Final · 5 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026 · Neutral site

Buffalo def. UIC 3–2

Buffalo beat UIC 3-2 (25-22, 25-18, 17-25, 23-25, 15-13) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026 at a neutral site. Buffalo's Angelina Siepierski led with 15 kills, and Maddie Mitchell added 13 digs.

Data through · final Aug 28

Set12345Sets
BUFF25251723153
UIC22182525132

Win probability

UIC above 50 · Buffalo below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+19.1% BUFFrally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 19.1% to Buffalo — set 5, BUFF 15-13 UIC. Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell). UIC win probability 19% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 47.8%52.2% UIC

Buffalo wins

3-0
11.6%
3-1
17.8%
3-2
18.4%

UIC wins

3-0
13.5%
3-1
19.7%
3-2
19.1%
BUFF break %
40.8% vs this opp
UIC break %
41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sydney BellKill+19.1%

    Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 5 · BUFF 15-13 UIC · BUFF 81% → 100%

  2. 02

    Hailey Campagna stuffed by Mihaela Harizanova & Ana Petrides

    Set 4 · BUFF 23-25 UIC · UIC 37% → 52%

  3. 03
    Hailey CampagnaKill+14.4%

    Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 5 · BUFF 14-12 UIC · BUFF 74% → 89%

  4. 04
    Hailey CampagnaAttack error+12.4%

    Attack error by Hailey Campagna

    Set 5 · BUFF 13-12 UIC · UIC 13% → 26%

  5. 05

    Kill by Angelina Siepierski (set by Sadie Gladhill)

    Set 5 · BUFF 9-7 UIC · BUFF 60% → 72%

  6. 06
    BuffaloAce+11.9%

    Buffalo ace on Ava Young

    Set 5 · BUFF 12-9 UIC · BUFF 76% → 88%

  7. 07
    Gabi PeterKill+11.5%

    Kill by Gabi Peter (set by Mihaela Harizanova)

    Set 5 · BUFF 7-7 UIC · UIC 37% → 49%

  8. 08
    Ana PetridesAttack error+10.0%

    Attack error by Ana Petrides

    Set 5 · BUFF 11-9 UIC · BUFF 66% → 76%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515529.3450037300015
54216.12500030153.57.5
56112.417100100217
5407.57142101300427
5000–111820001
4141143.0701005100014
511524.25020030132.513.5
5000–012200001
5000–000200000
5000–401900000
310325.2800126000011
2112.000000010001
1001.000000000000
1000–300000000
Team totals6528159.23354495982149105
UIChome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515637.24303080010.518.5
510430.20002040195.517.5
514129.4480003004216
56413.15400020031.57.5
5416.500380280052.56.5
54720-.1501011200004
27Ava YoungL/DS
52021.0003011120002
4037-.429010300001
4000–011620001
2319.222000001225
2000–710300001
1034-.750000000000
Team totals5830157.178498560422414103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 BUFF · UIC 7

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 6 BUFFUIC 7

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 BUFFUIC 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 BUFFUIC 7

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 3 BUFFUIC 4

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 5 BUFFUIC 3

Bars above the line = UIC leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%9/18
27%3/11
2
73%8/11
53%9/17
3
44%8/18
11%1/9
4
53%8/15
56%10/18
5
86%6/7
38%5/13
6
55%6/11
54%7/13
All
56%45/80
43%35/81

UIC

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
61%11/18
2
47%8/17
31%4/13
3
67%8/12
43%6/14
4
44%8/18
56%10/18
5
70%7/10
30%3/10
6
50%6/12
14%1/7
All
57%46/81
44%35/80

