Minnesota vs Southern California: Minnesota Wins 3-0 (Nov 1)

FinalSun, Nov 1, 2026B1G+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Minnesota 80.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 1, 2:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Minnesota won at Southern California 3-0 (25-19, 25-16, 25-23) on Sun, Nov 1, 2026. Mckenna Wucherer led Minnesota with 11 kills; Southern California's Abigail Mullen had a match-high 12.

Data through Nov 4, 2:50 PM CT · final Nov 1

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MINN	25	25	25	3
USC	19	16	23	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

No. 21 Minnesota left no doubt against Southern California.

The biggest single-rally swing was 2.9 points, and Southern California's high was 19% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. RallyIQ gave Minnesota 80% before first serve.

MinnesotaSouthern California

Break %+14.9 pts
46.631.7
On serve: 34/73 against 19/60 (Southern California sideout 53.4%).
Hitting+.144
.327.183
41 kills, 9 errors vs 34 kills, 15 errors.
Longest run+4
84
8 straight Minnesota points in the second set stretched a 15–13 lead to 23–13. That set ended 25–16.

Southern California above 50Minnesota belowMax swing 2.9%

MinnesotaSouthern California

Aces: Minnesota 8·Southern California 5
Serve err: Minnesota 10·Southern California 10
Blocks: Minnesota 11·Southern California 62 BS · 18 BA vs 0 BS · 12 BA
Digs: Minnesota 39·Southern California 38

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern California above 50 · Minnesota below

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Minnesota — set 3, MINN 24-23 USC. Ace by Mckenna Wucherer on Layli Ostovar. USC win probability 5% → 3%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MINN 81.9%18.1% USC

Minnesota wins

3-0

33.5%

3-1

30.7%

3-2

17.7%

Southern California wins

3-0

2.9%

3-1

5.9%

3-2

9.3%

MINN break %: 44.1% vs this opp
USC break %: 37.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Mckenna WuchererAce+2.9%
Ace by Mckenna Wucherer on Layli Ostovar
Set 3 · MINN 24-23 USC · MINN 95% → 97%
02
Mckenna WuchererAce+2.5%
Ace by Mckenna Wucherer on Taylor Deckert
Set 3 · MINN 25-23 USC · MINN 97% → 100%
03
Abigail MullenAce+1.9%
Ace by Abigail Mullen on McKenna Garr
Set 3 · MINN 20-21 USC · USC 4% → 6%
04
Adonia FaumuinaKill+1.8%
Kill by Adonia Faumuina (set by Lilli Etter)
Set 3 · MINN 22-23 USC · USC 5% → 7%
05
MinnesotaAce+1.7%
Minnesota ace on Taylor Deckert
Set 2 · MINN 14-12 USC · MINN 90% → 92%
06
Adonia FaumuinaKill+1.7%
Kill by Adonia Faumuina (set by Lilli Etter)
Set 1 · MINN 6-5 USC · USC 17% → 18%
07
Southern CaliforniaAce+1.7%
Southern California ace on Makenna Crosson
Set 2 · MINN 10-10 USC · USC 9% → 11%
08
Mckenna WuchererKill+1.7%
Kill by Mckenna Wucherer (set by Stella Swenson)
Set 3 · MINN 23-23 USC · MINN 93% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Minnesotaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Mckenna WuchererOH	3	11	1	31	.323	2	4	2	5	0	0	4	2	17
7Carly GilkOPP	3	10	2	14	.571	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	10
1Stella SwensonS	3	5	0	8	.625	27	1	1	6	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
17Elena HoeckeMB	3	4	1	6	.500	1	0	2	2	0	0	6	3	7
16Lucie BlazkovaMB	3	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	3.5	5.5
5McKenna GarrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4Makenna CrossonOH	3	8	5	28	.107	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	9
10Georgia LeeS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
6Kate ThibaultL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
13Olivia SwensonOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Zeynep PalabiyikL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	13	1	0	0	0	0
33Kelly KinneyOH	1	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
8Calissa MinateeMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	9	98	.327	36	8	10	39	5	2	18	11	75

Southern Californiahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
5Abigail MullenOPP	3	12	6	35	.171	0	1	2	5	0	1	0.5	13.5
8Mia TvrdyMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	1	3	0	0	2	1	8
7Leah FordMB	3	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	2
17Paisley DouglasL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	1
24Milly McGeeS	3	0	0	2	.000	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2London WijayOH	2	1	2	9	-.111	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
1Adonia FaumuinaOH	3	9	3	22	.273	0	0	0	5	0	4	2	11
16Lilli EtterS	3	0	0	1	.000	23	1	0	7	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Layli OstovarOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	1
40Addison TownsendL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
6Taylor DeckertL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	8	3	0	0	0
18Riley MalloyOH	2	5	0	17	.294	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
10Quinn LoperOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	15	104	.183	33	5	10	38	8	12	6	58

