TCU def. Dayton 3–1
TCU beat Dayton 3-1 (25-13, 25-13, 21-25, 26-24) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at a neutral site. TCU's Evan Hendrix led with 20 kills.
Data through · final Sep 12
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAYTON | 13 | 13 | 25 | 24 | 1 |
| TCU | 25 | 25 | 21 | 26 | 3 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 6.7% to TCU — set 4, DAYTON 24-26 TCU. Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer). TCU win probability 93% → 100%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Dayton wins
TCU wins
- DAYTON break %
- 36.8% vs this opp
- TCU break %
- 44.7% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Evan HendrixKill+6.7%
Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer)
Set 4 · DAYTON 24-26 TCU · TCU 93% → 100%
- 02
- 03
- 04Corrie AndersonKill+5.4%
Kill by Corrie Anderson (set by Rylee Sloss)
Set 4 · DAYTON 24-24 TCU · DAYTON 7% → 12%
- 05Becca KelleyKill+5.4%
Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)
Set 4 · DAYTON 24-25 TCU · TCU 88% → 93%
- 06Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.8%
Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 4 · DAYTON 20-21 TCU · TCU 87% → 91%
- 07Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.7%
Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 4 · DAYTON 20-20 TCU · TCU 82% → 87%
- 08Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.1%
Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 4 · DAYTON 20-22 TCU · TCU 91% → 95%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 14 | 7 | 44 | .159 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | .067 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | .111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -.200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 3 | 15 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 7.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | .167 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | .273 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 40 | 20 | 141 | .142 | 35 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 75 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 20 | 10 | 54 | .185 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 20.5 | |
| 4 | 18 | 5 | 37 | .351 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 | .071 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | .273 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | .333 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 57 | 22 | 144 | .243 | 52 | 8 | 7 | 73 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 97 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
13-25
Set 2
13-25
Set 3
25-21
Set 4
24-26
Bars above the line = TCU leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Dayton
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56%5/9 | 50%4/8 |
| 2 | 38%5/13 | 38%3/8 |
| 3 | 71%5/7 | 29%2/7 |
| 4 | 33%3/9 | 20%1/5 |
| 5 | 75%3/4 | 25%1/4 |
| 6 | 75%3/4 | 50%3/6 |
| All | 52%24/46 | 37%14/38 |
TCU
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63%5/8 | 33%2/6 |
| 2 | 83%5/6 | 44%4/9 |
| 3 | 80%4/5 | 58%7/12 |
| 4 | 80%4/5 | 33%2/6 |
| 5 | 50%3/6 | 63%5/8 |
| 6 | 38%3/8 | 40%2/5 |
| All | 63%24/38 | 48%22/46 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
172 rallies
| # | DAYTON-TCU | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +1.4 |
| 2 | 1-1 | TCU | DAYTON | Blocked | Evan Hendrix | blk Gabriela Machin Borges, Addi Gallentine | +1.0 |
| 3 | 1-2 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +1.0 |
| 4 | 1-3 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +1.3 |
| 5 | 2-3 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Addi Gallentine | set Rylee Sloss | +0.9 |
| 6 | 2-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Jalyn Gibson | +0.9 |
| 7 | 3-4 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.9 |
| 8 | 3-5 | DAYTON | TCU×4 | Serve err | Dayton | +0.9 | |
| 9 | 3-6 | TCU | TCU×4 | Attack err | Charlotte Vinson | +1.2 | |
| 10 | 3-7 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +1.0 |
| 11 | 3-8 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | +0.8 |
| 12 | 4-8 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.5 |
| 13 | 4-9 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +0.5 |
| 14 | 5-9 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.5 |
| 15 | 5-10 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.6 |
| 16 | 5-11 | TCU | TCU | Bad set | Kamryn Hunt | +0.6 | |
| 17 | 6-11 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.4 |
| 18 | 6-12 | DAYTON | TCU | Blocked | Addi Gallentine | blk De'Andrea McMillian | +0.4 |
| 19 | 7-12 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU | +0.4 | |
| 20 | 8-12 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.7 | |
| 21 | 8-13 | DAYTON | TCU×5 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.6 |
| 22 | 8-14 | TCU | TCU×5 | Attack err | Gabriela Machin Borges | +0.6 | |
| 23 | 8-15 | TCU | TCU×5 | Blocked | Gabriela Machin Borges | blk Kinsley Young, Evan Hendrix | +0.4 |
| 24 | 8-16 | TCU | TCU×5 | Attack err | Lily Barry | +0.3 | |
| 25 | 8-17 | TCU | TCU×5 | Ace | TCU | aced Lily Barry | +0.1 |
| 26 | 9-17 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.1 |
| 27 | 9-18 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | Dayton | +0.1 | |
| 28 | 10-18 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Gabriela Machin Borges | set Rylee Sloss | · |
| 29 | 11-18 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.1 | |
| 30 | 11-19 | DAYTON | TCU×6 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +0.1 |
| 31 | 11-20 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | +0.1 |
| 32–33 | 11-22 | TCU 2 | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | · | |||
