FinalWed, Sep 2, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeMAC

Buffalo def. Canisius 3–0

(25-13, 25-21, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CANISI	13	21	20	0
BUFF	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BUFF above 50 · CANISI below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Canisius — set 2, CANISI 12-10 BUFF. Canisius ace on Team. BUFF win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CANISI 2.7%97.3% BUFF

Canisius wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.7%

3-2

1.7%

Buffalo wins

3-0

63.8%

3-1

26.6%

3-2

6.9%

CANISI break %: 35.7% vs this opp
BUFF break %: 50.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CANISI serverAce+0.5%
Canisius ace on Team
Set 2 · CANISI 12-10 BUFF · CANISI 2% → 3%
02
Hailey CampagnaKill+0.4%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 2 · CANISI 13-13 BUFF · BUFF 98% → 98%
03
Emily HelmersKill+0.4%
Kill by Emily Helmers (set by Anna Rich)
Set 2 · CANISI 13-11 BUFF · CANISI 2% → 3%
04
Hannah KosKill+0.4%
Kill by Hannah Kos (set by Anna Rich)
Set 1 · CANISI 4-4 BUFF · CANISI 2% → 3%
05
Hannah KosAttack error+0.4%
Hannah Kos stuffed by Abisola Adebayo & Hailey Campagna
Set 2 · CANISI 13-14 BUFF · BUFF 98% → 99%
06
Abisola AdebayoAttack error+0.4%
Abisola Adebayo stuffed by Emily Helmers
Set 2 · CANISI 4-1 BUFF · CANISI 2% → 2%
07
Hailey CampagnaAttack error+0.4%
Hailey Campagna stuffed by McKenna Corcoran
Set 2 · CANISI 9-8 BUFF · CANISI 1% → 2%
08
CANISI serverService error+0.3%
Canisius service error
Set 2 · CANISI 13-12 BUFF · BUFF 97% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Canisiusaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Julia LenikOH	3	11	6	27	.185	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
16Emma IsroffOH	3	9	4	23	.217	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
9Emily HelmersMB	3	7	3	13	.308	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
20McKenna CorcoranMB	3	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
5Madison CowanOH	3	0	4	5	-.800	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	0	0
19Kenslie WarmbrodtS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	16	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
12Hannah KosOH	3	7	5	13	.154	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
4Anna RichS	3	0	0	2	.000	17	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
11Brenda ReynagaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	10	1	0	0	0	1
18Alli FarmerOH	2	2	4	11	-.182	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		36	27	99	.091	34	2	9	27	2	3	4	5	54

Buffalohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Hailey CampagnaOH	3	12	2	18	.556	1	0	2	4	0	2	3	3.5	15.5
2Maddie MitchellS	3	3	0	7	.429	25	0	2	7	0	0	2	1	4
6Nienke TrosselMB	3	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
20Abisola AdebayoMB	2	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
14Manoela ForlinOH	1	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Sydney BellOPP	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
10Anaya ColeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
15Eve AdamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Angelina SiepierskiOH	2	6	2	10	.400	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	6
11Abbie WillisOH	2	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	5
9Ava KanjMB	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
8Tehya ShawMB	1	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	2
16Chloe BrownDS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
5Michal BenaimS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	8	74	.365	32	2	6	31	2	6	14	13	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CANISI · BUFF 7

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 CANISIBUFF 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 5 CANISIBUFF 7

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 CANISIBUFF 5

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = Canisius leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Canisius

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	46%6/13
2	70%7/10	27%3/11
3	41%7/17	46%6/13
4	40%6/15	0%0/7
5	45%5/11	14%1/7
6	63%5/8	0%0/5
All	52%38/73	29%16/56

