FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Cincinnati def. Oakland 3–0

(25-13, 25-18, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OAK	13	18	19	0
CINCY	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CINCY above 50 · OAK below

Biggest swing: 0.4% to Cincinnati — set 1, OAK 0-2 CINCY. Kill by Sydney Nolan (set by Kate Lijic). CINCY win probability 97% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OAK 3.5%96.5% CINCY

Oakland wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

0.9%

3-2

2.2%

Cincinnati wins

3-0

60.5%

3-1

28.0%

3-2

8.1%

OAK break %: 35.3% vs this opp
CINCY break %: 49.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sydney NolanKill+0.4%
Kill by Sydney Nolan (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · OAK 0-2 CINCY · CINCY 97% → 97%
02
Ellen ZappAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Ellen Zapp
Set 1 · OAK 2-5 CINCY · CINCY 97% → 97%
03
Ella SchomerKill+0.3%
Kill by Ella Schomer (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 1 · OAK 2-3 CINCY · OAK 3% → 3%
04
Tatjana SimeunovicKill+0.3%
Kill by Tatjana Simeunovic (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · OAK 0-1 CINCY · CINCY 97% → 97%
05
Lillian FriasKill+0.3%
Kill by Lillian Frias (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 1 · OAK 1-2 CINCY · OAK 3% → 3%
06
OAK serverService error+0.3%
Oakland service error
Set 1 · OAK 2-4 CINCY · CINCY 97% → 97%
07
CINCY serverAce+0.3%
Cincinnati ace on Kalliann Cook
Set 2 · OAK 0-1 CINCY · CINCY 98% → 99%
08
Ella SchomerAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Ella Schomer
Set 1 · OAK 1-3 CINCY · CINCY 97% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Oaklandaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Ella SchomerOPP	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8
11Molly ReckOH	3	8	3	15	.333	0	0	0	8	3	0	0	8
10Lillian FriasMB	3	5	2	10	.300	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
15Delaney SternS	3	0	0	0	–	15	2	1	5	0	0	0	2
14Liv HosfordOH	2	4	4	16	.000	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	4
8Ellen ZappMB	1	0	3	5	-.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Kamsi IweajunwaMB	3	2	2	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
7Kalliann CookL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	1	8	3	0	0	0
1Olivia RustOH	2	4	2	18	.111	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
13Ella MartinOH	2	1	1	8	.000	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	2
6Mya KattulaS	2	1	0	2	.500	5	0	1	4	0	0	0	1
18Maddie JippingOPP	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2Kate VrabelL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
4Morgin ParsleyS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	19	98	.143	32	4	7	38	9	2	1	50

Cincinnatihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Izzy BusignaniOH	3	15	2	26	.500	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	16
18Tatjana SimeunovicMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
5Lilian EntenmannMB	3	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5
6Kate LijicS	3	0	0	1	.000	37	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
1Ava LedebuhrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
2Sydney NolanOH	2	5	0	11	.455	0	2	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	7	1	20	.300	0	2	0	7	0	0	0	0	9
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	3	10	2	0	0	0	2
9Kayla HostetlerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
7Andrea SimovskiOH	1	4	1	10	.300	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
14Julia HoranMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Kayla EdgintonOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	6	89	.382	39	9	5	41	4	1	4	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 OAK · CINCY 7

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 3 OAKCINCY 7

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 OAKCINCY 4

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 5 OAKCINCY 6

Bars above the line = Cincinnati leads, below = Oakland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Oakland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	45%5/11
2	55%6/11	25%2/8
3	50%6/12	14%1/7
4	67%6/9	50%6/12
5	24%5/21	0%0/6
6	67%4/6	38%3/8
All	45%33/73	33%17/52