| 34 | 11-23 | TCU | TCU×6 | Ace | TCU | · | |
| 35 | 11-24 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Morgan Holloman | set Reese Wilburn | · |
| 36 | 12-24 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU | · | |
| 37 | 13-24 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Blocked | Reese Robins | blk Kamryn Hunt, Abigail Cresse | · |
| 38 | 13-25 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | · |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | DAYTON | TCU | Blocked | Sidney Sprada | blk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson | +0.7 |
| 2 | 1-1 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Kamryn Hunt | set Rylee Sloss | +0.7 |
| 3 | 1-2 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 4 | 1-3 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Alice Volpe | +0.9 |
| 5 | 2-3 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU | +0.7 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.6 |
| 7 | 3-4 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Gabriela Machin Borges | set Rylee Sloss | +0.7 |
| 8 | 4-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Abigail Cresse | +1.1 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | DAYTON | TCU×4 | Serve err | Dayton | +0.8 | |
| 10 | 4-6 | TCU | TCU×4 | Ace | TCU | aced Lily Barry | +1.0 |
| 11 | 4-7 | TCU | TCU×4 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +0.9 | |
| 12 | 4-8 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 13 | 5-8 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU | +0.5 | |
| 14 | 6-8 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Kamryn Hunt | set Natalie Harrington | +0.9 |
| 15 | 6-9 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.6 |
| 16 | 6-10 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Alice Volpe | +0.8 |
| 17 | 7-10 | TCU | DAYTON | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.5 | |
| 18 | 8-10 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.9 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Reese Wilburn | +0.7 |
| 20 | 9-11 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.7 |
| 21 | 9-12 | DAYTON | TCU×3 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +0.7 | |
| 22 | 9-13 | TCU | TCU×3 | Ace | TCU | +0.8 | |
| 23 | 9-14 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Alice Volpe | +0.6 |
| 24 | 10-14 | TCU | DAYTON | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.4 | |
| 25 | 10-15 | DAYTON | TCU×6 | Kill | De'Andrea McMillian | set Rosemary Archer | +0.4 |
| 26 | 10-16 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Molly McCarthy | +0.4 |
| 27 | 10-17 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Alice Volpe | +0.3 |
| 28 | 10-18 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | De'Andrea McMillian | set Rosemary Archer | +0.2 |
| 29 | 10-19 | TCU | TCU×6 | Attack err | Addi Gallentine | +0.1 | |
| 30 | 10-20 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Jalyn Gibson | · |
| 31 | 11-20 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Gabriela Machin Borges | set Rylee Sloss | · |
| 32 | 12-20 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | · |
| 33 | 12-21 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Mia Lee | set Rosemary Archer | · |
| 34 | 12-22 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Morgan Holloman | set Rosemary Archer | · |
| 35 | 13-22 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | · |
| 36 | 13-23 | DAYTON | TCU×3 | Serve err | Dayton | · | |
| 37 | 13-24 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Rosemary Archer | set Rosemary Archer | · |
| 38 | 13-25 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Morgan Holloman | set Rosemary Archer | · |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.5 |
| 2 | 1-1 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Isabel Simmons | set Rylee Sloss | +0.4 |
| 3 | 2-1 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.6 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.4 |
| 5 | 2-3 | TCU | TCU | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +0.5 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.4 |
| 7 | 3-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Alice Volpe | +0.4 |
| 8 | 3-5 | TCU | TCU | Attack err | Corrie Anderson | +0.5 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | TCU | DAYTON | Blocked | Evan Hendrix | blk Ava Liening | +0.3 |
| 10 | 4-6 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +0.3 |
| 11 | 5-6 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.3 |
| 12 | 5-7 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Reese Robins | set Reese Wilburn | +0.3 |
| 13 | 6-7 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.4 |
| 14 | 6-8 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | Dayton | +0.3 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.4 |
| 16 | 8-8 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Blocked | Jalyn Gibson | blk Isabel Simmons, Kaleigh Meritt | +0.6 |
| 17 | 8-9 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.4 |
| 18 | 8-10 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.6 |
| 19 | 9-10 | TCU | DAYTON×3 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.4 | |
| 20 | 10-10 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Ace | Dayton | aced Jalyn Gibson | +0.7 |
| 21 | 11-10 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Isabel Simmons | set Rylee Sloss | +0.8 |
| 22 | 11-11 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.5 |
| 23 | 12-11 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU | +0.6 | |
| 24 | 12-12 | DAYTON | TCU | Attack err | Kaleigh Meritt | +0.5 | |
| 25 | 13-12 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +0.6 |
