FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeASUN

Queens (NC) def. Buffalo 3–0

(25-23, 25-23, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUFF	23	23	18	0
QUENNC	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

QUENNC above 50 · BUFF below

Biggest swing: 8.2% to Queens (NC) — set 2, BUFF 23-25 QUENNC. Kill by Elizabeth Layson (set by Marlee Cook). QUENNC win probability 77% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUFF 54.6%45.4% QUENNC

Buffalo wins

3-0

14.5%

3-1

20.7%

3-2

19.4%

Queens (NC) wins

3-0

10.7%

3-1

16.8%

3-2

17.9%

BUFF break %: 43.6% vs this opp
QUENNC break %: 42.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Elizabeth LaysonKill+8.2%
Kill by Elizabeth Layson (set by Marlee Cook)
Set 2 · BUFF 23-25 QUENNC · QUENNC 77% → 86%
02
Elizabeth LaysonKill+7.8%
Kill by Elizabeth Layson (set by Marlee Cook)
Set 1 · BUFF 23-25 QUENNC · QUENNC 57% → 65%
03
Kyla CoffeyKill+7.7%
Kill by Kyla Coffey (set by Marlee Cook)
Set 1 · BUFF 22-24 QUENNC · QUENNC 53% → 60%
04
Sydney BellAttack error+7.0%
Attack error by Sydney Bell
Set 2 · BUFF 21-22 QUENNC · QUENNC 65% → 72%
05
Sydney BellAttack error+6.9%
Attack error by Sydney Bell
Set 2 · BUFF 21-23 QUENNC · QUENNC 72% → 79%
06
Sydney BellAttack error+6.1%
Attack error by Sydney Bell
Set 2 · BUFF 22-24 QUENNC · QUENNC 75% → 81%
07
Naomi ColeKill+6.0%
Kill by Naomi Cole (set by Marlee Cook)
Set 1 · BUFF 22-23 QUENNC · QUENNC 47% → 53%
08
Elizabeth LaysonKill+5.9%
Kill by Elizabeth Layson (set by Destiny Wiggins)
Set 2 · BUFF 21-21 QUENNC · QUENNC 59% → 65%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Buffaloaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Manoela ForlinOH	3	6	0	22	.273	1	2	0	8	1	2	1	9
4Hailey CampagnaOH	3	9	5	19	.211	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	9
3Sydney BellOPP	3	7	5	19	.105	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	8
20Abisola AdebayoMB	3	5	4	14	.071	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
2Maddie MitchellS	3	2	0	3	.667	29	1	2	11	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Ava KanjMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Eve AdamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
10Anaya ColeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	10	1	0	0	0
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	0
1Angelina SiepierskiOH	2	2	1	3	.333	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	2
8Tehya ShawMB	1	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Abbie WillisOH	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team totals		35	17	89	.202	34	4	8	40	8	10	5	64

Queens (NC)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Elizabeth LaysonOH	3	13	3	28	.357	3	2	3	4	2	0	0	15
8Emma NorrisOH	3	10	2	25	.320	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	11
4Callie DeSchryverOH	3	7	2	20	.250	0	1	2	10	2	1	0.5	8.5
15Naomi ColeOH	3	5	3	11	.182	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
6Tyler PelusoS	3	3	0	4	.750	11	1	2	2	0	0	0	4
16Kyla CoffeyOH	3	2	1	3	.333	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
22Marlee CookS	3	2	0	2	1.000	17	1	1	2	0	0	0	3
3Megan KellyS	3	0	0	0	–	1	3	1	1	0	0	0	3
14Layni TobiasMB	3	0	3	10	-.300	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Tilley CollinsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
17Destiny WigginsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	14	103	.272	38	8	11	34	4	6	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 BUFF · QUENNC 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 BUFFQUENNC 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 9 BUFFQUENNC 6

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 BUFFQUENNC 3

Bars above the line = Queens (NC) leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	13%1/8
2	73%8/11	27%3/11
3	44%7/16	43%6/14
4	78%7/9	36%4/11
5	50%5/10	22%2/9
6	45%5/11	62%8/13
All	55%40/73	36%24/66

