Final · 4 setsTue, Oct 13, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Akron def. Buffalo 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Akron 65.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 13, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Akron beat visiting Buffalo 3-1 (25-22, 27-29, 25-14, 25-22) on Tue, Oct 13, 2026. Akron's Delaney Gash led with 19 kills, and Vanessa Del Real added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 13

Set1234Sets
BUFF222914221
AKRON252725253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.364 on 44 swings: Delaney Gash and Akron edged Buffalo.

The match turned once. Numbers are Akron's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Akron at 66%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Buffalo 26–26 Akron

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Buffalo, enough to take the set 29–27 and level the match at 1–1.

    Akron 80% → 62%

Akron above 50Buffalo belowMax swing 9.0%

BuffaloAkron

Sideout %
Buffalo 51.5·Akron 60.2
Break %
Buffalo 39.8·Akron 48.5
Hitting
Buffalo .194·Akron .271
Longest run
Buffalo 5·Akron 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Akron above 50 · Buffalo below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.0% BUFFrally 189 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.0% to Buffalo — set 2, BUFF 29-27 AKRON. Kill by Ava Kanj (set by Hailey Campagna). AKRON win probability 71% → 62%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 31.7%68.3% AKRON

Buffalo wins

3-0
6.2%
3-1
11.2%
3-2
14.3%

Akron wins

3-0
22.1%
3-1
26.2%
3-2
20.0%
BUFF break %
40.2% vs this opp
AKRON break %
43.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava KanjKill+9.0%

    Kill by Ava Kanj (set by Hailey Campagna)

    Set 2 · BUFF 29-27 AKRON · BUFF 29% → 38%

  2. 02
    Masa PrascevicBad set+8.4%

    Bad set by Masa Prascevic

    Set 2 · BUFF 25-24 AKRON · BUFF 20% → 29%

  3. 03

    Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 2 · BUFF 27-26 AKRON · BUFF 20% → 29%

  4. 04
    Lauren WilsonKill+7.9%

    Kill by Lauren Wilson (set by Masa Prascevic)

    Set 2 · BUFF 25-26 AKRON · AKRON 77% → 85%

  5. 05
    Hailey CampagnaAttack error+6.3%

    Attack error by Hailey Campagna

    Set 2 · BUFF 22-23 AKRON · AKRON 78% → 84%

  6. 06
    Delaney GashKill+6.1%

    Kill by Delaney Gash (set by Masa Prascevic)

    Set 2 · BUFF 25-25 AKRON · AKRON 71% → 77%

  7. 07
    Lyndi WolfKill+6.1%

    Kill by Lyndi Wolf (set by Masa Prascevic)

    Set 2 · BUFF 27-27 AKRON · AKRON 71% → 77%

  8. 08

    Kill by Maddie Mitchell

    Set 2 · BUFF 28-27 AKRON · BUFF 23% → 29%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415748.16701153010.516.5
411325.32001230010.512.5
44214.143001003248
43311.0003502100031.54.5
4316.33300000031.54.5
42311-.091011410003
4001.0004211010002
4000–100740000
311418.3891006100011
3000–012100001
3000–000000000
Team totals4923134.194416104610310887
Akronhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419344.36420270052.521.5
46214.2860322006312
49318.3330000004211
47513.1541000016411
4001.0002200900000
4000–000640000
49329.2070000102110
45214.214010300006
4003.0001731800003
4000–8341610003
1214.25000000010.52.5
Team totals5719140.2715010951612413102

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Buffalo vs Akron

Season series · Akron leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 BUFF · AKRON 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 5 BUFFAKRON 5

Set 2

29-27

Longest run 3 BUFFAKRON 4

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 BUFFAKRON 6

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 4 BUFFAKRON 4

Bars above the line = Akron leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%7/13
25%2/8
2
47%7/15
46%6/13
3
88%7/8
22%2/9
4
43%6/14
30%3/10
5
33%5/15
33%3/9
6
50%4/8
55%6/11
All
49%36/73
37%22/60

