Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UNI def. Southern Ill. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UNI 98.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UNI won at Southern Ill. 3-1 (25-17, 23-25, 25-13, 25-15) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. UNI's Cassidy Hartman led with 18 kills, and Jadyn Petersen added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
N IOWA252325253
SIU172513151

Match story · written from the play-by-play

A 7–0 run in the first set broke it open for UNI.

The biggest single-rally swing was 2.1 points, and Southern Ill.'s high was 14% in Set 3. The gap came from these numbers. UNI went in as RallyIQ's 98% pick.

UNISouthern Ill.
  • Break %+19.5 pts
    50.531.0

    Points won on own serve: 49 of 97 vs 22 of 71. Southern Ill. sided out 49.5% of the time.

  • Hitting+.182
    .303.121

    Kills and errors: 61–17 vs 38–21.

  • Longest run+4
    73

    UNI scored 7 straight in the first set to open the set 7–0. That set ended 25–17.

Southern Ill. above 50UNI belowMax swing 2.1%

UNISouthern Ill.

Aces
UNI 6·Southern Ill. 3
Serve err
UNI 10·Southern Ill. 8
Blocks
UNI 8·Southern Ill. 64 BS · 8 BA vs 0 BS · 12 BA
Digs
UNI 68·Southern Ill. 54

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Ill. above 50 · UNI below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.1% SIUrally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.1% to Southern Ill. — set 2, N IOWA 23-25 SIU. Lily Dykstra stuffed by Chloe Anderson. SIU win probability 3% → 5%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

N IOWA 98.2%1.8% SIU

UNI wins

3-0
68.5%
3-1
24.4%
3-2
5.4%

Southern Ill. wins

3-0
0.2%
3-1
0.4%
3-2
1.2%
N IOWA break %
50.6% vs this opp
SIU break %
34.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Chloe AndersonBlock+2.1%

    Lily Dykstra stuffed by Chloe Anderson

    Set 2 · N IOWA 23-25 SIU · SIU 3% → 5%

  2. 02
    Calia ClubbAttack error+2.0%

    Attack error by Calia Clubb

    Set 3 · N IOWA 1-6 SIU · SIU 11% → 13%

  3. 03
    Ida AlmkvistKill+1.8%

    Kill by Ida Almkvist (set by Ella McFarland)

    Set 3 · N IOWA 1-5 SIU · SIU 10% → 11%

  4. 04

    Kill by Cassidy Hartman (set by Jadyn Petersen)

    Set 3 · N IOWA 4-7 SIU · N IOWA 87% → 89%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ella Swansiger (set by Ella McFarland)

    Set 3 · N IOWA 2-7 SIU · SIU 12% → 14%

  6. 06

    Kill by Cassidy Hartman (set by Taryn Rice)

    Set 3 · N IOWA 5-7 SIU · N IOWA 89% → 91%

  7. 07

    Kill by Cassidy Hartman (set by Reese Booth)

    Set 3 · N IOWA 7-8 SIU · N IOWA 90% → 92%

  8. 08
    Lily DykstraAttack error+1.5%

    Attack error by Lily Dykstra

    Set 3 · N IOWA 0-3 SIU · SIU 8% → 9%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UNIaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418441.341000151111.519.5
414526.34600030132.516.5
411019.57913230010.514.5
411639.1281129020214
46213.30800010031.57.5
4105.20042111400002
4000–10131800001
4000–202520000
3002.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6117145.3035661068348898
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411441.1711018100011
47414.214000000218
43214.071003000425
4116.0002922900425
4001.0000121210001
1329.111000000003
48434.11800010010.58.5
45420.05000000010.55.5
4001.0002001900000
3000–100410000
1000–000000000
1000–400100000
Team totals3821140.1213738546012670

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UNI vs Southern Ill.

