FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

UNI def. Rice 3–0

(25-18, 25-20, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
N IOWA	25	25	25	3
RICE	18	20	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

RICE above 50 · N IOWA below

Biggest swing: 5.9% to UNI — set 3, N IOWA 25-23 RICE. Ashlyn Seay stuffed by Isabelle Elliott & Grace Hannam. RICE win probability 6% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

N IOWA 56.4%43.6% RICE

UNI wins

3-0

15.4%

3-1

21.4%

3-2

19.6%

Rice wins

3-0

10.0%

3-1

16.1%

3-2

17.5%

N IOWA break %: 39.5% vs this opp
RICE break %: 38.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ashlyn SeayAttack error+5.9%
Ashlyn Seay stuffed by Isabelle Elliott & Grace Hannam
Set 3 · N IOWA 25-23 RICE · N IOWA 94% → 100%
02
Grace HannamKill+4.2%
Kill by Grace Hannam
Set 3 · N IOWA 22-21 RICE · N IOWA 88% → 93%
03
Sydnee PetersonAttack error+3.9%
Sydnee Peterson stuffed by Grace Hannam & Isabelle Elliott
Set 3 · N IOWA 24-23 RICE · N IOWA 90% → 94%
04
N IOWA serverAce+3.8%
UNI ace on Sydnee Peterson
Set 2 · N IOWA 15-14 RICE · N IOWA 73% → 76%
05
Kellen DorotikAttack error+3.7%
Kellen Dorotik stuffed by Grace Hannam & Lily Dykstra
Set 2 · N IOWA 16-14 RICE · N IOWA 76% → 80%
06
Ashlyn SeayAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Ashlyn Seay
Set 2 · N IOWA 19-16 RICE · N IOWA 81% → 84%
07
Taryn RiceKill+3.3%
Kill by Taryn Rice (set by Kaia Mateo)
Set 2 · N IOWA 12-12 RICE · N IOWA 69% → 73%
08
Lily DykstraKill+3.3%
Kill by Lily Dykstra (set by Taryn Rice)
Set 3 · N IOWA 20-20 RICE · N IOWA 85% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNIaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Lily DykstraOH	3	20	2	44	.409	0	1	2	10	0	0	1	0.5	21.5
10Maryn BixbyMB	3	8	0	14	.571	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	4	12
11Isabelle ElliottOH	3	9	2	23	.304	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	11
2Cassidy HartmanOH	3	8	5	27	.111	2	0	2	13	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
16Grace HannamMB	3	2	0	5	.400	1	0	1	2	0	0	5	2.5	4.5
6Reese BoothS	3	1	0	6	.167	35	1	2	13	0	0	0	0	2
1Taryn RiceDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	2	1	0	11	0	0	0	0	2
21Jadyn PetersenDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	6	0	2	16	0	0	0	0	1
13Calia ClubbOPP	3	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		50	11	126	.310	46	3	9	66	1	3	14	10	75

Ricehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Kellen DorotikOPP	3	11	1	21	.476	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
5Sydnee PetersonOH	3	11	3	38	.211	1	0	1	11	1	0	0	11
12Ashlyn SeayOH	3	8	6	36	.056	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	9
13Stephanie GutierrezMB	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
21Arissa SmithMB	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	5
3Kaia MateoS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	16	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Jordan HummelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
16Mari FuroyamaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	24	0	0	0	0
18Zora BelloS	1	0	0	3	.000	12	0	1	6	0	2	1	1
22Amalia SimmonsMB	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
11Ellie SchneiderMB	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Bella LopezOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Campbell LoveL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
10Declan EastmanL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Savannah SkopalS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	16	133	.173	36	1	5	56	3	10	5	61

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 N IOWA · RICE 6

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 3 N IOWARICE 2

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 N IOWARICE 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 N IOWARICE 6

Bars above the line = Rice leads, below = UNI leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNI

