UMBC vs Buffalo Volleyball: Buffalo Wins 3-2 (Sep 4, 2026)

Final · 5 setsFri, Sep 4, 2026

2:3

Buffalo beat visiting UMBC 3-2 (26-24, 25-23, 21-25, 23-25, 15-5) on Fri, Sep 4, 2026. Manoela Forlin led Buffalo with 16 kills; UMBC's Hannah Dobbs had a match-high 20.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Sep 4

Set	1	2	3	4	5	Sets
UMBC	24	23	25	25	5	2
BUFF	26	25	21	23	15	3

Win probability

Buffalo above 50 · UMBC below

Biggest swing: 11.5% to UMBC — set 4, UMBC 23-22 BUFF. Kill by Claudia Llamas (set by Isabel Ostvig). BUFF win probability 72% → 60%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UMBC 63.1%36.9% BUFF

UMBC wins

3-0

18.9%

3-1

24.2%

3-2

20.0%

Buffalo wins

3-0

7.7%

3-1

13.3%

3-2

15.8%

UMBC break %: 43.9% vs this opp
BUFF break %: 41.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Claudia LlamasKill+11.5%
Kill by Claudia Llamas (set by Isabel Ostvig)
Set 4 · UMBC 23-22 BUFF · UMBC 28% → 40%
02
BuffaloService error+11.2%
Buffalo service error
Set 4 · UMBC 25-23 BUFF · UMBC 46% → 57%
03
Manoela ForlinAttack error+10.5%
Attack error by Manoela Forlin
Set 4 · UMBC 24-22 BUFF · UMBC 40% → 50%
04
Hailey CampagnaKill+10.5%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Anaya Cole)
Set 1 · UMBC 24-26 BUFF · BUFF 47% → 58%
05
Hailey CampagnaKill+9.8%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 1 · UMBC 23-24 BUFF · BUFF 38% → 47%
06
Maddie MitchellKill+9.1%
Kill by Maddie Mitchell (set by Hailey Campagna)
Set 2 · UMBC 23-25 BUFF · BUFF 73% → 82%
07
Manoela ForlinBlock+9.0%
Alissa Grant stuffed by Manoela Forlin
Set 5 · UMBC 0-2 BUFF · BUFF 52% → 61%
08
Nienke Trossel&Sydney BellBlock+8.7%
Hannah Dobbs stuffed by Nienke Trossel & Sydney Bell
Set 5 · UMBC 0-1 BUFF · BUFF 43% → 52%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UMBCaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Hannah DobbsOH	5	20	11	56	.161	1	0	1	10	2	1	0	1	21
22Alissa GrantMB	5	15	5	26	.385	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	17.5
14Claudia LlamasOH	5	10	4	25	.240	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	3.5	13.5
12Isabel OstvigS	5	4	2	9	.222	43	2	2	14	0	0	4	2	8
17Grace LarriveeMB	5	2	0	5	.400	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	2	4
13Jalynn BrownOH	4	4	8	24	-.167	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	5
16Hannah HowardL/DS	5	0	0	1	.000	4	1	2	17	0	0	0	0	1
23Ella McAllisterL/DS	5	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
7Natalie HarrisOH	4	1	1	6	.000	0	1	0	5	2	0	0	0	2
3Molly PennDS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Dasia JohnsonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		56	31	152	.164	50	4	9	63	7	2	20	12	102

Buffalohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Manoela ForlinOH	5	16	7	47	.191	0	2	1	12	2	3	0	3	21
4Hailey CampagnaOH	5	15	4	28	.393	2	1	3	11	0	0	0	0	16
3Sydney BellOPP	5	13	4	34	.265	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	15.5
20Abisola AdebayoMB	5	4	4	19	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	3	3.5	7.5
2Maddie MitchellS	5	7	1	11	.545	43	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	7
6Nienke TrosselMB	5	3	1	9	.222	0	1	4	3	0	1	4	3	7
16Chloe BrownDS	5	0	0	1	.000	7	1	2	14	1	0	0	0	1
10Anaya ColeL/DS	5	0	0	0	–	6	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
1Angelina SiepierskiOH	1	1	3	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
15Eve AdamsOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		59	24	154	.227	58	7	13	57	4	6	12	12	110

