FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeSOCON

Buffalo def. Chattanooga 3–0

(25-17, 25-22, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUFF	25	25	25	3
CHAT	17	22	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CHAT above 50 · BUFF below

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Buffalo — set 2, BUFF 24-22 CHAT. Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Mallory Merz). CHAT win probability 15% → 10%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUFF 65.3%34.7% CHAT

Buffalo wins

3-0

20.2%

3-1

25.1%

3-2

20.1%

Chattanooga wins

3-0

7.0%

3-1

12.4%

3-2

15.2%

BUFF break %: 44.4% vs this opp
CHAT break %: 41.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Hailey CampagnaKill+4.2%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Mallory Merz)
Set 2 · BUFF 24-22 CHAT · BUFF 85% → 90%
02
Addison WalkerKill+3.5%
Kill by Addison Walker
Set 2 · BUFF 23-22 CHAT · CHAT 11% → 15%
03
Addison WalkerAttack error+3.1%
Attack error by Addison Walker
Set 2 · BUFF 25-22 CHAT · BUFF 90% → 93%
04
Gracie RoseAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Gracie Rose
Set 2 · BUFF 15-14 CHAT · BUFF 79% → 82%
05
BUFF serverAce+2.9%
Buffalo ace on Destiny Wiggins
Set 2 · BUFF 14-14 CHAT · BUFF 76% → 79%
06
Manoela ForlinKill+2.9%
Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 2 · BUFF 16-14 CHAT · BUFF 82% → 85%
07
Manoela ForlinKill+2.7%
Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 2 · BUFF 13-14 CHAT · BUFF 73% → 76%
08
Manoela ForlinKill+2.5%
Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Mallory Merz)
Set 2 · BUFF 17-14 CHAT · BUFF 85% → 87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Buffaloaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Manoela ForlinOH	3	15	7	40	.200	0	1	2	5	0	1	0.5	16.5
11Abbie WillisOH	3	9	4	22	.227	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	9
3Sydney BellOPP	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
20Abisola AdebayoMB	3	5	3	13	.154	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
2Maddie MitchellS	3	2	0	5	.400	32	0	0	10	0	0	0	2
8Tehya ShawMB	3	1	3	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
15Eve AdamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	5	1	5	0	0	0	5
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	4	0	0	0	2
10Anaya ColeL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
9Ava KanjMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Hailey CampagnaOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		42	18	106	.226	36	8	7	39	2	6	3	75

Chattanoogahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Kynli KirkendollMB	3	7	0	20	.350	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	2.5	9.5
5Jordin GlassMB	3	6	2	18	.222	0	1	1	6	2	0	3	1.5	8.5
0Bailey BurgessMB	3	3	1	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
23Gracie RoseOH	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	5
16Ashley ReynoldsS	3	1	1	3	.000	12	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
6Delaney WingenbachOH	1	1	4	9	-.333	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
9Caiti BarthelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	0
1Addison WalkerOH	2	7	3	17	.235	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	7
4Mallory MerzS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	11	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Sophia GarridoOH	1	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
15Destiny WigginsOH	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
21Finley HilliardL/DS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Ryan OdenL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	16	92	.174	27	2	5	32	8	2	12	8	60

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 BUFF · CHAT 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 9 BUFFCHAT 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 9 BUFFCHAT 4

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 BUFFCHAT 3

Bars above the line = Chattanooga leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	44%4/9
2	78%7/9	73%19/26
3	39%7/18	59%10/17
4	67%6/9	14%1/7
5	50%6/12	0%0/6
6	83%5/6	38%3/8
All	61%38/62	51%37/73