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

208 rallies

#BUFF-UICSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UICBUFFAttack errEmma Colombari+1.8
21-1BUFFUICServe errBuffalo+1.8
32-1UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
42-2BUFFUIC×3KillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+1.8
52-3UICUIC×3KillSasha Pellettieriset Paulina Ströh+2.7
62-4UICUIC×3KillAva Youngset Maddie Mitchell+2.6
73-4UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
83-5BUFFUICKillAva Young+1.9
94-5UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
104-6BUFFUICKillAna Petridesset Paulina Ströh+1.9
115-6UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
125-7BUFFUICKillJillian Gibbonsset Paulina Ströh+2.0
136-7UICBUFFServe errUIC+1.9
147-7BUFFBUFFAttack errTamara Kisic+2.9
157-8BUFFUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+2.1
168-8UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
178-9BUFFUICKillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+2.2
189-9UICBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.2
199-10BUFFUIC×7KillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+2.2
209-11UICUIC×7KillAna Petrides+3.2
219-12UICUIC×7Attack errManoela Forlin+3.0
229-13UICUIC×7BlockedManoela Forlinblk Ana Petrides, Sasha Pellettieri+2.6
239-14UICUIC×7KillEmma Colombariset Ava Young+2.2
249-15UIC
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
259-16UICUIC×7KillSasha Pellettieriset Paulina Ströh+1.2
2610-16UICBUFF×6KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
2711-16BUFFBUFF×6KillSydney Bellset Sadie Gladhill+1.2
2812-16BUFFBUFF×6KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
2913-16BUFFBUFF×6KillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+2.2
3014-16BUFFBUFF×6BlockedEmma Colombariblk Sydney Bell+2.9
3115-16BUFFBUFF×6BlockedEmma Colombariblk Sydney Bell, Ava Kanj+3.5
3215-17BUFFUIC×3KillAna Petridesset Paulina Ströh+2.8
3315-18UICUIC×3BlockedAva Kanjblk Ana Petrides+3.6
3415-19UICUIC×3AceUICaced Manoela Forlin+2.9
3516-19UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.5
3617-19BUFFBUFFBlockedTamara Kisicblk Sydney Bell, Ava Kanj+3.0
3717-20BUFFUICKillAna Petridesset Paulina Ströh+2.7
3818-20UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
3919-20BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Ava Young+4.2
4019-21BUFFUICKillSasha Pellettieriset Paulina Ströh+3.7
4120-21UICBUFF×5KillAngelina Siepierskiset Abisola Adebayo+3.0
4221-21BUFFBUFF×5Attack errTamara Kisic+5.9
4322-21BUFFBUFF×5Attack errJillian Gibbons+6.9
4423-21BUFFBUFF×5KillAngelina Siepierski+6.7
4524-21BUFFBUFF×5KillAbisola Adebayo+4.7
4624-22BUFFUICKillTamara Kisicset Mihaela Harizanova+1.2
4725-22UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+3.0
Set 2
11-0BUFFBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+2.6
21-1BUFFUICAttack errSydney Bell+1.8
31-2UICUICKillEmma Colombari+2.7
42-2UICBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
53-2BUFFBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.8
64-2BUFFBUFF×3KillAngelina Siepierskiset Sadie Gladhill+2.8
74-3BUFFUICServe errBuffalo+1.8
85-3UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.0
95-4BUFFUICAttack errAbisola Adebayo+1.9
106-4UICBUFF×3KillMaddie Mitchell+2.0
117-4BUFFBUFF×3KillAva Kanjset Paulina Ströh+2.8
128-4BUFFBUFF×3Attack errMartina Cerrato+2.6
138-5BUFFUICServe errBuffalo+1.6
148-6UICUICAceUICaced Angelina Siepierski+2.6
159-6UICBUFFAttack errJillian Gibbons+2.0
169-7BUFFUICAttack errAva Kanj+1.8
1710-7UICBUFF×5KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
1811-7BUFFBUFF×5BlockedMartina Cerratoblk Sydney Bell, Ava Kanj+2.7
1912-7BUFFBUFF×5Bad setMihaela Harizanova+2.3
2013-7BUFFBUFF×5KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
2114-7BUFFBUFF×5KillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
2214-8BUFFUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+0.7
2314-9UICUICAttack errSydney Bell+1.4
2415-9UICBUFFServe errUIC+1.3
2515-10BUFFUICKillJillian Gibbonsset Mihaela Harizanova+0.9
