FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeBIG-EAST

Minnesota def. Creighton 3–0

(25-18, 25-23, 25-12)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
MINN	25	25	25	3
CREIGH	18	23	12	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CREIGH above 50 · MINN below

Biggest swing: 4.1% to Minnesota — set 2, MINN 24-22 CREIGH. Kill by Carly Gilk (set by Stella Swenson). CREIGH win probability 11% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MINN 77.0%23.0% CREIGH

Minnesota wins

3-0

28.7%

3-1

29.3%

3-2

19.0%

Creighton wins

3-0

3.9%

3-1

7.8%

3-2

11.3%

MINN break %: 45.5% vs this opp
CREIGH break %: 39.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Carly GilkKill+4.1%
Kill by Carly Gilk (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 2 · MINN 24-22 CREIGH · MINN 89% → 94%
02
Mckenna WuchererKill+3.9%
Kill by Mckenna Wucherer (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 2 · MINN 25-23 CREIGH · MINN 92% → 96%
03
Kelly KinneyAttack error+3.5%
Kelly Kinney stuffed by Rayna Christianson & Ayden Ames
Set 2 · MINN 21-21 CREIGH · CREIGH 11% → 14%
04
Mckenna WuchererKill+3.5%
Kill by Mckenna Wucherer (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 2 · MINN 23-22 CREIGH · MINN 86% → 89%
05
Ayden AmesKill+3.0%
Kill by Ayden Ames (set by Rayna Christianson)
Set 2 · MINN 22-22 CREIGH · CREIGH 11% → 14%
06
Jordan TaylorKill+2.9%
Kill by Jordan Taylor (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 2 · MINN 22-21 CREIGH · MINN 86% → 89%
07
Katie DaltonAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Katie Dalton
Set 1 · MINN 13-12 CREIGH · MINN 75% → 78%
08
Trinity Shadd-CeresKill+2.6%
Kill by Trinity Shadd-Ceres (set by Katie Dalton)
Set 1 · MINN 9-10 CREIGH · CREIGH 24% → 26%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Minnesotaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Mckenna WuchererOH	3	10	4	27	.222	0	1	1	6	0	0	3	1.5	12.5
17Elena HoeckeMB	3	7	0	14	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	10
33Kelly KinneyOH	3	7	3	20	.200	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	1	8
1Stella SwensonS	3	2	1	5	.200	29	4	2	7	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
7Carly GilkOPP	3	5	2	11	.273	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	6
15Jordan TaylorMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	6
5McKenna GarrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	2
12Zeynep PalabiyikL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	3	13	0	0	0	0	2
6Kate ThibaultL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
13Olivia SwensonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Makenna CrossonOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	10	84	.298	32	10	9	39	6	2	12	8	75

Creightonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Ayden AmesMB	3	8	2	18	.333	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	9.5
0Trinity Shadd-CeresOH	3	6	8	25	-.080	0	1	3	3	4	0	0	7
2Abbey HayesOH	3	6	2	26	.154	1	0	1	7	1	0	0	6
19Nora WurtzMB	3	0	0	1	.000	1	3	1	1	0	0	0	3
24Sydney BreissingerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	3	3	0	0	2
5Katie DaltonS	2	0	2	3	-.667	8	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
6Jaya JohnsonMB	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Rayna ChristiansonS	3	1	0	1	1.000	8	0	3	2	0	2	1	2
10Eloise BrandewieMB	3	1	3	11	-.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
13Saige DamrowL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	4	0	0	9	2	0	0	1
22Ashlyn PaymalOH	2	2	1	4	.250	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
Team totals		28	21	103	.068	25	6	8	34	10	8	4	53

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MINN · CREIGH 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 MINNCREIGH 4

Set 2*

25-23

Longest run 4 MINNCREIGH 5

Set 3

25-12

Longest run 6 MINNCREIGH 2

Bars above the line = Creighton leads, below = Minnesota leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Minnesota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%4/10	67%4/6
2	57%4/7	56%5/9
3	100%4/4	73%11/15
4	100%3/3	67%6/9
5	75%3/4	50%3/6
6	75%3/4	0%0/3
All	66%21/32	60%29/48

Creighton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%4/9	60%6/10
2	27%4/15	43%3/7
3	33%3/9	0%0/4
4	50%3/6	0%0/3
5	100%3/3	25%1/4
6	33%2/6	25%1/4
All	40%19/48	34%11/32