Chattanooga

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	28%7/25	13%1/8
2	58%7/12	30%3/10
3	40%6/15	42%5/12
4	100%6/6	60%9/15
5	63%5/8	40%4/10
6	71%5/7	29%2/7
All	49%36/73	39%24/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	BUFF-CHAT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.7
2	2-0	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
3	2-1	BUFF	CHAT	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.6
4	3-1	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
5	3-2	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass		+1.6
6	4-2	CHAT	BUFF	Attack err	Gracie Rose		+1.7
7	5-2	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	BUFF server	aced Team	+2.1
8	5-3	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.5
9	6-3	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
10	6-4	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.5
11	6-5	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Delaney Wingenbach		+2.3
12	7-5	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
13	7-6	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.8
14	8-6	CHAT	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
15	9-6	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach		+2.3
16	10-6	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach		+2.0
17	10-7	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.4
18	11-7	CHAT	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
19	12-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin		+1.7
20	13-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Bailey Burgess		+1.4
21	14-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
22	15-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	BUFF server	aced Team	+0.7
23	16-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Ashley Reynolds		+0.5
24	17-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	BUFF server	aced Caiti Barthel	+0.3
25	18-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Anaya Cole		+0.1
26	19-7	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach		+0.1
27	19-8	BUFF	CHAT	Attack err	Tehya Shaw	blk Jordin Glass, Bailey Burgess	+0.0
28	19-9	CHAT	CHAT	Ace	CHAT server	aced Team	+0.1
29	20-9	CHAT	BUFF	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.1
30	20-10	BUFF	CHAT×3	Kill	Bailey Burgess	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
31	20-11	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.1
32	20-12	CHAT	CHAT×3	Ace	CHAT server	aced Abbie Willis	+0.1
33	21-12	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
34	21-13	BUFF	CHAT×3	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+0.1
35	21-14	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+0.2
36	21-15	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Kynli Kirkendoll	+0.3
37	22-15	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+0.4
38	22-16	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.2
39	22-17	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.4
40	23-17	CHAT	BUFF×3	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
41	24-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Jordin Glass		+0.3
42	25-17	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach	blk Tehya Shaw, Sydney Bell	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Anaya Cole	+1.9
2	1-1	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker	set Mallory Merz	+1.5
3	2-1	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
4	2-2	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Mallory Merz	+1.5
5	3-2	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
6	3-3	BUFF	CHAT×4	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+1.5
7	3-4	CHAT	CHAT×4	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Caiti Barthel	+2.2
8	3-5	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+2.2
9	3-6	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo	blk Bailey Burgess, Gracie Rose	+2.2
10	4-6	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
11	4-7	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	BUFF server		+1.7
12	5-7	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
13	5-8	BUFF	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.8
14	5-9	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Tehya Shaw		+2.2
15	5-10	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Bailey Burgess	set Addison Walker	+2.1
16	6-10	CHAT	BUFF	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+1.3
17	6-11	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.6
18	7-11	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
19	7-12	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker	set Caiti Barthel	+1.6
20	7-13	CHAT	CHAT	Attack err	Tehya Shaw	blk Kynli Kirkendoll	+1.8
21	8-13	CHAT	BUFF×4	Serve err	CHAT server		+1.0
22	9-13	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	BUFF server	aced Gracie Rose	+1.7
23	10-13	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	BUFF server	aced Jordin Glass	+2.0
24	11-13	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+2.4
25	11-14	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Mallory Merz	+2.1
26	12-14	CHAT	BUFF×9	Attack err	Destiny Wiggins	blk Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin	+1.8
27	13-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.7
28	14-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Ace	BUFF server	aced Destiny Wiggins	+2.9
29	15-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Gracie Rose		+3.0
30	16-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.9
31	17-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Mallory Merz	+2.5
32	18-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Mallory Merz		+2.1
33	19-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Attack err	Gracie Rose		+1.5
34	20-14	BUFF	BUFF×9	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Sadie Gladhill	+1.0
35	20-15	BUFF	CHAT×4	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.4
36	20-16	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Jordin Glass, Bailey Burgess	+1.0
37	20-17	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+1.5
38	20-18	CHAT	CHAT×4	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+2.3
39	21-18	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.2
40	21-19	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	BUFF server		+1.7
41	22-19	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.4
42	22-20	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	BUFF server		+1.6
43	23-20	CHAT	BUFF	Attack err	Addison Walker		+2.5
44	23-21	BUFF	CHAT	Attack err	Abbie Willis	blk Kynli Kirkendoll, Bailey Burgess	+1.4
45	23-22	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker		+3.5
46	24-22	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Mallory Merz	+4.2
47	25-22	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Addison Walker		+3.1
Set 3
1	1-0	CHAT	BUFF×4	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.8
2	2-0	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
3	3-0	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	BUFF server	aced Caiti Barthel	+1.0
4	4-0	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Eve Adams	+0.9
5	4-1	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.6
6	5-1	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
7	5-2	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Mallory Merz	+0.7
8	5-3	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+1.0
9	6-3	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.8
10	6-4	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Sophia Garrido	set Mallory Merz	+0.8
11	6-5	CHAT	CHAT	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo	blk Gracie Rose, Bailey Burgess	+1.2
12	7-5	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
13	7-6	BUFF	CHAT×3	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+0.9
14	7-7	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.3
15	7-8	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Caiti Barthel	+1.4
16	8-8	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell		+1.0
17	9-8	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Anaya Cole	+1.4
18	9-9	BUFF	CHAT	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+1.1
19	10-9	CHAT	BUFF	Serve err	CHAT server		+1.1
20	10-10	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+1.1
21	11-10	CHAT	BUFF×4	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
22	12-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Jordin Glass		+1.4
23	13-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Addison Walker	blk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo	+1.3
24	14-10	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.1
25	14-11	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker	set Mallory Merz	+0.7
26	15-11	CHAT	BUFF×3	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
27	16-11	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	BUFF server	aced Jordin Glass	+0.9
28	17-11	BUFF	BUFF×3	Bad set	Mallory Merz		+0.7
29	17-12	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.4
30	18-12	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
31	18-13	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Sophia Garrido	set Mallory Merz	+0.3
32	19-13	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
33	19-14	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.3
34	20-14	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
35	20-15	BUFF	CHAT	Kill	Bailey Burgess	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.3
36	21-15	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
37	21-16	BUFF	CHAT	Serve err	BUFF server		+0.2
38	22-16	CHAT	BUFF	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.4
39	23-16	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
40	23-17	BUFF	CHAT	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Kynli Kirkendoll	+0.0
41	23-18	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Sophia Garrido	set Mallory Merz	+0.1
42	24-18	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
43	24-19	BUFF	CHAT×3	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Mallory Merz	+0.0
44	24-20	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.1
45	24-21	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin	blk Sophia Garrido, Jordin Glass	+0.3
46	25-21	CHAT	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.