Season series · UNI leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 N IOWA · SIU 3

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 7 N IOWASIU 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 N IOWASIU 3

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 7 N IOWASIU 3

Set 4

25-15

Longest run 5 N IOWASIU 3

Bars above the line = Southern Ill. leads, below = UNI leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UNI

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%7/12
55%6/11
2
55%6/11
63%10/16
3
71%5/7
67%10/15
4
71%5/7
38%3/8
5
100%5/5
62%8/13
6
100%5/5
50%5/10
All
70%33/47
58%42/73

Southern Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
32%6/19
42%5/12
2
63%5/8
33%3/9
3
33%5/15
38%3/8
4
38%5/13
38%3/8
5
71%5/7
0%0/5
6
45%5/11
0%0/5
All
42%31/73
30%14/47

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

168 rallies

#N IOWA-SIUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SIUN IOWA×7KillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.2
22-0N IOWAN IOWA×7BlockedNatalie Vanceblk Cassidy Hartman, Grace Hannam+0.2
33-0N IOWAN IOWA×7KillCassidy Hartmanset Jadyn Petersen+0.2
44-0N IOWAN IOWA×7KillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.1
55-0N IOWAN IOWA×7KillGrace Hannam+0.1
66-0N IOWAN IOWA×7BlockedMcKenzie Moellerblk Grace Hannam, Calia Clubb+0.1
77-0N IOWAN IOWA×7Attack errChloe Anderson+0.1
87-1N IOWASIUKillNatalie Vanceset Ella McFarland·
98-1SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth·
108-2N IOWASIUKillIda Almkvistset Ella McFarland·
118-3SIUSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Ella McFarland+0.1
129-3SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Jadyn Petersen+0.1
139-4N IOWASIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland+0.1
1410-4SIUN IOWA×3KillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth+0.1
1511-4N IOWAN IOWA×3KillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth+0.1
1612-4N IOWAN IOWA×3KillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth·
1712-5N IOWASIUBad setCassidy Hartman·
1813-5SIUN IOWA×3KillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth·
1914-5N IOWAN IOWA×3Attack errElla Swansiger·
2015-5N IOWAN IOWA×3AceUNI·
2115-6N IOWASIUServe errUNI·
2216-6SIUN IOWAServe errSouthern Ill.·
2316-7N IOWASIUServe errUNI·
2417-7SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth·
2518-7N IOWAN IOWAAttack errNatalie Vance·
2618-8N IOWASIUServe errUNI·
2719-8SIUN IOWABlockedIda Almkvistblk Grace Hannam, Calia Clubb·
2819-9N IOWASIUServe errUNI·
2920-9SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Jadyn Petersen·
3021-9N IOWAN IOWAAttack errReese Booth·
3121-10N IOWASIU×3Serve errUNI·
3221-11SIUSIU×3KillElla Swansigerset Lillian Dempkey·
3321-12SIUSIU×3Attack errCassidy Hartman·
3422-12SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth·
3522-13N IOWASIUKillIda Almkvistset Lillian Dempkey·
3623-13SIUN IOWAServe errSouthern Ill.·
3723-14N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey·
3824-14SIUN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth·
3924-15N IOWASIU×3KillElla Swansigerset Lillian Dempkey·
4024-16SIUSIU×3KillNatalie Vanceset Jillian Shaneyfelt·
4124-17SIUSIU×3KillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland·
4225-17SIUN IOWAServe errSouthern Ill.·
Set 2
11-0N IOWAN IOWA×3KillGrace Hannamset Reese Booth+0.2
22-0N IOWAN IOWA×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.1
33-0N IOWAN IOWA×3KillGrace Hannamset Reese Booth+0.1
43-1N IOWASIUBad setJadyn Petersen+0.1
54-1SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.1
