Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Bowling Green def. Buffalo 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Bowling Green 78.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Bowling Green won at Buffalo 3-1 (25-21, 22-25, 25-21, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Bowling Green's Avery Hobson led with 21 kills, and Sydnie Hernandez added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
BGSU252225253
BUFF212521231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Avery Hobson scored 23.5 points, and Bowling Green needed them all against Buffalo.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Bowling Green's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Bowling Green 78% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Bowling Green 0–4 Buffalo

    8 straight Bowling Green points turned a 0–4 deficit into an 8–4 lead.

    Bowling Green 61% → 83%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Bowling Green 18–18 Buffalo

    From 18–18, Bowling Green scored 4 straight to lead 22–18.

    Bowling Green 71% → 86%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Bowling Green 22–22 Buffalo

    Bowling Green closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–1.

    Bowling Green 83% → >99%

Buffalo above 50Bowling Green belowMax swing 9.2%

Bowling GreenBuffalo

Sideout %
Bowling Green 58.2·Buffalo 54.2
Break %
Bowling Green 45.8·Buffalo 41.8
Hitting
Bowling Green .197·Buffalo .151
Longest run
Bowling Green 8·Buffalo 4

Avery Hobson
21 kills on .294, 23.5 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Buffalo above 50 · Bowling Green below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.2% BGSUrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.2% to Bowling Green — set 4, BGSU 24-23 BUFF. Sydney Bell stuffed by Cecily Waynar & Avery Hobson. BUFF win probability 17% → 8%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BGSU 81.5%18.5% BUFF

Bowling Green wins

3-0
33.1%
3-1
30.6%
3-2
17.8%

Buffalo wins

3-0
2.9%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
9.5%
BGSU break %
45.5% vs this opp
BUFF break %
38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Sydney Bell stuffed by Cecily Waynar & Avery Hobson

    Set 4 · BGSU 24-23 BUFF · BGSU 83% → 92%

  2. 02

    Hailey Campagna stuffed by Cecily Waynar & Amanda Otten

    Set 4 · BGSU 25-23 BUFF · BGSU 92% → 100%

  3. 03
    Avery HobsonBlock+6.5%

    Abisola Adebayo stuffed by Avery Hobson

    Set 4 · BGSU 22-22 BUFF · BGSU 77% → 83%

  4. 04

    Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Michal Benaim)

    Set 4 · BGSU 22-23 BUFF · BUFF 17% → 23%

  5. 05
    Manoela ForlinService error+5.4%

    Service error by Manoela Forlin

    Set 4 · BGSU 23-23 BUFF · BGSU 77% → 83%

  6. 06

    Avery Hobson stuffed by Sydney Bell & Ava Kanj

    Set 3 · BGSU 18-18 BUFF · BUFF 24% → 29%

  7. 07

    Hailey Campagna stuffed by Amanda Otten & Cecily Waynar

    Set 3 · BGSU 20-18 BUFF · BGSU 75% → 80%

  8. 08
    Manoela ForlinAttack error+4.7%

    Attack error by Manoela Forlin

    Set 4 · BGSU 20-21 BUFF · BGSU 73% → 78%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421651.29400092132.523.5
410641.098320100111.513.5
47317.23501150132.510.5
46212.333000000428
4238-.125440160233.55.5
4000–0031820000
4000–2111320001
25311.182000002027
2217.143000100002
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5324147.19749466287141497
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417745.22213410000020
410631.129120171031.513.5
48530.1000002006311
45516.0000231016411
4518.50000010132.57.5
4000–1913900001
44316.063000101015
4000–300520000
4000–1700600000
4000–300910000
2000–000100000
Team totals4927146.151448106243181290

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 BGSU · BUFF 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 BGSUBUFF 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 2 BGSUBUFF 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 8 BGSUBUFF 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 BGSUBUFF 3

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = Bowling Green leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Bowling Green

