Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMAC

1:3

HomeATLANTIC-10

Saint Louis def. Buffalo 3–1

(25-22, 25-15, 17-25, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
BUFF	22	15	25	14	1
ST LOU	25	25	17	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ST LOU above 50 · BUFF below

Biggest swing: 6.7% to Saint Louis — set 1, BUFF 21-22 ST LOU. Sydney Bell stuffed by Ellie Rink & Kayla Jansen. ST LOU win probability 54% → 61%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUFF 44.3%55.7% ST LOU

Buffalo wins

3-0

10.3%

3-1

16.4%

3-2

17.7%

Saint Louis wins

3-0

15.0%

3-1

21.1%

3-2

19.5%

BUFF break %: 41.4% vs this opp
ST LOU break %: 42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sydney BellAttack error+6.7%
Sydney Bell stuffed by Ellie Rink & Kayla Jansen
Set 1 · BUFF 21-22 ST LOU · ST LOU 54% → 61%
02
Ellie RinkKill+6.3%
Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Jetta Brenning)
Set 1 · BUFF 21-23 ST LOU · ST LOU 61% → 67%
03
Angelina SiepierskiKill+6.0%
Kill by Angelina Siepierski
Set 1 · BUFF 21-20 ST LOU · BUFF 44% → 50%
04
Angelina SiepierskiAttack error+5.3%
Angelina Siepierski stuffed by Kayla Jansen & Tea Kalajdzic
Set 1 · BUFF 22-24 ST LOU · ST LOU 64% → 69%
05
BUFF serverAce+4.2%
Buffalo ace on Anna Alexander
Set 1 · BUFF 17-17 ST LOU · BUFF 40% → 44%
06
BUFF serverService error+4.2%
Buffalo service error
Set 1 · BUFF 21-21 ST LOU · ST LOU 50% → 54%
07
Sydney BellAttack error+4.1%
Attack error by Sydney Bell
Set 4 · BUFF 10-11 ST LOU · ST LOU 77% → 81%
08
Jetta BrenningKill+4.0%
Kill by Jetta Brenning (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 4 · BUFF 10-12 ST LOU · ST LOU 81% → 85%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Buffaloaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Hailey CampagnaOH	4	16	8	35	.229	0	0	1	9	1	0	1	0.5	16.5
3Sydney BellOPP	4	8	4	20	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
9Ava KanjMB	4	5	3	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
2Maddie MitchellS	4	1	3	10	-.200	32	2	1	5	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
1Angelina SiepierskiOH	3	2	5	11	-.273	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	4
20Abisola AdebayoMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
15Eve AdamsOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
10Anaya ColeL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	12	2	0	0	0	0
16Chloe BrownDS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0
14Manoela ForlinOH	3	7	5	29	.069	0	1	0	10	1	0	0	0	8
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
8Tehya ShawMB	2	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Michal BenaimS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	29	124	.105	38	7	5	47	5	1	8	5	76

Saint Louishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellie RinkOH	4	15	5	33	.303	0	0	3	5	0	0	4	2	17
11Anna AlexanderOH	4	13	3	27	.370	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	14
6Tea KalajdzicOH	4	12	2	23	.435	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	13.5
15Anna BoatnerMB	4	4	1	10	.300	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	4	8
21Kayla JansenMB	4	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	3	0	1	6	4	7
14Jetta BrenningS	4	3	1	11	.182	41	1	1	14	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
12Tamia MaddoxOH	4	2	1	6	.167	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	2
23Lara ZigicL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	2	2	2	8	4	0	0	0	2
22Lucy RankinS	4	0	0	1	.000	3	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		52	13	120	.325	47	5	13	42	7	4	16	12	92

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 BUFF · ST LOU 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 BUFFST LOU 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 BUFFST LOU 3

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 BUFFST LOU 3

Set 4

14-25

Longest run 4 BUFFST LOU 6

Bars above the line = Saint Louis leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	46%6/13
2	36%8/22	50%9/18
3	78%7/9	38%5/13
4	44%7/16	30%3/10
5	37%7/19	50%7/14
6	60%6/10	22%2/9
All	48%44/91	42%32/77

