Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

Saint Louis def. Buffalo 3–1

Saint Louis beat visiting Buffalo 3-1 (25-22, 25-15, 17-25, 25-14) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026. Ellie Rink led Saint Louis with 15 kills; Buffalo's Hailey Campagna had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Aug 28

Set1234Sets
BUFF221525141
ST LOU252517253

Win probability

Saint Louis above 50 · Buffalo below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.3% ST LOUrally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.3% to Saint Louis — set 1, BUFF 21-22 ST LOU. Sydney Bell stuffed by Ellie Rink & Kayla Jansen. ST LOU win probability 62% → 68%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 36.4%63.6% ST LOU

Buffalo wins

3-0
7.6%
3-1
13.1%
3-2
15.7%

Saint Louis wins

3-0
19.2%
3-1
24.4%
3-2
20.0%
BUFF break %
40.6% vs this opp
ST LOU break %
43.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Sydney Bell stuffed by Ellie Rink & Kayla Jansen

    Set 1 · BUFF 21-22 ST LOU · ST LOU 62% → 68%

  2. 02
    Ellie RinkKill+5.8%

    Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 1 · BUFF 21-23 ST LOU · ST LOU 68% → 74%

  3. 03

    Kill by Angelina Siepierski

    Set 1 · BUFF 21-20 ST LOU · BUFF 37% → 42%

  4. 04

    Angelina Siepierski stuffed by Kayla Jansen & Tea Kalajdzic

    Set 1 · BUFF 22-24 ST LOU · ST LOU 71% → 76%

  5. 05
    BuffaloService error+4.0%

    Buffalo service error

    Set 1 · BUFF 21-21 ST LOU · ST LOU 58% → 62%

  6. 06
    BuffaloAce+4.0%

    Buffalo ace on Anna Alexander

    Set 1 · BUFF 17-17 ST LOU · BUFF 33% → 37%

  7. 07
    BuffaloAce+3.7%

    Buffalo ace

    Set 4 · BUFF 10-8 ST LOU · BUFF 22% → 26%

  8. 08
    Sydney BellAttack error+3.7%

    Attack error by Sydney Bell

    Set 4 · BUFF 10-11 ST LOU · ST LOU 80% → 84%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416835.22900191010.516.5
48420.200000100219
4539.222000000005
41310-.200322150111.54.5
32511-.273021100004
2114.00000000031.52.5
4000–021100002
4001.0003001220000
4000–001310000
37529.0690101010008
3000–000500000
2205.40000000010.52.5
1000–300000000
Team totals4229124.105387547518576
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415533.3030035004217
413327.3701123200014
412223.43500020031.513.5
44110.300000003248
4308.375000301647
43111.1824111140010.54.5
4216.167003300002
4001.000222840002
4001.000312400001
Team totals5213120.325475134274161292

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 BUFF · ST LOU 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 BUFFST LOU 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 BUFFST LOU 3

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 BUFFST LOU 3

Set 4

14-25

Longest run 4 BUFFST LOU 6

Bars above the line = Saint Louis leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%9/15
46%6/13
2
36%8/22
50%9/18
3
78%7/9
38%5/13
4
44%7/16
30%3/10
5
37%7/19
50%7/14
6
60%6/10
22%2/9
All
48%44/91
42%32/77

Saint Louis

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%9/21
36%4/11
2
82%9/11
47%8/17
3
50%7/14
65%13/20
4
54%7/13
50%7/14
5
78%7/9
42%5/12
6
67%6/9
59%10/17
All
58%45/77
52%47/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

