FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayACC

3:0

HomeMVC

Louisville def. UNI 3–0

(25-11, 25-17, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LOUIS	25	25	25	3
N IOWA	11	17	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

N IOWA above 50 · LOUIS below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Louisville — set 3, LOUIS 24-23 N IOWA. Kill by Chloe Meester (set by Blair Thiebaud). N IOWA win probability 1% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LOUIS 97.0%3.0% N IOWA

Louisville wins

3-0

62.2%

3-1

27.3%

3-2

7.5%

UNI wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.8%

3-2

1.9%

LOUIS break %: 48.7% vs this opp
N IOWA break %: 34.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Chloe MeesterKill+0.6%
Kill by Chloe Meester (set by Blair Thiebaud)
Set 3 · LOUIS 24-23 N IOWA · LOUIS 99% → 100%
02
Blair ThiebaudKill+0.6%
Kill by Blair Thiebaud (set by Reese Booth)
Set 3 · LOUIS 23-23 N IOWA · LOUIS 98% → 99%
03
Cassidy HartmanKill+0.5%
Kill by Cassidy Hartman (set by Jadyn Petersen)
Set 3 · LOUIS 21-23 N IOWA · N IOWA 2% → 2%
04
Cassidy HartmanKill+0.5%
Kill by Cassidy Hartman (set by Reese Booth)
Set 3 · LOUIS 18-21 N IOWA · N IOWA 2% → 2%
05
Brooke BultemaKill+0.5%
Kill by Brooke Bultema (set by Blair Thiebaud)
Set 3 · LOUIS 25-23 N IOWA · LOUIS 100% → 100%
06
Chloe MeesterAttack error+0.4%
Chloe Meester stuffed by Lily Dykstra & Grace Hannam
Set 2 · LOUIS 8-9 N IOWA · N IOWA 2% → 2%
07
Maryn BixbyAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Maryn Bixby
Set 3 · LOUIS 21-22 N IOWA · LOUIS 98% → 98%
08
N IOWA serverAce+0.4%
UNI ace on Chloe Meester
Set 3 · LOUIS 15-18 N IOWA · N IOWA 1% → 2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Louisvilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
24Kalyssa BlackshearOPP	3	10	0	21	.476	0	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	12.5
7Chloe ChicoineOH	3	10	0	32	.313	0	0	2	7	0	1	0.5	10.5
44Brooke BultemaMB	3	7	0	10	.700	0	0	1	0	0	6	3	10
4Addison MakunMB	3	6	0	11	.545	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
22Blair ThiebaudS	3	6	0	9	.667	34	0	2	7	0	3	1.5	7.5
3Kamden SchrandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	9	0	0	0	2
2Chloe MeesterOH	3	7	6	23	.043	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	7.5
6Hannah KennyS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	2
21Payton PetersenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	18	0	0	0	0
17Molly UrbanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	6	106	.377	37	4	5	46	1	20	10	75

UNIhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Cassidy HartmanOH	3	13	9	45	.089	0	0	0	9	3	0	0	0	13
15Lily DykstraOH	3	12	6	33	.182	0	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
11Isabelle ElliottOH	3	4	2	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
10Maryn BixbyMB	3	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
16Grace HannamMB	3	2	0	5	.400	1	0	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
6Reese BoothS	3	1	0	3	.333	24	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	1
13Calia ClubbOPP	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Jadyn PetersenDS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	11	0	0	0	0	1
1Taryn RiceDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	6	0	0	0	0	0
8Sophie BuysseDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	19	112	.161	32	1	4	46	4	1	2	2	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 LOUIS · N IOWA 3

Set 1

25-11

Longest run 8 LOUISN IOWA 2

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 4 LOUISN IOWA 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 LOUISN IOWA 3

Bars above the line = UNI leads, below = Louisville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Louisville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	68%15/22
2	80%8/10	33%4/12
3	88%7/8	42%5/12
4	56%5/9	67%10/15
5	63%5/8	0%0/5
6	71%5/7	38%3/8
All	73%38/52	50%37/74

