Buffalo vs Chattanooga Volleyball: Buffalo Wins 3-0 (Sep 12)

FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026 · Neutral site

3:0

Buffalo beat Chattanooga 3-0 (25-17, 25-22, 25-21) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at a neutral site. Buffalo's Manoela Forlin led with 15 kills, and Maddie Mitchell added 10 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Sep 12

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUFF	25	25	25	3
CHAT	17	22	21	0

Win probability

Chattanooga above 50 · Buffalo below

Biggest swing: 3.1% to Buffalo — set 2, BUFF 24-22 CHAT. Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Mallory Merz). CHAT win probability 9% → 6%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 77.3%22.7% CHAT

Buffalo wins

3-0

29.0%

3-1

29.4%

3-2

18.9%

Chattanooga wins

3-0

3.9%

3-1

7.7%

3-2

11.1%

BUFF break %: 46.5% vs this opp
CHAT break %: 40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Hailey CampagnaKill+3.1%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Mallory Merz)
Set 2 · BUFF 24-22 CHAT · BUFF 91% → 94%
02
Addison WalkerKill+2.6%
Kill by Addison Walker
Set 2 · BUFF 23-22 CHAT · CHAT 7% → 9%
03
BuffaloAce+2.2%
Buffalo ace on Destiny Wiggins
Set 2 · BUFF 14-14 CHAT · BUFF 84% → 86%
04
Gracie RoseAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Gracie Rose
Set 2 · BUFF 15-14 CHAT · BUFF 86% → 88%
05
Addison WalkerAttack error+2.1%
Attack error by Addison Walker
Set 2 · BUFF 25-22 CHAT · BUFF 94% → 96%
06
Manoela ForlinKill+2.1%
Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 2 · BUFF 13-14 CHAT · BUFF 82% → 84%
07
Manoela ForlinKill+2.0%
Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 2 · BUFF 16-14 CHAT · BUFF 88% → 90%
08
Sydney BellAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Sydney Bell
Set 2 · BUFF 11-13 CHAT · BUFF 80% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Buffaloaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Manoela ForlinOH	3	15	7	40	.200	0	1	2	5	0	1	0.5	16.5
11Abbie WillisOH	3	9	4	22	.227	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	9
3Sydney BellOPP	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
20Abisola AdebayoMB	3	5	3	13	.154	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
2Maddie MitchellS	3	2	0	5	.400	32	0	0	10	0	0	0	2
8Tehya ShawMB	3	1	3	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
15Eve AdamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	5	1	5	0	0	0	5
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	4	0	0	0	2
10Anaya ColeL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
9Ava KanjMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Hailey CampagnaOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		42	18	106	.226	36	8	7	39	2	6	3	75

Chattanoogahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Kynli KirkendollMB	3	7	0	20	.350	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	2.5	9.5
5Jordin GlassMB	3	6	2	18	.222	0	1	1	6	2	0	3	1.5	8.5
0Bailey BurgessMB	3	3	1	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
23Gracie RoseOH	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	5
16Ashley ReynoldsS	3	1	1	3	.000	12	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
6Delaney WingenbachOH	1	1	4	9	-.333	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
9Caiti BarthelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	0
1Addison WalkerOH	2	7	3	17	.235	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	7
4Mallory MerzS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	11	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Sophia GarridoOH	1	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
15Destiny WigginsOH	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
21Finley HilliardL/DS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Ryan OdenL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	16	92	.174	27	2	5	32	8	2	12	8	60

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 9 BUFF · CHAT 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 9 BUFFCHAT 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 9 BUFFCHAT 4

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 BUFFCHAT 3

Bars above the line = Chattanooga leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	44%4/9
2	78%7/9	73%19/26
3	39%7/18	59%10/17
4	67%6/9	14%1/7
5	50%6/12	0%0/6
6	83%5/6	38%3/8
All	61%38/62	51%37/73

Chattanooga

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	28%7/25	13%1/8
2	58%7/12	30%3/10
3	40%6/15	42%5/12
4	100%6/6	60%9/15
5	63%5/8	40%4/10
6	71%5/7	29%2/7
All	49%36/73	39%24/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

