FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

Oakland def. Eastern Mich. 3–0

(25-19, 25-16, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
E MICH	19	16	20	0
OAK	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

OAK above 50 · E MICH below

Biggest swing: 2.7% to Eastern Mich. — set 2, E MICH 10-10 OAK. Eastern Mich. ace on Molly Reck. OAK win probability 79% → 76%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

E MICH 40.2%59.8% OAK

Eastern Mich. wins

3-0

8.8%

3-1

14.7%

3-2

16.7%

Oakland wins

3-0

17.1%

3-1

22.8%

3-2

19.9%

E MICH break %: 43.0% vs this opp
OAK break %: 44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
E MICH serverAce+2.7%
Eastern Mich. ace on Molly Reck
Set 2 · E MICH 10-10 OAK · E MICH 21% → 24%
02
Ellen ZappKill+2.7%
Kill by Ellen Zapp (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 2 · E MICH 10-12 OAK · OAK 78% → 81%
03
Lillian FriasKill+2.7%
Kill by Lillian Frias (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 1 · E MICH 7-9 OAK · OAK 62% → 65%
04
Molly ReckAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Molly Reck
Set 1 · E MICH 6-6 OAK · E MICH 37% → 40%
05
Natalie SlusherAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Natalie Slusher
Set 1 · E MICH 4-5 OAK · OAK 60% → 62%
06
Azra EriçAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Azra Eriç
Set 1 · E MICH 4-4 OAK · OAK 57% → 60%
07
Lillian FriasKill+2.5%
Kill by Lillian Frias
Set 1 · E MICH 7-10 OAK · OAK 65% → 67%
08
E MICH serverAce+2.5%
Eastern Mich. ace on Kiley Gallagher
Set 1 · E MICH 3-1 OAK · E MICH 42% → 45%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Eastern Mich.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Natalie SlusherOH	3	7	5	23	.087	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	7
17Taeley MahlerOH	3	6	3	18	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
12Olivia BeaudrieOH	3	1	1	4	.000	2	5	1	3	0	0	0	0	6
5Maddie HermanMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
18Azra EriçMB	3	2	3	10	-.100	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	2.5	4.5
1Lina GovoniS	3	1	0	3	.333	19	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
19Lily SparkOH	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	6
6Madelyn SipeDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
16Surabhi SrinivasanDS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
9Mia SchaeferL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
10Haley TroskyOH	2	5	3	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
7Kaylin SchroederS	2	0	0	3	.000	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
2Kayla OstranderDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	17	96	.156	28	6	5	33	4	3	2	4	55

Oaklandhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Lillian FriasMB	3	11	1	21	.476	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	12.5
8Ellen ZappMB	3	8	2	15	.400	2	0	1	7	0	0	4	2	10
11Molly ReckOH	3	7	2	19	.263	0	0	0	9	4	0	1	0.5	7.5
14Liv HosfordOH	3	5	4	16	.063	1	1	0	10	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
15Delaney SternS	3	4	0	5	.800	33	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	6
3Kiley GallagherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
12Ella SchomerOPP	3	10	2	22	.364	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
7Kalliann CookL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
13Ella MartinOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		46	11	101	.347	37	4	3	38	6	2	10	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 E MICH · OAK 7

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 E MICHOAK 7

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 E MICHOAK 7

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 E MICHOAK 5

Bars above the line = Oakland leads, below = Eastern Mich. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Eastern Mich.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	0%0/5
2	43%6/14	57%8/14
3	40%6/15	45%5/11
4	50%6/12	40%4/10
5	38%5/13	40%4/10
6	40%4/10	17%1/6
All	45%33/74	39%22/56