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	MINN-CREIGH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CREIGH	CREIGH×4	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer		+2.0
2	0-2	CREIGH	CREIGH×4	Attack err	Carly Gilk		+2.1
3	0-3	CREIGH	CREIGH×4	Ace	CREIGH server	aced Carly Gilk	+2.2
4	0-4	CREIGH	CREIGH×4	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Katie Dalton	+2.2
5	1-4	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.4
6	2-4	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Sydney Breissinger	+2.1
7	2-5	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Abbey Hayes	set Katie Dalton	+1.7
8	2-6	CREIGH	CREIGH	Attack err	Carly Gilk		+2.3
9	3-6	CREIGH	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.5
10	4-6	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres		+2.1
11	5-6	MINN	MINN×3	Bad set	Ayden Ames		+2.2
12	5-7	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Katie Dalton	+1.8
13	6-7	CREIGH	MINN×3	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+1.7
14	7-7	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres	blk Stella Swenson, Elena Hoecke	+2.3
15	8-7	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Stella Swenson		+2.2
16	8-8	MINN	CREIGH	Attack err	Stella Swenson		+1.7
17	9-8	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.7
18	9-9	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Trinity Shadd-Ceres	set Saige Damrow	+1.8
19	9-10	CREIGH	CREIGH	Kill	Trinity Shadd-Ceres	set Katie Dalton	+2.6
20	10-10	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.8
21	10-11	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+2.0
22	11-11	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.9
23	11-12	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Trinity Shadd-Ceres	set Katie Dalton	+2.1
24	12-12	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+2.0
25	13-12	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Katie Dalton		+2.6
26	13-13	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+2.0
27	14-13	CREIGH	MINN×4	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+2.0
28	15-13	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Jaya Johnson		+2.6
29	16-13	MINN	MINN×4	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+2.2
30	17-13	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Abbey Hayes		+1.8
31	17-14	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+1.1
32	18-14	CREIGH	MINN×3	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres		+1.3
33	19-14	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Trinity Shadd-Ceres	+1.3
34	20-14	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres		+0.8
35	20-15	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Katie Dalton	+0.4
36	21-15	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.5
37	21-16	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Jaya Johnson	set Katie Dalton	+0.3
38	22-16	CREIGH	MINN	Attack err	Katie Dalton		+0.5
39	22-17	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Eloise Brandewie	set Katie Dalton	+0.2
40	22-18	CREIGH	CREIGH	Ace	CREIGH server	aced Kelly Kinney	+0.6
41	23-18	CREIGH	MINN×3	Serve err	CREIGH server		+0.7
42	24-18	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Ashlyn Paymal	blk Kelly Kinney, Jordan Taylor	+0.4
43	25-18	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Saige Damrow	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres		+1.4
2	1-1	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+1.1
3	2-1	CREIGH	MINN	Serve err	CREIGH server		+1.0
4	2-2	MINN	CREIGH	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer	blk Jaya Johnson, Ayden Ames	+1.1
5	3-2	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+1.1
6	4-2	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Eloise Brandewie		+1.4
7	4-3	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Jaya Johnson	set Eloise Brandewie	+1.0
8	4-4	CREIGH	CREIGH	Kill	Saige Damrow	set Stella Swenson	+1.5
9	5-4	CREIGH	MINN	Serve err	CREIGH server		+1.1
10	6-4	MINN	MINN	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Saige Damrow	+1.4
11	6-5	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ashlyn Paymal	set Rayna Christianson	+1.1
12	6-6	CREIGH	CREIGH	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer	blk Eloise Brandewie, Ashlyn Paymal	+1.6
13	7-6	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.2
14	7-7	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+1.3
15	8-7	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+1.2
16	8-8	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Ashlyn Paymal	+1.3
17	9-8	CREIGH	MINN×4	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.3
18	10-8	MINN	MINN×4	Ace	MINN server	aced Saige Damrow	+1.6
19	11-8	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Ayden Ames	blk Jordan Taylor	+1.4
20	12-8	MINN	MINN×4	Ace	MINN server	aced Trinity Shadd-Ceres	+1.2
21	12-9	MINN	CREIGH	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.8