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 UMBC · BUFF 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 3 UMBCBUFF 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 UMBCBUFF 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 3 UMBCBUFF 2

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 5 UMBCBUFF 4

Set 5

5-15

Longest run 2 UMBCBUFF 5

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = UMBC leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UMBC

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%13/23	38%6/16
2	62%13/21	38%8/21
3	67%12/18	29%5/17
4	55%11/20	37%7/19
5	56%9/16	39%7/18
6	67%8/12	27%3/11
All	60%66/110	35%36/102

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	59%13/22	39%7/18
2	62%13/21	46%11/24
3	75%12/16	32%6/19
4	58%11/19	45%9/20
5	64%9/14	33%5/15
6	80%8/10	43%6/14
All	65%66/102	40%44/110

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

212 rallies

#	UMBC-BUFF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BUFF	UMBC	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.7
2	1-1	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Nienke Trossel	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.7
3	2-1	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.7
4	3-1	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.3
5	3-2	UMBC	BUFF	Bad set	Isabel Ostvig		+1.7
6	4-2	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.7
7	5-2	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Grace Larrivee		+2.2
8	5-3	UMBC	BUFF	Serve err	UMBC		+1.5
9	6-3	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.6
10	6-4	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
11	7-4	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.7
12	7-5	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
13	8-5	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.7
14	9-5	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.1
15	9-6	UMBC	BUFF	Serve err	UMBC		+1.4
16	10-6	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.6
17	11-6	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.8
18	11-7	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
19	12-7	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.3
20	12-8	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Anaya Cole	+1.1
21	12-9	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+1.9
22	13-9	BUFF	UMBC	Blocked	Abisola Adebayo	blk Hannah Dobbs	+1.7
23	14-9	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
24	14-10	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Chloe Brown	+1.1
25	14-11	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	Buffalo	aced Dasia Johnson	+1.9
26	15-11	BUFF	UMBC	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Isabel Ostvig, Grace Larrivee	+1.7
27	16-11	UMBC	UMBC	Ace	UMBC	aced Chloe Brown	+1.9
28	16-12	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
29	17-12	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.4
30	17-13	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Nienke Trossel	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
31	17-14	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Jalynn Brown		+2.0
32	18-14	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.8
33	18-15	UMBC	BUFF	Attack err	Claudia Llamas		+1.4
34	19-15	BUFF	UMBC×3	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.9
35	20-15	UMBC	UMBC×3	Blocked	Sydney Bell	blk Alissa Grant, Jalynn Brown	+1.8
36	21-15	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+1.1
37	21-16	UMBC	BUFF×3	Attack err	Jalynn Brown		+0.4
38	21-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Blocked	Jalynn Brown	blk Abisola Adebayo, Nienke Trossel	+1.0
39	21-18	BUFF	BUFF×3	Blocked	Jalynn Brown	blk Abisola Adebayo	+1.7
40	22-18	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.9
41	22-19	UMBC	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Anaya Cole	+1.1
42	22-20	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	Buffalo	aced Dasia Johnson	+2.6
43	22-21	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+4.1
44	23-21	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+4.3
45	23-22	UMBC	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.2
46	23-23	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Chloe Brown	+7.1
47	23-24	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+9.8
48	24-24	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+7.4
49	24-25	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+7.4
50	24-26	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Anaya Cole	+10.5
Set 2
1	0-1	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
2	1-1	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.0
3	1-2	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
4	2-2	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.1
5	3-2	UMBC	UMBC	Bad set	Abisola Adebayo		+2.8
6	3-3	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Anaya Cole	+2.1
7	4-3	BUFF	UMBC×3	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Alissa Grant, Claudia Llamas	+2.1
8	5-3	UMBC	UMBC×3	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Alissa Grant, Isabel Ostvig	+2.8
9	6-3	UMBC	UMBC×3	Bad set	Maddie Mitchell		+2.6
10	6-4	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