Oakland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	63%10/16
2	43%6/14	50%6/12
3	67%6/9	63%10/16
4	55%6/11	45%5/11
5	83%5/6	64%9/14
6	100%4/4	20%1/5
All	61%34/56	55%41/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	E MICH-OAK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	OAK	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+2.3
2	1-1	OAK	E MICH×3	Bad set	Molly Reck		+1.8
3	2-1	E MICH	E MICH×3	Ace	E MICH server	aced Molly Reck	+2.4
4	3-1	E MICH	E MICH×3	Ace	E MICH server	aced Kiley Gallagher	+2.5
5	3-2	E MICH	OAK	Serve err	E MICH server		+1.9
6	4-2	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Maddie Herman	set Lina Govoni	+2.0
7	4-3	E MICH	OAK×4	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+1.9
8	4-4	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Azra Eriç		+2.5
9	4-5	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Natalie Slusher		+2.5
10	4-6	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+2.5
11	5-6	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Natalie Slusher	set Surabhi Srinivasan	+1.9
12	6-6	E MICH	E MICH	Attack err	Molly Reck		+2.6
13	6-7	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+2.1
14	7-7	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Azra Eriç	set Lina Govoni	+2.1
15	7-8	E MICH	OAK×4	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+2.1
16	7-9	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+2.7
17	7-10	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Lillian Frias		+2.5
18	7-11	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Delaney Stern	set Lina Govoni	+2.2
19	8-11	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Lily Spark	set Lina Govoni	+1.6
20	8-12	E MICH	OAK	Serve err	E MICH server		+1.8
21	9-12	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Lily Spark	set Lina Govoni	+1.6
22	9-13	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+1.8
23	9-14	OAK	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+2.0
24	10-14	OAK	E MICH	Serve err	OAK server		+1.3
25	10-15	E MICH	OAK×7	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+1.5
26	10-16	OAK	OAK×7	Ace	OAK server	aced Natalie Slusher	+1.5
27	10-17	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Olivia Beaudrie	+1.1
28	10-18	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Taeley Mahler	blk Liv Hosford, Ellen Zapp	+0.7
29	10-19	OAK	OAK×7	Ace	OAK server	aced Natalie Slusher	+0.4
30	10-20	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Ellen Zapp		+0.2
31	10-21	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Natalie Slusher	blk Ella Schomer, Ellen Zapp	+0.1
32	11-21	OAK	E MICH×3	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.0
33	12-21	E MICH	E MICH×3	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Azra Eriç	+0.1
34	13-21	E MICH	E MICH×3	Attack err	Ella Schomer	blk Azra Eriç, Taeley Mahler	+0.1
35	13-22	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
36	13-23	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Azra Eriç		+0.1
37	14-23	OAK	E MICH×3	Kill	Natalie Slusher	set Olivia Beaudrie	+0.0
38	15-23	E MICH	E MICH×3	Ace	E MICH server	aced Molly Reck	+0.0
39	16-23	E MICH	E MICH×3	Kill	Lina Govoni	set Madelyn Sipe	+0.1
40	16-24	E MICH	OAK	Attack err	Natalie Slusher	blk Ella Schomer, Ellen Zapp	+0.1
41	17-24	OAK	E MICH×3	Kill	Azra Eriç	set Lina Govoni	+0.0
42	18-24	E MICH	E MICH×3	Kill	Lily Spark	set Lina Govoni	+0.1
43	19-24	E MICH	E MICH×3	Kill	Lily Spark	set Lina Govoni	+0.1
44	19-25	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.6
2	1-1	OAK	E MICH×3	Serve err	OAK server		+1.7
3	2-1	E MICH	E MICH×3	Ace	E MICH server	aced Molly Reck	+2.2
4	3-1	E MICH	E MICH×3	Kill	Taeley Mahler	set Delaney Stern	+2.3
5	3-2	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Delaney Stern		+1.7
6	4-2	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Natalie Slusher	set Lina Govoni	+1.8
7	4-3	E MICH	OAK	Attack err	Taeley Mahler	blk Molly Reck, Ellen Zapp	+1.7
8	5-3	OAK	E MICH	Bad set	Lillian Frias		+1.9
9	5-4	E MICH	OAK×3	Serve err	E MICH server		+1.8
10	5-5	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Liv Hosford	+2.3
11	5-6	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Lillian Frias		+2.4
12	6-6	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Natalie Slusher	set Lina Govoni	+1.9
13	6-7	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.9
14	6-8	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Lily Spark	blk Lillian Frias	+2.4
15	7-8	OAK	E MICH	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+1.8
16	7-9	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.9
17	8-9	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Maddie Herman	set Lina Govoni	+1.9
18	8-10	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+2.0
19	9-10	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Taeley Mahler	set Lina Govoni	+1.9
20	10-10	E MICH	E MICH	Ace	E MICH server	aced Molly Reck	+2.7