22	13-9	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+0.9
23	13-10	MINN	CREIGH	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer		+0.8
24	13-11	CREIGH	CREIGH	Kill	Trinity Shadd-Ceres	set Nora Wurtz	+1.4
25	14-11	CREIGH	MINN×3	Attack err	Eloise Brandewie	blk Jordan Taylor, Mckenna Wucherer	+1.2
26	15-11	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.3
27	16-11	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Eloise Brandewie		+1.0
28	16-12	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+0.6
29	16-13	CREIGH	CREIGH	Kill	Trinity Shadd-Ceres	set Eloise Brandewie	+1.1
30	17-13	CREIGH	MINN	Serve err	CREIGH server		+1.0
31	18-13	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres		+1.0
32	18-14	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+0.6
33	18-15	CREIGH	CREIGH	Kill	Abbey Hayes	set Rayna Christianson	+1.1
34	19-15	CREIGH	MINN	Serve err	CREIGH server		+1.0
35	19-16	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Abbey Hayes	set Rayna Christianson	+0.8
36	20-16	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.1
37	21-16	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.9
38	21-17	MINN	CREIGH×5	Kill	Ashlyn Paymal	set Rayna Christianson	+0.4
39	21-18	CREIGH	CREIGH×5	Ace	CREIGH server	aced Kelly Kinney	+1.0
40	21-19	CREIGH	CREIGH×5	Attack err	Kelly Kinney	blk Rayna Christianson, Ayden Ames	+1.6
41	21-20	CREIGH	CREIGH×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.5
42	21-21	CREIGH	CREIGH×5	Attack err	Kelly Kinney	blk Rayna Christianson, Ayden Ames	+3.5
43	22-21	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+2.9
44	22-22	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Rayna Christianson	+3.0
45	23-22	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+3.5
46	24-22	MINN	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+4.1
47	24-23	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Trinity Shadd-Ceres	set Saige Damrow	+1.8
48	25-23	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+3.9
Set 3
1	0-1	CREIGH	CREIGH	Ace	CREIGH server	aced Carly Gilk	+0.8
2	0-2	CREIGH	CREIGH	Ace	CREIGH server	aced Carly Gilk	+0.9
3	1-2	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.6
4	2-2	MINN	MINN	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+0.8
5	2-3	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Abbey Hayes	set Saige Damrow	+0.7
6	2-4	CREIGH	CREIGH	Kill	Abbey Hayes	set Saige Damrow	+0.9
7	3-4	CREIGH	MINN×6	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.6
8	4-4	MINN	MINN×6	Ace	MINN server	aced Trinity Shadd-Ceres	+0.9
9	5-4	MINN	MINN×6	Attack err	Jaya Johnson	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+0.8
10	6-4	MINN	MINN×6	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.8
11	7-4	MINN	MINN×6	Ace	MINN server	aced Trinity Shadd-Ceres	+0.7
12	8-4	MINN	MINN×6	Attack err	Jaya Johnson	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+0.6
13	8-5	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Rayna Christianson	+0.4
14	9-5	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.5
15	10-5	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres		+0.5
16	10-6	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Rayna Christianson	+0.3
17	11-6	CREIGH	MINN×4	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.4
18	12-6	MINN	MINN×4	Ace	MINN server	aced Abbey Hayes	+0.4
19	13-6	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Abbey Hayes	blk Kelly Kinney, Elena Hoecke	+0.3
20	14-6	MINN	MINN×4	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.2
21	14-7	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Jaya Johnson	set Rayna Christianson	+0.1
22	15-7	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
23	15-8	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Rayna Christianson	set Abbey Hayes	+0.1
24	16-8	CREIGH	MINN×3	Serve err	CREIGH server		+0.1
25	17-8	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Sydney Breissinger	+0.1
26	18-8	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
27	18-9	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
28	19-9	CREIGH	MINN×3	Serve err	CREIGH server		+0.0
29	20-9	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.0
30	21-9	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	MINN server	aced Sydney Breissinger	+0.0
31	21-10	MINN	CREIGH	Kill	Ayden Ames	set Rayna Christianson	+0.0
32	21-11	CREIGH	CREIGH	Kill	Abbey Hayes		+0.0
33	22-11	CREIGH	MINN	Serve err	CREIGH server		+0.0
34	23-11	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Ayden Ames	blk Elena Hoecke	+0.0
35	23-12	MINN	CREIGH	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
36	24-12	CREIGH	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
37	25-12	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Trinity Shadd-Ceres		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Minnesota first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.