65-1N IOWAN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.1
75-2N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.1
85-3SIUSIUAttack errGrace Hannam+0.1
96-3SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Lily Dykstra+0.1
106-4N IOWASIUServe errUNI+0.1
116-5SIUSIUBlockedCassidy Hartmanblk Ella McFarland, Beatriz Piaia+0.2
127-5SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.1
137-6N IOWASIUKillIda Almkvistset Ella McFarland+0.1
147-7SIUSIUAceSouthern Ill.aced Taryn Rice+0.2
158-7SIUN IOWA×3Serve errSouthern Ill.+0.2
169-7N IOWAN IOWA×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.2
1710-7N IOWAN IOWA×3Attack errElla McFarland+0.1
1810-8N IOWASIUAttack errLily Dykstra+0.1
1911-8SIUN IOWAServe errSouthern Ill.+0.1
2011-9N IOWASIUAttack errLily Dykstra+0.1
2112-9SIUN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth+0.1
2212-10N IOWASIUKillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+0.1
2313-10SIUN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth+0.1
2413-11N IOWASIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+0.1
2514-11SIUN IOWAAttack errIda Almkvist+0.1
2614-12N IOWASIUKillIda Almkvistset Ella McFarland+0.1
2715-12SIUN IOWABad setElla McFarland+0.1
2816-12N IOWAN IOWAAttack errBeatriz Piaia+0.1
2916-13N IOWASIUServe errUNI+0.1
3016-14SIUSIUAttack errLily Dykstra+0.2
3117-14SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth+0.2
3217-15N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.2
3318-15SIUN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth+0.2
3418-16N IOWASIU×3KillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+0.2
3518-17SIU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
3618-18SIUSIU×3AceSouthern Ill.aced Cassidy Hartman+0.5
3719-18SIUN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth+0.3
3819-19N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.4
3920-19SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.4
4020-20N IOWASIUKillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+0.4
4121-20SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth+0.4
4221-21N IOWASIUServe errUNI+0.5
4322-21SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth+0.5
4422-22N IOWASIUBlockedCassidy Hartmanblk Ella McFarland, Beatriz Piaia+0.6
4522-23SIUSIUBlockedCassidy Hartmanblk Ella McFarland, Beatriz Piaia+1.1
4623-23SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth+0.8
4723-24N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.1
4823-25SIUSIUBlockedLily Dykstrablk Chloe Anderson+2.1
Set 3
10-1SIUSIU×3KillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+1.0
20-2SIUSIU×3BlockedLily Dykstrablk Chloe Anderson+1.3
30-3SIUSIU×3Attack errLily Dykstra+1.5
41-3SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Jadyn Petersen+0.9
51-4N IOWASIU×3Serve errUNI+1.2
61-5SIUSIU×3KillIda Almkvistset Ella McFarland+1.8
71-6SIUSIU×3Attack errCalia Clubb+2.0
82-6SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+1.1
92-7N IOWASIUKillElla Swansigerset Ella McFarland+1.6
103-7SIUN IOWA×3KillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth+1.2
114-7N IOWAN IOWA×3KillCassidy Hartmanset Jadyn Petersen+1.6
125-7N IOWAN IOWA×3KillCassidy Hartmanset Taryn Rice+1.6
135-8N IOWASIUKillIda Almkvistset Ella McFarland+1.5
146-8SIUN IOWA×7KillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth+1.1
157-8N IOWAN IOWA×7KillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth+1.5
168-8N IOWAN IOWA×7KillLily Dykstraset Jadyn Petersen+1.4
179-8N IOWAN IOWA×7KillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth+1.2
