Final · 4 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on B1G+

Penn St. def. Minnesota 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Minnesota 64.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Penn St. won at Minnesota 3-1 (25-22, 25-20, 19-25, 25-21) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Penn St.'s Kennedy Martin led with 34 kills, and Alexis Stucky added 15 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set1234Sets
PENNST252519253
MINN222025211

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Alexis Stucky set 55 assists as Penn St. outlasted Minnesota.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Penn St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, Minnesota was RallyIQ's 65% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Penn St. 1–1 Minnesota

    6 straight Penn St. kills broke a 1–1 tie and made it 7–1.

    Penn St. 68% → 89%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Penn St. 15–10 Minnesota

    Down 10–15, Minnesota scored 5 straight to tie it at 15.

    Penn St. 91% → 70%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Penn St. 21–21 Minnesota

    Penn St. closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–21 and win the match 3–1.

    Penn St. 68% → >99%

Minnesota above 50Penn St. belowMax swing 10.6%

Penn St.Minnesota

Sideout %
Penn St. 58.4·Minnesota 54.8
Break %
Penn St. 45.2·Minnesota 41.6
Hitting
Penn St. .394·Minnesota .313
Longest run
Penn St. 6·Minnesota 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Minnesota above 50 · Penn St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.6% PENNSTrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.6% to Penn St. — set 4, PENNST 23-21 MINN. Bad set by Stella Swenson. MINN win probability 21% → 11%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PENNST 38.0%62.0% MINN

Penn St. wins

3-0
8.1%
3-1
13.8%
3-2
16.1%

Minnesota wins

3-0
18.3%
3-1
23.7%
3-2
20.0%
PENNST break %
40.7% vs this opp
MINN break %
43.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Stella SwensonBad set+10.6%

    Bad set by Stella Swenson

    Set 4 · PENNST 23-21 MINN · PENNST 79% → 89%

  2. 02

    Kill by Whitney Lauenstein (set by Alexis Stucky)

    Set 4 · PENNST 22-21 MINN · PENNST 68% → 79%

  3. 03

    Makenna Crosson stuffed by Alexis Stucky & Gabrielle Nichols

    Set 4 · PENNST 21-21 MINN · PENNST 59% → 68%

  4. 04

    Kill by Whitney Lauenstein (set by Stella Swenson)

    Set 4 · PENNST 24-21 MINN · PENNST 89% → 97%

  5. 05
    Kelly KinneyKill+7.5%

    Kill by Kelly Kinney (set by Stella Swenson)

    Set 4 · PENNST 19-21 MINN · MINN 37% → 45%

  6. 06
    Kennedy MartinAttack error+7.3%

    Attack error by Kennedy Martin

    Set 4 · PENNST 18-19 MINN · MINN 30% → 37%

  7. 07
    Elena HoeckeKill+6.5%

    Kill by Elena Hoecke (set by Stella Swenson)

    Set 4 · PENNST 17-17 MINN · MINN 24% → 30%

  8. 08

    Elena Hoecke stuffed by Kendall Northern & Haley Burgdorf

    Set 4 · PENNST 17-15 MINN · PENNST 74% → 81%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
434362.500001120111.535.5
410223.3481014100010
46212.33310000132.58.5
4328.1255521150010.55.5
4306.50020043010.53.5
4326.16700200010.53.5
49125.32001122010.510.5
4000–312600001
4000–200900000
4000–002510000
2000–001000000
Team totals6812142.3946441157728694
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422451.3531116000023
46414.14300200111.57.5
4305.600451070010.54.5
4205.400000000213
4000–0311200003
34114.214100000004
414330.3670000002115
45215.200110200006
4000–012100001
4000–200310000
4000–101100000
4000–3001830000
Team totals5614134.313547750416488

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 PENNST · MINN 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 PENNSTMINN 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 3 PENNSTMINN 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 PENNSTMINN 5

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 6 PENNSTMINN 5

Bars above the line = Minnesota leads, below = Penn St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Penn St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
56%10/18
2
56%10/18
55%12/22
3
56%10/18
33%5/15
4
80%8/10
38%5/13
5
53%8/15
33%4/12
6
46%6/13
46%6/13
All
58%52/89
45%42/93

Minnesota

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
27%3/11
2
56%10/18
23%3/13
3
56%9/16
55%12/22
4
57%8/14
31%4/13
5
100%8/8
43%6/14
6
35%6/17
56%9/16
All
55%51/93
42%37/89