Cincinnati

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	64%7/11
2	67%6/9	25%2/8
3	100%6/6	45%5/11
4	50%6/12	57%8/14
5	75%6/8	45%5/11
6	56%5/9	72%13/18
All	67%35/52	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	OAK-CINCY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
2	0-2	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
3	1-2	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
4	1-3	OAK	CINCY	Attack err	Ella Schomer		+0.3
5	2-3	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
6	2-4	OAK	CINCY×4	Serve err	OAK server		+0.3
7	2-5	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Ellen Zapp		+0.3
8	2-6	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Ellen Zapp	blk Lilian Entenmann	+0.3
9	2-7	CINCY	CINCY×4	Ace	CINCY server	aced Team	+0.2
10	3-7	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
11	3-8	OAK	CINCY	Serve err	OAK server		+0.1
12	3-9	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.1
13	4-9	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Morgin Parsley	+0.1
14	4-10	OAK	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
15	4-11	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Maddie Jipping		+0.1
16	4-12	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Molly Reck	+0.1
17	5-12	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Morgin Parsley	+0.0
18	5-13	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
19	6-13	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Morgin Parsley	+0.0
20	6-14	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
21	7-14	CINCY	OAK×3	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
22	8-14	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Kalliann Cook	+0.1
23	9-14	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Lilian Entenmann		+0.1
24	9-15	OAK	CINCY	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.1
25	10-15	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
26	10-16	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
27	11-16	CINCY	OAK	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.1
28	11-17	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
29	12-17	CINCY	OAK	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.1
30	12-18	OAK	CINCY×7	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
31	12-19	CINCY	CINCY×7	Attack err	Ellen Zapp		+0.1
32	12-20	CINCY	CINCY×7	Ace	CINCY server	aced Molly Reck	+0.0
33	12-21	CINCY	CINCY×7	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
34	12-22	CINCY	CINCY×7	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
35	12-23	CINCY	CINCY×7	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
36	12-24	CINCY	CINCY×7	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
37	13-24	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Morgin Parsley	+0.0
38	13-25	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Kalliann Cook	+0.3
2	1-1	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
3	1-2	OAK	CINCY	Serve err	OAK server		+0.2
4	2-2	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Kalliann Cook	+0.2
5	2-3	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
6	3-3	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
7	3-4	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
8	3-5	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Kalliann Cook	+0.3
9	4-5	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Mya Kattula	set Kalliann Cook	+0.2
10	4-6	OAK	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
11	4-7	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Team	+0.2
12	4-8	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.2
13	5-8	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Olivia Rust	+0.1
14	5-9	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
15	6-9	CINCY	OAK	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+0.1
16	6-10	OAK	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
17	6-11	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.1
18	6-12	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.1
19	7-12	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
20	7-13	OAK	CINCY	Serve err	OAK server		+0.1
21	8-13	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
22	9-13	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Team	+0.1
23	9-14	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
24	10-14	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
25	10-15	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
26	10-16	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Olivia Rust		+0.1
27	11-16	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Kamsi Iweajunwa	set Mya Kattula	+0.1
28	11-17	OAK	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
29	11-18	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Kalliann Cook	+0.1
30	11-19	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
31	12-19	CINCY	OAK×3	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.0
32	13-19	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Olivia Rust	set Kalliann Cook	+0.0
33	14-19	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Olivia Rust, Lillian Frias	+0.1
34	14-20	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
35	14-21	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.0
36	15-21	CINCY	OAK×4	Kill	Ella Martin	set Mya Kattula	+0.0
37	16-21	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Kalliann Cook	+0.0
38	17-21	OAK	OAK×4	Ace	OAK server	aced Viktoria Ninova	+0.1
39	18-21	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.2
40	18-22	OAK	CINCY×4	Serve err	OAK server		+0.2
41	18-23	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Lillian Frias	blk Tatjana Simeunovic, Sydney Nolan	+0.1
42	18-24	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.0
43	18-25	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Ella Martin		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	OAK	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
2	2-0	OAK	OAK	Bad set	Kate Lijic		+0.2
3	2-1	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
4	3-1	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Kamsi Iweajunwa	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
5	3-2	OAK	CINCY×6	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
6	3-3	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Lillian Frias		+0.2
7	3-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
8	3-5	CINCY	CINCY×6	Ace	CINCY server	aced Molly Reck	+0.1
9	3-6	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.1
10	3-7	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
11	4-7	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
12	4-8	OAK	CINCY×4	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
13	4-9	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
14	4-10	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
15	4-11	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
16	5-11	CINCY	OAK×3	Kill	Olivia Rust	set Mya Kattula	+0.0
17	6-11	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Andrea Simovski		+0.0
18	7-11	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Lilian Entenmann		+0.1
19	7-12	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
20	8-12	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Olivia Rust	set Mya Kattula	+0.0
21	8-13	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
22	9-13	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Mya Kattula	+0.0
23	10-13	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Viktoria Ninova	+0.1
24	10-14	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
25	10-15	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Kate Vrabel	+0.1
26	11-15	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
27	11-16	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
28	11-17	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Kamsi Iweajunwa		+0.0
29	12-17	CINCY	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
30	12-18	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
31	13-18	CINCY	OAK	Bad set	Andrea Simovski		+0.0
32	13-19	OAK	CINCY	Serve err	OAK server		+0.0
33	14-19	CINCY	OAK×5	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.0
34	15-19	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Molly Reck	set Kalliann Cook	+0.1
35	16-19	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Olivia Rust	set Mya Kattula	+0.1
36	17-19	OAK	OAK×5	Ace	OAK server	aced Kayla Hostetler	+0.2
37	18-19	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Molly Reck	set Ella Martin	+0.2
38	18-20	OAK	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
39	19-20	CINCY	OAK	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.2
40	19-21	OAK	CINCY×5	Serve err	OAK server		+0.2
41	19-22	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.2
42	19-23	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Kamsi Iweajunwa		+0.1
43	19-24	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.0
44	19-25	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Olivia Rust	blk Andrea Simovski, Tatjana Simeunovic	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Oakland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.