FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayCUSA

0:3

HomeACC

Duke def. FIU 3–0

(25-22, 28-26, 25-13)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FIU	22	26	13	0
DUKE	25	28	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DUKE above 50 · FIU below

Biggest swing: 6.9% to Duke — set 2, FIU 23-24 DUKE. Bad set by Mariana Silva. DUKE win probability 81% → 88%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

FIU 27.8%72.2% DUKE

FIU wins

3-0

5.1%

3-1

9.7%

3-2

13.0%

Duke wins

3-0

24.8%

3-1

27.7%

3-2

19.7%

FIU break %: 39.5% vs this opp
DUKE break %: 44.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mariana SilvaBad set+6.9%
Bad set by Mariana Silva
Set 2 · FIU 23-24 DUKE · DUKE 81% → 88%
02
Lana SesarAttack error+6.2%
Attack error by Lana Sesar
Set 2 · FIU 26-28 DUKE · DUKE 88% → 95%
03
Jillian HuckabeyKill+4.9%
Kill by Jillian Huckabey (set by Mariana Silva)
Set 2 · FIU 24-24 DUKE · FIU 12% → 17%
04
Nataly MoravecKill+4.9%
Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 2 · FIU 24-25 DUKE · DUKE 83% → 88%
05
DUKE serverService error+4.9%
Duke service error
Set 2 · FIU 25-25 DUKE · FIU 12% → 17%
06
FIU serverService error+4.9%
FIU service error
Set 2 · FIU 25-26 DUKE · DUKE 83% → 88%
07
Lana SesarKill+4.9%
Kill by Lana Sesar (set by Mariana Silva)
Set 2 · FIU 26-26 DUKE · FIU 12% → 17%
08
Ashby ZubchevichKill+4.9%
Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 2 · FIU 26-27 DUKE · DUKE 83% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

FIUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Jillian HuckabeyOH	3	9	2	27	.259	0	2	0	4	1	0	0	11
8Chiara FabbriniOPP	3	9	1	18	.444	0	1	2	0	0	2	1	11
11Lana SesarOH	3	7	3	18	.222	1	2	2	7	5	1	0.5	9.5
15Rayne WilliamsMB	3	2	1	9	.111	1	0	3	1	0	2	1	3
17Kamryn ItzenMB	3	1	4	7	-.429	1	0	0	0	1	4	2	3
1Ivona LazovicS	3	2	0	4	.500	10	1	0	7	0	0	0	3
7Marta LazzarinL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	0	0	7	1	0	0	0
5Mariana SilvaS	3	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
16Gina FedrigoOPP	2	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	4.5
12Kindyl KilarOH	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
18Tiyana CisseOPP	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
9Nichole KellyMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	11	94	.234	27	6	7	32	12	12	6	61

Dukehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Ashby ZubchevichOH	3	12	3	22	.409	3	6	3	4	0	0	0	0	18
8Nataly MoravecOH	3	16	2	31	.452	1	1	2	6	2	0	1	0.5	17.5
12Avery HamlinOH	3	7	1	16	.375	0	4	2	6	0	0	2	1	12
0Zoe Gillen-MalveauxMB	3	8	3	15	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
5Breonna GossMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	6
23Nikki QuinnS	3	0	0	0	–	38	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
19Alyce DonoghueL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
10Mailinh GodschallL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	13	3	0	0	0	0
22Charlotte GlassS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Grace ThrowerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	9	91	.418	46	12	11	42	6	1	6	4	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 FIU · DUKE 7

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 6 FIUDUKE 5

Set 2

26-28

Longest run 5 FIUDUKE 4

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 3 FIUDUKE 7

Bars above the line = Duke leads, below = FIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

FIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	50%8/16
2	43%6/14	42%5/12
3	35%6/17	0%0/6
4	50%6/12	40%4/10
5	100%6/6	50%6/12
6	67%6/9	14%1/7
All	49%37/76	38%24/63