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 MINN · USC 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 MINNUSC 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 8 MINNUSC 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 MINNUSC 4

Bars above the line = Southern California leads, below = Minnesota leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Minnesota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	33%3/9
2	100%8/8	27%3/11
3	73%8/11	53%9/17
4	67%6/9	68%13/19
5	46%6/13	25%2/8
6	63%5/8	44%4/9
All	68%41/60	47%34/73

Southern California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	30%3/10
2	62%8/13	11%1/9
3	43%6/14	11%1/9
4	35%6/17	45%5/11
5	60%6/10	50%6/12
6	71%5/7	33%3/9
All	53%39/73	32%19/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

133 rallies

#	MINN-USC	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	USC	MINN×3	Serve err	Southern California		+1.1
2	2-0	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+1.6
3	3-0	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+1.4
4	3-1	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		+0.9
5	4-1	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.0
6	5-1	MINN	MINN	Blocked	Mia Tvrdy	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+1.2
7	5-2	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		+0.8
8	6-2	USC	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.8
9	6-3	MINN	USC×3	Serve err	Minnesota		+0.8
10	6-4	USC	USC×3	Ace	Southern California		+1.4
11	6-5	USC	USC×3	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+1.7
12	7-5	USC	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Stella Swenson	+1.2
13	8-5	MINN	MINN	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Stella Swenson, Lucie Blazkova	+1.6
14	8-6	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		+1.0
15	9-6	USC	MINN×4	Serve err	Southern California		+1.1
16	10-6	MINN	MINN×4	Blocked	Leah Ford	blk Lucie Blazkova	+1.4
17	11-6	MINN	MINN×4	Ace	Minnesota	aced Paisley Douglas	+1.1
18	12-6	MINN	MINN×4	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.8
19	12-7	MINN	USC	Attack err	Carly Gilk		+0.5
20	13-7	USC	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Stella Swenson	+0.5
21	14-7	MINN	MINN	Ace	Minnesota	aced London Wijay	+0.6
22	14-8	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
23	15-8	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.4
24	15-9	MINN	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.3
25	16-9	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.4
26	16-10	MINN	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+0.3
27	17-10	USC	MINN	Serve err	Southern California		+0.3
28	17-11	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		+0.2
29	18-11	USC	MINN	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina		+0.3
30	18-12	MINN	USC	Blocked	Makenna Crosson	blk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford	+0.2
31	18-13	USC	USC	Attack err	Makenna Crosson		+0.5
32	19-13	USC	MINN	Blocked	London Wijay	blk Stella Swenson, Lucie Blazkova	+0.5
33	20-13	MINN	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Stella Swenson	+0.4
34	20-14	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.1
35	21-14	USC	MINN	Serve err	Southern California		+0.2
36	21-15	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set London Wijay	+0.1
37	21-16	USC	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy		+0.3
38	22-16	USC	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
39	22-17	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		+0.2
40	23-17	USC	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.3
41	23-18	MINN	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+0.1
42	23-19	USC	USC	Blocked	Elena Hoecke	blk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford	+0.3
43	24-19	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.4
44	25-19	MINN	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson		+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	MINN	MINN	Blocked	Leah Ford	blk Lucie Blazkova	+1.3
2	1-1	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
3	1-2	USC	USC	Blocked	Carly Gilk	blk Leah Ford, Adonia Faumuina	+1.5
4	2-2	USC	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.9
5	2-3	MINN	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+1.1
6	3-3	USC	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+1.0
7	4-3	MINN	MINN×3	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+1.4
8	5-3	MINN	MINN×3	Blocked	London Wijay	blk Stella Swenson, Elena Hoecke	+1.3
9	5-4	MINN	USC×3	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Taylor Deckert	+0.9
10	5-5	USC	USC×3	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
11	5-6	USC	USC×3	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Addison Townsend	+1.6
12	6-6	USC	MINN×3	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+1.1
13	7-6	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Stella Swenson	+1.5
14	8-6	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	Minnesota	aced Taylor Deckert	+1.4
15	8-7	MINN	USC	Blocked	Makenna Crosson	blk Abigail Mullen, Mia Tvrdy	+1.0
16	9-7	USC	MINN	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+1.0
17	9-8	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		+1.0
18	10-8	USC	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Stella Swenson	+1.0