135 rallies

#	BUFF-CHAT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
2	2-0	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
3	2-1	BUFF	CHAT	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.3
4	3-1	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
5	3-2	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass		+1.3
6	4-2	CHAT	BUFF	Attack err	Gracie Rose		+1.3
7	5-2	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	Buffalo		+1.6
8	5-3	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.2
9	6-3	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.2
10	6-4	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.2
11	6-5	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Delaney Wingenbach		+1.8
12	7-5	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.4
13	7-6	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.5
14	8-6	CHAT	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
15	9-6	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach		+1.7
16	10-6	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach		+1.5
17	10-7	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.1
18	11-7	CHAT	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.2
19	12-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin		+1.2
20	13-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Bailey Burgess		+1.0
21	14-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
22	15-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	Buffalo		+0.5
23	16-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Ashley Reynolds		+0.3
24	17-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	Buffalo	aced Caiti Barthel	+0.2
25	18-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Anaya Cole		+0.1
26	19-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach		·
27	19-8	BUFF	CHAT	Blocked	Tehya Shaw	blk Jordin Glass, Bailey Burgess	·
28	19-9	CHAT	CHAT	Ace	Chattanooga		·
29	20-9	CHAT	BUFF	Serve err	Chattanooga		·
30	20-10	BUFF	CHAT×3	Kill	Bailey Burgess	set Ashley Reynolds	·
31	20-11	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		·
32	20-12	CHAT	CHAT×3	Ace	Chattanooga	aced Abbie Willis	+0.1
33	21-12	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
34	21-13	BUFF	CHAT×3	Attack err	Abbie Willis		·
35	21-14	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+0.1
36	21-15	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Kynli Kirkendoll	+0.2
37	22-15	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+0.3
38	22-16	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
39	22-17	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.3
40	23-17	CHAT	BUFF×3	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
41	24-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Jordin Glass		+0.2
42	25-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Blocked	Delaney Wingenbach	blk Tehya Shaw, Sydney Bell	·
Set 2
1	1-0	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Anaya Cole	+1.3
2	1-1	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker	set Mallory Merz	+1.1
3	2-1	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
4	2-2	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Mallory Merz	+1.1
5	3-2	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
6	3-3	BUFF	CHAT×4	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+1.1
7	3-4	CHAT	CHAT×4	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Caiti Barthel	+1.6
8	3-5	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.7
9	3-6	CHAT	CHAT×4	Blocked	Abisola Adebayo	blk Bailey Burgess, Gracie Rose	+1.8
10	4-6	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.2
11	4-7	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.4
12	5-7	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
13	5-8	BUFF	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.5
14	5-9	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Tehya Shaw		+1.9
15	5-10	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Bailey Burgess	set Addison Walker	+1.8
16	6-10	CHAT	BUFF	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+1.1
17	6-11	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.4
18	7-11	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
19	7-12	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker	set Caiti Barthel	+1.4
20	7-13	CHAT	CHAT	Blocked	Tehya Shaw	blk Kynli Kirkendoll	+1.6
21	8-13	CHAT	BUFF×4	Serve err	Chattanooga		+0.9
22	9-13	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo	aced Gracie Rose	+1.5
23	10-13	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo	aced Jordin Glass	+1.7
24	11-13	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+1.9
25	11-14	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Mallory Merz	+1.8
26	12-14	CHAT	BUFF×9	Blocked	Destiny Wiggins	blk Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin	+1.5
27	13-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
28	14-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	Buffalo	aced Destiny Wiggins	+2.2
29	15-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Gracie Rose		+2.2
30	16-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.0
31	17-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Mallory Merz	+1.7
32	18-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Mallory Merz		+1.4
33	19-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Gracie Rose		+1.0
34	20-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Sadie Gladhill	+0.6
35	20-15	BUFF	CHAT×4	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.3
36	20-16	CHAT	CHAT×4	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Jordin Glass, Bailey Burgess	+0.6
37	20-17	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+1.0
38	20-18	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.6
39	21-18	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
40	21-19	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.2
41	22-19	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.7
42	22-20	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.2
43	23-20	CHAT	BUFF	Attack err	Addison Walker		+1.7
44	23-21	BUFF	CHAT	Blocked	Abbie Willis	blk Kynli Kirkendoll, Bailey Burgess	+1.1
45	23-22	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker		+2.6
46	24-22	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Mallory Merz	+3.1
47	25-22	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Addison Walker		+2.1
Set 3
1	1-0	CHAT	BUFF×4	Serve err	Chattanooga		+0.6
2	2-0	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
3	3-0	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo	aced Caiti Barthel	+0.6
4	4-0	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Eve Adams	+0.5
5	4-1	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.4
6	5-1	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
7	5-2	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Mallory Merz	+0.4
8	5-3	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.6
9	6-3	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
10	6-4	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Sophia Garrido	set Mallory Merz	+0.5
11	6-5	CHAT	CHAT	Blocked	Abisola Adebayo	blk Gracie Rose, Bailey Burgess	+0.7
12	7-5	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
13	7-6	BUFF	CHAT×3	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+0.6
14	7-7	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.9
15	7-8	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Caiti Barthel	+1.0
16	8-8	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell		+0.7
17	9-8	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Anaya Cole	+0.9
18	9-9	BUFF	CHAT	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+0.7
19	10-9	CHAT	BUFF	Serve err	Chattanooga		+0.7
20	10-10	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.8
21	11-10	CHAT	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
22	12-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Jordin Glass		+0.9
23	13-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Blocked	Addison Walker	blk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo	+0.8
24	14-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
25	14-11	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker	set Mallory Merz	+0.5
26	15-11	CHAT	BUFF×3	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
27	16-11	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	Buffalo	aced Jordin Glass	+0.5
28	17-11	BUFF	BUFF×3	Bad set	Mallory Merz		+0.4
29	17-12	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.2
30	18-12	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
31	18-13	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Sophia Garrido	set Mallory Merz	+0.2
32	19-13	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
33	19-14	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.2
34	20-14	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
35	20-15	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Bailey Burgess	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.2
36	21-15	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
37	21-16	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.1
38	22-16	CHAT	BUFF	Serve err	Chattanooga		+0.2
39	23-16	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
40	23-17	BUFF	CHAT	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Kynli Kirkendoll	·
41	23-18	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Sophia Garrido	set Mallory Merz	+0.1
42	24-18	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
43	24-19	BUFF	CHAT×3	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Mallory Merz	·
44	24-20	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.1
45	24-21	CHAT	CHAT×3	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Sophia Garrido, Jordin Glass	+0.2
46	25-21	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Buffalo def. Chattanooga 3–0