Duke

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	33%3/9
2	64%7/11	65%13/20
3	100%6/6	57%8/14
4	43%6/14	63%10/16
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	75%6/8	14%1/7
All	62%39/63	51%39/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	FIU-DUKE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
2	0-2	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
3	1-2	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Ivona Lazovic	+1.4
4	1-3	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Ashby Zubchevich	+1.4
5	1-4	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Kamryn Itzen		+1.8
6	2-4	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Ivona Lazovic	+1.3
7	2-5	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
8	2-6	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.6
9	3-6	DUKE	FIU	Attack err	Chiara Fabbrini		+1.1
10	3-7	FIU	DUKE	Serve err	FIU server		+1.2
11	3-8	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Rayne Williams		+1.4
12	4-8	DUKE	FIU×3	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Mariana Silva	+0.9
13	5-8	FIU	FIU×3	Ace	FIU server	aced Mailinh Godschall	+1.5
14	6-8	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Kamryn Itzen	+1.9
15	6-9	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
16	7-9	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Mariana Silva	+1.4
17	7-10	FIU	DUKE	Serve err	FIU server		+1.5
18	7-11	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	DUKE server	aced Jillian Huckabey	+1.8
19	8-11	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Kamryn Itzen	set Mariana Silva	+1.2
20	8-12	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nataly Moravec	+1.3
21	8-13	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Chiara Fabbrini	blk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss	+1.5
22	9-13	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.9
23	10-13	FIU	FIU	Ace	FIU server	aced Nataly Moravec	+1.6
24	10-14	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.4
25	11-14	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Ivona Lazovic	+1.2
26	11-15	FIU	DUKE×5	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
27	11-16	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
28	11-17	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.1
29	11-18	DUKE	DUKE×5	Ace	DUKE server	aced Team	+0.7
30	11-19	DUKE	DUKE×5	Ace	DUKE server	aced Lana Sesar	+0.4
31	12-19	DUKE	FIU×3	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.2
32	13-19	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Jillian Huckabey		+0.4
33	14-19	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Rayne Williams	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.6
34	14-20	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
35	14-21	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
36	15-21	DUKE	FIU	Attack err	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux		+0.2
37	15-22	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.3
38	16-22	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Mariana Silva	+0.1
39	16-23	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Mailinh Godschall	+0.2
40	17-23	DUKE	FIU×6	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Mariana Silva	+0.1
41	18-23	FIU	FIU×6	Attack err	Avery Hamlin	blk Kamryn Itzen, Chiara Fabbrini	+0.2
42	19-23	FIU	FIU×6	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.4
43	20-23	FIU	FIU×6	Ace	FIU server	aced Mailinh Godschall	+0.9
44	21-23	FIU	FIU×6	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+1.9
45	22-23	FIU	FIU×6	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Marta Lazzarin	+3.7
46	22-24	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+4.2
47	22-25	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	DUKE server	aced Lana Sesar	+3.0
Set 2
1	1-0	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Marta Lazzarin	+1.3
2	1-1	FIU	DUKE	Serve err	FIU server		+1.2
3	2-1	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Ivona Lazovic	+1.3
4	2-2	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
5	3-2	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Marta Lazzarin	+1.4
6	3-3	FIU	DUKE	Serve err	FIU server		+1.3
7	3-4	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.8
8	4-4	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Marta Lazzarin	+1.3
9	4-5	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
10	5-5	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+1.4
11	5-6	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
12	5-7	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.8
13	6-7	DUKE	FIU	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Kamryn Itzen, Gina Fedrigo	+1.3
14	6-8	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
15	7-8	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+1.3
16	7-9	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Ashby Zubchevich	+1.3
17	8-9	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Ivona Lazovic	+1.3
18	8-10	FIU	DUKE×3	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
19	8-11	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Jillian Huckabey		+1.7
20	8-12	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
21	9-12	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.9
