FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwaySUMMIT-LEAGUE

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Minnesota def. St. Thomas (MN) 3–0

(25-22, 25-20, 25-22)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
STTHOM	22	20	22	0
MINN	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MINN above 50 · STTHOM below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Minnesota — set 1, STTHOM 22-24 MINN. Kill by Mckenna Wucherer (set by Stella Swenson). MINN win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STTHOM 1.0%99.0% MINN

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.7%

Minnesota wins

3-0

74.0%

3-1

21.2%

3-2

3.8%

STTHOM break %: 34.0% vs this opp
MINN break %: 51.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mckenna WuchererKill+0.5%
Kill by Mckenna Wucherer (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 1 · STTHOM 22-24 MINN · MINN 99% → 99%
02
STTHOM serverAce+0.4%
St. Thomas (MN) ace on Kelly Kinney
Set 1 · STTHOM 22-23 MINN · STTHOM 1% → 1%
03
STTHOM serverAce+0.4%
St. Thomas (MN) ace on Team
Set 1 · STTHOM 20-21 MINN · STTHOM 1% → 1%
04
Elena HoeckeKill+0.3%
Kill by Elena Hoecke (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 1 · STTHOM 20-22 MINN · MINN 99% → 99%
05
MINN serverAce+0.3%
Minnesota ace on Anya Schmidt
Set 1 · STTHOM 20-23 MINN · MINN 99% → 99%
06
Kelly KinneyKill+0.3%
Kill by Kelly Kinney (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 1 · STTHOM 22-25 MINN · MINN 99% → 100%
07
STTHOM serverAce+0.2%
St. Thomas (MN) ace on Makenna Crosson
Set 1 · STTHOM 18-20 MINN · STTHOM 1% → 1%
08
STTHOM serverService error+0.2%
St. Thomas (MN) service error
Set 1 · STTHOM 18-21 MINN · MINN 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

St. Thomas (MN)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Anya SchmidtOH	3	13	3	24	.417	0	1	2	3	3	0	0	14
24Audrey KoconOH	3	7	3	15	.267	1	0	3	5	0	1	0.5	7.5
7Ellie GustafsonOH	3	1	3	14	-.143	0	4	0	5	3	0	0	5
21Reilly KurthMB	3	3	4	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
22Addie SchmotzerMB	3	4	4	17	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
5Morgan KealyS	3	0	0	2	.000	24	0	0	3	0	2	1	1
2Bryn LunskiOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Kira BrundageL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	3	2	1	0	0	1
3Taylor McNearL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	1
10Sophia Del ValleL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Maddy BenkaOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Emory BrosnahanOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
23Miriam UnongoOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	18	82	.134	28	9	8	23	7	6	3	64

Minnesotahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Mckenna WuchererOH	3	18	2	26	.615	1	2	4	8	0	3	1.5	21.5
16Lucie BlazkovaMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	2	0	5	2.5	6.5
4Makenna CrossonOH	3	2	1	9	.111	0	3	1	3	1	1	0.5	5.5
17Elena HoeckeMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
1Stella SwensonS	3	2	0	3	.667	34	1	2	2	0	0	0	3
5McKenna GarrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0
33Kelly KinneyOH	3	10	6	23	.174	0	0	0	0	3	2	1	11
6Kate ThibaultL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	2	0	0	4	1	0	0	1
12Zeynep PalabiyikL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	8	0	0	0	0
11Madi KraftL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Olivia SwensonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Carly GilkOPP	1	2	2	7	.000	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	4
Team totals		42	13	84	.345	41	7	13	31	9	16	8	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 STTHOM · MINN 8

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 STTHOMMINN 3

Set 2*

20-25

Longest run 3 STTHOMMINN 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 STTHOMMINN 8

Bars above the line = Minnesota leads, below = St. Thomas (MN) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

St. Thomas (MN)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%5/5	55%6/11
2	63%5/8	29%2/7
3	71%5/7	38%3/8
4	50%4/8	29%2/7
5	25%3/12	43%3/7
6	38%3/8	50%3/6
All	52%25/48	41%19/46