Saint Louis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%9/21	36%4/11
2	82%9/11	47%8/17
3	50%7/14	65%13/20
4	54%7/13	50%7/14
5	78%7/9	42%5/12
6	67%6/9	59%10/17
All	58%45/77	52%47/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

168 rallies

Rally log

#	BUFF-ST LOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ST LOU	BUFF	Attack err	Ellie Rink		+1.8
2	1-1	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.8
3	2-1	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
4	3-1	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Ellie Rink	blk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo	+2.6
5	3-2	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+1.8
6	3-3	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski		+2.6
7	4-3	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Anaya Cole	+1.9
8	4-4	BUFF	ST LOU×4	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.9
9	4-5	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski		+2.7
10	4-6	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski	blk Kayla Jansen, Jetta Brenning	+2.7
11	4-7	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski		+2.5
12	5-7	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+1.7
13	6-7	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Anna Alexander		+2.6
14	6-8	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Kayla Jansen	set Jetta Brenning	+2.0
15	7-8	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
16	7-9	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Boatner	set Jetta Brenning	+2.1
17	7-10	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Ava Kanj		+2.7
18	8-10	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+1.8
19	9-10	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Anna Alexander	+2.8
20	9-11	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+2.2
21	10-11	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
22	11-11	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Anna Boatner		+3.2
23	11-12	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+2.4
24	12-12	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+2.4
25	12-13	BUFF	ST LOU	Attack err	Sydney Bell	blk Kayla Jansen, Ellie Rink	+2.5
26	13-13	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.5
27	13-14	BUFF	ST LOU×4	Attack err	Maddie Mitchell		+2.6
28	13-15	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Anna Alexander		+3.5
29	13-16	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+3.2
30	13-17	ST LOU	ST LOU×4	Bad set	Maddie Mitchell		+2.7
31	14-17	ST LOU	BUFF×4	Serve err	ST LOU server		+1.5
32	15-17	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.8
33	16-17	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Anna Alexander	blk Abisola Adebayo, Maddie Mitchell	+3.6
34	17-17	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	BUFF server	aced Anna Alexander	+4.2
35	17-18	BUFF	ST LOU	Serve err	BUFF server		+3.2
36	18-18	ST LOU	BUFF	Attack err	Jetta Brenning	blk Abisola Adebayo, Hailey Campagna	+3.2
37	18-19	BUFF	ST LOU	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+3.5
38	19-19	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.5
39	19-20	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+3.8
40	20-20	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+3.8
41	21-20	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski		+6.0
42	21-21	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Serve err	BUFF server		+4.2
43	21-22	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Sydney Bell	blk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen	+6.7
44	21-23	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+6.3
45	22-23	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.2
46	22-24	BUFF	ST LOU	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski	blk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic	+5.3
47	22-25	ST LOU	ST LOU	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Hailey Campagna	+4.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.4
2	1-1	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.7
3	1-2	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+2.4
4	1-3	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Sydney Bell	blk Anna Boatner, Ellie Rink	+2.3
5	2-3	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+1.6
6	2-4	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.7
7	2-5	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Maddie Mitchell		+2.3
8	2-6	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna	blk Kayla Jansen	+2.1
9	3-6	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Michal Benaim	+1.4
10	3-7	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Kayla Jansen	set Jetta Brenning	+1.5
11	4-7	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Michal Benaim	+1.4
12	4-8	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.6
13	4-9	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+1.9
14	5-9	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Michal Benaim	+1.2
15	5-10	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+1.4
16	5-11	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Jetta Brenning	set Anna Alexander	+1.6
17	5-12	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Anna Boatner	+1.2
18	6-12	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
19	7-12	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin		+1.2
20	7-13	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+1.1
21	7-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+1.2
22	7-15	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
23	8-15	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
24	8-16	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.6
25	9-16	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.4
26	10-16	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
27	10-17	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
28	10-18	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.7
29	10-19	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Anaya Cole	+0.4
30	11-19	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.1
31	12-19	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
32	12-20	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.4
33	13-20	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
34	13-21	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.3
