Toledo vs Buffalo Volleyball: Toledo Wins 3-1 (Sep 27, 2026)

Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 27, 2026ESPN+

3:1

Toledo won at Buffalo 3-1 (26-28, 25-20, 25-17, 25-17) on Sun, Sep 27, 2026. Toledo's Ava Siefke led with 14 kills, and Madelyn Bach added 14 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 1:45 PM CT · final Sep 27

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
TOLEDO	26	25	25	25	3
BUFF	28	20	17	17	1

Win probability

Buffalo above 50 · Toledo below

Biggest swing: 8.2% to Buffalo — set 1, TOLEDO 26-28 BUFF. Attack error by Jessica Costlow. BUFF win probability 22% → 30%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TOLEDO 87.4%12.6% BUFF

Toledo wins

3-0

40.3%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.5%

Buffalo wins

3-0

1.8%

3-1

3.9%

3-2

6.9%

TOLEDO break %: 46.0% vs this opp
BUFF break %: 37.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Jessica CostlowAttack error+8.2%
Attack error by Jessica Costlow
Set 1 · TOLEDO 26-28 BUFF · BUFF 22% → 30%
02
Ava SiefkeAttack error+6.6%
Attack error by Ava Siefke
Set 1 · TOLEDO 23-24 BUFF · BUFF 15% → 22%
03
BuffaloAce+6.6%
Buffalo ace on Ava Siefke
Set 1 · TOLEDO 26-27 BUFF · BUFF 15% → 22%
04
Jessica CostlowKill+5.7%
Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Grace Freiberger)
Set 1 · TOLEDO 25-24 BUFF · TOLEDO 83% → 89%
05
BuffaloService error+4.9%
Buffalo service error
Set 1 · TOLEDO 24-24 BUFF · TOLEDO 78% → 83%
06
Hailey CampagnaKill+4.3%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 1 · TOLEDO 23-23 BUFF · BUFF 11% → 15%
07
Anaya ColeKill+4.1%
Kill by Anaya Cole (set by Grace Freiberger)
Set 2 · TOLEDO 9-12 BUFF · BUFF 39% → 43%
08
Hailey CampagnaKill+3.9%
Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 1 · TOLEDO 25-25 BUFF · BUFF 11% → 15%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Toledoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Sierra PertzbornMB	4	13	4	29	.310	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	2.5	15.5
6Jessica CostlowOH	4	12	1	27	.407	2	3	1	12	1	0	0	0	15
14Ava SiefkeOH	4	14	4	24	.417	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14
10Kayla OzanichMB	4	10	2	28	.286	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	2.5	12.5
15Madelyn BachS	4	1	0	1	1.000	22	1	1	14	0	0	0	0	2
9Audrey DyasMB	1	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
3Janelle GreenS	4	0	0	1	.000	21	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	0
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	11	0	1	11	2	0	0	0	0
4Olivia HeitkampOH	3	6	4	12	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
23Lilly MerkMB	3	4	1	10	.300	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	6
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	1	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
21Meg JarrettL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		65	18	144	.326	58	7	6	57	8	5	2	6	101

Buffalohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Manoela ForlinOH	4	11	6	32	.156	2	0	1	10	2	1	0	1	12
2Maddie MitchellS	4	7	0	12	.583	38	3	1	9	0	1	0	1	11
20Abisola AdebayoMB	4	8	1	15	.467	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
3Sydney BellOPP	4	7	4	23	.130	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	8
1Angelina SiepierskiOH	4	0	0	1	.000	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	0	1
6Nienke TrosselMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Hailey CampagnaOH	4	12	5	38	.184	3	0	0	3	0	3	0	3	15
10Anaya ColeL/DS	4	1	0	1	1.000	3	1	3	15	0	0	0	0	2
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	4	2	0	0	0	2
15Eve AdamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Ava KanjMB	2	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Abbie WillisOH	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Chloe BrownDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	17	134	.246	47	8	11	52	7	6	4	8	82

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 TOLEDO · BUFF 4

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 3 TOLEDOBUFF 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 TOLEDOBUFF 4