Minnesota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%5/11	63%5/8
2	71%5/7	0%0/5
3	63%5/8	38%3/8
4	71%5/7	29%2/7
5	57%4/7	50%4/8
6	50%3/6	75%9/12
All	59%27/46	48%23/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	STTHOM-MINN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Lucie Blazkova	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
2	1-1	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
3	1-2	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
4	1-3	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Audrey Kocon	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+0.1
5	2-3	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
6	2-4	STTHOM	MINN	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.1
7	3-4	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
8	3-5	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
9	3-6	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
10	4-6	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
11	4-7	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Lucie Blazkova	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
12	4-8	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson	blk Makenna Crosson, Lucie Blazkova	+0.1
13	5-8	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
14	6-8	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.1
15	6-9	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
16	7-9	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
17	7-10	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
18	8-10	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
19	8-11	STTHOM	MINN	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.1
20	8-12	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Kira Brundage	+0.1
21	9-12	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
22	9-13	STTHOM	MINN	Attack err	Addie Schmotzer		+0.1
23	9-14	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Anya Schmidt	+0.1
24	10-14	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
25	10-15	STTHOM	MINN×3	Kill	Kate Thibault	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
26	10-16	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Kate Thibault	+0.0
27	10-17	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Addie Schmotzer		+0.0
28	11-17	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
29	12-17	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.0
30	12-18	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
31	13-18	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
32	13-19	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.0
33	14-19	MINN	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Makenna Crosson		+0.0
34	15-19	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Ace	STTHOM server	aced McKenna Garr	+0.1
35	16-19	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Ace	STTHOM server	aced McKenna Garr	+0.1
36	16-20	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
37	17-20	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
38	18-20	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Makenna Crosson	+0.2
39	18-21	STTHOM	MINN	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.2
40	19-21	MINN	STTHOM	Attack err	Elena Hoecke		+0.2
41	20-21	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Team	+0.4
42	20-22	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
43	20-23	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Anya Schmidt	+0.3
44	21-23	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
45	22-23	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Kelly Kinney	+0.4
46	22-24	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.5
47	22-25	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	MINN	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
2	1-1	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
3	1-2	STTHOM	MINN×4	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Mckenna Wucherer	+0.1
4	1-3	MINN	MINN×4	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
5	1-4	MINN	MINN×4	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.1
6	1-5	MINN	MINN×4	Ace	MINN server	aced Ellie Gustafson	+0.0
7	2-5	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Kira Brundage	+0.0
8	3-5	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Audrey Kocon	+0.1
9	3-6	STTHOM	MINN×3	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.0
10	3-7	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Addie Schmotzer		+0.0
11	3-8	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.0
12	4-8	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
13	4-9	STTHOM	MINN	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.0
14	5-9	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
15	6-9	STTHOM	STTHOM	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
16	6-10	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
17	6-11	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.0
18	7-11	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
19	7-12	STTHOM	MINN×3	Kill	Lucie Blazkova	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
20	7-13	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
21	7-14	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Reilly Kurth	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova	+0.0
22	8-14	MINN	STTHOM	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer		+0.0
23	8-15	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
24	9-15	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
25	9-16	STTHOM	MINN	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.0
26	9-17	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Audrey Kocon	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+0.0
27	10-17	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
28	10-18	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.0
29	10-19	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Addie Schmotzer	blk Elena Hoecke, Kelly Kinney	+0.0
30	11-19	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
31	11-20	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
32	12-20	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
33	13-20	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Kelly Kinney	blk Morgan Kealy, Reilly Kurth	+0.0
34	13-21	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Lucie Blazkova	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
35	14-21	MINN	STTHOM×3	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
36	15-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.0
37	16-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Taylor McNear	+0.0
38	16-22	STTHOM	MINN	Attack err	Reilly Kurth	blk Lucie Blazkova	+0.0
39	17-22	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
40	17-23	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
41	18-23	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
42	19-23	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
43	19-24	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
44	20-24	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
45	20-25	STTHOM	MINN	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
2	2-0	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Kelly Kinney	+0.1
3	3-0	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Kelly Kinney	+0.1
4	4-0	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
5	4-1	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
6	5-1	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
7	5-2	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
8	6-2	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
9	6-3	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
10	7-3	MINN	STTHOM	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
11	7-4	STTHOM	MINN	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.1
12	8-4	MINN	STTHOM×3	Serve err	MINN server		+0.1
13	9-4	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
14	10-4	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Kelly Kinney	blk Morgan Kealy, Reilly Kurth	+0.1
15	10-5	STTHOM	MINN×8	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
16	10-6	MINN	MINN×8	Ace	MINN server	aced Anya Schmidt	+0.1
17	10-7	MINN	MINN×8	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson	blk Carly Gilk, Lucie Blazkova	+0.1
18	10-8	MINN	MINN×8	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
19	10-9	MINN	MINN×8	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson	blk Carly Gilk, Lucie Blazkova	+0.1
20	10-10	MINN	MINN×8	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
21	10-11	MINN	MINN×8	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.1
22	10-12	MINN	MINN×8	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.1
23	11-12	MINN	STTHOM×3	Kill	Maddy Benka	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
24	12-12	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Lucie Blazkova		+0.1
25	13-12	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Carly Gilk	blk Reilly Kurth, Audrey Kocon	+0.1
26	13-13	STTHOM	MINN×6	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
27	13-14	MINN	MINN×6	Attack err	Maddy Benka		+0.1
28	13-15	MINN	MINN×6	Attack err	Audrey Kocon		+0.1
29	13-16	MINN	MINN×6	Ace	MINN server	aced Ellie Gustafson	+0.1
30	13-17	MINN	MINN×6	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.0
31	13-18	MINN	MINN×6	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
32	14-18	MINN	STTHOM	Attack err	Carly Gilk		+0.0
33	14-19	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.0
34	15-19	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
35	16-19	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Team	+0.0
36	16-20	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.0
37	16-21	MINN	MINN	Ace	MINN server	aced Ellie Gustafson	+0.0
38	17-21	MINN	STTHOM×3	Serve err	MINN server		+0.0
39	18-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Mckenna Wucherer		+0.0
40	19-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Kira Brundage	+0.1
41	19-22	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
42	20-22	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.0
43	21-22	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Kelly Kinney		+0.1
44	21-23	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Kate Thibault	+0.1
45	22-23	MINN	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
46	22-24	STTHOM	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.1
47	22-25	MINN	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, St. Thomas (MN) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.