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#PENNST-MINNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MINNMINNKillCarly Gilkset Stella Swenson+2.3
21-1MINNPENNSTServe errMinnesota+1.7
31-2PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.7
42-2MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.7
52-3PENNSTMINN×3KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.7
62-4MINNMINN×3Bad setAlexis Stucky+2.3
72-5MINNMINN×3KillElena Hoecke+2.2
83-5MINNPENNST×4KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+1.5
94-5PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errMckenna Wucherer+2.3
105-5PENNSTPENNST×4KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+2.6
116-5PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errElena Hoecke+2.7
126-6PENNSTMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Mckenna Wucherer+1.9
137-6MINNPENNSTServe errMinnesota+2.0
147-7PENNSTMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+1.9
157-8MINNMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+2.8
168-8MINNPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.0
178-9PENNSTMINNServe errPenn St.+2.0
189-9MINNPENNST×4KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.0
1910-9PENNSTPENNST×4KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+3.1
2011-9PENNSTPENNST×4AcePenn St.aced Zeynep Palabiyik+3.2
2112-9PENNSTPENNST×4KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+3.1
2212-10PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.9
2313-10MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.3
2413-11PENNSTMINNAttack errKennedy Martin+2.0
2514-11MINNPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+2.4
2614-12PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.0
2715-12MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.4
2815-13PENNSTMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+2.0
2916-13MINNPENNST×3Serve errMinnesota+2.5
3017-13PENNSTPENNST×3KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+3.1
3118-13PENNSTPENNST×3AcePenn St.aced Kate Thibault+2.5
3218-14PENNSTMINN×3KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+1.2
3318-15MINNMINN×3Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+2.4
3418-16MINNMINN×3KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+3.1
3519-16MINNPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+2.9
3619-17PENNSTMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Carly Gilk+2.2
3719-18MINNMINNAceMinnesotaaced Haley Burgdorf+4.0
3820-18MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.5
3921-18PENNSTPENNSTAcePenn St.aced Zeynep Palabiyik+4.4
4021-19PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.2
4122-19MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.3
4223-19PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.1
4323-20PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.0
4423-21MINNMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson+2.6
4524-21MINNPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+3.5
4624-22PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.3
4725-22MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.2
Set 2
11-0PENNSTPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.9
22-0PENNSTPENNSTAttack errCarly Gilk+3.0
32-1PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.0
43-1MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.2
53-2PENNSTMINNServe errPenn St.+2.0
64-2MINNPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+2.2
75-2PENNSTPENNST×3KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+3.1
86-2PENNSTPENNST×3AcePenn St.aced Zeynep Palabiyik+3.0
96-3PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.8
106-4MINNMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson+2.9
117-4MINNPENNSTServe errMinnesota+2.3
127-5PENNSTMINNServe errPenn St.+2.1
138-5MINNPENNSTServe errMinnesota+2.4
148-6PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.1
159-6MINNPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+2.4
169-7PENNSTMINNBlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Jordan Taylor, Kelly Kinney+2.1
1710-7MINNPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Whitney Lauenstein+2.5
1810-8PENNSTMINNKillCarly Gilkset Stella Swenson+2.2
1911-8MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.6
2011-9PENNSTMINN×3Serve errLexi Gin+2.2
2111-10MINNMINN×3KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+3.5
2211-11MINNMINN×3BlockedGabrielle Nicholsblk Elena Hoecke+3.7
2312-11MINNPENNSTBlockedElena Hoeckeblk Gabrielle Nichols, Emmi Sellman+2.8
2413-11PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+4.0
2513-12PENNSTMINNKillStella Swensonset Kate Thibault+2.6
2614-12MINNPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+3.0
2714-13PENNSTMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+2.7
2815-13MINNPENNSTServe errMinnesota+3.1
2915-14PENNSTMINNServe errPenn St.+2.8
3015-15MINNMINNAceMinnesotaaced Haley Burgdorf+4.4
3116-15MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+3.4
3217-15PENNSTPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Stella Swenson+4.8
3317-16PENNSTMINNServe errPenn St.+3.0
3418-16MINNPENNST×3KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+3.6
3519-16PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+4.7
3620-16PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedMckenna Wuchererblk Gabrielle Nichols, Kennedy Martin+3.9
3720-17PENNSTMINNKillCarly Gilkset Stella Swenson+1.8
3820-18MINNMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+3.7
3921-18MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.7
4021-19PENNSTMINNKillCarly Gilkset Stella Swenson+2.6
4122-19MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.9
4222-20PENNSTMINNServe errPenn St.+2.5
4323-20MINNPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+4.1
4424-20PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.3
4525-20PENNSTPENNST×3KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+1.0
