FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on B1G+

Minnesota def. Northwestern 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Minnesota 93.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Minnesota beat visiting Northwestern 3-0 (25-14, 25-11, 25-9) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. Minnesota's Mckenna Wucherer led with 10 kills.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set123Sets
NW141190
MINN2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Mckenna Garr served 5 aces in a Minnesota rout.

No single rally moved win probability more than 0.8 points. Northwestern peaked at 6% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave Minnesota 94% before first serve.

NorthwesternMinnesota
  • Break %+37.9 pts
    30.668.5

    Points won on own serve: 50 of 73 vs 11 of 36. Northwestern sided out 31.5% of the time.

  • Hitting+.448
    -.036.412

    Kills and errors: 40–7 vs 19–22.

  • Longest run+6
    410

    10 straight Minnesota points in the third set stretched a 12–6 lead to 22–6. The set finished 25–9.

Minnesota above 50Northwestern belowMax swing 0.8%

NorthwesternMinnesota

Aces
Northwestern 0·Minnesota 9
Serve err
Northwestern 4·Minnesota 8
Blocks
Northwestern 4·Minnesota 91 BS · 6 BA vs 0 BS · 18 BA
Digs
Northwestern 31·Minnesota 37

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Minnesota above 50 · Northwestern below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100rally 109 · set 3

No single rally moved win probability by a full point: Minnesota stayed the heavy favorite throughout.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW 1.9%98.1% MINN

Northwestern wins

3-0
0.2%
3-1
0.5%
3-2
1.3%

Minnesota wins

3-0
67.5%
3-1
24.9%
3-2
5.7%
NW break %
33.9% vs this opp
MINN break %
49.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
37422.13600010010.57.5
35525.000000230216
36521.048001330006
3126-.16700010031.52.5
3012-.5001500500000
3000–201200000
3023-.667000001011
3000–1001300000
2000–000010000
2000–101120000
1023-.667000100000
1012-.500000000000
1000–001000000
1000–000200000
Team totals192284-.036190431916434
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310124.37503250031.514.5
3809.88910200052.510.5
35112.333010400217
3214.2502900800424
25112.333000000005
2315.40000000010.53.5
3000–051800005
3000–100300000
3000–001800000
2000–400000000
16210.40000000031.57.5
1104.250001100001
1000–001000000
1000–000000000
Team totals40780.4123598370018975

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 NW · MINN 10

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 4 NWMINN 8

Set 2

11-25

Longest run 2 NWMINN 9

Set 3

9-25

Longest run 2 NWMINN 10

Bars above the line = Minnesota leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
35%6/17
29%2/7
2
28%5/18
33%3/9
3
30%3/10
44%4/9
4
30%3/10
25%1/4
5
33%3/9
0%0/3
6
33%3/9
25%1/4
All
32%23/73
31%11/36

Minnesota

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%6/9
60%6/10
2
63%5/8
80%20/25
3
56%5/9
44%4/9
4
100%3/3
79%11/14
5
75%3/4
73%8/11
6
100%3/3
25%1/4
All
69%25/36
68%50/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

