FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeMAC

Toledo def. Oakland 3–0

(25-18, 25-23, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OAK	18	23	14	0
TOLEDO	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TOLEDO above 50 · OAK below

Biggest swing: 1.3% to Toledo — set 2, OAK 23-25 TOLEDO. Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Janelle Green). TOLEDO win probability 98% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OAK 5.9%94.1% TOLEDO

Oakland wins

3-0

0.7%

3-1

1.7%

3-2

3.5%

Toledo wins

3-0

53.0%

3-1

30.3%

3-2

10.8%

OAK break %: 36.9% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %: 48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jessica CostlowKill+1.3%
Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Janelle Green)
Set 2 · OAK 23-25 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 98% → 99%
02
Olivia RustKill+1.0%
Kill by Olivia Rust (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 1 · OAK 3-0 TOLEDO · OAK 7% → 8%
03
Ava SiefkeAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Ava Siefke
Set 1 · OAK 2-0 TOLEDO · OAK 6% → 7%
04
Ava SiefkeAttack error+0.9%
Ava Siefke stuffed by Lillian Frias & Maddie Jipping
Set 2 · OAK 12-10 TOLEDO · OAK 4% → 5%
05
Ava SiefkeKill+0.9%
Kill by Ava Siefke (set by Grace Freiberger)
Set 1 · OAK 3-2 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 92% → 93%
06
Lilly MerkKill+0.8%
Kill by Lilly Merk (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 2 · OAK 17-19 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 97% → 98%
07
Liv HosfordKill+0.8%
Kill by Liv Hosford (set by Morgin Parsley)
Set 2 · OAK 23-24 TOLEDO · OAK 1% → 2%
08
Ava SiefkeKill+0.8%
Kill by Ava Siefke (set by Madelyn Bach)
Set 1 · OAK 3-3 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 93% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Oaklandaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Molly ReckOH	3	10	5	30	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10
14Liv HosfordOH	3	8	4	21	.190	1	1	2	7	1	0	0	0	9
8Ellen ZappMB	3	2	1	11	.091	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
15Delaney SternS	3	0	0	4	.000	16	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
1Olivia RustOH	2	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
23Grace CooneyMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Morgin ParsleyS	3	1	0	2	.500	9	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	1
7Kalliann CookL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	2	0	1	13	1	0	0	0	0
3Kiley GallagherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
10Lillian FriasMB	2	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
18Maddie JippingOPP	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
13Ella MartinOH	1	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
12Ella SchomerOPP	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	16	100	.140	29	3	5	35	3	1	2	2	55

Toledohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Ava SiefkeOH	3	14	4	27	.370	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	15.5
23Lilly MerkMB	3	8	0	10	.800	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
6Jessica CostlowOH	3	8	0	20	.400	3	0	2	8	1	0	0	0	8
18Caylee SharkeyOH	2	3	1	14	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Audrey DyasMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
15Madelyn BachS	2	0	0	3	.000	11	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	3	12	0	15	.800	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	8	2	3	10	0	0	0	0	2
3Janelle GreenS	3	0	0	0	–	18	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
22Sierra PertzbornMB	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Kayla OzanichMB	1	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
12Gabbi LeBlancS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
5Sydney CrowleyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	7	100	.430	45	3	13	41	3	1	6	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 OAK · TOLEDO 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 OAKTOLEDO 6

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 OAKTOLEDO 3

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 3 OAKTOLEDO 7

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Oakland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Oakland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	29%2/7
2	41%7/17	46%6/13
3	44%7/16	50%7/14
4	64%7/11	0%0/7
5	38%5/13	22%2/9
6	67%4/6	17%1/6
All	50%37/74	32%18/56