11	7-4	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.9
12	7-5	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
13	8-5	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.0
14	8-6	UMBC	BUFF×3	Attack err	Isabel Ostvig		+1.9
15	8-7	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	Buffalo	aced Natalie Harris	+2.9
16	8-8	BUFF	BUFF×3	Bad set	Isabel Ostvig		+3.2
17	9-8	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Ella McAllister	+2.4
18	9-9	UMBC	BUFF×3	Serve err	UMBC		+2.5
19	9-10	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	Buffalo	aced Hannah Dobbs	+3.5
20	9-11	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.6
21	10-11	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.5
22	10-12	UMBC	BUFF	Blocked	Natalie Harris	blk Abisola Adebayo, Sydney Bell	+2.8
23	11-12	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.6
24	11-13	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Chloe Brown	+2.9
25	12-13	BUFF	UMBC	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Alissa Grant, Claudia Llamas	+2.7
26	13-13	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+3.9
27	13-14	UMBC	BUFF	Serve err	UMBC		+3.1
28	13-15	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Alissa Grant		+4.2
29	14-15	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.9
30	14-16	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.3
31	15-16	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+3.0
32	15-17	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.5
33	16-17	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+3.1
34	16-18	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.7
35	16-19	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+4.6
36	17-19	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.7
37	17-20	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.6
38	17-21	BUFF	BUFF	Bad set	Natalie Harris		+3.8
39	18-21	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.8
40	18-22	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Anaya Cole	+2.8
41	18-23	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Alissa Grant		+2.3
42	19-23	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.7
43	19-24	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
44	20-24	BUFF	UMBC×4	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.3
45	21-24	UMBC	UMBC×4	Attack err	Nienke Trossel		+1.0
46	22-24	UMBC	UMBC×4	Ace	UMBC		+2.2
47	23-24	UMBC	UMBC×4	Bad set	Maddie Mitchell		+5.1
48	23-25	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Hailey Campagna	+9.1
Set 3
1	1-0	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.5
2	1-1	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Anaya Cole	+1.5
3	2-1	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Hannah Howard	+1.5
4	2-2	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
5	3-2	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
6	3-3	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
7	4-3	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.6
8	5-3	UMBC	UMBC	Bad set	Maddie Mitchell		+2.1
9	5-4	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Chloe Brown	+1.5
10	6-4	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.6
11	7-4	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.0
12	7-5	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.4
13	8-5	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.5
14	8-6	UMBC	BUFF	Attack err	Claudia Llamas		+1.4
15	9-6	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.5
16	9-7	UMBC	BUFF	Serve err	UMBC		+1.5
17	10-7	BUFF	UMBC×3	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.6
18	11-7	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.9
19	12-7	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.6
20	12-8	UMBC	BUFF	Blocked	Claudia Llamas	blk Manoela Forlin	+1.0
21	13-8	BUFF	UMBC	Blocked	Angelina Siepierski	blk Jalynn Brown, Claudia Llamas	+1.2
22	13-9	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
23	14-9	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.2
24	15-9	UMBC	UMBC	Blocked	Angelina Siepierski	blk Alissa Grant, Isabel Ostvig	+1.2
25	15-10	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
26	15-11	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Chloe Brown	+1.3
27	16-11	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.2
28	17-11	UMBC	UMBC	Blocked	Angelina Siepierski	blk Grace Larrivee, Isabel Ostvig	+1.2
29	17-12	UMBC	BUFF	Serve err	UMBC		+0.6
30	17-13	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Isabel Ostvig		+1.2
31	18-13	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Hannah Howard	+1.2
32	18-14	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
33	19-14	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.2
34	19-15	UMBC	BUFF	Blocked	Claudia Llamas	blk Manoela Forlin	+0.8
35	19-16	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Jalynn Brown		+1.6
36	20-16	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.7
37	21-16	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.5
38	21-17	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
39	22-17	BUFF	UMBC	Bad set	Maddie Mitchell		+1.0
40	22-18	UMBC	BUFF	Serve err	UMBC		+0.5
41	22-19	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Chloe Brown	+1.3