109 rallies

#NW-MINNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passer
Set 1
10-1NWMINN×3KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson
20-2MINNMINN×3BlockedMara Stiglicblk Makenna Crosson, Jordan Taylor
30-3MINNMINN×3Attack errMara Stiglic
41-3MINNNWKillMara Stiglicset Drew Wright
52-3NWNWBlockedMakenna Crossonblk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell
62-4NWMINN×4KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson
72-5MINNMINN×4KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson
82-6MINNMINN×4KillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson
92-7MINNMINN×4KillElena Hoecke
103-7MINNNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle
114-7NWNW×4BlockedMckenna Wuchererblk Maya Stillwell, Campbell Paris
125-7NWNW×4Attack errStella Swenson
136-7NWNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle
146-8NWMINN×8KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson
156-9MINNMINN×8BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Stella Swenson, Elena Hoecke
166-10MINNMINN×8KillStella Swensonset Elena Hoecke
176-11MINNMINN×8BlockedCampbell Parisblk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke
186-12MINNMINN×8KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson
196-13MINNMINN×8Attack errIsabella Bullington
206-14MINNMINN×8BlockedMaya Stillwellblk Stella Swenson, Elena Hoecke
216-15MINNMINN×8Attack errMaya Stillwell
227-15MINNNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle
237-16NWMINN×3BlockedEllie Stiernagleblk Stella Swenson, Elena Hoecke
247-17MINNMINN×3AceMinnesotaaced Mara Stiglic
257-18MINNMINN×3KillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson
268-18MINNNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle
278-19NWMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson
288-20MINNMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson
299-20MINNNWServe errMinnesota
309-21NWMINNKillStella Swensonset Kate Thibault
319-22MINNMINNAttack errKayla Kauffman
3210-22MINNNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle
3311-22NWNW×3BlockedKelly Kinneyblk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell
3412-22NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle
3512-23NWMINNServe errNorthwestern
3613-23MINNNWAttack errJordan Taylor
3713-24NWMINNKillJordan Taylorset Stella Swenson
3814-24MINNNWServe errMinnesota
3914-25NWMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson
Set 2
11-0MINNNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright
22-0NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle
32-1NWMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson
42-2MINNMINNKillMckenna Wucherer
53-2MINNNWServe errMinnesota
64-2NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle
74-3NWMINNServe errNorthwestern
85-3MINNNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle
96-3NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Gigi Navarrete
106-4NWMINN×5KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson
116-5MINNMINN×5AceMinnesotaaced Ava Pratt
126-6MINNMINN×5BlockedMara Stiglicblk Stella Swenson, Elena Hoecke
136-7MINNMINN×5KillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson
146-8MINNMINN×5KillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson
157-8MINNNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle
167-9NWMINN×6KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson
177-10MINNMINN×6Attack errMara Stiglic
187-11MINNMINN×6KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson
197-12MINNMINN×6AceMinnesotaaced Gigi Navarrete
207-13MINNMINN×6AceMinnesotaaced Gigi Navarrete
217-14MINNMINN×6KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson
228-14MINNNWServe errMinnesota
239-14NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Lauren Dignan
249-15NWMINNAttack errCampbell Paris
2510-15MINNNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle
2610-16NWMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson
2711-16MINNNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle
2811-17NWMINN×9KillJordan Taylorset Stella Swenson
2911-18MINNMINN×9Attack errCampbell Paris
3011-19MINNMINN×9KillMckenna Wucherer
3111-20MINNMINN×9KillMckenna Wuchererset Georgia Lee
3211-21MINNMINN×9AceMinnesotaaced Isabella Bullington
3311-22MINNMINN×9KillJordan Taylorset Georgia Lee
3411-23MINNMINN×9AceMinnesotaaced Mara Stiglic
3511-24MINNMINN×9AceMinnesotaaced Mara Stiglic
3611-25MINNMINN×9Attack errIsabella Bullington
Set 3
10-1NWMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson
21-1MINNNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle
31-2NWMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson
42-2MINNNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle
52-3NWMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson
63-3MINNNWServe errMinnesota
73-4NWMINNServe errNorthwestern
83-5MINNMINNAttack errKayla Kauffman
94-5MINNNWServe errMinnesota
104-6NWMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson
115-6MINNNWServe errMinnesota
125-7NWMINN×6KillLucie Blazkovaset Stella Swenson
135-8MINNMINN×6KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson
145-9MINNMINN×6KillCarly Gilkset Stella Swenson
155-10MINNMINN×6BlockedMara Stiglicblk Makenna Crosson, Lucie Blazkova
165-11MINNMINN×6Attack errLily Wagner
175-12MINNMINN×6Attack errLily Wagner
186-12MINNNWAttack errLucie Blazkova
196-13NWMINN×10KillLucie Blazkovaset Stella Swenson
206-14MINNMINN×10AceMinnesotaaced Isabella Bullington
216-15MINNMINN×10AceMinnesotaaced Isabella Bullington
226-16MINNMINN×10KillLucie Blazkova
236-17MINNMINN×10BlockedCampbell Parisblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova
246-18MINNMINN×10Attack errIsabella Bullington
256-19MINNMINN×10KillLucie Blazkovaset Stella Swenson
266-20MINNMINN×10BlockedClara Schrammblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova
276-21MINNMINN×10KillLucie Blazkovaset Georgia Lee
286-22MINNMINN×10KillLucie Blazkovaset Georgia Lee
297-22MINNNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle
308-22NWNWBlockedLucie Blazkovablk Kayla Kauffman
318-23NWMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Georgia Lee
328-24MINNMINNAttack errIsabella Bullington
339-24MINNNWServe errMinnesota
349-25NWMINNServe errNorthwestern

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).