19	10-9	MINN	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Taylor Deckert	+1.0
20	10-10	USC	USC	Ace	Southern California	aced Makenna Crosson	+1.7
21	11-10	USC	MINN	Blocked	Adonia Faumuina	blk Makenna Crosson, Lucie Blazkova	+1.2
22	11-11	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.2
23	12-11	USC	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+1.2
24	12-12	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.3
25	13-12	USC	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Elena Hoecke	+1.3
26	14-12	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	Minnesota	aced Taylor Deckert	+1.7
27	15-12	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.5
28	15-13	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
29	16-13	USC	MINN×8	Serve err	Southern California		+1.0
30	17-13	MINN	MINN×8	Ace	Minnesota	aced Paisley Douglas	+1.2
31	18-13	MINN	MINN×8	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Makenna Crosson, Elena Hoecke	+0.8
32	19-13	MINN	MINN×8	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.5
33	20-13	MINN	MINN×8	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
34	21-13	MINN	MINN×8	Bad set	Abigail Mullen		+0.1
35	22-13	MINN	MINN×8	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Mckenna Wucherer	+0.1
36	23-13	MINN	MINN×8	Kill	Makenna Crosson		·
37	23-14	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	·
38	24-14	USC	MINN	Serve err	Southern California		·
39	24-15	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		·
40	24-16	USC	USC	Blocked	Makenna Crosson	blk Mia Tvrdy, Lilli Etter	·
41	25-16	USC	MINN	Serve err	Southern California		·
Set 3
1	1-0	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.5
2	2-0	MINN	MINN	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke	+0.6
3	2-1	MINN	USC	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Milly McGee	+0.4
4	3-1	USC	MINN×3	Serve err	Riley Malloy		+0.4
5	4-1	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Elena Hoecke	set Stella Swenson	+0.6
6	5-1	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	Georgia Lee	aced Layli Ostovar	+0.5
7	5-2	MINN	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Taylor Deckert	+0.3
8	6-2	USC	MINN	Serve err	Mia Tvrdy		+0.3
9	7-2	MINN	MINN	Kill	Makenna Crosson	set Stella Swenson	+0.4
10	7-3	MINN	USC	Kill	Layli Ostovar	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
11	7-4	USC	USC	Blocked	Mckenna Wucherer	blk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford	+0.5
12	8-4	USC	MINN	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Kate Thibault	+0.3
13	8-5	MINN	USC×4	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.3
14	8-6	USC	USC×4	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
15	8-7	USC	USC×4	Attack err	Makenna Crosson		+0.7
16	8-8	USC	USC×4	Ace	Paisley Douglas	aced Lucie Blazkova	+0.8
17	9-8	USC	MINN	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Mckenna Wucherer	+0.6
18	9-9	MINN	USC×3	Serve err	Minnesota		+0.6
19	9-10	USC	USC×3	Ace	Addison Townsend	aced Zeynep Palabiyik	+1.0
20	9-11	USC	USC×3	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+1.1
21	10-11	USC	MINN	Kill	Lucie Blazkova	set Stella Swenson	+0.7
22	10-12	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
23	11-12	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+0.7
24	11-13	MINN	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
25	12-13	USC	MINN×3	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Stella Swenson	+0.7
26	13-13	MINN	MINN×3	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy		+1.1
27	14-13	MINN	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.1
28	14-14	MINN	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
29	15-14	USC	MINN	Serve err	Mia Tvrdy		+0.7
30	15-15	MINN	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Taylor Deckert	+0.8
31	16-15	USC	MINN	Kill	Stella Swenson	set Zeynep Palabiyik	+0.8
32	17-15	MINN	MINN	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina		+1.1
33	17-16	MINN	USC×3	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.7
34	17-17	USC	USC×3	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Lilli Etter	+1.3
35	17-18	USC	USC×3	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
36	18-18	USC	MINN	Kill	Kelly Kinney	set Stella Swenson	+1.0
37	18-19	MINN	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.1
38	19-19	USC	MINN	Kill	Lucie Blazkova	set Stella Swenson	+1.0
39	20-19	MINN	MINN	Kill	Carly Gilk	set Taylor Deckert	+1.6
40	20-20	MINN	USC	Serve err	Minnesota		+1.1
41	20-21	USC	USC	Ace	Abigail Mullen	aced McKenna Garr	+1.9
42	21-21	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.2
43	21-22	MINN	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+1.6
44	22-22	USC	MINN	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.4
45	22-23	MINN	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+1.8
46	23-23	USC	MINN×3	Kill	Mckenna Wucherer	set Stella Swenson	+1.7
47	24-23	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	Mckenna Wucherer	aced Layli Ostovar	+2.9
48	25-23	MINN	MINN×3	Ace	Mckenna Wucherer	aced Taylor Deckert	+2.5

Score shown after each rally, Minnesota first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Minnesota def. Southern California 3–0

No. 21 Minnesota left no doubt against Southern California.