42	23-19	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.6
43	24-19	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Maddie Mitchell		+1.0
44	24-20	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
45	24-21	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	Buffalo	aced Natalie Harris	+0.6
46	25-21	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.0
Set 4
1	0-1	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.8
2	1-1	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.7
3	2-1	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Hannah Howard	+3.6
4	2-2	UMBC	BUFF	Attack err	Claudia Llamas		+2.8
5	2-3	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Chloe Brown	+3.9
6	3-3	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+2.8
7	3-4	UMBC	BUFF	Blocked	Jalynn Brown	blk Abisola Adebayo	+3.0
8	3-5	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.1
9	4-5	BUFF	UMBC	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+2.9
10	4-6	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.1
11	5-6	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.9
12	5-7	UMBC	BUFF×4	Blocked	Hannah Dobbs	blk Nienke Trossel	+3.2
13	5-8	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.3
14	5-9	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.0
15	5-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Nienke Trossel	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.7
16	6-10	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.3
17	7-10	UMBC	UMBC	Ace	UMBC	aced Manoela Forlin	+3.6
18	7-11	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.2
19	8-11	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Hannah Dobbs	+2.7
20	9-11	UMBC	UMBC	Ace	UMBC	aced Manoela Forlin	+4.1
21	9-12	UMBC	BUFF×3	Serve err	UMBC		+3.5
22	9-13	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+4.4
23	9-14	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Isabel Ostvig	+3.8
24	10-14	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+2.2
25	11-14	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+3.7
26	11-15	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.4
27	12-15	BUFF	UMBC	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Claudia Llamas	+2.8
28	12-16	UMBC	BUFF	Serve err	UMBC		+3.5
29	13-16	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.8
30	14-16	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Molly Penn	+4.6
31	14-17	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.2
32	14-18	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Alissa Grant		+4.9
33	15-18	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.7
34	15-19	UMBC	BUFF	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+3.7
35	15-20	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.8
36	16-20	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Hailey Campagna	+1.7
37	16-21	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Hailey Campagna	+2.7
38	17-21	BUFF	UMBC×5	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.5
39	18-21	UMBC	UMBC×5	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+3.2
40	19-21	UMBC	UMBC×5	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+4.8
41	20-21	UMBC	UMBC×5	Blocked	Sydney Bell	blk Grace Larrivee, Claudia Llamas	+6.8
42	21-21	UMBC	UMBC×5	Kill	Grace Larrivee	set Hannah Howard	+8.6
43	21-22	UMBC	BUFF	Blocked	Hannah Dobbs	blk Nienke Trossel, Sydney Bell	+7.6
44	22-22	BUFF	UMBC×3	Serve err	Buffalo		+7.2
45	23-22	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+11.5
46	24-22	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+10.5
47	24-23	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.4
48	25-23	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+11.2
Set 5
1	0-1	BUFF	BUFF×5	Blocked	Hannah Dobbs	blk Nienke Trossel, Sydney Bell	+8.7
2	0-2	BUFF	BUFF×5	Blocked	Alissa Grant	blk Manoela Forlin	+9.0
3	0-3	BUFF	BUFF×5	Attack err	Alissa Grant		+8.7
4	0-4	BUFF	BUFF×5	Blocked	Hannah Dobbs	blk Nienke Trossel, Sydney Bell	+8.0
5	0-5	BUFF	BUFF×5	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+6.9
6	1-5	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.9
7	2-5	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+6.7
8	2-6	UMBC	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+6.3
9	2-7	BUFF	BUFF×4	Blocked	Hannah Dobbs	blk Abisola Adebayo, Sydney Bell	+7.0
10	2-8	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+5.3
11	2-9	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo		+3.6
12	3-9	BUFF	UMBC	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.5
13	3-10	UMBC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.5
14	3-11	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
15	4-11	BUFF	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.6
16	5-11	UMBC	UMBC	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Grace Larrivee	+1.3
17	5-12	UMBC	BUFF×4	Attack err	Jalynn Brown		+1.8
18	5-13	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Jalynn Brown		+1.0
19	5-14	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
20	5-15	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo	aced Hannah Dobbs	·

Score shown after each rally, UMBC first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Buffalo def. UMBC 3–2