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%10/23
53%9/17
2
50%10/20
52%11/21
3
82%9/11
59%13/22
4
75%9/12
25%3/12
5
62%8/13
27%3/11
6
58%7/12
38%5/13
All
58%53/91
46%44/96

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
50%9/18
2
41%9/22
57%13/23
3
50%9/18
40%6/15
4
69%9/13
25%3/12
5
80%8/10
36%5/14
6
47%7/15
22%2/9
All
54%52/96
42%38/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#BGSU-BUFFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BGSUBGSUAceAnastasija Bozicaced Hailey Campagna+1.8
22-0BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.6
32-1BGSUBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+1.2
42-2BUFFBUFFAceManoela Forlinaced Sydnie Hernandez+1.8
53-2BUFFBGSUServe errManoela Forlin+1.3
63-3BGSUBUFFBlockedAvery Hobsonblk Abisola Adebayo, Sydney Bell+1.4
73-4BUFFBUFFBlockedAmanda Ottenblk Ava Kanj, Hailey Campagna+2.1
84-4BUFFBGSU×4KillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.4
95-4BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Anastasija Bozic+2.0
106-4BGSUBGSU×4Attack errAva Kanj+1.8
117-4BGSUBGSU×4Bad setMichal Benaim+1.6
127-5BGSUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+1.1
137-6BUFFBUFFAttack errFetia Rovira+1.8
148-6BUFFBGSUAttack errManoela Forlin+1.3
158-7BGSUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
169-7BUFFBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.4
179-8BGSUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
1810-8BUFFBGSU×4KillFetia Roviraset Amanda Otten+1.4
1911-8BGSUBGSU×4KillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.8
2012-8BGSUBGSU×4BlockedAbisola Adebayoblk Fetia Rovira+1.5
2113-8BGSUBGSU×4KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+1.2
2213-9BGSUBUFFAttack errAmanda Otten+0.7
2313-10BUFFBUFFBlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo+1.3
2414-10BUFFBGSUKillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+1.1
2514-11BGSUBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+1.0
2614-12BUFFBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+1.8
2714-13BUFFBUFF×4BlockedAvery Hobsonblk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo+2.3
2814-14BUFFBUFF×4KillSydney Bellset Michal Benaim+2.7
2915-14BUFFBGSUKillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+2.0
3016-14BGSUBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.6
3116-15BGSUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Michal Benaim+1.8
3216-16BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Sadie Gladhill+3.0
3317-16BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.2
3418-16BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Avery Anders+2.9
3518-17BGSUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Anaya Cole+1.9
3619-17BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Manoela Forlin+2.1
3720-17BGSUBGSUAttack errManoela Forlin+2.5
3820-18BGSUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Manoela Forlin+1.4
3921-18BUFFBGSUKillFetia Roviraset Amanda Otten+1.8
4022-18BGSUBGSUKillFetia Roviraset Amanda Otten+1.7
4122-19BGSUBUFFServe errCecily Waynar+0.7
4222-20BUFFBUFFKillAbisola Adebayo+1.8
4323-20BUFFBGSUKillFetia Roviraset Amanda Otten+2.0
4423-21BGSUBUFFBlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Abbie Willis+1.1
4524-21BUFFBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Anastasija Bozic+2.0
4625-21BGSUBGSUBlockedAbisola Adebayoblk Avery Hobson, Helen Wilford+1.0
Set 2
10-1BUFFBUFFAceMichal Benaimaced Avery Anders+1.5
21-1BUFFBGSUServe errMichal Benaim+1.0
31-2BGSUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Michal Benaim+1.1
41-3BUFFBUFFAttack errHelen Wilford+1.7
52-3BUFFBGSUServe errManoela Forlin+1.1
62-4BGSUBUFFBlockedAvery Hobsonblk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo+1.2
73-4BUFFBGSUServe errAbisola Adebayo+1.1
84-4BGSUBGSUAttack errSydney Bell+1.6
94-5BGSUBUFFBlockedFetia Rovirablk Ava Kanj, Hailey Campagna+1.2
104-6BUFFBUFFAttack errCecily Waynar+1.8
