FinalSun, Sep 20, 2026

Illinois St. def. Oakland 3–0

Illinois St. won at Oakland 3-0 (25-22, 25-22, 25-23) on Sun, Sep 20, 2026. Illinois St.'s Jillian Ferrill led with 15 kills, and Samantha Bunch added 21 digs.

Data through · final Sep 20

Set123Sets
ILL ST2525253
OAK2222230

Win probability

Oakland above 50 · Illinois St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+5.5% ILL STrally 142 · set 3

Biggest swing: 5.5% to Illinois St. — set 2, ILL ST 24-22 OAK. Illinois St. ace on Molly Reck. OAK win probability 15% → 10%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ILL ST 67.0%33.0% OAK

Illinois St. wins

3-0
21.2%
3-1
25.7%
3-2
20.0%

Oakland wins

3-0
6.6%
3-1
11.7%
3-2
14.7%
ILL ST break %
43.7% vs this opp
OAK break %
40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Illinois St.Ace+5.5%

    Illinois St. ace on Molly Reck

    Set 2 · ILL ST 24-22 OAK · ILL ST 85% → 90%

  2. 02
    Jillian GregoryAttack error+5.0%

    Attack error by Jillian Gregory

    Set 2 · ILL ST 22-22 OAK · OAK 15% → 20%

  3. 03
    Lillian FriasAttack error+4.6%

    Attack error by Lillian Frias

    Set 2 · ILL ST 21-20 OAK · ILL ST 79% → 84%

  4. 04
    Abby ReckKill+4.4%

    Kill by Abby Reck (set by Ella Craggs)

    Set 2 · ILL ST 23-22 OAK · ILL ST 80% → 85%

  5. 05
    Delaney SternBad set+4.2%

    Bad set by Delaney Stern

    Set 2 · ILL ST 22-20 OAK · ILL ST 84% → 88%

  6. 06
    Ella MartinAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Ella Martin

    Set 2 · ILL ST 20-20 OAK · ILL ST 75% → 79%

  7. 07
    Lillian FriasBlock+4.1%

    Jillian Gregory stuffed by Lillian Frias

    Set 2 · ILL ST 18-20 OAK · OAK 24% → 28%

  8. 08
    Delaney SternAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Delaney Stern

    Set 1 · ILL ST 17-16 OAK · ILL ST 65% → 69%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
315428.3930011000015
38115.4670000020210
36627.000021120008
38117.412000200008
31011.00013311000004
32216.000201900002
33414-.071000004047
3000–000200000
3000–12032110000
2000–1001500000
1000–300300000
Team totals4318118.212405854460675
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310134.26502110100012
37316.2500001022310
36116.313100100217
35213.231000000216
33819-.26301070010.54.5
3213.3332701110111.53.5
3000–011800001
3000–3001100000
23111.182000100003
2000–003100000
Team totals3617112.170314651538767

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 ILL ST · OAK 4

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 ILL STOAK 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 ILL STOAK 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 ILL STOAK 4

Bars above the line = Oakland leads, below = Illinois St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
63%12/19
2
73%8/11
43%6/14
3
64%7/11
22%2/9
4
55%6/11
33%3/9
5
50%6/12
54%7/13
6
55%6/11
40%4/10
All
60%41/68
46%34/74

Oakland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
40%4/10
2
50%8/16
43%6/14
3
88%7/8
33%4/12
4
60%6/10
22%2/9
5
40%6/15
57%8/14
6
56%5/9
33%3/9
All
54%40/74
40%27/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