22	9-13	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.1
23	10-13	DUKE	FIU×5	Kill	Gina Fedrigo	set Mariana Silva	+0.9
24	11-13	FIU	FIU×5	Kill	Gina Fedrigo	set Nataly Moravec	+1.7
25	12-13	FIU	FIU×5	Attack err	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	blk Lana Sesar, Rayne Williams	+2.1
26	13-13	FIU	FIU×5	Ace	FIU server	aced Nataly Moravec	+2.4
27	14-13	FIU	FIU×5	Attack err	Nataly Moravec	blk Rayne Williams, Gina Fedrigo	+2.7
28	14-14	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.8
29	15-14	DUKE	FIU	Attack err	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux		+2.1
30	16-14	FIU	FIU	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Kamryn Itzen, Gina Fedrigo	+3.0
31	16-15	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
32	17-15	DUKE	FIU×3	Serve err	DUKE server		+2.3
33	18-15	FIU	FIU×3	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Kamryn Itzen, Chiara Fabbrini	+3.0
34	19-15	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Marta Lazzarin	+2.6
35	19-16	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
36	20-16	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+1.9
37	21-16	FIU	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.9
38	21-17	FIU	DUKE×4	Serve err	FIU server		+0.8
39	21-18	DUKE	DUKE×4	Ace	DUKE server	aced Lana Sesar	+1.7
40	21-19	DUKE	DUKE×4	Ace	DUKE server	aced Lana Sesar	+2.5
41	21-20	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+3.4
42	22-20	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+3.3
43	22-21	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.5
44	22-22	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+4.8
45	23-22	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Ivona Lazovic	+4.3
46	23-23	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+4.0
47	23-24	DUKE	DUKE	Bad set	Mariana Silva		+6.9
48	24-24	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Mariana Silva	+4.9
49	24-25	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+4.9
50	25-25	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+4.9
51	25-26	FIU	DUKE	Serve err	FIU server		+4.9
52	26-26	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Mariana Silva	+4.9
53	26-27	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+4.9
54	26-28	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Lana Sesar		+6.2
Set 3
1	0-1	FIU	DUKE×7	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
2	0-2	DUKE	DUKE×7	Ace	DUKE server	aced Team	+0.9
3	0-3	DUKE	DUKE×7	Attack err	Kamryn Itzen	blk Breonna Goss	+0.8
4	0-4	DUKE	DUKE×7	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Ashby Zubchevich	+0.7
5	0-5	DUKE	DUKE×7	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Jillian Huckabey	+0.6
6	0-6	DUKE	DUKE×7	Ace	DUKE server	aced Marta Lazzarin	+0.5
7	0-7	DUKE	DUKE×7	Ace	DUKE server	aced Kamryn Itzen	+0.4
8	1-7	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.2
9	2-7	FIU	FIU	Bad set	Nikki Quinn		+0.4
10	2-8	FIU	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.4
11	2-9	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Kamryn Itzen	blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nataly Moravec	+0.4
12	2-10	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+0.3
13	2-11	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Kamryn Itzen		+0.2
14	3-11	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Ivona Lazovic	set Lana Sesar	+0.1
15	3-12	FIU	DUKE×4	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
16	3-13	DUKE	DUKE×4	Ace	DUKE server	aced Team	+0.1
17	3-14	DUKE	DUKE×4	Ace	DUKE server	aced Team	+0.1
18	3-15	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Jillian Huckabey		+0.0
19	4-15	DUKE	FIU×3	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.0
20	5-15	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Rayne Williams		+0.0
21	6-15	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Jillian Huckabey		+0.1
22	6-16	FIU	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
23	6-17	DUKE	DUKE×3	Ace	DUKE server	aced Lana Sesar	+0.1
24	6-18	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Mailinh Godschall	+0.0
25	7-18	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Rayne Williams	+0.0
26	7-19	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
27	8-19	DUKE	FIU	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.0
28	8-20	FIU	DUKE	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
29	8-21	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Lana Sesar	blk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin	+0.0
30	9-21	DUKE	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Mariana Silva	+0.0
31	10-21	FIU	FIU	Ace	FIU server	aced Mailinh Godschall	+0.0
32	10-22	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
33	10-23	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Lana Sesar		+0.0
34	11-23	DUKE	FIU×3	Kill	Ivona Lazovic		+0.0
35	12-23	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Gina Fedrigo	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
36	13-23	FIU	FIU×3	Ace	FIU server	aced Team	+0.0
37	13-24	FIU	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
38	13-25	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, FIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.