2616-10UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
2716-11BUFFUICAttack errAngelina Siepierski+0.9
2817-11UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.2
2918-11BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.2
3018-12BUFFUIC×3Serve errBuffalo+0.5
3118-13UICUIC×3Attack errManoela Forlin+1.1
3218-14UICUIC×3AceUICaced Chloe Brown+1.6
3319-14UICBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
3420-14BUFFBUFF×3BlockedMartina Cerratoblk Maddie Mitchell, Ava Kanj+1.5
3521-14BUFFBUFF×3Attack errSasha Pellettieri+0.9
3621-15BUFFUICBlockedManoela Forlinblk Sasha Pellettieri+0.3
3721-16UICUICAceUICaced Chloe Brown+0.7
3822-16UICBUFFKillMaddie Mitchell+0.8
3922-17BUFFUICBlockedManoela Forlinblk Sasha Pellettieri, Jillian Gibbons+0.4
4023-17UICBUFFAttack errTamara Kisic+0.7
4123-18BUFFUICKillTamara Kisicset Mihaela Harizanova+0.2
4224-18UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Sydney Bell+0.5
4325-18BUFFBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Manoela Forlin+0.1
Set 3
11-0UICBUFFBlockedJillian Gibbonsblk Ava Kanj+1.3
21-1BUFFUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+1.3
32-1UICBUFFAttack errAna Petrides+1.3
42-2BUFFUIC×5KillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+1.3
52-3UICUIC×5BlockedSydney Bellblk Emma Colombari, Ana Petrides+1.9
62-4UICUIC×5AceUICaced Angelina Siepierski+1.9
72-5UICUIC×5KillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+1.8
82-6UICUIC×5KillAna Petridesset Mihaela Harizanova+1.7
93-6UICBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
104-6BUFFBUFFAttack errAna Petrides+1.7
114-7BUFFUIC×4BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Ana Petrides, Mihaela Harizanova+1.3
124-8UICUIC×4Attack errAngelina Siepierski+1.7
134-9UICUIC×4BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Mihaela Harizanova, Ana Petrides+1.5
144-10UICUIC×4KillAna Petridesset Mihaela Harizanova+1.3
155-10UICBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
166-10BUFFBUFFAttack errElizabeth King+1.3
176-11BUFFUICBlockedManoela Forlinblk Mihaela Harizanova, Ana Petrides+1.1
187-11UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
198-11BUFFBUFFBlockedElizabeth Kingblk Maddie Mitchell, Ava Kanj+1.6
208-12BUFFUICKillJillian Gibbonsset Mihaela Harizanova+1.3
219-12UICBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
229-13BUFFUIC×7KillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+1.3
239-14UICUIC×7KillGabi Peterset Ava Young+1.6
249-15UICUIC×7Attack errSydney Bell+1.2
259-16UICUIC×7KillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+0.9
269-17UICUIC×7Attack errManoela Forlin+0.6
279-18UICUIC×7KillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+0.3
289-19UICUIC×7Attack errSydney Bell+0.2
2910-19UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
3010-20BUFFUICKillEmma Colombariset Tamara Kisic+0.1
3110-21UICUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+0.1
3211-21UICBUFFServe errUIC·
3311-22BUFFUICKillAna Petridesset Mihaela Harizanova·
3412-22UICBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Michal Benaim·
3513-22BUFFBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim·
3614-22BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Lianna Ortiz·
3714-23BUFFUICKillMihaela Harizanovaset Michal Benaim+0.1
3814-24UICUICAceUICaced Abbie Willis·
3915-24UICBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim·
4016-24BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Lianna Ortiz·
4117-24BUFFBUFF×3Attack errElizabeth King·
4217-25BUFFUICKillAna Petridesset Mihaela Harizanova·
Set 4
10-1BUFFUICKillJillian Gibbonsset Mihaela Harizanova+2.4
20-2UICUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+3.4
31-2UICBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.3
42-2BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlin+3.5
52-3BUFFUICAttack errManoela Forlin+2.5
63-3UICBUFFAttack errGabi Peter+2.5
73-4BUFFUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+2.6
84-4UICBUFF×3Attack errAna Petrides+2.6
95-4BUFFBUFF×3BlockedEmma Colombariblk Maddie Mitchell, Abisola Adebayo+3.8