Queens (NC)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	60%9/15
2	67%8/12	27%3/11
3	50%8/16	53%9/17
4	78%7/9	30%3/10
5	40%6/15	40%4/10
6	100%5/5	50%5/10
All	64%42/66	45%33/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	BUFF-QUENNC	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Kyla Coffey	set Tyler Peluso	+1.9
2	1-1	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+1.8
3	2-1	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Eve Adams	+2.5
4	2-2	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+1.9
5	2-3	QUENNC	QUENNC	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Team	+2.6
6	3-3	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
7	3-4	BUFF	QUENNC	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+2.0
8	4-4	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.0
9	5-4	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.7
10	5-5	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+2.0
11	6-5	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
12	7-5	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Elizabeth Layson		+2.7
13	7-6	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+2.0
14	7-7	QUENNC	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Destiny Wiggins	+2.8
15	8-7	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+2.2
16	8-8	BUFF	QUENNC×3	Serve err	BUFF server		+2.2
17	8-9	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+3.0
18	8-10	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Manoela Forlin	+3.0
19	9-10	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+2.2
20	9-11	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Callie DeSchryver	set Tyler Peluso	+2.4
21	10-11	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+2.2
22	11-11	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Manoela Forlin	+3.2
23	11-12	BUFF	QUENNC	Serve err	BUFF server		+2.5
24	12-12	QUENNC	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.5
25	13-12	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Callie DeSchryver		+3.4
26	14-12	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Emma Norris	blk Maddie Mitchell, Abisola Adebayo	+3.3
27	14-13	BUFF	QUENNC	Serve err	BUFF server		+2.4
28	14-14	QUENNC	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+3.5
29	15-14	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell		+2.8
30	15-15	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Naomi Cole	set Marlee Cook	+2.8
31	16-15	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.0
32	16-16	BUFF	QUENNC	Serve err	BUFF server		+3.0
33	17-16	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Anaya Cole	+3.1
34	17-17	BUFF	QUENNC	Serve err	BUFF server		+3.1
35	18-17	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.3
36	18-18	BUFF	QUENNC×3	Serve err	BUFF server		+3.3
37	18-19	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+4.8
38	18-20	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Kill	Emma Norris		+4.8
39	19-20	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Anaya Cole	+3.2
40	20-20	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+5.2
41	20-21	BUFF	QUENNC	Attack err	Sydney Bell	blk Callie DeSchryver, Emma Norris	+4.4
42	21-21	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.3
43	21-22	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Naomi Cole	set Marlee Cook	+5.0
44	22-22	QUENNC	BUFF	Attack err	Naomi Cole	blk Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin	+4.9
45	22-23	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Naomi Cole	set Marlee Cook	+6.0
46	22-24	QUENNC	QUENNC	Kill	Kyla Coffey	set Marlee Cook	+7.7
47	23-24	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.3
48	23-25	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+7.8
Set 2
1	0-1	QUENNC	QUENNC×4	Kill	Callie DeSchryver	set Anaya Cole	+2.6
2	0-2	QUENNC	QUENNC×4	Kill	Callie DeSchryver	set Megan Kelly	+2.6
3	0-3	QUENNC	QUENNC×4	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Anaya Cole	+2.6
4	0-4	QUENNC	QUENNC×4	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Team	+2.4
5	1-4	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.7
6	1-5	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+1.9
7	2-5	QUENNC	BUFF	Attack err	Naomi Cole		+1.7
8	2-6	BUFF	QUENNC	Serve err	BUFF server		+1.9
9	2-7	QUENNC	QUENNC	Attack err	Ava Kanj		+2.3
10	3-7	QUENNC	BUFF×4	Serve err	QUENNC server		+1.5
11	4-7	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Naomi Cole	blk Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin	+2.3
12	5-7	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Elizabeth Layson	blk Abisola Adebayo, Sydney Bell	+2.6
13	6-7	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Layni Tobias		+2.8
14	6-8	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Marlee Cook	set Tilley Collins	+2.3
15	7-8	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.2
16	8-8	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Kyla Coffey		+3.0
17	8-9	BUFF	QUENNC×3	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+2.4
18	8-10	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Hailey Campagna	+3.2
19	8-11	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+3.1
20	9-11	QUENNC	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
21	10-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.1
22	11-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.3
23	12-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Emma Norris		+3.4