168 rallies

#BUFF-ST LOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ST LOUBUFFAttack errEllie Rink+1.8
21-1BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.7
32-1ST LOUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
43-1BUFFBUFFBlockedEllie Rinkblk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo+2.5
53-2BUFFST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.7
63-3ST LOUST LOUAttack errAngelina Siepierski+2.5
74-3ST LOUBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Anaya Cole+1.9
84-4BUFFST LOU×4KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.8
94-5ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errAngelina Siepierski+2.5
104-6ST LOUST LOU×4BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning+2.4
114-7ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errAngelina Siepierski+2.3
125-7ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+1.5
136-7BUFFBUFFAttack errAnna Alexander+2.4
146-8BUFFST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.8
157-8ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
167-9BUFFST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+1.9
177-10ST LOUST LOUAttack errAva Kanj+2.4
188-10ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+1.6
199-10BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Anna Alexander+2.6
209-11BUFFST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+2.0
2110-11ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.0
2211-11BUFFBUFFAttack errAnna Boatner+3.1
2311-12BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.3
2412-12ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+2.3
2512-13BUFFST LOUBlockedSydney Bellblk Kayla Jansen, Ellie Rink+2.3
2613-13ST LOUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+2.4
2713-14BUFFST LOU×4Attack errMaddie Mitchell+2.4
2813-15ST LOUST LOU×4KillAnna Alexander+3.3
2913-16ST LOUST LOU×4KillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+2.9
3013-17ST LOUST LOU×4Bad setMaddie Mitchell+2.4
3114-17ST LOUBUFF×4Serve errSaint Louis+1.4
3215-17BUFFBUFF×4KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.6
3316-17BUFFBUFF×4BlockedAnna Alexanderblk Abisola Adebayo, Maddie Mitchell+3.3
3417-17BUFFBUFF×4AceBuffaloaced Anna Alexander+4.0
3517-18BUFFST LOUServe errBuffalo+3.0
3618-18ST LOUBUFFBlockedJetta Brenningblk Abisola Adebayo, Hailey Campagna+3.1
3718-19BUFFST LOUAttack errHailey Campagna+3.3
3819-19ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+3.3
3919-20BUFFST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+3.6
4020-20ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+3.6
4121-20BUFFBUFFKillAngelina Siepierski+5.8
4221-21BUFFST LOU×3Serve errBuffalo+4.0
4321-22ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedSydney Bellblk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen+6.3
4421-23ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+5.8
4522-23ST LOUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+3.0
4622-24BUFFST LOUBlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic+4.9
4722-25ST LOUST LOUAceSaint Louisaced Hailey Campagna+3.6
Set 2
11-0BUFFBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
21-1BUFFST LOU×3Attack errAbisola Adebayo+1.5
31-2ST LOUST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.1
41-3ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedSydney Bellblk Anna Boatner, Ellie Rink+2.0
52-3ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+1.4
62-4BUFFST LOU×3KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.5
72-5ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errMaddie Mitchell+1.9
82-6ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedHailey Campagnablk Kayla Jansen+1.7
93-6ST LOUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+1.1
103-7BUFFST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+1.3
114-7ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+1.2
124-8BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.3
134-9ST LOUST LOUAttack errHailey Campagna+1.5
145-9ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+1.0
155-10BUFFST LOU×3Attack errHailey Campagna+1.1
165-11ST LOUST LOU×3KillJetta Brenningset Anna Alexander+1.3
175-12ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedManoela Forlinblk Anna Boatner+1.0
186-12ST LOUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.5
197-12BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlin+1.0
207-13BUFFST LOU×3KillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+0.9
217-14ST LOUST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.9
227-15ST LOUST LOU×3KillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+0.6
238-15ST LOUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.3
248-16BUFFST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.4
259-16ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+0.3
2610-16BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
2710-17BUFFST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.6
2810-18ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errHailey Campagna+0.5
2910-19ST LOUST LOU×3AceSaint Louisaced Anaya Cole+0.3
3011-19ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+0.1
3112-19BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
3212-20BUFFST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.3
3313-20ST LOUBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
3413-21BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.2