Set 3
10-1MINNMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.2
20-2MINNMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.1
31-2MINNPENNST×3KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.5
42-2PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.2
53-2PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.4
63-3PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.6
74-3MINNPENNSTBlockedMckenna Wuchererblk Kennedy Martin+1.7
84-4PENNSTMINN×3KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.7
94-5MINNMINN×3Attack errKendall Northern+2.4
104-6MINNMINN×3KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+2.3
115-6MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.6
125-7PENNSTMINNKillStella Swenson+1.6
135-8MINNMINNAceMinnesotaaced Lexi Gin+2.2
146-8MINNPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.4
157-8PENNSTPENNST×3Attack errKelly Kinney+2.3
168-8PENNSTPENNST×3Attack errKelly Kinney+2.6
178-9PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.9
188-10MINNMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+2.6
199-10MINNPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
209-11PENNSTMINN×5KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+1.9
219-12MINNMINN×5KillJordan Taylorset Stella Swenson+2.4
229-13MINNMINN×5KillMckenna Wuchererset Makenna Crosson+2.1
239-14MINNMINN×5AceMinnesotaaced Whitney Lauenstein+1.7
249-15MINNMINN×5AceMinnesotaaced Haley Burgdorf+1.3
2510-15MINNPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+0.7
2611-15PENNSTPENNSTAttack errMakenna Crosson+1.3
2711-16PENNSTMINNServe errAlexis Stucky+1.2
2812-16MINNPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.9
2913-16PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
3014-16PENNSTPENNST×3KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+2.4
3114-17PENNSTMINNServe errWhitney Lauenstein+2.0
3215-17MINNPENNSTAttack errMckenna Wucherer+1.7
3316-17PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+3.1
3416-18PENNSTMINNKillStella Swensonset Kate Thibault+2.5
3516-19MINNMINNAceMinnesotaaced Emmi Sellman+3.1
3617-19MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
3717-20PENNSTMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson+2.3
3818-20MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
3918-21PENNSTMINNKillJordan Taylorset Stella Swenson+2.4
4018-22MINNMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Zeynep Palabiyik+2.3
4119-22MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.9
4219-23PENNSTMINN×3KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+1.5
4319-24MINNMINN×3KillMakenna Crossonset Zeynep Palabiyik+0.9
4419-25MINNMINN×3KillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+0.2
Set 4
11-0PENNSTPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Haley Burgdorf+3.8
21-1PENNSTMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+2.7
32-1MINNPENNST×6KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+2.8
43-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+4.1
54-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+4.1
65-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+3.9
76-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillKennedy Martinset Jocelyn Nathan+3.6
87-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillKennedy Martinset Gabrielle Nichols+3.3
97-2PENNSTMINNAttack errAlexis Stucky+1.9
107-3MINNMINNBlockedEmmi Sellmanblk Stella Swenson, Elena Hoecke+3.1
118-3MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.7
128-4PENNSTMINNServe errAva Falduto+2.2
138-5MINNMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Zeynep Palabiyik+3.6
149-5MINNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.0
159-6PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.6
1610-6MINNPENNSTServe errMinnesota+3.1
1710-7PENNSTMINNBlockedKendall Northernblk Jordan Taylor, Kelly Kinney+2.6
1811-7MINNPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+3.1
1911-8PENNSTMINNServe errAva Jurevicius+2.6
2012-8MINNPENNSTServe errMinnesota+3.2
2112-9PENNSTMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+2.6
2212-10MINNMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Olivia Swenson+4.3
2313-10MINNPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.6
2414-10PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedElena Hoeckeblk Gabrielle Nichols+4.7
2515-10PENNSTPENNST×3KillEmmi Sellmanset Jocelyn Nathan+4.0
2615-11PENNSTMINN×5KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+2.1
2715-12MINNMINN×5Attack errKennedy Martin+3.8
2815-13MINNMINN×5AceMinnesotaaced Emmi Sellman+4.6
2915-14MINNMINN×5KillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson+5.3
3015-15MINNMINN×5Attack errGabrielle Nichols+5.8
3116-15MINNPENNSTKillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky+4.5
3217-15PENNSTPENNSTBlockedElena Hoeckeblk Kendall Northern, Haley Burgdorf+6.4
3317-16PENNSTMINNBad setAlexis Stucky+4.1
3417-17MINNMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson+6.5
3518-17MINNPENNSTKillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky+5.1
3618-18PENNSTMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+4.9
3718-19MINNMINNAttack errKennedy Martin+7.3
3819-19MINNPENNSTKillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky+5.2
3919-20PENNSTMINNAttack errAlexis Stucky+5.6
4019-21MINNMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+7.5
4120-21MINNPENNST×6KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+4.4
4221-21PENNSTPENNST×6BlockedMakenna Crossonblk Alexis Stucky, Gabrielle Nichols+8.6
4322-21PENNSTPENNST×6KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+10.5
4423-21PENNSTPENNST×6Bad setStella Swenson+10.6
4524-21PENNSTPENNST×6KillWhitney Lauensteinset Stella Swenson+7.8
4625-21PENNSTPENNST×6KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+3.1

Score shown after each rally, Penn St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).