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	33%3/9
2	58%7/12	53%8/15
3	78%7/9	46%6/13
4	70%7/10	53%8/15
5	70%7/10	42%5/12
6	58%7/12	22%2/9
All	68%43/63	44%32/73

Rice

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	0%0/8
2	50%7/14	36%4/11
3	58%7/12	42%5/12
4	44%7/16	30%3/10
5	78%7/9	0%0/7
6	67%6/9	53%8/15
All	56%41/73	32%20/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	N IOWA-RICE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	RICE	N IOWA×3	Serve err	RICE server		+1.7
2	2-0	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Bad set	Kellen Dorotik		+2.6
3	3-0	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Arissa Smith		+2.4
4	3-1	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+1.4
5	4-1	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+1.6
6	4-2	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+1.5
7	5-2	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+1.6
8	5-3	N IOWA	RICE	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Kellen Dorotik	+1.5
9	6-3	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+1.6
10	6-4	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+1.5
11	7-4	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.7
12	7-5	N IOWA	RICE	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Amalia Simmons, Stephanie Gutierrez	+1.5
13	8-5	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.7
14	8-6	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+1.6
15	9-6	RICE	N IOWA	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+1.7
16	9-7	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+1.6
17	10-7	RICE	N IOWA	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson	blk Isabelle Elliott, Grace Hannam	+1.8
18	10-8	N IOWA	RICE	Bad set	Grace Hannam		+1.6
19	11-8	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+1.8
20	12-8	N IOWA	N IOWA	Attack err	Stephanie Gutierrez	blk Maryn Bixby	+2.5
21	12-9	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kellen Dorotik	+1.4
22	13-9	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+1.6
23	14-9	N IOWA	N IOWA	Attack err	Amalia Simmons		+2.1
24	14-10	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+1.0
25	15-10	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.3
26	15-11	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Savannah Skopal	+1.0
27	16-11	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.3
28	16-12	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Savannah Skopal	+1.0
29	17-12	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.3
30	17-13	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+0.9
31	17-14	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+2.1
32	18-14	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Jadyn Petersen	set Reese Booth	+1.8
33	19-14	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Reese Booth	set Kaia Mateo	+2.0
34	19-15	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Mari Furoyama	+0.8
35	20-15	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+1.2
36	20-16	N IOWA	RICE	Attack err	Calia Clubb		+0.7
37	21-16	RICE	N IOWA×3	Serve err	RICE server		+1.1
38	22-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.9
39	23-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.4
40	23-17	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Savannah Skopal	+0.1
41	24-17	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.1
42	24-18	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.0
43	25-18	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+2.5
2	1-1	N IOWA	RICE×3	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+1.6
3	1-2	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+2.6
4	1-3	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Sydnee Peterson	+2.6
5	2-3	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+1.6
6	3-3	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Jadyn Petersen	+2.6
7	3-4	N IOWA	RICE×4	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+1.7
8	3-5	RICE	RICE×4	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez		+2.7
9	3-6	RICE	RICE×4	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Kaia Mateo	+2.6
10	3-7	RICE	RICE×4	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Kaia Mateo, Stephanie Gutierrez	+2.4
11	4-7	RICE	N IOWA×3	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.3
12	5-7	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Grace Hannam	+2.4
13	6-7	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+2.7
14	6-8	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+1.9
15	7-8	RICE	N IOWA×3	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+1.7
16	8-8	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+2.9
17	9-8	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Stephanie Gutierrez	blk Cassidy Hartman, Maryn Bixby	+3.0
18	9-9	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+1.9
19	10-9	RICE	N IOWA	Attack err	Kaia Mateo	blk Maryn Bixby	+2.0
20	10-10	N IOWA	RICE×3	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+2.0
21	10-11	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+3.3
22	10-12	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+3.3
23	11-12	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+1.9
24	12-12	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Taryn Rice	set Kaia Mateo	+3.3
25	12-13	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+2.3