Akron

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%7/13
38%3/8
2
70%7/10
56%9/16
3
78%7/9
42%5/12
4
67%6/9
45%5/11
5
75%6/8
50%6/12
6
45%5/11
64%9/14
All
63%38/60
51%37/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

189 rallies

#BUFF-AKRONSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Reilly Chausse+2.4
21-1BUFFAKRON×5KillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+1.7
31-2AKRONAKRON×5KillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+2.3
41-3AKRONAKRON×5BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Jordyn Aeschliman, Lyndi Wolf+2.2
51-4AKRONAKRON×5Attack errAva Kanj+2.1
61-5AKRONAKRON×5KillDelaney Gash+1.9
72-5AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+1.2
82-6BUFFAKRON×3Serve errBuffalo+1.4
92-7AKRONAKRON×3AceAkronaced Sadie Gladhill+1.6
102-8AKRONAKRON×3Attack errAbbie Willis+1.4
113-8AKRONBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+0.8
123-9BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Masa Prascevic+1.0
133-10AKRONAKRONBlockedMaddie Mitchellblk Lauren Wilson+1.1
144-10AKRONBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Masa Prascevic+0.6
154-11BUFFAKRONServe errBuffalo+0.8
165-11AKRONBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
175-12BUFFAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Masa Prascevic+0.7
186-12AKRONBUFFKillMaddie Mitchell+0.6
197-12BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlin+1.1
207-13BUFFAKRON×4Serve errBuffalo+1.0
217-14AKRONAKRON×4KillJordyn Aeschlimanset Vanessa Del Real+1.0
227-15AKRONAKRON×4BlockedManoela Forlinblk Chidera Ozoh, Delaney Gash+0.7
237-16AKRONAKRON×4KillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del Real+0.4
248-16AKRONBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
259-16BUFFBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Sadie Gladhill+0.4
269-17BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+0.4
279-18AKRONAKRONAceAkronaced Manoela Forlin+0.4
2810-18AKRONBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
2911-18BUFFBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Sadie Gladhill+0.3
3011-19BUFFAKRON×3KillLyndi Wolfset Clara Christensen+0.4
3111-20AKRONAKRON×3AceAkronaced Manoela Forlin+0.3
3211-21AKRONAKRON×3KillLyndi Wolfset Masa Prascevic+0.1
3312-21AKRONBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell·
3413-21BUFFBUFFBad setMasa Prascevic+0.1
3513-22BUFFAKRONBlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Delaney Gash, Lyndi Wolf+0.1
3614-22AKRONBUFFServe errAkron·
3715-22BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Vanessa Del Real+0.1
3815-23BUFFAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Masa Prascevic+0.1
3916-23AKRONBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell·
4017-23BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Lauren Wilson+0.1
4117-24BUFFAKRONServe errBuffalo+0.2
4218-24AKRONBUFF×5KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell·
4319-24BUFFBUFF×5Attack errJordyn Aeschliman+0.1
4420-24BUFFBUFF×5KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
4521-24BUFFBUFF×5KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
4622-24BUFFBUFF×5Attack errChidera Ozoh+1.5
4722-25BUFFAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Clara Christensen+2.5
Set 2
11-0AKRONBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.5
22-0BUFFBUFFAttack errJordyn Aeschliman+2.1
32-1BUFFAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Clara Christensen+1.4
42-2AKRONAKRONAceAkronaced Hailey Campagna+2.1
53-2AKRONBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
6–116-5BUFF 3 · AKRON 3
NCAA feed gap6 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
127-5BUFFBUFF×3KillAngelina Siepierski+2.4
137-6BUFFAKRONAttack errAngelina Siepierski+1.6
147-7AKRONAKRONKillJordyn Aeschliman+2.3
158-7AKRONBUFFKillManoela Forlin+1.8
168-8BUFFAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Delaney Gash+1.7