24	13-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	BUFF server	aced Callie DeSchryver	+3.4
25	14-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Hailey Campagna	+3.2
26	15-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.8
27	16-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.3
28	17-11	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	BUFF server	aced Callie DeSchryver	+1.7
29	17-12	BUFF	QUENNC×3	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+0.9
30	17-13	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.7
31	17-14	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Sadie Gladhill	+2.3
32	18-14	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+2.2
33	18-15	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+1.7
34	18-16	QUENNC	QUENNC	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+3.0
35	19-16	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+2.9
36	19-17	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Tyler Peluso	set Elizabeth Layson	+2.3
37	20-17	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.0
38	21-17	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Layni Tobias		+3.1
39	21-18	BUFF	QUENNC×6	Kill	Callie DeSchryver	set Marlee Cook	+1.5
40	21-19	QUENNC	QUENNC×6	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+3.1
41	21-20	QUENNC	QUENNC×6	Kill	Naomi Cole	set Marlee Cook	+4.5
42	21-21	QUENNC	QUENNC×6	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Destiny Wiggins	+5.9
43	21-22	QUENNC	QUENNC×6	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+7.0
44	21-23	QUENNC	QUENNC×6	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+6.9
45	22-23	QUENNC	BUFF	Attack err	Elizabeth Layson		+3.7
46	22-24	BUFF	QUENNC	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+6.1
47	23-24	QUENNC	BUFF	Attack err	Callie DeSchryver		+3.5
48	23-25	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+8.2
Set 3
1	0-1	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Callie DeSchryver	set Elizabeth Layson	+1.4
2	1-1	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.4
3	1-2	BUFF	QUENNC×3	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+1.4
4	1-3	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Attack err	Tehya Shaw		+1.9
5	1-4	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+1.8
6	2-4	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+1.3
7	2-5	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Naomi Cole	set Marlee Cook	+1.4
8	2-6	QUENNC	QUENNC	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.8
9	3-6	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.2
10	3-7	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+1.4
11	3-8	QUENNC	QUENNC	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.6
12	4-8	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
13	4-9	BUFF	QUENNC×3	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Marlee Cook	+1.3
14	4-10	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+1.4
15	4-11	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+1.2
16	5-11	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+0.7
17	5-12	BUFF	QUENNC×3	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Tyler Peluso	+0.9
18	5-13	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna	blk Kyla Coffey, Emma Norris	+0.9
19	5-14	QUENNC	QUENNC×3	Kill	Callie DeSchryver	set Tyler Peluso	+0.6
20	6-14	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
21	6-15	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+0.5
22	6-16	QUENNC	QUENNC	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Angelina Siepierski	+0.4
23	7-16	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
24	7-17	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Tyler Peluso	set Tilley Collins	+0.3
25	8-17	QUENNC	BUFF×3	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
26	9-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	BUFF server	aced Elizabeth Layson	+0.3
27	10-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
28	10-18	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Callie DeSchryver	set Marlee Cook	+0.5
29	10-19	QUENNC	QUENNC	Ace	QUENNC server	aced Angelina Siepierski	+0.4
30	11-19	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+0.2
31	11-20	BUFF	QUENNC	Attack err	Angelina Siepierski	blk Layni Tobias, Naomi Cole	+0.3
32	12-20	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
33	12-21	BUFF	QUENNC	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.2
34	13-21	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
35	13-22	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Elizabeth Layson	set Tilley Collins	+0.1
36	14-22	QUENNC	BUFF	Serve err	QUENNC server		+0.1
37	15-22	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Elizabeth Layson	+0.1
38	15-23	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Emma Norris	set Tyler Peluso	+0.2
39	16-23	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Angelina Siepierski	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
40	16-24	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Tyler Peluso	set Elizabeth Layson	+0.1
41	17-24	QUENNC	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.0
42	18-24	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Layni Tobias	blk Abisola Adebayo, Sydney Bell	+0.1
43	18-25	BUFF	QUENNC	Kill	Marlee Cook	set Tilley Collins	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.