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	25%2/8
2	64%7/11	42%5/12
3	64%7/11	30%3/10
4	100%7/7	68%15/22
5	86%6/7	50%6/12
6	50%5/10	44%4/9
All	71%40/56	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	CANISI-BUFF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CANISI	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
2	0-2	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.3
3	0-3	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
4	1-3	BUFF	CANISI	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.2
5	2-3	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.3
6	2-4	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
7	3-4	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
8	4-4	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.4
9	4-5	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
10	4-6	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna		+0.3
11	5-6	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.3
12	5-7	CANISI	BUFF	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.3
13	6-7	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.3
14	6-8	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
15	7-8	BUFF	CANISI	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.3
16	7-9	CANISI	BUFF×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff	blk Hailey Campagna	+0.3
17	7-10	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
18	7-11	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Madison Cowan	blk Sydney Bell, Nienke Trossel	+0.2
19	8-11	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
20	8-12	CANISI	BUFF	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
21	9-12	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
22	9-13	CANISI	BUFF×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff	blk Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin	+0.2
23	9-14	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.2
24	9-15	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+0.1
25	10-15	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
26	11-15	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.2
27	11-16	CANISI	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
28	11-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
29	11-18	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Emily Helmers		+0.1
30	12-18	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.0
31	12-19	CANISI	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.0
32	12-20	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.0
33	12-21	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Madison Cowan		+0.0
34	12-22	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Emily Helmers	blk Nienke Trossel	+0.0
35	13-22	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.0
36	13-23	CANISI	BUFF×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
37	13-24	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.0
38	13-25	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BUFF	CANISI	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.2
2	2-0	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.3
3	2-1	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Anaya Cole	+0.2
4	3-1	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
5	4-1	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo	blk Emily Helmers	+0.4
6	4-2	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Anaya Cole	+0.2
7	4-3	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.3
8	5-3	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.3
9	5-4	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Hailey Campagna	+0.2
10	6-4	BUFF	CANISI	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.3
11	6-5	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
12	6-6	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
13	7-6	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.3
14	7-7	CANISI	BUFF	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.2
15	7-8	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Emma Isroff	blk Hailey Campagna	+0.3
16	8-8	BUFF	CANISI	Attack err	Nienke Trossel		+0.2
17	9-8	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Hailey Campagna	blk McKenna Corcoran	+0.4
18	9-9	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
19	10-9	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
20	10-10	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
21	11-10	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
22	12-10	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.5
23	12-11	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
24	13-11	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.4
25	13-12	CANISI	BUFF×7	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.3
26	13-13	BUFF	BUFF×7	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
27	13-14	BUFF	BUFF×7	Attack err	Hannah Kos	blk Abisola Adebayo, Hailey Campagna	+0.4
28	13-15	BUFF	BUFF×7	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Maddie Mitchell, Abisola Adebayo	+0.3
29	13-16	BUFF	BUFF×7	Kill	Hailey Campagna		+0.3
30	13-17	BUFF	BUFF×7	Attack err	Emily Helmers	blk Hailey Campagna, Abisola Adebayo	+0.2
31	13-18	BUFF	BUFF×7	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Abisola Adebayo, Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
32	14-18	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.1
33	14-19	CANISI	BUFF×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
34	14-20	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	BUFF server	aced Brenda Reynaga	+0.1
35	14-21	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Michal Benaim	+0.0
36	15-21	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.0
37	15-22	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Michal Benaim	+0.0
38	16-22	BUFF	CANISI×5	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
39	17-22	CANISI	CANISI×5	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
40	18-22	CANISI	CANISI×5	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+0.1
41	19-22	CANISI	CANISI×5	Bad set	Michal Benaim		+0.1
42	20-22	CANISI	CANISI×5	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.3
43	20-23	CANISI	BUFF	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.3
44	21-23	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
45	21-24	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
46	21-25	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Abbie Willis	blk Julia Lenik, McKenna Corcoran	+0.1
2	1-1	CANISI	BUFF	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
3	2-1	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
4	2-2	CANISI	BUFF	Attack err	Julia Lenik	blk Abbie Willis	+0.1
5	3-2	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
6	3-3	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
7	3-4	BUFF	BUFF	Bad set	Anna Rich		+0.1
8	4-4	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.1
9	4-5	CANISI	BUFF	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Tehya Shaw	+0.1
10	5-5	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.1
11	5-6	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Chloe Brown	+0.1
12	5-7	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.1
13	6-7	BUFF	CANISI	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.1
14	6-8	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
15	7-8	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Anaya Cole	+0.1
16	7-9	CANISI	BUFF×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
17	7-10	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	BUFF server	aced Team	+0.1
18	7-11	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.1
19	8-11	BUFF	CANISI	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski	blk Emma Isroff	+0.0
20	8-12	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.0
21	9-12	BUFF	CANISI×3	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
22	10-12	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.1
23	11-12	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.1
24	11-13	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
25	11-14	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.1
26	12-14	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.1
27	12-15	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
28	13-15	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.1
29	14-15	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.2
30	14-16	CANISI	BUFF	Attack err	Hannah Kos	blk Hailey Campagna, Ava Kanj	+0.1
31	15-16	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.1
32	15-17	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
33	16-17	BUFF	CANISI	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.1
34	16-18	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
35	17-18	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
36	18-18	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski	blk Emma Isroff, Emily Helmers	+0.3
37	18-19	CANISI	BUFF	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
38	19-19	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
39	19-20	CANISI	BUFF×5	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
40	19-21	BUFF	BUFF×5	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.2
41	19-22	BUFF	BUFF×5	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
42	19-23	BUFF	BUFF×5	Bad set	Kenslie Warmbrodt		+0.1
43	19-24	BUFF	BUFF×5	Attack err	Kenslie Warmbrodt	blk Tehya Shaw	+0.0
44	20-24	BUFF	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
45	20-25	CANISI	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Canisius first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.