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 4 TOLEDOBUFF 2

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 5 TOLEDOBUFF 2

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = Toledo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%11/15	55%11/20
2	83%10/12	52%11/21
3	60%9/15	40%6/15
4	69%9/13	61%14/23
5	44%8/18	25%3/12
6	70%7/10	22%2/9
All	65%54/83	47%47/100

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%10/23	18%2/11
2	67%10/15	29%4/14
3	41%9/22	33%5/15
4	64%9/14	40%6/15
5	67%8/12	25%3/12
6	50%7/14	56%9/16
All	53%53/100	35%29/83

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

183 rallies

#	TOLEDO-BUFF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.2
2	2-0	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Toledo	aced Manoela Forlin	+1.1
3	2-1	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.8
4	2-2	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+1.3
5	3-2	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.9
6	3-3	TOLEDO	BUFF	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+1.0
7	3-4	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+1.5
8	4-4	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
9	5-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	Toledo		+1.4
10	5-5	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
11	6-5	BUFF	TOLEDO	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.0
12	7-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.3
13	7-6	TOLEDO	BUFF	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+0.9
14	8-6	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.9
15	8-7	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
16	8-8	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Sophie Catalano	blk Hailey Campagna	+1.6
17	9-8	BUFF	TOLEDO	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+1.1
18	9-9	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.2
19	10-9	BUFF	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.1
20	11-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.5
21	12-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.2
22	12-10	TOLEDO	BUFF	Serve err	Toledo		+0.8
23	13-10	BUFF	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.9
24	14-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Sierra Pertzborn	+1.0
25	15-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Madelyn Bach	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.8
26	15-11	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
27	16-11	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+0.5
28	16-12	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+0.4
29	17-12	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.5
30	18-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.5
31	18-13	TOLEDO	BUFF	Serve err	Toledo		+0.2
32	19-13	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.3
33	19-14	TOLEDO	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Manoela Forlin	+0.2
34	19-15	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo		+0.5
35	19-16	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+0.9
36	19-17	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Nienke Trossel		+1.4
37	20-17	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+1.2
38	20-18	TOLEDO	BUFF	Blocked	Sierra Pertzborn	blk Hailey Campagna	+1.0
39	20-19	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	Buffalo	aced Avery Adamski	+2.1
40	21-19	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.8
41	21-20	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.6
42	22-20	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Janelle Green	+2.0
43	22-21	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.7
44	23-21	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+2.2
45	23-22	TOLEDO	BUFF×3	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+1.7
46	23-23	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+4.3
47	23-24	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+6.6
48	24-24	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+4.9
49	25-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+5.7
50	25-25	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.9
51	26-25	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+3.9
52	26-26	TOLEDO	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.9
53	26-27	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	Buffalo	aced Ava Siefke	+6.6
54	26-28	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+8.2
Set 2
1	1-0	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.5
2	1-1	TOLEDO	BUFF	Blocked	Lilly Merk	blk Sydney Bell, Nienke Trossel	+1.7
3	2-1	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.6
4	3-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+2.1
5	3-2	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.5
6	3-3	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Olivia Heitkamp	blk Manoela Forlin	+2.5
7	4-3	BUFF	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+1.7
8	5-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	Toledo		+2.2
9	6-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
10	6-4	TOLEDO	BUFF×4	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
11	6-5	BUFF	BUFF×4	Blocked	Olivia Heitkamp	blk Hailey Campagna	+2.3
12	6-6	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Manoela Forlin	+2.7
13	6-7	BUFF	BUFF×4	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.1
14	7-7	BUFF	TOLEDO	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+2.1
15	7-8	TOLEDO	BUFF×3	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.4
16	7-9	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Hailey Campagna	+3.6
17	7-10	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	Buffalo	aced Meg Jarrett	+3.9
18	8-10	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Grace Freiberger	+2.3
19	9-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Nienke Trossel		+3.4
20	9-11	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.9
21	9-12	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Anaya Cole	set Grace Freiberger	+4.1
22	10-12	BUFF	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.5
23	11-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Ace	Toledo	aced Manoela Forlin	+3.7
24	12-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Kayla Ozanich	+3.7
25	13-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+3.4
26	14-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Maddie Mitchell	+3.1
27	14-13	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.2
28	15-13	BUFF	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+2.2
29	16-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+2.7
30	17-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+2.0
31	18-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+1.4
32	18-14	TOLEDO	BUFF	Serve err	Toledo		+0.8
33	19-14	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
