FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayACC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Minnesota def. Miami (FL) 3–0

(25-15, 25-16, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MIAMI	15	16	14	0
MINN	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MINN above 50 · MIAMI below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Miami (FL) — set 2, MIAMI 14-13 MINN. Kill by Ariana Rodriguez (set by Adrianna Bridges). MINN win probability 98% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MIAMI 2.9%97.1% MINN

Miami (FL) wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.8%

3-2

1.8%

Minnesota wins

3-0

62.7%

3-1

27.1%

3-2

7.3%

MIAMI break %: 36.1% vs this opp
MINN break %: 50.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ariana RodriguezKill+0.6%
Kill by Ariana Rodriguez (set by Adrianna Bridges)
Set 2 · MIAMI 14-13 MINN · MIAMI 2% → 2%
02
Adrianna BridgesAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Adrianna Bridges
Set 2 · MIAMI 14-15 MINN · MINN 98% → 98%
03
Asia HarveyKill+0.4%
Kill by Asia Harvey (set by Gaby Arroyo)
Set 2 · MIAMI 6-3 MINN · MIAMI 2% → 3%
04
Mckenna WuchererAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Mckenna Wucherer
Set 2 · MIAMI 5-3 MINN · MIAMI 2% → 2%
05
MINN serverAce+0.4%
Minnesota ace on Ruth Martinez
Set 2 · MIAMI 14-16 MINN · MINN 98% → 99%
06
MINN serverAce+0.4%
Minnesota ace on Asia Harvey
Set 2 · MIAMI 11-12 MINN · MINN 98% → 99%
07
Stella SwensonKill+0.4%
Kill by Stella Swenson (set by McKenna Garr)
Set 2 · MIAMI 14-14 MINN · MINN 98% → 98%
08
Ruth MartinezKill+0.4%
Kill by Ruth Martinez (set by Ariana Rodriguez)
Set 2 · MIAMI 11-10 MINN · MIAMI 2% → 2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Miami (FL)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Ruth MartinezOH	3	10	5	25	.200	0	0	2	7	3	0	0	0	10
17Ella ThompsonOH	3	5	3	15	.133	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	6
6Ariana RodriguezS	3	1	1	5	.000	21	1	2	4	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
21Denitsa AngelovaMB	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	2
3Adrianna BridgesMB	3	1	2	5	-.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
22Asia HarveyOH	2	4	7	22	-.136	0	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	5
8Gaby ArroyoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	12	1	0	0	0	0
23Lal AkinMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
11Sonja DanilovicOH	1	1	2	8	-.125	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	1
5Olivia DurstL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	20	85	.047	24	3	8	34	9	1	2	2	45

Minnesotahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Mckenna WuchererOH	3	8	1	22	.318	0	6	2	9	0	1	0.5	14.5
33Kelly KinneyOH	3	9	3	20	.300	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	10
7Carly GilkOPP	3	8	1	15	.467	0	0	3	2	0	2	1	9
17Elena HoeckeMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
15Jordan TaylorMB	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	5
1Stella SwensonS	3	2	0	4	.500	29	0	2	2	0	0	0	2
5McKenna GarrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	1
12Zeynep PalabiyikL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	10	2	0	0	1
6Kate ThibaultL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	0
11Madi KraftL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Makenna CrossonOH	2	3	1	4	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
10Georgia LeeS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
13Olivia SwensonOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	7	83	.373	37	9	11	34	3	10	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MIAMI · MINN 7

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 2 MIAMIMINN 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 MIAMIMINN 7

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 MIAMIMINN 5

Bars above the line = Minnesota leads, below = Miami (FL) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Miami (FL)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	17%1/6
2	55%6/11	22%2/9
3	60%6/10	33%3/9
4	40%6/15	14%1/7
5	28%5/18	33%3/9
6	67%4/6	17%1/6
All	46%34/74	24%11/46

Minnesota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	50%6/12
2	75%6/8	45%5/11
3	75%6/8	33%3/9
4	67%6/9	45%5/11
5	75%6/8	71%15/21
6	100%4/4	60%6/10
All	76%35/46	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

