Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

1:3

HomeMAC

Buffalo def. Dartmouth 3–1

(25-22, 25-18, 23-25, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
DART	22	18	25	17	1
BUFF	25	25	23	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BUFF above 50 · DART below

Biggest swing: 3.1% to Dartmouth — set 4, DART 12-11 BUFF. Manoela Forlin stuffed by Elle McCreery. BUFF win probability 88% → 85%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DART 18.8%81.2% BUFF

Dartmouth wins

3-0

3.0%

3-1

6.2%

3-2

9.6%

Buffalo wins

3-0

32.8%

3-1

30.5%

3-2

17.9%

DART break %: 39.5% vs this opp
BUFF break %: 46.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Manoela ForlinAttack error+3.1%
Manoela Forlin stuffed by Elle McCreery
Set 4 · DART 12-11 BUFF · DART 12% → 15%
02
Riley ImamuraAttack error+2.9%
Attack error by Riley Imamura
Set 4 · DART 12-13 BUFF · BUFF 87% → 90%
03
Zori BrownKill+2.6%
Kill by Zori Brown (set by Sophia Gagnepain)
Set 3 · DART 25-23 BUFF · DART 8% → 11%
04
Hailey CampagnaKill+2.6%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Sadie Gladhill)
Set 4 · DART 12-14 BUFF · BUFF 90% → 93%
05
Nienke TrosselAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Nienke Trossel
Set 4 · DART 9-9 BUFF · DART 9% → 12%
06
Hailey CampagnaKill+2.3%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Chloe Brown)
Set 4 · DART 12-15 BUFF · BUFF 93% → 95%
07
DART serverService error+2.2%
Dartmouth service error
Set 4 · DART 12-12 BUFF · BUFF 85% → 87%
08
Hailey CampagnaAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Hailey Campagna
Set 4 · DART 4-4 BUFF · DART 9% → 11%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Dartmouthaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Elle McCreeryMB	4	9	6	22	.136	2	1	3	2	0	5	1	5.5	15.5
5Zori BrownOH	4	12	3	30	.300	1	0	2	8	1	3	0	3	15
8Riley ImamuraOH	4	8	7	26	.038	1	0	3	5	3	0	0	0	8
23Raeli SmithMB	4	6	2	19	.211	0	0	2	1	1	2	0	2	8
20Irmak MakasciOH	4	6	3	24	.125	2	1	2	10	0	0	0	0	7
11Sophia GagnepainS	4	0	0	3	.000	15	0	3	9	0	0	0	0	0
17Maddie LaFataOH	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	9	1	0	0	0	0
2Audrey KalorinS	3	3	0	4	.750	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
22Julia YorkS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
10Sloan BalsleyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	21	129	.178	39	2	18	49	8	10	2	11	82

Buffalohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Sydney BellOPP	4	15	3	24	.500	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	17
14Manoela ForlinOH	4	12	6	38	.158	3	0	2	10	0	1	2	2	14
4Hailey CampagnaOH	4	13	5	33	.242	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	14
20Abisola AdebayoMB	4	5	1	9	.444	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	7
2Maddie MitchellS	4	2	0	7	.286	36	3	2	9	0	0	0	0	5
6Nienke TrosselMB	3	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	3.5
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	3	1	2	14	0	0	0	0	1
15Eve AdamsOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
10Anaya ColeL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
16Chloe BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	0
1Angelina SiepierskiOH	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
8Tehya ShawMB	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Ava KanjMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	21	125	.224	45	8	14	58	2	7	4	9	98

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 DART · BUFF 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 5 DARTBUFF 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 DARTBUFF 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 9 DARTBUFF 4

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 3 DARTBUFF 6

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = Dartmouth leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Dartmouth

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%10/22	23%3/13
2	57%8/14	25%3/12
3	57%8/14	38%5/13
4	44%8/18	56%10/18
5	53%8/15	33%4/12
6	57%8/14	47%7/15
All	52%50/97	39%32/83

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%10/14	57%12/21
2	69%9/13	44%7/16
3	42%8/19	20%2/10
4	80%8/10	58%11/19
5	47%8/17	50%8/16
6	80%8/10	47%7/15
All	61%51/83	48%47/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

