TROY	TROY×6	Attack err	Jordyn Sims		+0.1
5	1-4	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.1
6	1-5	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
7	1-6	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
8	1-7	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
9	2-7	TROY	CITDEL×4	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo	blk Luci Lippelgoos, Jordyn Sims	+0.0
10	3-7	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Kill	Rachel Reininger	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
11	4-7	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Greta Pleuss	+0.1
12	5-7	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Kill	Rachel Reininger	set Greta Pleuss	+0.1
13	5-8	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+0.1
14	5-9	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Rachel Reininger		+0.1
15	6-9	TROY	CITDEL	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+0.1
16	6-10	CITDEL	TROY×3	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.1
17	6-11	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Emma Pastusic		+0.1
18	6-12	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Emma Pastusic		+0.0
19	7-12	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
20	7-13	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
21	8-13	TROY	CITDEL	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
22	8-14	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
23	9-14	TROY	CITDEL	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.0
24	10-14	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.1
25	10-15	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Haley Nash	+0.0
26	10-16	TROY	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Haley Nash	+0.0
27	11-16	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
28	11-17	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
29	11-18	TROY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
30	12-18	TROY	CITDEL×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
31	13-18	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Ace	CITDEL server	aced Brooke Forkum	+0.0
32	14-18	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Greta Pleuss	+0.1
33	14-19	CITDEL	TROY×5	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
34	14-20	TROY	TROY×5	Attack err	Rachel Reininger		+0.0
35	14-21	TROY	TROY×5	Bad set	Luci Lippelgoos		+0.0
36	14-22	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
37	14-23	TROY	TROY×5	Attack err	Rachel Reininger		+0.0
38	15-23	TROY	CITDEL	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+0.0
39	15-24	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
40	16-24	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
41	17-24	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Elizabeth Miller, Greta Pleuss	+0.0
42	17-25	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.1
2	0-2	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.1
3	1-2	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Emma Pastusic	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
4	1-3	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
5	2-3	TROY	CITDEL	Serve err	TROY server		+0.1
6	2-4	CITDEL	TROY×3	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
7	2-5	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Rachel Reininger	+0.0
8	2-6	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell		+0.0
9	3-6	TROY	CITDEL	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
10	3-7	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
11	3-8	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Jess Martin	+0.0
12	4-8	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
13	4-9	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
14	4-10	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Emma Pastusic	blk Kalina Calvillo, Sophie Ocampo	+0.0
15	5-10	TROY	CITDEL×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
16	6-10	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Ace	CITDEL server	aced Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.0
17	7-10	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo		+0.0
18	7-11	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
19	7-12	TROY	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
20	8-12	TROY	CITDEL×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+0.0
21	9-12	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Kill	Elizabeth Miller	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
22	10-12	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Greta Pleuss	+0.1
23	10-13	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.1
24	10-14	TROY	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
25	11-14	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
26	11-15	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
27	12-15	TROY	CITDEL	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
28	12-16	CITDEL	TROY×3	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
29	12-17	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell		+0.0
30	12-18	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Rachel Reininger		+0.0
31	13-18	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
32	14-18	CITDEL	CITDEL	Ace	CITDEL server	aced Team	+0.0
33	14-19	CITDEL	TROY	Attack err	Gwen Berry		+0.0
34	14-20	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Luci Lippelgoos		+0.0
35	15-20	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
36	15-21	CITDEL	TROY	Attack err	Luci Lippelgoos	blk Sophie Ocampo	+0.0
37	16-21	TROY	CITDEL	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Luci Lippelgoos, Greta Pleuss	+0.0
38	16-22	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
39	16-23	TROY	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
40	17-23	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Elizabeth Miller	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
41	17-24	CITDEL	TROY	Attack err	Emma Pastusic		+0.0
42	18-24	TROY	CITDEL	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
43	18-25	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	CITDEL	TROY×4	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
2	0-2	TROY	TROY×4	Bad set	Elizabeth Miller		+0.0
3	0-3	TROY	TROY×4	Bad set	Greta Pleuss		+0.0
4	0-4	TROY	TROY×4	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
5	1-4	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
6	1-5	CITDEL	TROY	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
7	2-5	TROY	CITDEL	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
8	3-5	CITDEL	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
9	3-6	CITDEL	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Haley Nash	+0.0
10	3-7	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Luci Lippelgoos	blk Kalina Calvillo, Sophie Ocampo	+0.0
11	3-8	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
12	4-8	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos		+0.0
13	4-9	CITDEL	TROY×5	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.0
14	4-10	TROY	TROY×5	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.0
15	4-11	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
16	4-12	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
17	4-13	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Haley Nash	+0.0
18	5-13	TROY	CITDEL	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
19	6-13	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Kalina Calvillo		+0.0
20	6-14	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
21	7-14	TROY	CITDEL×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski	blk Greta Pleuss	+0.0
22	8-14	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Attack err	Isabella Ruether	blk Elizabeth Miller, Jordyn Sims	+0.0
23	9-14	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0
24	9-15	CITDEL	TROY×3	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
25	9-16	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Cameron Reese		+0.0
26	9-17	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.0
27	10-17	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
28	10-18	CITDEL	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
29	10-19	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Sammie Sabra		+0.0
30	11-19	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Greta Pleuss	+0.0
31	11-20	CITDEL	TROY×3	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
32	11-21	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
33	11-22	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
34	12-22	TROY	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Jess Martin	+0.0
35	12-23	CITDEL	TROY×3	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.0
36	12-24	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Luci Lippelgoos		+0.0
37	12-25	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Addison Kersting	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, The Citadel first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.