FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Arizona St. def. Minnesota 3–0

(26-24, 25-17, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MINN	24	17	23	0
AZ ST	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AZ ST above 50 · MINN below

Biggest swing: 9.2% to Arizona St. — set 1, MINN 24-25 AZ ST. Kill by Una Vajagic (set by Elle Mottola). AZ ST win probability 63% → 72%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MINN 33.3%66.7% AZ ST

Minnesota wins

3-0

6.6%

3-1

11.8%

3-2

14.8%

Arizona St. wins

3-0

21.1%

3-1

25.6%

3-2

20.0%

MINN break %: 39.5% vs this opp
AZ ST break %: 42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Una VajagicKill+9.2%
Kill by Una Vajagic (set by Elle Mottola)
Set 1 · MINN 24-25 AZ ST · AZ ST 63% → 72%
02
Noemie GloverKill+8.5%
Kill by Noemie Glover (set by Elle Mottola)
Set 1 · MINN 24-26 AZ ST · AZ ST 72% → 81%
03
Carly GilkKill+6.9%
Kill by Carly Gilk (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 1 · MINN 24-23 AZ ST · MINN 37% → 44%
04
Noemie GloverKill+6.9%
Kill by Noemie Glover (set by Elle Mottola)
Set 1 · MINN 24-24 AZ ST · AZ ST 56% → 63%
05
AZ ST serverAce+6.3%
Arizona St. ace on Kate Thibault
Set 1 · MINN 22-22 AZ ST · AZ ST 57% → 63%
06
Kelly KinneyKill+5.9%
Kill by Kelly Kinney (set by Kate Thibault)
Set 1 · MINN 22-20 AZ ST · MINN 40% → 46%
07
Kelly KinneyKill+5.5%
Kill by Kelly Kinney (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 1 · MINN 23-22 AZ ST · MINN 37% → 42%
08
Aniya ClintonKill+5.1%
Kill by Aniya Clinton (set by Elle Mottola)
Set 1 · MINN 23-23 AZ ST · AZ ST 58% → 63%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Minnesotaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Mckenna WuchererOH	3	18	2	38	.421	0	2	2	3	1	2	1	21
7Carly GilkOPP	3	7	4	23	.130	0	2	0	1	0	3	1.5	10.5
33Kelly KinneyOH	3	10	4	25	.240	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10
15Jordan TaylorMB	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
1Stella SwensonS	3	0	1	2	-.500	30	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
16Lucie BlazkovaMB	2	1	1	8	.000	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	1.5
5McKenna GarrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	8	1	0	0	2
12Zeynep PalabiyikL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	14	1	0	0	1
6Kate ThibaultL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	2	0	0	0
17Elena HoeckeMB	2	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
4Makenna CrossonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	14	109	.239	38	7	5	39	6	10	5	64

Arizona St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Una VajagicOH	3	20	4	32	.500	2	0	2	8	2	1	1	1.5	21.5
10Noemie GloverOPP	3	11	4	30	.233	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	12
5Aniya ClintonOH	3	10	3	31	.226	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
7Zoey BurgessMB	3	4	1	6	.500	1	2	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
25Ella LomigoraMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	6
8Elle MottolaS	3	1	0	6	.167	42	0	0	10	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
4Ella LewisOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
11Isabella CostantiniS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
14Jillian NealOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
13Piper RamaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
15Faith FrameL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	11	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	13	114	.325	49	6	4	45	7	1	14	8	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MINN · AZ ST 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 3 MINNAZ ST 5

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 MINNAZ ST 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 MINNAZ ST 3

Bars above the line = Arizona St. leads, below = Minnesota leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Minnesota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	46%6/13
2	44%7/16	50%8/16
3	40%6/15	30%3/10
4	75%6/8	14%1/7
5	55%6/11	40%4/10
6	42%5/12	40%4/10
All	51%38/74	39%26/66