142 rallies

#ILL ST-OAKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ILL STOAK×3KillLiv Hosfordset Kalliann Cook+1.7
20-2OAKOAK×3KillMolly Reckset Kalliann Cook+2.4
30-3OAKOAK×3BlockedJillian Gregoryblk Ellen Zapp, Ella Schomer+2.5
41-3OAKILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+1.6
51-4ILL STOAKKillElla Schomerset Delaney Stern+1.8
62-4OAKILL STServe errOakland+1.6
72-5ILL STOAKKillDelaney Sternset Logan Grevengoed+1.9
82-6OAKOAKKillLillian Friasset Ella Craggs+2.5
93-6OAKILL ST×3Serve errOakland+1.6
104-6ILL STILL ST×3Attack errLillian Frias+2.4
115-6ILL STILL ST×3Attack errLiv Hosford+2.5
125-7ILL STOAKAttack errAddisyn Pohl+2.0
135-8OAKOAKKillLiv Hosfordset Delaney Stern+2.7
146-8OAKILL STAttack errLiv Hosford+1.8
157-8ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+2.7
167-9ILL STOAKKillLillian Friasset Delaney Stern+2.1
177-10OAKOAKAttack errJillian Gregory+2.9
188-10OAKILL STBlockedLiv Hosfordblk Addisyn Pohl+1.8
198-11ILL STOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+2.2
208-12OAKOAKKillEllen Zapp+2.8
219-12OAKILL ST×4Serve errOakland+1.7
2210-12ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+2.7
2311-12ILL STILL ST×4Bad setDelaney Stern+3.0
2412-12ILL STILL ST×4AceIllinois St.+3.1
2512-13ILL STOAKAttack errAbby Reck+2.4
2613-13OAKILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+2.3
2713-14ILL STOAKKillElla Schomerset Delaney Stern+2.6
2814-14OAKILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+2.4
2914-15ILL STOAKKillElla Schomerset Delaney Stern+2.7
3015-15OAKILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+2.6
3115-16ILL STOAKKillLillian Friasset Delaney Stern+2.8
3216-16OAKILL ST×4Serve errOakland+2.7
3317-16ILL STILL ST×4Attack errDelaney Stern+3.8
3418-16ILL STILL ST×4KillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+3.6
3519-16ILL STILL ST×4BlockedLiv Hosfordblk Addisyn Pohl+3.1
3619-17ILL STOAKBlockedAddisyn Pohlblk Delaney Stern+1.9
3719-18OAKOAKKillLiv Hosfordset Kalliann Cook+3.5
3820-18OAKILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+3.0
3920-19ILL STOAKBlockedJillian Ferrillblk Liv Hosford, Ellen Zapp+2.7
4021-19OAKILL STAttack errLiv Hosford+3.2
4121-20ILL STOAKKillElla Schomerset Delaney Stern+2.8
4222-20OAKILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+3.6
4323-20ILL STILL STKillAbby Reckset Delaney Stern+3.7
4423-21ILL STOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+1.5
4524-21OAKILL STServe errOakland+2.7
4624-22ILL STOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+1.1
4725-22OAKILL STServe errOakland+2.4
Set 2
11-0OAKILL STAttack errLiv Hosford+1.4
21-1ILL STOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+1.4
31-2OAKOAKKillEllen Zappset Delaney Stern+2.0
42-2OAKILL ST×3KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+1.4
53-2ILL STILL ST×3KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Kohnen+2.0
64-2ILL STILL ST×3Bad setDelaney Stern+1.9
74-3ILL STOAK×4Serve errIllinois St.+1.4
84-4OAKOAK×4KillLillian Friasset Delaney Stern+2.0
94-5OAKOAK×4BlockedOliwia Caputablk Ella Schomer, Lillian Frias+2.2
104-6OAKOAK×4KillLillian Friasset Delaney Stern+2.3
115-6OAKILL STServe errOakland+1.5
125-7ILL STOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+1.7
135-8OAKOAKAceOakland+2.3
146-8OAKILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+1.5
157-8ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+2.3
167-9ILL STOAK×4Serve errIllinois St.+1.8
177-10OAKOAK×4Attack errJillian Gregory+2.5
187-11OAKOAK×4AceOaklandaced Jillian Gregory+2.3
197-12OAKOAK×4BlockedJillian Ferrillblk Lillian Frias+2.1
208-12OAKILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+1.2
219-12ILL STILL STKillAbby Reck+2.0
229-13ILL STOAKKillLillian Friasset Delaney Stern+1.8
2310-13OAKILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.4
2411-13ILL STILL ST×3Attack errLiv Hosford+2.3
2512-13ILL STILL ST×3BlockedLiv Hosfordblk Abby Reck+2.6
2612-14ILL STOAKKillEllen Zappset Delaney Stern+2.2
2713-14OAKILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.9