34	20-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+0.8
35	20-15	TOLEDO	BUFF×4	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
36	20-16	BUFF	BUFF×4	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+0.9
37	20-17	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo	aced Grace Freiberger	+1.5
38	20-18	BUFF	BUFF×4	Ace	Buffalo	aced Jessica Costlow	+2.5
39	21-18	BUFF	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+2.3
40	22-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Olivia Heitkamp	+2.1
41	23-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+1.1
42	23-19	TOLEDO	BUFF	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+0.3
43	24-19	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	+0.6
44	24-20	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
45	25-20	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
2	0-2	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Sierra Pertzborn	blk Abisola Adebayo	+2.7
3	1-2	BUFF	TOLEDO	Blocked	Manoela Forlin	blk Sierra Pertzborn	+1.7
4	1-3	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.0
5	2-3	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.8
6	2-4	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
7	3-4	BUFF	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+1.8
8	4-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+2.5
9	5-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+2.3
10	5-5	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Hailey Campagna	+1.8
11	6-5	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.7
12	6-6	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
13	7-6	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+1.7
14	7-7	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
15	8-7	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.8
16	8-8	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.0
17	9-8	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.9
18	9-9	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
19	10-9	BUFF	TOLEDO×4	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.9
20	11-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+2.5
21	12-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp		+2.1
22	13-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+1.7
23	13-10	TOLEDO	BUFF	Serve err	Toledo		+1.1
24	14-10	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.2
25	14-11	TOLEDO	BUFF	Serve err	Toledo		+1.1
26	15-11	BUFF	TOLEDO×4	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.2
27	16-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+1.3
28	17-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	Toledo	aced Sadie Gladhill	+0.9
29	18-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+0.5
30	18-12	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
31	18-13	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	Buffalo		+0.6
32	19-13	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+0.6
33	20-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Kayla Ozanich	+0.4
34	20-14	TOLEDO	BUFF	Serve err	Toledo		+0.2
35	21-14	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.3
36	22-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.2
37	22-15	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	·
38	22-16	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Ava Siefke	blk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo	+0.1
39	23-16	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Grace Freiberger	+0.2
40	24-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
41	24-17	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	·
42	25-17	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Grace Freiberger	·
Set 4
1	1-0	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.1
2	1-1	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Hailey Campagna	+1.2
3	1-2	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Ava Siefke	blk Maddie Mitchell	+1.9
4	2-2	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.2
5	2-3	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.4
6	3-3	BUFF	TOLEDO×5	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.3
7	4-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Lilly Merk	+1.7
8	5-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+1.5
9	6-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Lilly Merk		+1.3
10	7-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+1.1
11	7-4	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.8
12	7-5	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Nienke Trossel	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
13	8-5	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.0
14	8-6	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Grace Freiberger	+1.0
15	8-7	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	Buffalo	aced Grace Freiberger	+1.7
16	9-7	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.2
17	9-8	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
18	9-9	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+2.1
19	10-9	BUFF	TOLEDO	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.5
20	10-10	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Abisola Adebayo	+1.6
21	10-11	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+2.6
22	11-11	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+1.7
23	12-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.3
24	12-12	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
25	13-12	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.7
26	13-13	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
27	14-13	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.8
28	15-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+2.3
29	15-14	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Anaya Cole	+1.6
30	16-14	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+1.7
31	16-15	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.7
32	17-15	BUFF	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+1.8
33	17-16	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.8
34	18-16	BUFF	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+1.9
35	19-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Ace	Toledo		+2.2
36	20-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.5
37	20-17	TOLEDO	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.8
38	21-17	BUFF	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+1.1
39	22-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Ace	Toledo	aced Sadie Gladhill	+0.9
40	23-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
41	24-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
42	25-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Kayla Ozanich, Sierra Pertzborn	·

Score shown after each rally, Toledo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Toledo def. Buffalo 3–1