106-4BUFFBUFF×3BlockedEmma Colombariblk Maddie Mitchell, Abisola Adebayo+3.8
116-5BUFFUICKillAna Petridesset Ava Young+2.5
126-6UICUICAttack errManoela Forlin+3.9
137-6UICBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.8
148-6BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Sadie Gladhill+4.0
158-7BUFFUICKillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+2.7
169-7UICBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Chloe Brown+2.9
179-8BUFFUICKillAna Petridesset Mihaela Harizanova+2.7
189-9UICUICKillJillian Gibbonsset Mihaela Harizanova+4.2
1910-9UICBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+3.1
2010-10BUFFUICServe errBuffalo+3.0
2111-10UICBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+3.2
2212-10BUFFBUFFAttack errJillian Gibbons+4.6
2312-11BUFFUICKillTamara Kisicset Mihaela Harizanova+3.0
2413-11UICBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+3.3
2513-12BUFFUIC×4KillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+3.1
2613-13UICUIC×4BlockedManoela Forlinblk Gabi Peter, Ana Petrides+4.9
2713-14UICUIC×4BlockedManoela Forlinblk Gabi Peter, Ana Petrides+5.1
2813-15UICUIC×4BlockedAbbie Willisblk Gabi Peter, Ana Petrides+5.0
2914-15UICBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+3.2
3014-16BUFFUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+3.6
3115-16UICBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Maddie Mitchell+3.3
3216-16BUFFBUFFKillAva Kanj+5.6
3316-17BUFFUICKillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+4.1
3417-17UICBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+4.1
3517-18BUFFUICKillMihaela Harizanova+4.4
3617-19UICUICBlockedHailey Campagnablk Jillian Gibbons, Mihaela Harizanova+6.2
3718-19UICBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+3.8
3818-20BUFFUICServe errBuffalo+4.6
3919-20UICBUFFServe errUIC+3.9
4020-20BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+7.2
4120-21BUFFUICServe errBuffalo+5.7
4221-21UICBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+5.6
4321-22BUFFUICKillJillian Gibbonsset Mihaela Harizanova+6.5
4422-22UICBUFFKillMaddie Mitchell+6.2
4522-23BUFFUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+7.6
4623-23UICBUFFAttack errEmma Colombari+7.3
4723-24BUFFUICKillMihaela Harizanovaset Maddie Mitchell+9.5
4823-25UICUICBlockedHailey Campagnablk Mihaela Harizanova, Ana Petrides+15.0
Set 5
11-0BUFFBUFFAttack errTamara Kisic+9.0
21-1BUFFUICServe errBuffalo+6.2
31-2UICUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+9.2
42-2UICBUFF×5KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+6.4
53-2BUFFBUFF×5KillAngelina Siepierskiset Sydney Bell+9.7
64-2BUFFBUFF×5Attack errTamara Kisic+9.6
75-2BUFFBUFF×5KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+9.0
86-2BUFFBUFF×5Attack errMihaela Harizanova+7.8
96-3BUFFUIC×3Serve errBuffalo+4.3
106-4UICUIC×3BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Jillian Gibbons, Gabi Peter+7.9
116-5UICUIC×3KillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+9.6
127-5UICBUFFServe errUIC+7.7
137-6BUFFUICKillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+6.9
147-7UICUICKillGabi Peterset Mihaela Harizanova+11.5
158-7UICBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+8.7
169-7BUFFBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Sadie Gladhill+12.4
179-8BUFFUICKillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+7.5
1810-8UICBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+9.2
1910-9BUFFUICKillEmma Colombariset Mihaela Harizanova+7.8
2011-9UICBUFF×3Attack errAna Petrides+10.0
2112-9BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Ava Young+11.9
2213-9BUFFBUFF×3Attack errTamara Kisic+7.7
2313-10BUFFUIC×3KillMihaela Harizanova+2.4
2413-11UICUIC×3AceUICaced Angelina Siepierski+6.7
2513-12UICUIC×3Attack errHailey Campagna+12.4
2614-12UICBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+14.4
2714-13BUFFUICKillTamara Kisicset Mihaela Harizanova+7.8
2815-13UICBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+19.1

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).