Toledo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	14%1/7
2	54%7/13	61%11/18
3	70%7/10	63%12/19
4	88%7/8	36%4/11
5	75%6/8	57%8/14
6	80%4/5	20%1/5
All	68%38/56	50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	OAK-TOLEDO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TOLEDO	OAK×3	Kill	Grace Cooney	set Delaney Stern	+0.6
2	2-0	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.9
3	3-0	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Olivia Rust	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
4	3-1	OAK	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.7
5	3-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.9
6	3-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
7	3-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Audrey Dyas, Caylee Sharkey	+0.7
8	3-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Team	+0.6
9	3-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×6	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.5
10	4-6	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
11	5-6	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Audrey Dyas	blk Ellen Zapp	+0.7
12	5-7	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
13	5-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.6
14	6-8	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Olivia Rust	set Delaney Stern	+0.4
15	6-9	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.4
16	6-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow		+0.5
17	7-10	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Morgin Parsley	+0.3
18	7-11	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.3
19	8-11	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Morgin Parsley	+0.3
20	8-12	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.4
21	9-12	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
22	10-12	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Team	+0.6
23	10-13	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
24	11-13	TOLEDO	OAK	Bad set	Madelyn Bach		+0.5
25	11-14	OAK	TOLEDO	Serve err	OAK server		+0.5
26	11-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Olivia Rust		+0.5
27	12-15	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.4
28	13-15	OAK	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.7
29	13-16	OAK	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.6
30	13-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.6
31	13-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Janelle Green	+0.4
32	13-19	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.2
33	13-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×5	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.1
34	14-20	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
35	14-21	OAK	TOLEDO	Attack err	Ella Schomer		+0.1
36	14-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.0
37	15-22	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Morgin Parsley	+0.0
38	16-22	OAK	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.0
39	16-23	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Jessica Costlow	+0.1
40	16-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Sydney Crowley	+0.0
41	17-24	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.0
42	18-24	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Team	+0.0
43	18-25	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	OAK	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.5
2	1-1	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
3	1-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Lillian Frias	blk Lilly Merk, Ava Siefke	+0.4
4	2-2	TOLEDO	OAK	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.4
5	2-3	OAK	TOLEDO	Bad set	Kalliann Cook		+0.3
6	3-3	TOLEDO	OAK×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
7	4-3	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Molly Reck		+0.6
8	5-3	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Caylee Sharkey		+0.7
9	5-4	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Madelyn Bach	+0.4
10	6-4	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.5
11	6-5	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Morgin Parsley	+0.5
12	7-5	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Morgin Parsley	+0.6
13	7-6	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.5
14	8-6	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Morgin Parsley	+0.6
15	8-7	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.5
16	8-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.6
17	9-8	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kiley Gallagher	+0.6
18	9-9	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
19	9-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.6
20	10-10	TOLEDO	OAK×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.5
21	11-10	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.8
22	12-10	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Lillian Frias, Maddie Jipping	+0.9
23	12-11	OAK	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Caylee Sharkey	set Grace Freiberger	+0.6
24	12-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Lillian Frias		+0.8
25	12-13	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.7
26	13-13	TOLEDO	OAK	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+0.6
27	13-14	OAK	TOLEDO	Attack err	Maddie Jipping	blk Ava Siefke	+0.5
28	14-14	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Maddie Jipping	set Delaney Stern	+0.6
29	14-15	OAK	TOLEDO	Serve err	OAK server		+0.6
30	15-15	TOLEDO	OAK	Bad set	Janelle Green		+0.7
31	15-16	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.6
32	16-16	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Morgin Parsley	+0.7
33	16-17	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.7
34	17-17	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.7
35	17-18	OAK	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+0.7
36	17-19	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
37	17-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.6
38	18-20	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.4
39	18-21	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+0.5
40	18-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke		+0.4
41	19-22	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.2
42	20-22	OAK	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.5
43	20-23	OAK	TOLEDO	Serve err	OAK server		+0.5
44	21-23	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Maddie Jipping	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
45	21-24	OAK	TOLEDO	Serve err	OAK server		+0.5
46	22-24	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Morgin Parsley	set Liv Hosford	+0.2
47	23-24	OAK	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Morgin Parsley	+0.8
48	23-25	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+1.3
Set 3
1	1-0	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
2	1-1	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.2
3	2-1	TOLEDO	OAK×3	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.2
4	3-1	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+0.3
5	4-1	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
6	4-2	OAK	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.2
7	4-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Maddie Jipping		+0.3
8	4-4	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Kalliann Cook	+0.2
9	4-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.2
10	5-5	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
11	5-6	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.2
12	5-7	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+0.2
13	6-7	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Morgin Parsley	+0.2
14	6-8	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.1
15	6-9	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.2
16	7-9	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Ella Martin	set Morgin Parsley	+0.1
17	7-10	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Janelle Green	+0.1
18	7-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn		+0.1
19	8-11	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
20	8-12	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.1
21	9-12	TOLEDO	OAK×3	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
22	10-12	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Molly Reck	set Kalliann Cook	+0.2
23	11-12	OAK	OAK×3	Ace	OAK server	aced Jessica Costlow	+0.2
24	11-13	OAK	TOLEDO	Serve err	OAK server		+0.2
25	11-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Jessica Costlow	+0.2
26	12-14	TOLEDO	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
27	12-15	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Gabbi LeBlanc	+0.2
28	12-16	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.2
29	13-16	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
30	13-17	OAK	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+0.1
31	13-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Sophie Catalano, Lilly Merk	+0.1
32	14-18	TOLEDO	OAK	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
33	14-19	OAK	TOLEDO×7	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+0.1
34	14-20	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×7	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.1
35	14-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×7	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Jessica Costlow	+0.0
36	14-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×7	Attack err	Ellen Zapp		+0.0
37	14-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×7	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.0
38	14-24	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×7	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+0.0
39	14-25	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×7	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Liv Hosford	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Oakland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.