115-6BUFFBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.2
126-6BGSUBGSUBlockedHailey Campagnablk Fetia Rovira+1.7
136-7BGSUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
147-7BUFFBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.2
157-8BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
168-8BUFFBGSUBlockedAbbie Willisblk Helen Wilford, Anastasija Bozic+1.2
178-9BGSUBUFFServe errSydnie Hernandez+1.4
189-9BUFFBGSUServe errMichal Benaim+1.3
199-10BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+1.4
2010-10BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.3
2110-11BGSUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+1.5
2210-12BUFFBUFFAceAbisola Adebayoaced Sydnie Hernandez+2.2
2311-12BUFFBGSUServe errAbisola Adebayo+1.4
2411-13BGSUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+1.6
2512-13BUFFBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.4
2613-13BGSUBGSUAttack errAbbie Willis+2.1
2713-14BGSUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.7
2814-14BUFFBGSUBlockedAbbie Willisblk Anastasija Bozic+1.5
2915-14BGSUBGSUAttack errAbisola Adebayo+2.2
3015-15BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
3116-15BUFFBGSUKillFetia Roviraset Amanda Otten+1.6
3216-16BGSUBUFFServe errSydnie Hernandez+1.7
3317-16BUFFBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.7
3417-17BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+1.8
3517-18BUFFBUFFKillSydney Bellset Anaya Cole+2.9
3618-18BUFFBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Anastasija Bozic+1.9
3719-18BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.8
3819-19BGSUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Michal Benaim+2.1
3920-19BUFFBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.1
4020-20BGSUBUFFServe errAmanda Otten+2.2
4121-20BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.4
4221-21BGSUBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.5
4321-22BUFFBUFF×3Attack errFetia Rovira+4.3
4421-23BUFFBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+4.6
4522-23BUFFBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.2
4622-24BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+3.9
4722-25BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Sadie Gladhill+3.3
Set 3
10-1BGSUBUFF×4Serve errSydnie Hernandez+2.1
20-2BUFFBUFF×4AceManoela Forlin+3.2
30-3BUFFBUFF×4Attack errAvery Hobson+3.3
40-4BUFFBUFF×4AceManoela Forlinaced Avery Hobson+3.3
51-4BUFFBGSU×8KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+2.0
62-4BGSUBGSU×8BlockedSydney Bellblk Helen Wilford, Avery Hobson+3.1
73-4BGSUBGSU×8KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+3.1
84-4BGSUBGSU×8KillAvery Hobson+3.1
95-4BGSUBGSU×8BlockedHailey Campagnablk Amanda Otten+2.9
106-4BGSUBGSU×8AceAnastasija Bozicaced Anaya Cole+2.7
117-4BGSUBGSU×8KillAvery Hobson+2.4
128-4BGSUBGSU×8Bad setMichal Benaim+2.1
138-5BGSUBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+1.4
148-6BUFFBUFFAceAbisola Adebayo+2.3
159-6BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.8
1610-6BGSUBGSUAceAvery Andersaced Anaya Cole+2.2
1710-7BGSUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+1.4
1811-7BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.5
1911-8BGSUBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Hailey Campagna+1.4
2012-8BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.6
2112-9BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
2213-9BUFFBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.6
2314-9BGSUBGSUAceCecily Waynaraced Sadie Gladhill+1.8
2414-10BGSUBUFF×4KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
2514-11BUFFBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+2.0
2614-12BUFFBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+2.7
2714-13BUFFBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Amanda Otten+3.4
2815-13BUFFBGSU×3Attack errSydney Bell+2.6
2916-13BGSUBGSU×3KillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+3.2
3017-13BGSUBGSU×3Attack errSydney Bell+2.5