3514-21ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
3614-22BUFFST LOU×3KillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+0.2
3714-23ST LOUST LOU×3KillAnna Alexanderset Lucy Rankin+0.1
3814-24ST LOUST LOU×3Attack errHailey Campagna·
3915-24ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell·
4015-25BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning·
Set 3
10-1ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+1.2
21-1ST LOUBUFF×6KillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
32-1BUFFBUFF×6KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
43-1BUFFBUFF×6KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
54-1BUFFBUFF×6KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
65-1BUFFBUFF×6Attack errEllie Rink+1.2
76-1BUFFBUFF×6KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.2
86-2BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.7
97-2ST LOUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
107-3BUFFST LOUServe errBuffalo+0.7
118-3ST LOUBUFF×4Serve errSaint Louis+0.9
129-3BUFFBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
1310-3BUFFBUFF×4AceBuffaloaced Lara Zigic+0.9
1411-3BUFFBUFF×4BlockedAnna Alexanderblk Maddie Mitchell+0.7
1511-4BUFFST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+0.4
1611-5ST LOUST LOUAttack errHailey Campagna+0.7
1712-5ST LOUBUFFKillTehya Shawset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
1812-6BUFFST LOU×3KillAnna Alexanderset Lara Zigic+0.5
1912-7ST LOUST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.8
2012-8ST LOUST LOU×3AceSaint Louisaced Chloe Brown+1.0
2113-8ST LOUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
2213-9BUFFST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.7
2314-9ST LOUBUFFAttack errTea Kalajdzic+0.9
2414-10BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.7
2515-10ST LOUBUFFAttack errEllie Rink+0.9
2616-10BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Lara Zigic+1.0
2716-11BUFFST LOUServe errBuffalo+0.5
2816-12ST LOUST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Lara Zigic+0.9
2917-12ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+0.9
3017-13BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.7
3118-13ST LOUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
3218-14BUFFST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Lucy Rankin+0.6
3319-14ST LOUBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
3420-14BUFFBUFF×3Bad setEllie Rink+0.9
3521-14BUFFBUFF×3Attack errTamia Maddox+0.5
3621-15BUFFST LOUKillAnna Boatnerset Lucy Rankin+0.2
3721-16ST LOUST LOUBlockedMaddie Mitchellblk Anna Boatner+0.4
3822-16ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.5
3923-16BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Anaya Cole+0.3
4023-17BUFFST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.1
4124-17ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
4225-17BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Lara Zigic·
Set 4
11-0BUFFBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+3.0
22-0BUFFBUFFBlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Sydney Bell, Tehya Shaw+3.1
32-1BUFFST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+2.1
42-2ST LOUST LOUAttack errHailey Campagna+3.0
53-2ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+2.3
63-3BUFFST LOU×3KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+2.2
73-4ST LOUST LOU×3AceSaint Louisaced Anaya Cole+3.0
83-5ST LOUST LOU×3KillKayla Jansen+2.9
94-5ST LOUBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
105-5BUFFBUFF×4KillTehya Shaw+3.1
116-5BUFFBUFF×4Attack errEllie Rink+3.3
127-5BUFFBUFF×4KillHailey Campagna+3.4
137-6BUFFST LOUKillTamia Maddox+2.3
148-6ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+2.6
158-7BUFFST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+2.4
168-8ST LOUST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+3.5
179-8ST LOUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.7
1810-8BUFFBUFFAceBuffalo+3.7
1910-9BUFFST LOU×6Serve errBuffalo+2.5
2010-10ST LOUST LOU×6Attack errAva Kanj+3.7
2110-11ST LOUST LOU×6Attack errSydney Bell+3.7
2210-12ST LOUST LOU×6KillJetta Brenningset Maddie Mitchell+3.6
2310-13ST LOUST LOU×6BlockedAva Kanjblk Anna Boatner+3.3
2410-14ST LOUST LOU×6KillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+2.8
2511-14ST LOUBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Anaya Cole+1.7
2611-15BUFFST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning+2.0
2711-16ST LOUST LOUBlockedManoela Forlinblk Anna Boatner, Tea Kalajdzic+2.3
2812-16ST LOUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
2913-16BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Lara Zigic+2.4
3013-17BUFFST LOU×3KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+2.1
3113-18ST LOUST LOU×3AceSaint Louisaced Manoela Forlin+2.2
3213-19ST LOUST LOU×3KillAnna Boatnerset Jetta Brenning+1.5
3314-19ST LOUBUFFServe errSaint Louis+0.7
3414-20BUFFST LOU×6KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+1.0
3514-21ST LOUST LOU×6BlockedManoela Forlinblk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic+0.8
3614-22ST LOUST LOU×6KillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.3
3714-23ST LOUST LOU×6KillTea Kalajdzicset Lara Zigic+0.1
3814-24ST LOUST LOU×6BlockedManoela Forlinblk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen·
3914-25ST LOUST LOU×6Attack errManoela Forlin·

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).