Arizona St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	45%5/11
2	62%8/13	43%6/14
3	70%7/10	65%13/20
4	67%6/9	45%5/11
5	75%6/8	25%2/8
6	50%5/10	50%5/10
All	61%40/66	49%36/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	MINN-AZ ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+2.4
2	1-1	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+1.6
3	1-2	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Kelly Kinney	blk Aniya Clinton, Ella Lomigora	+2.3
4	2-2	AZ ST	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+1.7
5	3-2	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Noemie Glover	blk Jordan Taylor, Mckenna Wucherer	+2.5
6	4-2	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Team	+2.6
7	4-3	MINN	AZ ST×5	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+1.7
8	4-4	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Carly Gilk		+2.5
9	4-5	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+2.5
10	4-6	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Carly Gilk		+2.4
11	4-7	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer	blk Ella Lomigora, Noemie Glover	+2.2
12	5-7	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+1.4
13	6-7	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Faith Frame	+2.4
14	6-8	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+1.7
15	7-8	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Lucie Blazkova	set Stella Swenson	+1.7
16	7-9	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Elle Mottola	+1.8
17	8-9	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.8
18	8-10	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Elle Mottola	+1.8
19	8-11	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Elle Mottola	+2.4
20	9-11	AZ ST	MINN	Serve err	AZ ST server		+1.6
21	10-11	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Una Vajagic		+2.6
22	10-12	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Una Vajagic	+2.0
23	10-13	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Kate Thibault	+2.6
24	10-14	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+2.2
25	11-14	AZ ST	MINN	Serve err	AZ ST server		+1.3
26	12-14	MINN	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+2.4
27	12-15	MINN	AZ ST	Serve err	MINN server		+1.9
28	13-15	AZ ST	MINN×3	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.7
29	14-15	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Aniya Clinton		+3.0
30	15-15	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+3.6
31	15-16	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+2.6
32	16-16	AZ ST	MINN×3	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+2.6
33	17-16	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+4.2
34	18-16	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+4.3
35	18-17	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+2.6
36	18-18	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+4.3
37	19-18	AZ ST	MINN	Attack err	Una Vajagic	blk Carly Gilk, Lucie Blazkova	+3.4
38	19-19	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+3.2
39	20-19	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+3.7
40	20-20	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Zoey Burgess	+3.5
41	21-20	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+4.1
42	22-20	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Kate Thibault	+5.9
43	22-21	MINN	AZ ST	Serve err	MINN server		+3.1
44	22-22	AZ ST	AZ ST	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Kate Thibault	+6.3
45	23-22	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+5.5
46	23-23	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+5.1
47	24-23	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+6.9
48	24-24	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+6.9
49	24-25	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+9.2
50	24-26	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+8.5
Set 2
1	1-0	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.4
2	1-1	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+1.4
3	1-2	AZ ST	AZ ST	Bad set	Stella Swenson		+2.0
4	2-2	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.4
5	2-3	MINN	AZ ST×4	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+1.4
6	2-4	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Carly Gilk	blk Zoey Burgess, Una Vajagic	+1.9
7	2-5	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Carly Gilk	blk Una Vajagic	+1.8
8	2-6	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Faith Frame	+1.6
9	3-6	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+1.0
10	3-7	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+1.1
11	3-8	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer	blk Zoey Burgess, Elle Mottola	+1.4
12	3-9	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Lucie Blazkova	blk Aniya Clinton, Zoey Burgess	+1.1
13	4-9	AZ ST	MINN	Attack err	Zoey Burgess		+0.6
14	4-10	MINN	AZ ST	Serve err	MINN server		+0.8
15	5-10	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.6
16	5-11	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.8
17	6-11	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.6
18	7-11	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Aniya Clinton	blk Carly Gilk, Jordan Taylor	+1.2
19	7-12	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+1.0
20	8-12	AZ ST	MINN×4	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.8
21	9-12	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Noemie Glover	blk Jordan Taylor, Mckenna Wucherer	+1.5
22	10-12	MINN	MINN×4	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.9
23	11-12	MINN	MINN×4	Ace	MINN server	aced Una Vajagic	+2.3
24	11-13	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+1.7
25	11-14	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+2.3
26	12-14	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.4
27	12-15	MINN	AZ ST×4	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+1.6
28	12-16	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Elle Mottola	+1.9
29	12-17	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Mckenna Wucherer	+1.5
30	12-18	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+1.0
31	13-18	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.5
32	13-19	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Faith Frame	+0.7
33	14-19	AZ ST	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.4
34	15-19	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Faith Frame	+0.9
35	16-19	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.5
36	16-20	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+1.4
37	16-21	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+1.3
38	16-22	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.7
39	17-22	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.2
40	17-23	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Elle Mottola	set Una Vajagic	+0.4
41	17-24	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Jordan Taylor		+0.2
42	17-25	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Kelly Kinney	blk Noemie Glover, Ella Lomigora	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Faith Frame	+0.8
2	0-2	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Ace	AZ ST server	aced McKenna Garr	+1.1
3	0-3	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Stella Swenson		+1.0
4	1-3	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.7
5	1-4	MINN	AZ ST	Serve err	MINN server		+0.7
6	2-4	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.7
7	2-5	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.7
8	3-5	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Kate Thibault	+0.7
9	4-5	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Una Vajagic		+1.1
10	4-6	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.8
11	5-6	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Una Vajagic	+0.8
12	5-7	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.8
13	5-8	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Zeynep Palabiyik	+1.1
14	5-9	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Jordan Taylor		+1.0
15	6-9	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.6
16	6-10	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+0.7
17	6-11	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Ella Lomigora		+0.8
18	6-12	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.7
19	7-12	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.4
20	8-12	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Aniya Clinton		+0.7
21	8-13	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.6
22	8-14	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+0.7
23	9-14	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
24	10-14	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Team	+0.7
25	10-15	MINN	AZ ST	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.6
26	11-15	AZ ST	MINN	Attack err	Una Vajagic		+0.5
27	11-16	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.6
28	12-16	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.5
29	12-17	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Faith Frame	+0.6
30	13-17	AZ ST	MINN×3	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.4
31	14-17	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.9
32	15-17	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+1.2
33	15-18	MINN	AZ ST	Serve err	MINN server		+1.1
34	16-18	AZ ST	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.9
35	17-18	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.7
36	18-18	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Ella Lomigora		+2.1
37	18-19	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+1.6
38	19-19	AZ ST	MINN×3	Attack err	Noemie Glover	blk Elena Hoecke, Carly Gilk	+1.6
39	20-19	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Una Vajagic	+2.6
40	21-19	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Team	+2.7
41	21-20	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+1.5
42	22-20	AZ ST	MINN	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+2.1
43	22-21	MINN	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+1.6
44	22-22	AZ ST	AZ ST	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Kelly Kinney	+3.2
45	23-22	AZ ST	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+2.8
46	23-23	MINN	AZ ST×3	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+2.6
47	23-24	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+4.6
48	23-25	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+4.3

Score shown after each rally, Minnesota first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.