120 rallies

Rally log

#	MIAMI-MINN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Ella Thompson	blk Jordan Taylor, Kelly Kinney	+0.3
2	1-1	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.3
3	1-2	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
4	2-2	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.3
5	2-3	MIAMI	MINN	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.3
6	2-4	MINN	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke		+0.3
7	3-4	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.3
8	3-5	MIAMI	MINN×4	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.2
9	3-6	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+0.3
10	3-7	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Ella Thompson		+0.2
11	3-8	MINN	MINN×4	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.2
12	4-8	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.1
13	5-8	MIAMI	MIAMI	Ace	MIAMI server	aced Kate Thibault	+0.2
14	5-9	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.2
15	5-10	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+0.2
16	6-10	MINN	MIAMI	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.1
17	7-10	MIAMI	MIAMI	Ace	MIAMI server	aced Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.2
18	7-11	MIAMI	MINN×3	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.2
19	7-12	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.2
20	7-13	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+0.1
21	8-13	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
22	8-14	MIAMI	MINN×3	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
23	8-15	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
24	8-16	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
25	9-16	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
26	9-17	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
27	10-17	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
28	10-18	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
29	10-19	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Ruth Martinez	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+0.0
30	11-19	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Denitsa Angelova	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
31	11-20	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
32	12-20	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
33	12-21	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
34	13-21	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Adrianna Bridges	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
35	13-22	MIAMI	MINN	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+0.0
36	14-22	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
37	14-23	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Jordan Taylor	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
38	14-24	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Ruth Martinez		+0.0
39	15-24	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
40	15-25	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MIAMI	MIAMI	Attack err	Kelly Kinney	blk Denitsa Angelova	+0.3
2	1-1	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.2
3	1-2	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Ruth Martinez	+0.2
4	2-2	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ella Thompson	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.2
5	3-2	MIAMI	MIAMI	Ace	MIAMI server	aced Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.3
6	3-3	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.2
7	4-3	MINN	MIAMI×3	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.3
8	5-3	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer		+0.4
9	6-3	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Gaby Arroyo	+0.4
10	6-4	MIAMI	MINN×3	Attack err	Ruth Martinez		+0.3
11	6-5	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+0.4
12	6-6	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
13	7-6	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.3
14	7-7	MIAMI	MINN	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.3
15	8-7	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.3
16	8-8	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
17	9-8	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ella Thompson	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.3
18	9-9	MIAMI	MINN	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.3
19	10-9	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.3
20	10-10	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
21	11-10	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.4
22	11-11	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
23	11-12	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Asia Harvey	+0.4
24	12-12	MINN	MIAMI	Attack err	Carly Gilk		+0.3
25	12-13	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
26	13-13	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.3
27	14-13	MIAMI	MIAMI	Kill	Ariana Rodriguez	set Adrianna Bridges	+0.6
28	14-14	MIAMI	MINN×7	Kill	Stella Swenson	set McKenna Garr	+0.4
29	14-15	MINN	MINN×7	Attack err	Adrianna Bridges		+0.5
30	14-16	MINN	MINN×7	Ace	MINN server	aced Ruth Martinez	+0.4
31	14-17	MINN	MINN×7	Ace	MINN server	aced Asia Harvey	+0.3
32	14-18	MINN	MINN×7	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+0.2
33	14-19	MINN	MINN×7	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.1
34	14-20	MINN	MINN×7	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Kate Thibault	+0.1
35	15-20	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
36	16-20	MIAMI	MIAMI	Kill	Ella Thompson	set Gaby Arroyo	+0.1
37	16-21	MIAMI	MINN×5	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.1
38	16-22	MINN	MINN×5	Attack err	Ella Thompson		+0.1
39	16-23	MINN	MINN×5	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
40	16-24	MINN	MINN×5	Ace	MINN server	aced Team	+0.0
41	16-25	MINN	MINN×5	Attack err	Asia Harvey	blk Jordan Taylor, Kelly Kinney	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Ruth Martinez	blk Carly Gilk, Jordan Taylor	+0.1
2	1-1	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.1
3	1-2	MIAMI	MINN×3	Attack err	Ariana Rodriguez		+0.1
4	1-3	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Sonja Danilovic		+0.1
5	1-4	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Adrianna Bridges		+0.1
6	2-4	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ella Thompson	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.1
7	2-5	MIAMI	MINN	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.1
8	3-5	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.1
9	3-6	MIAMI	MINN	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.1
10	4-6	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
11	4-7	MIAMI	MINN×5	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
12	4-8	MINN	MINN×5	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Kate Thibault	+0.1
13	4-9	MINN	MINN×5	Ace	MINN server	aced Team	+0.0
14	4-10	MINN	MINN×5	Ace	MINN server	aced Sonja Danilovic	+0.0
15	4-11	MINN	MINN×5	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
16	5-11	MINN	MIAMI	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.0
17	5-12	MIAMI	MINN	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.0
18	6-12	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Sonja Danilovic	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
19	6-13	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
20	6-14	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.0
21	7-14	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
22	8-14	MIAMI	MIAMI	Attack err	Jordan Taylor	blk Ariana Rodriguez, Lal Akin	+0.0
23	8-15	MIAMI	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
24	8-16	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Ruth Martinez	blk Carly Gilk, Jordan Taylor	+0.0
25	8-17	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
26	9-17	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
27	10-17	MIAMI	MIAMI	Kill	Ella Thompson	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
28	10-18	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
29	11-18	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
30	11-19	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
31	12-19	MINN	MIAMI	Kill	Lal Akin	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.0
32	13-19	MIAMI	MIAMI	Attack err	Makenna Crosson		+0.0
33	13-20	MIAMI	MINN×5	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Georgia Lee	+0.0
34	13-21	MINN	MINN×5	Ace	MINN server	aced Ruth Martinez	+0.0
35	13-22	MINN	MINN×5	Ace	MINN server	aced Gaby Arroyo	+0.0
36	13-23	MINN	MINN×5	Attack err	Sonja Danilovic		+0.0
37	13-24	MINN	MINN×5	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.0
38	14-24	MINN	MIAMI	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
39	14-25	MIAMI	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Georgia Lee	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Miami (FL) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.