26	13-13	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+2.2
27	13-14	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+2.4
28	14-14	RICE	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+2.3
29	15-14	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Ace	N IOWA server	aced Sydnee Peterson	+3.8
30	16-14	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik	blk Grace Hannam, Lily Dykstra	+3.7
31	16-15	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+2.1
32	17-15	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+2.4
33	17-16	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+2.2
34	18-16	RICE	N IOWA×4	Serve err	RICE server		+2.6
35	19-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+3.5
36	20-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Ace	N IOWA server	aced Campbell Love	+2.6
37	21-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+1.7
38	21-17	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.6
39	22-17	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+1.0
40	23-17	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Taryn Rice	+0.7
41	23-18	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
42	23-19	RICE	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+0.5
43	24-19	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Cassidy Hartman	+0.6
44	24-20	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
45	25-20	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.3
Set 3
1	1-0	RICE	N IOWA×3	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+1.0
2	2-0	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+1.6
3	3-0	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+1.5
4	3-1	N IOWA	RICE	Attack err	Isabelle Elliott		+0.9
5	3-2	RICE	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Zora Bello	+1.5
6	4-2	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+1.0
7	4-3	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Zora Bello	+1.0
8	5-3	RICE	N IOWA	Serve err	RICE server		+1.0
9	5-4	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Mari Furoyama	+1.0
10	6-4	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.1
11	6-5	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Zora Bello	+1.0
12	7-5	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.1
13	7-6	N IOWA	RICE×6	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Zora Bello	+1.1
14	7-7	RICE	RICE×6	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Mari Furoyama	+1.8
15	7-8	RICE	RICE×6	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Zora Bello, Arissa Smith	+1.9
16	7-9	RICE	RICE×6	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Mari Furoyama	+1.9
17	7-10	RICE	RICE×6	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Zora Bello	+1.9
18	7-11	RICE	RICE×6	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Zora Bello, Arissa Smith	+1.7
19	8-11	RICE	N IOWA×3	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.9
20	9-11	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Ace	N IOWA server	aced Jordan Hummel	+1.7
21	10-11	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Jadyn Petersen	+1.9
22	10-12	N IOWA	RICE	Serve err	N IOWA server		+1.4
23	11-12	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+1.2
24	11-13	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Zora Bello	+1.4
25	12-13	RICE	N IOWA×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay	blk Isabelle Elliott, Grace Hannam	+1.3
26	13-13	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+2.2
27	14-13	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+2.3
28	15-13	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Cassidy Hartman	+2.3
29	15-14	N IOWA	RICE×3	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Zora Bello	+1.3
30	15-15	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Isabelle Elliott		+2.4
31	15-16	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Zora Bello	+2.6
32	16-16	RICE	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Stephanie Gutierrez	blk Maryn Bixby	+1.6
33	17-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+2.7
34	18-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+2.6
35	18-17	N IOWA	RICE×4	Attack err	Calia Clubb		+1.5
36	18-18	RICE	RICE×4	Ace	RICE server	aced Team	+2.8
37	18-19	RICE	RICE×4	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+3.2
38	18-20	RICE	RICE×4	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Zora Bello	+3.2
39	19-20	RICE	N IOWA	Serve err	RICE server		+1.7
40	20-20	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Taryn Rice	+3.3
41	20-21	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Zora Bello	+2.4
42	21-21	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+2.3
43	22-21	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Grace Hannam		+4.2
44	22-22	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Zora Bello	+2.6
45	23-22	RICE	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Jadyn Petersen	+3.2
46	23-23	N IOWA	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Zora Bello	+3.0
47	24-23	RICE	N IOWA	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson	blk Grace Hannam, Isabelle Elliott	+3.9
48	25-23	N IOWA	N IOWA	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay	blk Isabelle Elliott, Grace Hannam	+5.9

Score shown after each rally, UNI first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.