180 rallies

Rally log

#	DART-BUFF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BUFF	BUFF×5	Kill	Nienke Trossel	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
2	0-2	BUFF	BUFF×5	Kill	Manoela Forlin		+1.4
3	0-3	BUFF	BUFF×5	Ace	BUFF server	aced Team	+1.3
4	0-4	BUFF	BUFF×5	Attack err	Irmak Makasci	blk Manoela Forlin, Nienke Trossel	+1.1
5	0-5	BUFF	BUFF×5	Attack err	Zori Brown		+0.9
6	1-5	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.7
7	1-6	DART	BUFF×4	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
8	1-7	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Abisola Adebayo		+0.8
9	1-8	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Irmak Makasci	blk Manoela Forlin	+0.6
10	1-9	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
11	2-9	BUFF	DART	Kill	Irmak Makasci	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.3
12	3-9	DART	DART	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo	blk Elle McCreery	+0.5
13	3-10	DART	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
14	4-10	BUFF	DART	Kill	Irmak Makasci	set Zori Brown	+0.4
15	5-10	DART	DART	Kill	Elle McCreery		+0.7
16	5-11	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.6
17	6-11	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.5
18	6-12	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.6
19	7-12	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Elle McCreery	+0.5
20	7-13	DART	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Manoela Forlin	+0.6
21	8-13	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.5
22	8-14	DART	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
23	8-15	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
24	8-16	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
25	9-16	BUFF	DART	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Irmak Makasci	+0.2
26	10-16	DART	DART	Kill	Raeli Smith	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.4
27	10-17	DART	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
28	10-18	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
29	11-18	BUFF	DART×3	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.1
30	12-18	DART	DART×3	Kill	Elle McCreery		+0.3
31	13-18	DART	DART×3	Kill	Raeli Smith	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
32	13-19	DART	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
33	14-19	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.4
34	14-20	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Manoela Forlin	+0.5
35	14-21	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Elle McCreery		+0.4
36	15-21	BUFF	DART	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Elle McCreery	+0.1
37	15-22	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
38	15-23	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
39	16-23	BUFF	DART×5	Kill	Zori Brown	set Audrey Kalorin	+0.0
40	17-23	DART	DART×5	Attack err	Hailey Campagna	blk Raeli Smith	+0.1
41	18-23	DART	DART×5	Kill	Audrey Kalorin		+0.2
42	19-23	DART	DART×5	Kill	Audrey Kalorin	set Irmak Makasci	+0.3
43	20-23	DART	DART×5	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.7
44	20-24	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
45	21-24	BUFF	DART	Kill	Raeli Smith	set Audrey Kalorin	+0.3
46	22-24	DART	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Sophia Gagnepain	+1.1
47	22-25	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+1.7
Set 2
1	0-1	DART	BUFF	Attack err	Raeli Smith		+0.9
2	1-1	BUFF	DART	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Raeli Smith	+0.9
3	1-2	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.9
4	2-2	BUFF	DART	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Sophia Gagnepain	+1.0
5	2-3	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.9
6	2-4	BUFF	BUFF	Bad set	Maddie LaFata		+1.1
7	3-4	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.9
8	3-5	DART	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+0.9
9	4-5	BUFF	DART×4	Kill	Audrey Kalorin	set Riley Imamura	+0.9
10	5-5	DART	DART×4	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+1.4
11	6-5	DART	DART×4	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Zori Brown	+1.5
12	7-5	DART	DART×4	Attack err	Ava Kanj		+1.6
13	7-6	DART	BUFF×5	Serve err	DART server		+1.1
14	7-7	BUFF	BUFF×5	Ace	BUFF server	aced Riley Imamura	+1.5
15	7-8	BUFF	BUFF×5	Ace	BUFF server	aced Team	+1.4
16	7-9	BUFF	BUFF×5	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
17	7-10	BUFF	BUFF×5	Ace	BUFF server	aced Maddie LaFata	+1.2
18	8-10	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.8
19	8-11	DART	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
20	8-12	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	BUFF server	aced Riley Imamura	+1.0
21	8-13	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	BUFF server	aced Riley Imamura	+0.8
22	9-13	BUFF	DART	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski		+0.5
23	9-14	DART	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
24	9-15	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
25	10-15	BUFF	DART	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.3
26	11-15	DART	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.7
27	11-16	DART	BUFF×3	Attack err	Riley Imamura	blk Sydney Bell	+0.6
28	11-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin		+0.6
29	11-18	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
30	12-18	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.2
31	13-18	DART	DART	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Elle McCreery	+0.4
32	13-19	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.4
33	14-19	BUFF	DART	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.3
34	14-20	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Manoela Forlin	+0.4
35	14-21	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Zori Brown	+0.3
36	15-21	BUFF	DART	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Maddie LaFata	+0.1
37	15-22	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.2
38	16-22	BUFF	DART	Kill	Elle McCreery	set Julia York	+0.1
39	17-22	DART	DART	Bad set	Sydney Bell		+0.2
40	17-23	DART	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
41	18-23	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.1
42	18-24	DART	BUFF	Attack err	Zori Brown		+0.2
43	18-25	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Raeli Smith	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	BUFF	DART	Kill	Raeli Smith	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.5