21	10-11	E MICH	OAK×3	Bad set	Natalie Slusher		+2.1
22	10-12	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+2.7
23	10-13	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+2.5
24	11-13	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Taeley Mahler	set Lina Govoni	+1.8
25	11-14	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+2.0
26	11-15	OAK	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+2.2
27	12-15	OAK	E MICH	Serve err	OAK server		+1.5
28	13-15	E MICH	E MICH	Attack err	Lillian Frias		+2.3
29	13-16	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+2.1
30	14-16	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Haley Trosky	set Kaylin Schroeder	+1.9
31	14-17	E MICH	OAK	Serve err	E MICH server		+2.2
32	15-17	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Haley Trosky	set Kaylin Schroeder	+1.9
33	15-18	E MICH	OAK×7	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+2.3
34	15-19	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Haley Trosky	blk Liv Hosford	+2.4
35	15-20	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Olivia Beaudrie		+1.8
36	15-21	OAK	OAK×7	Ace	OAK server	aced Team	+1.1
37	15-22	OAK	OAK×7	Bad set	Lily Spark		+0.6
38	15-23	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
39	15-24	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Lily Spark		+0.1
40	16-24	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Maddie Herman	set Kaylin Schroeder	+0.0
41	16-25	E MICH	OAK	Bad set	Kaylin Schroeder		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	OAK	E MICH×3	Kill	Olivia Beaudrie	set Surabhi Srinivasan	+1.0
2	2-0	E MICH	E MICH×3	Kill	Natalie Slusher	set Olivia Beaudrie	+1.3
3	3-0	E MICH	E MICH×3	Ace	E MICH server	aced Team	+1.3
4	3-1	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
5	4-1	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Maddie Herman	set Lina Govoni	+1.1
6	5-1	E MICH	E MICH	Attack err	Ellen Zapp		+1.3
7	5-2	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.9
8	6-2	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Taeley Mahler	set Lina Govoni	+1.0
9	6-3	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.9
10	7-3	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Natalie Slusher	set Lina Govoni	+1.1
11	7-4	E MICH	OAK×5	Serve err	E MICH server		+0.9
12	7-5	OAK	OAK×5	Attack err	Azra Eriç		+1.3
13	7-6	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.4
14	7-7	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+1.5
15	7-8	OAK	OAK×5	Attack err	Haley Trosky		+1.5
16	8-8	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Haley Trosky	set Madelyn Sipe	+1.2
17	8-9	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Delaney Stern		+1.2
18	9-9	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Haley Trosky	set Lina Govoni	+1.2
19	9-10	E MICH	OAK×3	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.2
20	9-11	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+1.5
21	9-12	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Haley Trosky		+1.4
22	10-12	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Taeley Mahler		+1.0
23	11-12	E MICH	E MICH	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+1.5
24	11-13	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Delaney Stern		+1.3
25	12-13	OAK	E MICH×3	Kill	Taeley Mahler	set Lina Govoni	+1.3
26	13-13	E MICH	E MICH×3	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+1.8
27	14-13	E MICH	E MICH×3	Attack err	Ellen Zapp	blk Azra Eriç	+1.9
28	14-14	E MICH	OAK×5	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+1.5
29	14-15	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Kalliann Cook	+1.9
30	14-16	OAK	OAK×5	Attack err	Taeley Mahler		+1.9
31	14-17	OAK	OAK×5	Attack err	Natalie Slusher		+1.7
32	14-18	OAK	OAK×5	Ace	OAK server	aced Team	+1.4
33	15-18	OAK	E MICH	Kill	Natalie Slusher	set Lina Govoni	+0.9
34	15-19	E MICH	OAK×5	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+1.1
35	15-20	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Molly Reck	set Ellen Zapp	+1.1
36	15-21	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.7
37	15-22	OAK	OAK×5	Attack err	Natalie Slusher	blk Lillian Frias, Ella Schomer	+0.3
38	15-23	OAK	OAK×5	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Ellen Zapp	+0.1
39	16-23	OAK	E MICH×3	Kill	Lily Spark	set Olivia Beaudrie	+0.0
40	17-23	E MICH	E MICH×3	Attack err	Ella Schomer	blk Lily Spark	+0.1
41	18-23	E MICH	E MICH×3	Kill	Haley Trosky	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
42	18-24	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Ella Martin	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
43	19-24	OAK	E MICH	Bad set	Delaney Stern		+0.1
44	20-24	E MICH	E MICH	Kill	Maddie Herman	set Kaylin Schroeder	+0.2
45	20-25	E MICH	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Eastern Mich. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.