FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

0:3

HomeHORIZON

Oakland def. Montana 3–0

(28-26, 25-15, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MONT	26	15	18	0
OAK	28	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

OAK above 50 · MONT below

Biggest swing: 9.8% to Montana — set 1, MONT 25-24 OAK. Attack error by Liv Hosford. OAK win probability 62% → 52%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MONT 37.7%62.3% OAK

Montana wins

3-0

8.0%

3-1

13.7%

3-2

16.1%

Oakland wins

3-0

18.4%

3-1

23.8%

3-2

20.0%

MONT break %: 42.2% vs this opp
OAK break %: 44.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Liv HosfordAttack error+9.8%
Attack error by Liv Hosford
Set 1 · MONT 25-24 OAK · MONT 38% → 48%
02
Josie BlazinaAttack error+9.4%
Attack error by Josie Blazina
Set 1 · MONT 25-26 OAK · OAK 59% → 69%
03
Ellen ZappAttack error+9.3%
Ellen Zapp stuffed by Josie Blazina
Set 1 · MONT 24-24 OAK · MONT 29% → 38%
04
Mylee BlakeAttack error+8.9%
Attack error by Mylee Blake
Set 1 · MONT 26-28 OAK · OAK 69% → 78%
05
Liv HosfordKill+7.6%
Kill by Liv Hosford (set by Kalliann Cook)
Set 1 · MONT 25-25 OAK · OAK 52% → 59%
06
Ellen ZappKill+7.4%
Kill by Ellen Zapp (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 1 · MONT 22-23 OAK · OAK 60% → 67%
07
Mylee BlakeKill+7.2%
Kill by Mylee Blake (set by Gracie Cagle)
Set 1 · MONT 26-26 OAK · MONT 31% → 38%
08
Ella SchomerKill+7.2%
Kill by Ella Schomer (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 1 · MONT 26-27 OAK · OAK 62% → 69%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Montanaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Josie BlazinaOH	3	10	2	22	.364	0	0	1	1	0	4	1	4.5	14.5
16Mylee BlakeOH	3	8	4	22	.182	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
11Sophia VellaMB	3	5	3	18	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
10Delaney RussellOH	3	3	5	24	-.083	0	1	1	6	1	1	0	1	5
9Gracie CagleS	3	2	1	7	.143	26	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	2
14Isabel TaylorOH	3	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
5Alex StoneOH	3	2	4	11	-.182	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
6Annika WrightS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
12Madeline SandersonDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	14	0	0	0	0	0
22Avery MerrittOH	2	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
20Kaylee PaulsonOH	2	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		34	22	124	.097	29	3	7	48	1	6	4	8	59

Oaklandhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Liv HosfordOH	3	19	6	38	.342	0	0	0	6	0	2	1	2.5	21.5
10Lillian FriasMB	3	10	1	16	.563	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
8Ellen ZappMB	3	8	3	22	.227	0	1	0	1	0	0	4	2	11
11Molly ReckOH	3	4	5	21	-.048	0	0	0	10	0	0	2	1	5
15Delaney SternS	3	2	0	4	.500	35	0	1	14	0	0	2	1	3
3Kiley GallagherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
12Ella SchomerOPP	3	5	3	25	.080	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	6
7Kalliann CookL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	1	13	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	18	126	.238	42	1	3	56	3	2	14	9	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MONT · OAK 7

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 4 MONTOAK 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 4 MONTOAK 7

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 MONTOAK 5

Bars above the line = Oakland leads, below = Montana leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Montana

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%8/22	46%6/13
2	70%7/10	38%5/13
3	75%6/8	30%3/10
4	60%6/10	40%4/10
5	45%5/11	25%2/8
6	33%5/15	29%2/7
All	49%37/76	36%22/61