| 26 | 13-13 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Reese Robins | set Reese Wilburn | +0.5 |
| 27 | 13-14 | TCU | TCU | Ace | TCU | +0.8 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.6 |
| 29 | 14-15 | DAYTON | TCU | Blocked | Charlotte Vinson | blk Becca Kelley | +0.5 |
| 30 | 15-15 | TCU | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.6 |
| 31 | 16-15 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Kaleigh Meritt | set Natalie Harrington | +1.0 |
| 32 | 17-15 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Isabel Simmons | +1.1 | |
| 33 | 17-16 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.6 |
| 34 | 17-17 | TCU | TCU | Ace | TCU | +1.0 | |
| 35 | 18-17 | TCU | DAYTON×4 | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.8 |
| 36 | 19-17 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Blocked | Jalyn Gibson | blk Kaleigh Meritt, Isabel Simmons | +1.2 |
| 37 | 20-17 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +1.2 | |
| 38 | 21-17 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Ace | Dayton | +1.0 | |
| 39 | 21-18 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | Dayton | +0.4 | |
| 40 | 22-18 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Rylee Sloss | set Kaleigh Meritt | +0.7 |
| 41 | 22-19 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.4 |
| 42 | 22-20 | TCU | TCU | Ace | TCU | +0.8 | |
| 43 | 23-20 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU | +1.0 | |
| 44 | 24-20 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Morgan Asleson | +0.9 |
| 45 | 24-21 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | +0.2 | |
| 46 | 25-21 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.4 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Lauren Murphy | +2.0 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | DAYTON | TCU×3 | Serve err | Dayton | +1.3 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | TCU | TCU×3 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +1.8 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | TCU | TCU×3 | Attack err | Isabel Simmons | +1.7 | |
| 5 | 2-3 | DAYTON | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.2 | |||
| 6 | 3-3 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | De'Andrea McMillian | +1.9 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +1.3 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | TCU | DAYTON×4 | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +1.4 |
| 9 | 5-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Ace | Dayton | aced Jalyn Gibson | +2.3 |
| 10 | 6-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Ace | Dayton | aced Jalyn Gibson | +2.5 |
| 11 | 7-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Serve err | Dayton | +2.7 | |
| 12 | 7-5 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | Dayton | +1.6 | |
| 13 | 8-5 | TCU | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +1.9 | |
| 14 | 9-5 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Blocked | Evan Hendrix | blk Charlotte Vinson, Ava Liening | +2.8 |
| 15 | 10-5 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +2.7 | |
| 16 | 11-5 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Jalyn Gibson | +2.5 | |
| 17 | 11-6 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +1.2 |
| 18 | 12-6 | DAYTON | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.7 | |||
| 19 | 12-7 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Jalyn Gibson | +1.2 |
| 20 | 13-7 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU | +1.8 | |
| 21 | 14-7 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Serve err | Dayton | +2.1 | |
| 22–23 | 15-8 | DAYTON · TCU | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.5 | |||
| 24 | 15-9 | DAYTON | TCU×6 | Blocked | Sidney Sprada | blk Lauren Murphy, Kinsley Young | +0.9 |
| 25 | 15-10 | TCU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.7 | |||
| 26 | 15-11 | TCU | TCU×6 | Serve err | TCU | +2.1 | |
| 27 | 15-12 | TCU | TCU×6 | Ace | TCU | +2.6 | |
| 28 | 15-13 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Kinsley Young | +2.9 |
| 29 | 15-14 | TCU | TCU×6 | Bad set | Sidney Sprada | +3.2 | |
| 30 | 16-14 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +2.6 |
| 31 | 16-15 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | Dayton | +2.2 | |
| 32 | 17-15 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | +2.8 | |
| 33 | 18-15 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Ace | Dayton | aced Jaylen Clark | +4.0 |
| 34 | 18-16 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | Dayton | +2.1 | |
| 35 | 19-16 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | +3.0 | |
| 36 | 19-17 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | +2.1 | |
| 37 | 19-18 | TCU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +3.9 | |||
| 38 | 20-18 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Kaleigh Meritt | set Natalie Harrington | +3.4 |
| 39 | 20-19 | DAYTON | TCU×4 | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | +2.7 | |
| 40–42 | 20-22 | TCU 3 | NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +13.5 | |||
| 43 | 21-22 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | +2.3 | |
| 44 | 21-23 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +3.1 |
| 45 | 22-23 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Kaleigh Meritt | set Rylee Sloss | +2.3 |
| 46 | 23-23 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | +6.1 | |
| 47 | 23-24 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | +5.4 | |
| 48 | 24-24 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +5.4 |
| 49 | 24-25 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +5.4 |
| 50 | 24-26 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +6.7 |
Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).