1810-8N IOWAN IOWA×7KillMaryn Bixbyset Ella McFarland+1.0
1911-8N IOWAN IOWA×7KillMaryn Bixbyset Lily Dykstra+0.8
2012-8N IOWAN IOWA×7BlockedBeatriz Piaiablk Lily Dykstra+0.6
2112-9N IOWASIUKillElla McFarlandset McKenzie Moeller+0.4
2213-9SIUN IOWAKillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth+0.4
2313-10N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.4
2414-10SIUN IOWA×4KillReese Booth+0.4
2515-10N IOWAN IOWA×4KillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.4
2616-10N IOWAN IOWA×4BlockedChloe Andersonblk Lily Dykstra+0.3
2717-10N IOWAN IOWA×4Attack errChloe Anderson+0.2
2817-11N IOWASIUKillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+0.1
2918-11SIUN IOWA×4KillLily Dykstraset Jadyn Petersen+0.1
3019-11N IOWAN IOWA×4AceUNIaced Julia Laidig+0.1
3120-11N IOWAN IOWA×4BlockedMcKenzie Moellerblk Calia Clubb·
3221-11N IOWAN IOWA×4BlockedElla Swansigerblk Cassidy Hartman·
3321-12N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland·
3421-13SIUSIUKillElla Swansigerset Reese Booth·
3522-13SIUN IOWA×4KillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth·
3623-13N IOWAN IOWA×4Attack errElla Swansiger·
3724-13N IOWAN IOWA×4KillCassidy Hartmanset Maryn Bixby·
3825-13N IOWAN IOWA×4Attack errChloe Anderson·
Set 4
11-0N IOWAN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth+0.5
22-0N IOWAN IOWAKillGrace Hannamset Reese Booth+0.5
32-1N IOWASIUKillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+0.4
43-1SIUN IOWAServe errSouthern Ill.+0.3
53-2N IOWASIUKillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+0.4
64-2SIUN IOWA×5KillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.3
75-2N IOWAN IOWA×5KillCassidy Hartmanset Jadyn Petersen+0.4
86-2N IOWAN IOWA×5Attack errElla Swansiger+0.3
97-2N IOWAN IOWA×5BlockedIda Almkvistblk Maryn Bixby, Calia Clubb+0.2
108-2N IOWAN IOWA×5KillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth+0.2
118-3N IOWASIUKillIda Almkvistset Ella McFarland+0.1
128-4SIUSIUAttack errCalia Clubb+0.2
139-4SIUN IOWAKillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth+0.2
149-5N IOWASIUKillIda Almkvistset Ella McFarland+0.2
1510-5SIUN IOWAKillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth+0.2
1610-6N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.2
1711-6SIUN IOWA×3Serve errSouthern Ill.+0.2
1812-6N IOWAN IOWA×3AceUNIaced Dafne Sosa+0.2
1913-6N IOWAN IOWA×3AceUNIaced McKenzie Moeller+0.1
2013-7N IOWASIUServe errUNI+0.1
2114-7SIUN IOWAKillGrace Hannamset Reese Booth+0.1
2214-8N IOWASIUAttack errCalia Clubb+0.1
2315-8SIUN IOWAKillCalia Clubbset Reese Booth+0.1
2415-9N IOWASIU×3Attack errGrace Hannam+0.1
2515-10SIUSIU×3Attack errCalia Clubb+0.2
2615-11SIUSIU×3BlockedCalia Clubbblk Beatriz Piaia, Ida Almkvist+0.3
2716-11SIUN IOWA×4KillCassidy Hartmanset Reese Booth+0.2
2817-11N IOWAN IOWA×4AceUNI+0.2
2918-11N IOWAN IOWA×4Attack errIda Almkvist+0.1
3019-11N IOWAN IOWA×4KillCassidy Hartmanset Jadyn Petersen+0.1
3119-12N IOWASIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland·
3220-12SIUN IOWAKillMaryn Bixbyset Reese Booth·
3320-13N IOWASIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland·
3421-13SIUN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Reese Booth·
3521-14N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Dafne Sosa·
3622-14SIUN IOWAKillLily Dykstraset Jadyn Petersen·
3723-14N IOWAN IOWAKillGrace Hannamset Taryn Rice·
3823-15N IOWASIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland·
3924-15SIUN IOWAServe errSouthern Ill.·
4025-15N IOWAN IOWAAceUNI·

Score shown after each rally, UNI first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).