UNI

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%8/22	0%0/6
2	64%7/11	20%2/10
3	54%7/13	30%3/10
4	42%5/12	0%0/7
5	83%5/6	50%5/10
6	50%5/10	44%4/9
All	50%37/74	27%14/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	LOUIS-N IOWA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Kill	Addison Makun	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.4
2	2-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Attack err	Lily Dykstra		+0.3
3	3-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Attack err	Lily Dykstra		+0.3
4	4-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
5	5-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.2
6	6-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
7	7-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.1
8	8-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×8	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.1
9	8-1	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.0
10	9-1	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
11	9-2	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.0
12	10-2	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
13	11-2	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Cassidy Hartman	+0.0
14	11-3	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.0
15	12-3	N IOWA	LOUIS	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.0
16	13-3	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Maryn Bixby	blk Chloe Meester, Brooke Bultema	+0.0
17	13-4	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.0
18	13-5	N IOWA	N IOWA	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.0
19	14-5	N IOWA	LOUIS	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Blair Thiebaud, Brooke Bultema	+0.0
20	14-6	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.0
21	15-6	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
22	16-6	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
23	16-7	LOUIS	N IOWA	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.0
24	17-7	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
25	17-8	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.0
26	18-8	N IOWA	LOUIS×3	Kill	Addison Makun	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
27	19-8	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Isabelle Elliott	blk Brooke Bultema, Chloe Chicoine	+0.0
28	20-8	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Blair Thiebaud	set Reese Booth	+0.0
29	20-9	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.0
30	20-10	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Grace Hannam	+0.0
31	21-10	N IOWA	LOUIS	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.0
32	21-11	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.0
33	22-11	N IOWA	LOUIS×4	Kill	Addison Makun	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
34	23-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Bad set	Reese Booth		+0.0
35	24-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
36	25-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
2	1-1	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.2
3	2-1	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
4	2-2	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.2
5	2-3	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman		+0.3
6	3-3	N IOWA	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Payton Petersen	+0.2
7	4-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Blair Thiebaud	set Reese Booth	+0.3
8	5-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Brooke Bultema, Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
9	5-4	LOUIS	N IOWA	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.2
10	6-4	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
11	6-5	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.2
12	6-6	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.3
13	7-6	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Payton Petersen	+0.2
14	8-6	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Kalyssa Blackshear, Addison Makun	+0.3
15	8-7	LOUIS	N IOWA×3	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.2
16	8-8	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Reese Booth	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.3
17	8-9	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Chloe Meester	blk Lily Dykstra, Grace Hannam	+0.4
18	9-9	N IOWA	LOUIS×4	Kill	Blair Thiebaud		+0.3
19	10-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.4
20	11-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.3
21	12-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.2
22	12-10	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.2
23	13-10	N IOWA	LOUIS×3	Kill	Addison Makun	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
24	14-10	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
25	15-10	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
26	15-11	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.1
27	16-11	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
28	17-11	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.1
29	17-12	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.0
30	18-12	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Blair Thiebaud	set Sophie Buysse	+0.1
31	19-12	LOUIS	LOUIS	Bad set	Reese Booth		+0.0
32	19-13	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.0
33	20-13	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Blair Thiebaud		+0.0
34	20-14	LOUIS	N IOWA	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.0
35	21-14	N IOWA	LOUIS	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.0
36	21-15	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.0
37	22-15	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
38	22-16	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.0
39	23-16	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
40	23-17	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.0
41	24-17	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
42	25-17	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Lily Dykstra	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
2	1-1	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
3	1-2	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.1
4	2-2	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Addison Makun	+0.1
5	2-3	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.1
6	3-3	N IOWA	LOUIS	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Brooke Bultema, Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.1
7	4-3	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Brooke Bultema, Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
8	4-4	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.1
9	5-4	N IOWA	LOUIS	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.1
10	5-5	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.1
11	5-6	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.2
12	6-6	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
13	6-7	LOUIS	N IOWA	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
14	7-7	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
15	7-8	LOUIS	N IOWA	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.1
16	8-8	N IOWA	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.1
17	9-8	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Cassidy Hartman	+0.1
18	10-8	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Isabelle Elliott		+0.1
19	11-8	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Cassidy Hartman	+0.1
20	11-9	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.1
21	12-9	N IOWA	LOUIS	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.1
22	12-10	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.1
23	12-11	N IOWA	N IOWA	Bad set	Blair Thiebaud		+0.1
24	13-11	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.1
25	13-12	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Maryn Bixby	+0.1
26	14-12	N IOWA	LOUIS	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.1
27	14-13	LOUIS	N IOWA×3	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
28	14-14	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Bad set	Blair Thiebaud		+0.2
29	14-15	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Calia Clubb	set Taryn Rice	+0.3
30	15-15	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
31	15-16	LOUIS	N IOWA×3	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.2
32	15-17	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Chloe Meester	blk Grace Hannam	+0.3
33	15-18	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Ace	N IOWA server	aced Chloe Meester	+0.4
34	16-18	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
35	17-18	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.3
36	17-19	LOUIS	N IOWA	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.3
37	18-19	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
38	18-20	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.3
39	18-21	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.5
40	19-21	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
41	19-22	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.4
42	20-22	N IOWA	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.2
43	21-22	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Maryn Bixby		+0.4
44	21-23	LOUIS	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.5
45	22-23	N IOWA	LOUIS×4	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.3
46	23-23	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Blair Thiebaud	set Reese Booth	+0.6
47	24-23	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.6
48	25-23	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Louisville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.