Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026 · Neutral site

TCU def. Dayton 3–1

TCU beat Dayton 3-1 (25-13, 25-13, 21-25, 26-24) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at a neutral site. TCU's Evan Hendrix led with 20 kills.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set1234Sets
DAYTON131325241
TCU252521263

Win probability

TCU above 50 · Dayton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.7% TCUrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.7% to TCU — set 4, DAYTON 24-26 TCU. Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer). TCU win probability 93% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAYTON 15.1%84.9% TCU

Dayton wins

3-0
2.2%
3-1
4.8%
3-2
8.0%

TCU wins

3-0
37.0%
3-1
31.3%
3-2
16.6%
DAYTON break %
36.8% vs this opp
TCU break %
44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Evan HendrixKill+6.7%

    Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 24-26 TCU · TCU 93% → 100%

  2. 02
    Sidney SpradaKill+6.1%

    Kill by Sidney Sprada

    Set 4 · DAYTON 23-23 TCU · DAYTON 6% → 12%

  3. 03
    Becca KelleyKill+5.4%

    Kill by Becca Kelley

    Set 4 · DAYTON 23-24 TCU · TCU 88% → 93%

  4. 04

    Kill by Corrie Anderson (set by Rylee Sloss)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 24-24 TCU · DAYTON 7% → 12%

  5. 05
    Becca KelleyKill+5.4%

    Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 24-25 TCU · TCU 88% → 93%

  6. 06
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.8%

    Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 20-21 TCU · TCU 87% → 91%

  7. 07
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.7%

    Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 20-20 TCU · TCU 82% → 87%

  8. 08
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.1%

    Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 20-22 TCU · TCU 91% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Daytonaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414744.15900010000014
41011.0001811600002
32010.20000050010.52.5
23215.06700000010.53.5
2109.11100000010.51.5
2125-.20000000010.51.5
46315.20000020031.57.5
4001.0001435300003
33112.167111800215
3003.00000100132.52.5
3000–201700000
3000–000000000
25314.143000100005
24111.273000200215
2011-1.000001920000
1000–000100000
Team totals4020141.14235510548114875
TCUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4201054.185101110010.520.5
418537.3510016010119
45414.07133363010.58.5
43011.273330700217
4206.33329101100003
3215.200000002235
4000–1000800000
3000–110500001
3000–5011000000
3000–001710000
23110.20000010010.53.5
23031.00000000010.53.5
2012-.500000100211
21011.000000000001
2001.000000000000
Team totals5722144.2435287735310897

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 DAYTON · TCU 6

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 DAYTONTCU 6

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 DAYTONTCU 6

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 DAYTONTCU 2

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 4 DAYTONTCU 6

Bars above the line = TCU leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Dayton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%5/9
50%4/8
2
38%5/13
38%3/8
3
71%5/7
29%2/7
4
33%3/9
20%1/5
5
75%3/4
25%1/4
6
75%3/4
50%3/6
All
52%24/46
37%14/38

TCU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%5/8
33%2/6
2
83%5/6
44%4/9
3
80%4/5
58%7/12
4
80%4/5
33%2/6
5
50%3/6
63%5/8
6
38%3/8
40%2/5
All
63%24/38
48%22/46