35	14-21	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
36	14-22	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+0.2
37	14-23	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Lucy Rankin	+0.1
38	14-24	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.0
39	15-24	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.0
40	15-25	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+1.5
2	1-1	ST LOU	BUFF×6	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
3	2-1	BUFF	BUFF×6	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
4	3-1	BUFF	BUFF×6	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
5	4-1	BUFF	BUFF×6	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
6	5-1	BUFF	BUFF×6	Attack err	Ellie Rink		+1.4
7	6-1	BUFF	BUFF×6	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
8	6-2	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
9	7-2	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
10	7-3	BUFF	ST LOU	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.8
11	8-3	ST LOU	BUFF×4	Serve err	ST LOU server		+1.0
12	9-3	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
13	10-3	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	BUFF server	aced Lara Zigic	+0.9
14	11-3	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Anna Alexander	blk Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
15	11-4	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+0.4
16	11-5	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.7
17	12-5	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
18	12-6	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Lara Zigic	+0.5
19	12-7	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.9
20	12-8	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Chloe Brown	+1.1
21	13-8	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
22	13-9	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
23	14-9	ST LOU	BUFF	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic		+1.0
24	14-10	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.8
25	15-10	ST LOU	BUFF	Attack err	Ellie Rink		+1.0
26	16-10	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Lara Zigic	+1.1
27	16-11	BUFF	ST LOU	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.6
28	16-12	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Jetta Brenning	set Lara Zigic	+1.1
29	17-12	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+1.0
30	17-13	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+0.7
31	18-13	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
32	18-14	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Lucy Rankin	+0.7
33	19-14	ST LOU	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
34	20-14	BUFF	BUFF×3	Bad set	Ellie Rink		+0.9
35	21-14	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Tamia Maddox		+0.5
36	21-15	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Boatner	set Lucy Rankin	+0.2
37	21-16	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Maddie Mitchell	blk Anna Boatner	+0.4
38	22-16	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
39	23-16	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Anaya Cole	+0.3
40	23-17	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.1
41	24-17	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
42	25-17	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Lara Zigic	+0.0
Set 4
1	1-0	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.2
2	2-0	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Tea Kalajdzic	blk Sydney Bell, Tehya Shaw	+3.2
3	2-1	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox	set Jetta Brenning	+2.2
4	2-2	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+3.3
5	3-2	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+2.4
6	3-3	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Boatner	set Jetta Brenning	+2.4
7	3-4	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Anaya Cole	+3.4
8	3-5	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Kayla Jansen		+3.3
9	4-5	ST LOU	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.3
10	5-5	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Tehya Shaw		+3.5
11	6-5	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Ellie Rink		+3.6
12	7-5	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna		+3.6
13	7-6	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Tamia Maddox		+2.5
14	8-6	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+2.7
15	8-7	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+2.6
16	8-8	ST LOU	ST LOU	Kill	Ellie Rink	set Jetta Brenning	+3.8
17	9-8	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.8
18	10-8	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Team	+4.0
19	10-9	BUFF	ST LOU×6	Serve err	BUFF server		+2.7
20	10-10	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Ava Kanj		+4.0
21	10-11	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+4.1
22	10-12	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Kill	Jetta Brenning	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.0
23	10-13	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Ava Kanj	blk Anna Boatner	+3.7
24	10-14	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+3.3
25	11-14	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+2.0
26	11-15	BUFF	ST LOU	Kill	Anna Alexander	set Jetta Brenning	+2.4
27	11-16	ST LOU	ST LOU	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Anna Boatner, Tea Kalajdzic	+2.7
28	12-16	ST LOU	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
29	13-16	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Lara Zigic	+2.7
30	13-17	BUFF	ST LOU×3	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+2.5
31	13-18	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Ace	ST LOU server	aced Manoela Forlin	+2.7
32	13-19	ST LOU	ST LOU×3	Kill	Anna Boatner	set Jetta Brenning	+1.8
33	14-19	ST LOU	BUFF	Serve err	ST LOU server		+0.8
34	14-20	BUFF	ST LOU×6	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+1.2
35	14-21	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Kayla Jansen, Tea Kalajdzic	+1.0
36	14-22	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Jetta Brenning	+0.4
37	14-23	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Kill	Tea Kalajdzic	set Lara Zigic	+0.2
38	14-24	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen	+0.0
39	14-25	ST LOU	ST LOU×6	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.