3117-14BGSUBUFFAttack errAnastasija Bozic+1.5
3217-15BUFFBUFFBlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Hailey Campagna+2.9
3318-15BUFFBGSUServe errManoela Forlin+2.4
3418-16BGSUBUFF×3Attack errAmanda Otten+2.1
3518-17BUFFBUFF×3Bad setAmanda Otten+4.0
3618-18BUFFBUFF×3BlockedAvery Hobsonblk Sydney Bell, Ava Kanj+5.2
3719-18BUFFBGSU×4Serve errAbisola Adebayo+3.8
3820-18BGSUBGSU×4BlockedHailey Campagnablk Amanda Otten, Cecily Waynar+5.0
3921-18BGSUBGSU×4BlockedHailey Campagnablk Amanda Otten+4.0
4022-18BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobson+2.6
4122-19BGSUBUFFServe errAvery Anders+1.1
4223-19BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.7
4324-19BGSUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Avery Anders+1.0
4424-20BGSUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
4524-21BUFFBUFFAceHailey Campagnaaced Avery Hobson+0.6
4625-21BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.0
Set 4
10-1BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlin+2.4
20-2BUFFBUFF×3Bad setAmanda Otten+2.5
30-3BUFFBUFF×3Attack errAnastasija Bozic+2.7
41-3BUFFBGSUServe errMichal Benaim+1.7
51-4BGSUBUFFKillSydney Bellset Michal Benaim+2.0
61-5BUFFBUFFBlockedHelen Wilfordblk Abisola Adebayo+2.7
72-5BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.7
83-5BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.5
93-6BGSUBUFFAttack errCecily Waynar+2.1
104-6BUFFBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.8
114-7BGSUBUFFBad setAmanda Otten+2.1
124-8BUFFBUFFBlockedCecily Waynarblk Ava Kanj+2.9
135-8BUFFBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+1.7
145-9BGSUBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
155-10BUFFBUFF×3AceHailey Campagnaaced Avery Anders+2.8
165-11BUFFBUFF×3Attack errKarli Molnau+2.5
176-11BUFFBGSUBad setMaddie Mitchell+1.3
186-12BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Sadie Gladhill+1.8
197-12BUFFBGSU×3KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+1.3
208-12BGSUBGSU×3Attack errHailey Campagna+2.3
219-12BGSUBGSU×3Attack errManoela Forlin+2.6
229-13BGSUBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.4
239-14BUFFBUFFBlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Abisola Adebayo, Sydney Bell+3.0
2410-14BUFFBGSU×3KillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.6
2511-14BGSUBGSU×3BlockedManoela Forlinblk Amanda Otten, Helen Wilford+2.7
2612-14BGSUBGSU×3Attack errManoela Forlin+3.1
2712-15BGSUBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+2.7
2812-16BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Anaya Cole+3.5
2912-17BUFFBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+3.0
3013-17BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.5
3114-17BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.7
3214-18BGSUBUFFAttack errAvery Hobson+2.7
3315-18BUFFBGSUBlockedManoela Forlinblk Cecily Waynar+1.9
3415-19BGSUBUFFKillAva Kanjset Michal Benaim+2.7
3516-19BUFFBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.8
3616-20BGSUBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.8
3717-20BUFFBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.8
3817-21BGSUBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+2.8
3918-21BUFFBGSU×3KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+1.6
4019-21BGSUBGSU×3Attack errAbisola Adebayo+3.5
4120-21BGSUBGSU×3Attack errManoela Forlin+4.7
4220-22BGSUBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+4.6
4321-22BUFFBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+3.4
4422-22BGSUBGSUBlockedAbisola Adebayoblk Avery Hobson+6.5
4522-23BGSUBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+5.9
4623-23BUFFBGSU×3Serve errManoela Forlin+5.4
4724-23BGSUBGSU×3BlockedSydney Bellblk Cecily Waynar, Avery Hobson+9.2
4825-23BGSUBGSU×3BlockedHailey Campagnablk Cecily Waynar, Amanda Otten+8.0

Score shown after each rally, Bowling Green first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).