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#DAYTON-TCUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+1.4
21-1TCUDAYTONBlockedEvan Hendrixblk Gabriela Machin Borges, Addi Gallentine+1.0
31-2DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+1.0
41-3TCUTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+1.3
52-3TCUDAYTONKillAddi Gallentineset Rylee Sloss+0.9
62-4DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Jalyn Gibson+0.9
73-4TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.9
83-5DAYTONTCU×4Serve errDayton+0.9
93-6TCUTCU×4Attack errCharlotte Vinson+1.2
103-7TCUTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+1.0
113-8TCUTCU×4KillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+0.8
124-8TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.5
134-9DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+0.5
145-9TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.5
155-10DAYTONTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.6
165-11TCUTCUBad setKamryn Hunt+0.6
176-11TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.4
186-12DAYTONTCUBlockedAddi Gallentineblk De'Andrea McMillian+0.4
197-12TCUDAYTONServe errTCU+0.4
208-12DAYTONDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrix+0.7
218-13DAYTONTCU×5KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.6
228-14TCUTCU×5Attack errGabriela Machin Borges+0.6
238-15TCUTCU×5BlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Kinsley Young, Evan Hendrix+0.4
248-16TCUTCU×5Attack errLily Barry+0.3
258-17TCUTCU×5AceTCUaced Lily Barry+0.1
269-17TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.1
279-18DAYTONTCUServe errDayton+0.1
2810-18TCUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss·
2911-18DAYTONDAYTONAttack errBecca Kelley+0.1
3011-19DAYTONTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+0.1
3111-20TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+0.1
32–3311-22TCU 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
3411-23TCUTCU×6AceTCU·
3511-24TCUTCU×6KillMorgan Hollomanset Reese Wilburn·
3612-24TCUDAYTONServe errTCU·
3713-24DAYTONDAYTONBlockedReese Robinsblk Kamryn Hunt, Abigail Cresse·
3813-25DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn·
Set 2
10-1DAYTONTCUBlockedSidney Spradablk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson+0.7
21-1TCUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+0.7
31-2DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.7
41-3TCUTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+0.9
52-3TCUDAYTONServe errTCU+0.7
62-4DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.6
73-4TCUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.7
84-4DAYTONDAYTONKillAbigail Cresse+1.1
94-5DAYTONTCU×4Serve errDayton+0.8
104-6TCUTCU×4AceTCUaced Lily Barry+1.0
114-7TCUTCU×4Attack errSidney Sprada+0.9
124-8TCUTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.7
135-8TCUDAYTONServe errTCU+0.5
146-8DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.9
156-9DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.6
166-10TCUTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+0.8
177-10TCUDAYTONAttack errBecca Kelley+0.5
188-10DAYTONDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrix+0.9
198-11DAYTONTCUKillKinsley Youngset Reese Wilburn+0.7
209-11TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.7
219-12DAYTONTCU×3Attack errSidney Sprada+0.7
229-13TCUTCU×3AceTCU+0.8
239-14TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+0.6
2410-14TCUDAYTONAttack errBecca Kelley+0.4
2510-15DAYTONTCU×6KillDe'Andrea McMillianset Rosemary Archer+0.4
2610-16TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Molly McCarthy+0.4
2710-17TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+0.3
2810-18TCUTCU×6KillDe'Andrea McMillianset Rosemary Archer+0.2
2910-19TCUTCU×6Attack errAddi Gallentine+0.1
3010-20TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Jalyn Gibson·
3111-20TCUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss·
3212-20DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss·
3312-21DAYTONTCUKillMia Leeset Rosemary Archer·
3412-22TCUTCUKillMorgan Hollomanset Rosemary Archer·
3513-22TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss·
3613-23DAYTONTCU×3Serve errDayton·
3713-24TCUTCU×3KillRosemary Archerset Rosemary Archer·
3813-25TCUTCU×3KillMorgan Hollomanset Rosemary Archer·
Set 3
10-1TCUTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.5
21-1TCUDAYTONKillIsabel Simmonsset Rylee Sloss+0.4
32-1DAYTONDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrix+0.6
42-2DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.4
52-3TCUTCUAttack errSidney Sprada+0.5
63-3TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.4
73-4DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+0.4
83-5TCUTCUAttack errCorrie Anderson+0.5
94-5TCUDAYTONBlockedEvan Hendrixblk Ava Liening+0.3
104-6DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+0.3