179-8AKRONBUFF×3KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
1810-8BUFFBUFF×3Bad setJordyn Aeschliman+2.6
1911-8BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Reilly Chausse+2.6
2011-9BUFFAKRON×4KillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del Real+1.6
2111-10AKRONAKRON×4BlockedHailey Campagnablk Lyndi Wolf, Jordyn Aeschliman+2.5
2211-11AKRONAKRON×4KillJordyn Aeschlimanset Vanessa Del Real+2.6
2311-12AKRONAKRON×4BlockedAbbie Willisblk Delaney Gash, Lyndi Wolf+2.6
2412-12AKRONBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.0
2513-12BUFFBUFF×3KillMaddie Mitchellset Clara Christensen+2.9
2614-12BUFFBUFF×3BlockedDelaney Gashblk Abisola Adebayo, Maddie Mitchell+3.0
2714-13BUFFAKRON×3KillJordyn Aeschlimanset Clara Christensen+2.0
2814-14AKRONAKRON×3AceAkronaced Chloe Brown+3.0
2914-15AKRONAKRON×3Attack errHailey Campagna+3.0
3015-15AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.2
3115-16BUFFAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Delaney Gash+2.3
3216-16AKRONBUFFBlockedLauren Wilsonblk Abisola Adebayo, Maddie Mitchell+2.3
3316-17BUFFAKRON×3KillNoelle Apratiset Masa Prascevic+2.4
3416-18AKRONAKRON×3Attack errManoela Forlin+3.2
3516-19AKRONAKRON×3AceAkronaced Chloe Brown+2.8
3617-19AKRONBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
3718-19BUFFBUFF×3KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+3.0
3819-19BUFFBUFF×3Attack errLauren Wilson+3.8
3919-20BUFFAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Masa Prascevic+3.0
4020-20AKRONBUFFBlockedJordyn Aeschlimanblk Ava Kanj, Abbie Willis+3.1
4120-21BUFFAKRONServe errBuffalo+3.4
4221-21AKRONBUFFKillAva Kanj+3.4
4322-21BUFFBUFFBlockedChidera Ozohblk Abisola Adebayo+5.6
4422-22BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+3.9
4522-23AKRONAKRONAttack errHailey Campagna+6.3
4623-23AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+4.4
4723-24BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+5.7
4824-24AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+5.7
4925-24BUFFBUFFBad setMasa Prascevic+8.4
5025-25BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Masa Prascevic+6.1
5125-26AKRONAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Masa Prascevic+7.9
5226-26AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+5.7
5327-26BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+8.4
5427-27BUFFAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Masa Prascevic+6.1
5528-27AKRONBUFFKillMaddie Mitchell+6.1
5629-27BUFFBUFFKillAva Kanjset Hailey Campagna+9.0
Set 3
10-1BUFFAKRONBlockedAbbie Willisblk Chidera Ozoh, Delaney Gash+2.2
21-1AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+2.3
31-2BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+2.3
42-2AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.4
52-3BUFFAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Masa Prascevic+2.3
63-3AKRONBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.4
74-3BUFFBUFFAttack errNoelle Aprati+3.5
84-4BUFFAKRON×4KillLauren Wilsonset Masa Prascevic+2.5
94-5AKRONAKRON×4AceAkronaced Chloe Brown+3.4
104-6AKRONAKRON×4Attack errManoela Forlin+3.3
114-7AKRONAKRON×4AceAkronaced Chloe Brown+3.0
125-7AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+2.1
136-7BUFFBUFFBad setNoelle Aprati+3.3
146-8BUFFAKRON×6Serve errBuffalo+2.5
156-9AKRONAKRON×6BlockedManoela Forlinblk Chidera Ozoh+3.2
166-10AKRONAKRON×6KillJordyn Aeschlimanset Vanessa Del Real+2.8
176-11AKRONAKRON×6AceAkronaced Angelina Siepierski+2.4
186-12AKRONAKRON×6BlockedMaddie Mitchellblk Chidera Ozoh+1.9
196-13AKRONAKRON×6KillLauren Wilsonset Vanessa Del Real+1.4
207-13AKRONBUFFBlockedLauren Wilsonblk Maddie Mitchell, Ava Kanj+0.8
218-13BUFFBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.5
228-14BUFFAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+1.3
239-14AKRONBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
249-15BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+1.3