2	1-1	DART	BUFF	Attack err	Riley Imamura	blk Sydney Bell	+0.5
3	2-1	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.5
4	2-2	DART	BUFF	Attack err	Riley Imamura	blk Manoela Forlin, Tehya Shaw	+0.5
5	3-2	BUFF	DART	Kill	Irmak Makasci	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.5
6	3-3	DART	BUFF×3	Serve err	DART server		+0.5
7	3-4	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Elle McCreery		+0.6
8	3-5	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
9	4-5	BUFF	DART	Kill	Elle McCreery	set Julia York	+0.4
10	5-5	DART	DART	Attack err	Tehya Shaw	blk Zori Brown	+0.7
11	5-6	DART	BUFF	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
12	5-7	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
13	6-7	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Julia York	+0.5
14	6-8	DART	BUFF×4	Serve err	DART server		+0.5
15	6-9	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Sadie Gladhill	+0.6
16	6-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.5
17	6-11	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
18	7-11	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Julia York	+0.3
19	7-12	DART	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
20	7-13	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Sadie Gladhill	+0.3
21	8-13	BUFF	DART	Attack err	Sydney Bell	blk Zori Brown	+0.2
22	9-13	DART	DART	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+0.3
23	9-14	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.3
24	10-14	BUFF	DART	Kill	Raeli Smith	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.3
25	10-15	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.3
26	11-15	BUFF	DART×9	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.3
27	12-15	DART	DART×9	Kill	Irmak Makasci	set Julia York	+0.5
28	13-15	DART	DART×9	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Elle McCreery	+0.6
29	14-15	DART	DART×9	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski		+0.8
30	15-15	DART	DART×9	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Julia York	+1.0
31	16-15	DART	DART×9	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+1.1
32	17-15	DART	DART×9	Kill	Elle McCreery	set Julia York	+1.2
33	18-15	DART	DART×9	Kill	Elle McCreery	set Julia York	+1.2
34	19-15	DART	DART×9	Ace	DART server	aced Anaya Cole	+1.1
35	19-16	DART	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
36	19-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Elle McCreery	blk Abisola Adebayo	+1.0
37	19-18	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Riley Imamura		+1.2
38	20-18	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Julia York	+1.2
39	20-19	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Abisola Adebayo	+0.9
40	20-20	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Elle McCreery		+1.5
41	21-20	BUFF	DART×3	Kill	Elle McCreery	set Julia York	+1.3
42	22-20	DART	DART×3	Kill	Zori Brown	set Julia York	+1.8
43	23-20	DART	DART×3	Ace	DART server	aced Team	+1.6
44	23-21	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+0.7
45	24-21	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Julia York	+1.3
46	24-22	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
47	24-23	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Zori Brown		+1.4
48	25-23	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Sophia Gagnepain	+2.6
Set 4
1	0-1	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+1.4
2	0-2	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell		+1.8
3	1-2	BUFF	DART	Kill	Irmak Makasci	set Sophia Gagnepain	+1.4
4	1-3	DART	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
5	2-3	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+1.4
6	2-4	DART	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.4
7	3-4	BUFF	DART	Kill	Elle McCreery	set Sophia Gagnepain	+1.4
8	4-4	DART	DART	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+2.2
9	4-5	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
10	4-6	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Irmak Makasci		+2.0
11	5-6	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+1.5
12	5-7	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+1.5
13	6-7	BUFF	DART	Attack err	Nienke Trossel	blk Elle McCreery	+1.6
14	6-8	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+1.5
15	6-9	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Raeli Smith		+1.9
16	7-9	BUFF	DART×3	Kill	Irmak Makasci	set Julia York	+1.4
17	8-9	DART	DART×3	Kill	Raeli Smith		+2.1
18	9-9	DART	DART×3	Attack err	Nienke Trossel		+2.5
19	9-10	DART	BUFF	Serve err	DART server		+1.9
20	10-10	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Sophia Gagnepain	+2.0
21	10-11	DART	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
22	11-11	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+2.1
23	12-11	DART	DART	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Elle McCreery	+3.1
24	12-12	DART	BUFF×6	Serve err	DART server		+2.2
25	12-13	BUFF	BUFF×6	Attack err	Riley Imamura		+2.9
26	12-14	BUFF	BUFF×6	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Sadie Gladhill	+2.6
27	12-15	BUFF	BUFF×6	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Chloe Brown	+2.3
28	12-16	BUFF	BUFF×6	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
29	12-17	BUFF	BUFF×6	Attack err	Elle McCreery		+1.3
30	13-17	BUFF	DART	Kill	Riley Imamura	set Sophia Gagnepain	+0.8
31	13-18	DART	BUFF×4	Attack err	Riley Imamura	blk Abisola Adebayo	+1.0
32	13-19	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Elle McCreery	blk Nienke Trossel	+0.9
33	13-20	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Riley Imamura	blk Nienke Trossel	+0.5
34	13-21	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
35	14-21	BUFF	DART	Kill	Elle McCreery	set Julia York	+0.1
36	14-22	DART	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
37	15-22	BUFF	DART	Kill	Zori Brown	set Julia York	+0.1
38	15-23	DART	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
39	16-23	BUFF	DART	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.0
40	16-24	DART	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
41	17-24	BUFF	DART	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+0.0
42	17-25	DART	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Dartmouth first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.