Oakland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	50%6/12
2	57%8/14	62%13/21
3	58%7/12	22%2/9
4	75%6/8	33%3/9
5	83%5/6	62%8/13
6	71%5/7	58%7/12
All	64%39/61	51%39/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	MONT-OAK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MONT	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+2.4
2	1-1	MONT	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+1.8
3	1-2	OAK	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+2.3
4	2-2	OAK	MONT	Kill	Sophia Vella	set Gracie Cagle	+1.8
5	2-3	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.8
6	3-3	OAK	MONT×3	Kill	Sophia Vella	set Gracie Cagle	+1.9
7	4-3	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Josie Blazina	+2.6
8	5-3	MONT	MONT×3	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+2.6
9	5-4	MONT	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+1.9
10	6-4	OAK	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+2.1
11	7-4	MONT	MONT	Kill	Gracie Cagle	set Delaney Stern	+2.7
12	7-5	MONT	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.9
13	8-5	OAK	MONT	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Josie Blazina	+2.1
14	9-5	MONT	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Kalliann Cook	+2.6
15	9-6	MONT	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+1.7
16	10-6	OAK	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+2.0
17	10-7	MONT	OAK×3	Serve err	MONT server		+1.7
18	10-8	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Delaney Russell		+2.6
19	10-9	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Annika Wright	+2.8
20	11-9	OAK	MONT	Serve err	OAK server		+2.4
21	11-10	MONT	OAK×4	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+2.2
22	11-11	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Mylee Blake		+3.1
23	11-12	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Sophia Vella		+3.1
24	11-13	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+3.0
25	12-13	OAK	MONT×3	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+2.2
26	13-13	MONT	MONT×3	Ace	MONT server	aced Team	+3.3
27	14-13	MONT	MONT×3	Kill	Alex Stone	set Madeline Sanderson	+3.5
28	14-14	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+2.6
29	15-14	OAK	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+2.8
30	15-15	MONT	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+2.8
31	15-16	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Delaney Russell	+3.7
32	16-16	OAK	MONT	Kill	Alex Stone	set Gracie Cagle	+2.9
33	16-17	MONT	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+3.0
34	16-18	OAK	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+3.8
35	17-18	OAK	MONT	Serve err	OAK server		+2.7
36	17-19	MONT	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+3.1
37	18-19	OAK	MONT	Kill	Gracie Cagle	set Gracie Cagle	+2.8
38	18-20	MONT	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias		+3.3
39	19-20	OAK	MONT×4	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+2.9
40	20-20	MONT	MONT×4	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+4.9
41	21-20	MONT	MONT×4	Attack err	Ellen Zapp	blk Delaney Russell	+5.7
42	22-20	MONT	MONT×4	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+5.8
43	22-21	MONT	OAK×4	Serve err	MONT server		+3.5
44	22-22	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Delaney Russell	blk Ella Schomer, Ellen Zapp	+6.3
45	22-23	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+7.4
46	22-24	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Mylee Blake	blk Ella Schomer, Ellen Zapp	+6.8
47	23-24	OAK	MONT×3	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+3.0
48	24-24	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Ellen Zapp	blk Josie Blazina	+9.3
49	25-24	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+9.8
50	25-25	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+7.6
51	25-26	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Josie Blazina		+9.4
52	26-26	OAK	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+7.2
53	26-27	MONT	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+7.2
54	26-28	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Mylee Blake		+8.9
Set 2
1	0-1	OAK	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kiley Gallagher	+2.0
2	1-1	OAK	MONT	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+1.6
3	1-2	MONT	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+1.6
4	2-2	OAK	MONT	Kill	Delaney Russell	set Gracie Cagle	+1.6
5	3-2	MONT	MONT	Attack err	Ella Schomer		+2.2
6	3-3	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.7
7	4-3	OAK	MONT	Kill	Sophia Vella	set Gracie Cagle	+1.7
8	4-4	MONT	OAK	Serve err	MONT server		+1.7
9	5-4	OAK	MONT	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Josie Blazina	+1.8
10	6-4	MONT	MONT	Ace	MONT server	aced Team	+2.4
11	6-5	MONT	OAK×6	Attack err	Alex Stone		+1.7
12	6-6	OAK	OAK×6	Attack err	Josie Blazina		+2.3