2813-15ILL STOAKKillEllen Zappset Delaney Stern+2.3
2913-16OAKOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+3.0
3014-16OAKILL STKillAbby Reckset Oliwia Caputa+1.8
3114-17ILL STOAKKillEllen Zappset Ella Schomer+2.3
3215-17OAKILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Kohnen+1.8
3316-17ILL STILL STBlockedLillian Friasblk Addisyn Pohl+3.0
3416-18ILL STOAKKillElla Schomerset Delaney Stern+2.6
3517-18OAKILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Kohnen+2.3
3618-18ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Oliwia Caputa+3.6
3718-19ILL STOAKServe errIllinois St.+2.9
3818-20OAKOAKBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Lillian Frias+4.1
3919-20OAKILL ST×4KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+2.5
4020-20ILL STILL ST×4Attack errElla Martin+4.2
4121-20ILL STILL ST×4Attack errLillian Frias+4.6
4222-20ILL STILL ST×4Bad setDelaney Stern+4.2
4322-21ILL STOAKKillElla Martinset Delaney Stern+2.5
4422-22OAKOAKAttack errJillian Gregory+5.0
4523-22OAKILL ST×3KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+4.4
4624-22ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Molly Reck+5.5
4725-22ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+2.9
Set 3
11-0ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.+1.1
22-0ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.+1.0
33-0ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+0.9
43-1ILL STOAKServe errIllinois St.+0.7
54-1OAKILL STAttack errMolly Reck+0.7
64-2ILL STOAKServe errIllinois St.+0.7
74-3OAKOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+1.0
85-3OAKILL STKillElla Craggs+0.8
95-4ILL STOAKAttack errLogan Grevengoed+0.8
106-4OAKILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.8
116-5ILL STOAK×4Bad setOliwia Caputa+0.8
126-6OAKOAK×4AceOaklandaced Samantha Bunch+1.2
136-7OAKOAK×4BlockedOliwia Caputablk Delaney Stern, Lillian Frias+1.3
146-8OAKOAK×4KillLillian Frias+1.3
157-8OAKILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+0.9
168-8ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Samantha Bunch+1.3
178-9ILL STOAKKillElla Martinset Delaney Stern+1.0
189-9OAKILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.0
199-10ILL STOAKServe errIllinois St.+1.0
2010-10OAKILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.0
2111-10ILL STILL ST×3BlockedElla Schomerblk Abby Reck+1.4
2212-10ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.3
2312-11ILL STOAK×3Attack errJillian Gregory+0.9
2412-12OAKOAK×3AceOaklandaced Jillian Gregory+1.5
2512-13OAKOAK×3KillElla Schomerset Delaney Stern+1.6
2613-13OAKILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.1
2714-13ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.+1.6
2814-14ILL STOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+1.2
2915-14OAKILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+1.2
3015-15ILL STOAKServe errIllinois St.+1.2
3116-15OAKILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.2
3216-16ILL STOAKKillDelaney Stern+1.3
3317-16OAKILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Kohnen+1.3
3417-17ILL STOAKServe errIllinois St.+1.4
3518-17OAKILL STBlockedEllen Zappblk Addisyn Pohl+1.4
3618-18ILL STOAK×4KillElla Martinset Delaney Stern+1.4
3718-19OAKOAK×4Attack errJillian Ferrill+2.2
3818-20OAKOAK×4Attack errAddisyn Pohl+2.3
3918-21OAKOAK×4Attack errAddisyn Pohl+2.1
4019-21OAKILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+1.1
4119-22ILL STOAKAttack errJillian Ferrill+1.6
4220-22OAKILL ST×5KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+1.0
4321-22ILL STILL ST×5Attack errEllen Zapp+2.2
4422-22ILL STILL ST×5KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+3.0
4523-22ILL STILL ST×5KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+3.5
4624-22ILL STILL ST×5KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+3.1
4724-23ILL STOAKKillMolly Reckset Delaney Stern+1.3
4825-23OAKILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+2.9

Score shown after each rally, Illinois St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).