115-6TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.3
125-7DAYTONTCUKillReese Robinsset Reese Wilburn+0.3
136-7TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.4
146-8DAYTONTCUServe errDayton+0.3
157-8TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.4
168-8DAYTONDAYTONBlockedJalyn Gibsonblk Isabel Simmons, Kaleigh Meritt+0.6
178-9DAYTONTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.4
188-10TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.6
199-10TCUDAYTON×3Attack errEvan Hendrix+0.4
2010-10DAYTONDAYTON×3AceDaytonaced Jalyn Gibson+0.7
2111-10DAYTONDAYTON×3KillIsabel Simmonsset Rylee Sloss+0.8
2211-11DAYTONTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+0.5
2312-11TCUDAYTONServe errTCU+0.6
2412-12DAYTONTCUAttack errKaleigh Meritt+0.5
2513-12TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+0.6
2613-13DAYTONTCUKillReese Robinsset Reese Wilburn+0.5
2713-14TCUTCUAceTCU+0.8
2814-14TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.6
2914-15DAYTONTCUBlockedCharlotte Vinsonblk Becca Kelley+0.5
3015-15TCUDAYTON×3KillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.6
3116-15DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+1.0
3217-15DAYTONDAYTON×3KillIsabel Simmons+1.1
3317-16DAYTONTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.6
3417-17TCUTCUAceTCU+1.0
3518-17TCUDAYTON×4KillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.8
3619-17DAYTONDAYTON×4BlockedJalyn Gibsonblk Kaleigh Meritt, Isabel Simmons+1.2
3720-17DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errEvan Hendrix+1.2
3821-17DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDayton+1.0
3921-18DAYTONTCUServe errDayton+0.4
4022-18TCUDAYTONKillRylee Slossset Kaleigh Meritt+0.7
4122-19DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.4
4222-20TCUTCUAceTCU+0.8
4323-20TCUDAYTONServe errTCU+1.0
4424-20DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Morgan Asleson+0.9
4524-21DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrix+0.2
4625-21TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.4
Set 4
11-0DAYTONDAYTONAttack errLauren Murphy+2.0
21-1DAYTONTCU×3Serve errDayton+1.3
31-2TCUTCU×3Attack errSidney Sprada+1.8
41-3TCUTCU×3Attack errIsabel Simmons+1.7
52-3DAYTON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.2
63-3DAYTONDAYTONAttack errDe'Andrea McMillian+1.9
73-4DAYTONTCUAttack errEvan Hendrix+1.3
84-4TCUDAYTON×4KillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+1.4
95-4DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Jalyn Gibson+2.3
106-4DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Jalyn Gibson+2.5
117-4DAYTONDAYTON×4Serve errDayton+2.7
127-5DAYTONTCUServe errDayton+1.6
138-5TCUDAYTON×4Attack errSidney Sprada+1.9
149-5DAYTONDAYTON×4BlockedEvan Hendrixblk Charlotte Vinson, Ava Liening+2.8
1510-5DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errEvan Hendrix+2.7
1611-5DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errJalyn Gibson+2.5
1711-6DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+1.2
1812-6DAYTON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
1912-7DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Jalyn Gibson+1.2
2013-7TCUDAYTONServe errTCU+1.8
2114-7DAYTONDAYTONServe errDayton+2.1
22–2315-8DAYTON · TCU
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
2415-9DAYTONTCU×6BlockedSidney Spradablk Lauren Murphy, Kinsley Young+0.9
2515-10TCU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
2615-11TCUTCU×6Serve errTCU+2.1
2715-12TCUTCU×6AceTCU+2.6
2815-13TCUTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Kinsley Young+2.9
2915-14TCUTCU×6Bad setSidney Sprada+3.2
3016-14TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+2.6
3116-15DAYTONTCUServe errDayton+2.2
3217-15TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Anderson+2.8
3318-15DAYTONDAYTONAceDaytonaced Jaylen Clark+4.0
3418-16DAYTONTCUServe errDayton+2.1
3519-16TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinson+3.0
3619-17DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrix+2.1
3719-18TCU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.9
3820-18TCUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+3.4
3920-19DAYTONTCU×4KillJalyn Gibson+2.7
40–4220-22TCU 3
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+13.5
4321-22TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinson+2.3
4421-23DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+3.1
4522-23TCUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+2.3
4623-23DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Sprada+6.1
4723-24DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelley+5.4
4824-24TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+5.4
4924-25DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+5.4
5024-26TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+6.7

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).