13	6-7	OAK	OAK×6	Attack err	Alex Stone		+2.3
14	6-8	OAK	OAK×6	Attack err	Alex Stone	blk Delaney Stern, Lillian Frias	+2.3
15	6-9	OAK	OAK×6	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+2.1
16	6-10	OAK	OAK×6	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.9
17	7-10	OAK	MONT	Kill	Avery Merritt	set Annika Wright	+1.3
18	7-11	MONT	OAK×7	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.5
19	7-12	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.6
20	7-13	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.3
21	7-14	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Delaney Stern	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
22	7-15	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.7
23	7-16	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.5
24	7-17	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Delaney Russell		+0.3
25	8-17	OAK	MONT	Attack err	Lillian Frias		+0.1
26	8-18	MONT	OAK	Attack err	Sophia Vella	blk Liv Hosford	+0.2
27	8-19	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Delaney Russell		+0.1
28	9-19	OAK	MONT	Kill	Sophia Vella	set Gracie Cagle	+0.0
29	9-20	MONT	OAK	Attack err	Sophia Vella		+0.1
30	9-21	OAK	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Kaylee Paulson	+0.0
31	10-21	OAK	MONT	Serve err	OAK server		+0.0
32	10-22	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
33	11-22	OAK	MONT×4	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.0
34	12-22	MONT	MONT×4	Attack err	Ella Schomer	blk Josie Blazina, Alex Stone	+0.0
35	13-22	MONT	MONT×4	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Delaney Russell	+0.0
36	14-22	MONT	MONT×4	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+0.1
37	14-23	MONT	OAK	Serve err	MONT server		+0.1
38	14-24	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Alex Stone		+0.0
39	15-24	OAK	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+0.0
40	15-25	MONT	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MONT	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+0.9
2	0-2	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Delaney Russell	blk Liv Hosford, Ellen Zapp	+1.2
3	1-2	OAK	MONT	Attack err	Ella Schomer		+0.9
4	2-2	MONT	MONT	Attack err	Liv Hosford	blk Mylee Blake, Sophia Vella	+1.3
5	2-3	MONT	OAK	Serve err	MONT server		+1.0
6	3-3	OAK	MONT	Bad set	Ellen Zapp		+1.0
7	3-4	MONT	OAK	Serve err	MONT server		+1.0
8	4-4	OAK	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+1.0
9	4-5	MONT	OAK×3	Attack err	Avery Merritt	blk Molly Reck, Lillian Frias	+1.0
10	4-6	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+1.3
11	4-7	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.2
12	5-7	OAK	MONT	Kill	Avery Merritt	set Annika Wright	+0.9
13	5-8	MONT	OAK	Serve err	MONT server		+1.0
14	6-8	OAK	MONT	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.9
15	6-9	MONT	OAK×3	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
16	6-10	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Avery Merritt	blk Liv Hosford	+1.1
17	6-11	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
18	7-11	OAK	MONT×3	Kill	Kaylee Paulson	set Gracie Cagle	+0.6
19	8-11	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Molly Reck		+1.0
20	9-11	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Ellen Zapp	blk Mylee Blake	+1.2
21	9-12	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.1
22	10-12	OAK	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+1.0
23	10-13	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.1
24	10-14	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Mylee Blake	blk Molly Reck, Ellen Zapp	+1.2
25	11-14	OAK	MONT	Kill	Sophia Vella	set Gracie Cagle	+0.8
26	11-15	MONT	OAK	Attack err	Isabel Taylor		+1.0
27	12-15	OAK	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+0.8
28	12-16	MONT	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
29	13-16	OAK	MONT	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+0.8
30	13-17	MONT	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
31	13-18	OAK	OAK	Kill	Delaney Stern	set Gracie Cagle	+1.0
32	14-18	OAK	MONT×3	Kill	Josie Blazina	set Gracie Cagle	+0.6
33	15-18	MONT	MONT×3	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+1.1
34	16-18	MONT	MONT×3	Ace	MONT server	aced Team	+1.4
35	16-19	MONT	OAK	Attack err	Gracie Cagle		+1.4
36	17-19	OAK	MONT	Kill	Kaylee Paulson	set Gracie Cagle	+1.1
37	17-20	MONT	OAK×5	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.4
38	17-21	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.4
39	17-22	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.9
40	17-23	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.4
41	17-24	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.2
42	18-24	OAK	MONT	Kill	Mylee Blake	set Gracie Cagle	+0.0
43	18-25	MONT	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Montana first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.