259-16AKRONAKRONBlockedHailey Campagnablk Jordyn Aeschliman, Lyndi Wolf+1.3
2610-16AKRONBUFFAttack errLyndi Wolf+0.6
2711-16BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Sadie Gladhill+1.3
2811-17BUFFAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Clara Christensen+1.3
2911-18AKRONAKRONAttack errMaddie Mitchell+1.2
3012-18AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+0.5
3112-19BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Masa Prascevic+0.8
3213-19AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.5
3313-20BUFFAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Chloe Brown+0.7
3413-21AKRONAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Delaney Gash+0.5
3514-21AKRONBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Chloe Brown+0.2
3614-22BUFFAKRON×4KillLauren Wilsonset Masa Prascevic+0.3
3714-23AKRONAKRON×4KillJordyn Aeschlimanset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
3814-24AKRONAKRON×4KillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen·
3914-25AKRONAKRON×4BlockedManoela Forlinblk Chidera Ozoh, Jordyn Aeschliman·
Set 4
11-0AKRONBUFFAttack errChidera Ozoh+2.1
22-0BUFFBUFFAttack errDelaney Gash+3.0
32-1BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+2.0
43-1AKRONBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Clara Christensen+2.2
53-2BUFFAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Vanessa Del Real+2.1
64-2AKRONBUFFAttack errNoelle Aprati+2.3
74-3BUFFAKRON×4KillLyndi Wolfset Masa Prascevic+2.1
84-4AKRONAKRON×4KillChiara Gennariset Masa Prascevic+3.0
94-5AKRONAKRON×4KillLauren Wilsonset Vanessa Del Real+3.0
104-6AKRONAKRON×4KillLauren Wilsonset Masa Prascevic+2.9
115-6AKRONBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
125-7BUFFAKRONServe errBuffalo+2.1
135-8AKRONAKRONBlockedManoela Forlinblk Chidera Ozoh, Chiara Gennari+2.7
146-8AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+1.9
156-9BUFFAKRONAttack errAngelina Siepierski+2.0
167-9AKRONBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
177-10BUFFAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+2.1
188-10AKRONBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
199-10BUFFBUFF×4BlockedChidera Ozohblk Abisola Adebayo+3.1
2010-10BUFFBUFF×4KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+3.5
2111-10BUFFBUFF×4AceBuffaloaced Reilly Chausse+3.8
2211-11BUFFAKRON×3KillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del Real+2.7
2311-12AKRONAKRON×3Attack errAbisola Adebayo+3.7
2411-13AKRONAKRON×3AceAkronaced Manoela Forlin+3.6
2512-13AKRONBUFFServe errAkron+2.5
2613-13BUFFBUFFAttack errDelaney Gash+3.9
2713-14BUFFAKRONServe errBuffalo+2.9
2814-14AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Sadie Gladhill+3.0
2915-14BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+4.5
3015-15BUFFAKRONBlockedAbisola Adebayoblk Delaney Gash, Lyndi Wolf+3.2
3115-16AKRONAKRONBad setMaddie Mitchell+4.5
3216-16AKRONBUFFBlockedLyndi Wolfblk Abisola Adebayo+3.3
3317-16BUFFBUFFBlockedChiara Gennariblk Manoela Forlin, Ava Kanj+5.0
3417-17BUFFAKRONBad setMaddie Mitchell+3.5
3517-18AKRONAKRONKillChiara Gennariset Masa Prascevic+5.1
3618-18AKRONBUFFAttack errChidera Ozoh+3.7
3718-19BUFFAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Masa Prascevic+3.9
3818-20AKRONAKRONAttack errManoela Forlin+5.1
3919-20AKRONBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+3.3
4019-21BUFFAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+4.0
4120-21AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+3.4
4220-22BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+4.4
4320-23AKRONAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+4.6
4421-23AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
4521-24BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+3.4
4622-24AKRONBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Lyndi Wolf+1.3
4722-25BUFFAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+3.0

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).