CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026
Dayton logo

AwayATLANTIC-10

1:3
TCU logo

HomeBIG-12

TCU def. Dayton 31

(25-13, 25-13, 21-25, 26-24)
Set1*234*Sets
DAYTON131325241
TCU252521263
  • * Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
  • * Set 4: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TCU above 50 · DAYTON below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100TCUDAYTONBiggest swing +4.6% TCU · S4 24-26rally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.6% to TCU — set 4, DAYTON 24-26 TCU. Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer). TCU win probability 95%100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DAYTON 6.8%93.2% TCU

Dayton wins

3-0
0.8%
3-1
2.0%
3-2
4.0%

TCU wins

3-0
50.8%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
11.6%
DAYTON break %
36.1% vs this opp
TCU break %
47.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Evan HendrixKill+4.6%

    Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 24-26 TCU · TCU 95%100%

  2. 02
    Sidney SpradaKill+4.5%

    Kill by Sidney Sprada

    Set 4 · DAYTON 23-23 TCU · DAYTON 4%9%

  3. 03
    Becca KelleyKill+4.1%

    Kill by Becca Kelley

    Set 4 · DAYTON 23-24 TCU · TCU 91%95%

  4. 04

    Kill by Corrie Anderson (set by Rylee Sloss)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 24-24 TCU · DAYTON 5%9%

  5. 05
    Becca KelleyKill+4.1%

    Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 24-25 TCU · TCU 91%95%

  6. 06
    Unlogged pointFeed gap+3.5%

    Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 20-20 TCU · TCU 87%91%

  7. 07
    Unlogged pointFeed gap+3.4%

    Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · DAYTON 20-21 TCU · TCU 91%94%

  8. 08
    DAYTON serverAce+3.3%

    Dayton ace on Jaylen Clark

    Set 4 · DAYTON 18-15 TCU · DAYTON 13%16%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Daytonaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414744.15900010000014
41011.0001811600002
32010.20000050010.52.5
23215.06700000010.53.5
2109.11100000010.51.5
2125-.20000000010.51.5
46315.20000020031.57.5
4001.0001435300003
33112.167111800215
3003.00000100132.52.5
3000201700000
3000000000000
25314.143000100005
24111.273000200215
2011-1.000001920000
1000000100000
Team totals4020141.14235510548114875
TCUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4201054.185101110010.520.5
418537.3510016010119
45414.07133363010.58.5
43011.273330700217
4206.33329101100003
3215.200000002235
40001000800000
3000110500001
30005011000000
3000001710000
23110.20000010010.53.5
23031.00000000010.53.5
2012-.500000100211
21011.000000000001
2001.000000000000
Team totals5722144.2435287735310897

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 DAYTON · TCU 6

Set 1*

13-25

Longest run 2 DAYTONTCU 6

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 DAYTONTCU 6

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 DAYTONTCU 2

Set 4*

24-26

Longest run 4 DAYTONTCU 6

Bars above the line = TCU leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Dayton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%5/9
50%4/8
2
38%5/13
38%3/8
3
71%5/7
29%2/7
4
33%3/9
20%1/5
5
75%3/4
25%1/4
6
75%3/4
50%3/6
All
52%24/46
37%14/38

TCU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%5/8
33%2/6
2
83%5/6
44%4/9
3
80%4/5
58%7/12
4
80%4/5
33%2/6
5
50%3/6
63%5/8
6
38%3/8
40%2/5
All
63%24/38
48%22/46

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

172 rallies

Rally log

#DAYTON-TCUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.7
21-1TCUDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrixblk Gabriela Machin Borges, Addi Gallentine+0.6
31-2DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.5
41-3TCUTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+0.7
52-3TCUDAYTONKillAddi Gallentineset Rylee Sloss+0.5
62-4DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Jalyn Gibson+0.5
73-4TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.5
83-5DAYTONTCU×4Serve errDAYTON server+0.5
93-6TCUTCU×4Attack errCharlotte Vinson+0.6
103-7TCUTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+0.5
113-8TCUTCU×4KillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+0.4
124-8TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.3
134-9DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+0.3
145-9TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.3
155-10DAYTONTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.3
165-11TCUTCUBad setKamryn Hunt+0.3
176-11TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.2
186-12DAYTONTCUAttack errAddi Gallentineblk De'Andrea McMillian+0.2
197-12TCUDAYTONServe errTCU server+0.2
208-12DAYTONDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrix+0.4
218-13DAYTONTCU×5KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.3
228-14TCUTCU×5Attack errGabriela Machin Borges+0.3
238-15TCUTCU×5Attack errGabriela Machin Borgesblk Kinsley Young, Evan Hendrix+0.2
248-16TCUTCU×5Attack errLily Barry+0.1
258-17TCUTCU×5AceTCU serveraced Lily Barry+0.1
269-17TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.0
279-18DAYTONTCUServe errDAYTON server+0.0
2810-18TCUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.0
2911-18DAYTONDAYTONAttack errBecca Kelley+0.1
3011-19DAYTONTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+0.1
3111-20TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+0.0
3211-21TCUTCU×6Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+0.0
3311-22TCUTCU×6Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+0.0
3411-23TCUTCU×6AceTCU serveraced Team+0.0
3511-24TCUTCU×6KillMorgan Hollomanset Reese Wilburn+0.0
3612-24TCUDAYTONServe errTCU server+0.0
3713-24DAYTONDAYTONAttack errReese Robinsblk Kamryn Hunt, Abigail Cresse+0.0
3813-25DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+0.0
Set 2
10-1DAYTONTCUAttack errSidney Spradablk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson+0.3
21-1TCUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+0.4
31-2DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.3
41-3TCUTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+0.4
52-3TCUDAYTONServe errTCU server+0.3
62-4DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.3
73-4TCUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.3
84-4DAYTONDAYTONKillAbigail Cresse+0.6
94-5DAYTONTCU×4Serve errDAYTON server+0.4
104-6TCUTCU×4AceTCU serveraced Lily Barry+0.5
114-7TCUTCU×4Attack errSidney Sprada+0.4
124-8TCUTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.3
135-8TCUDAYTONServe errTCU server+0.2
146-8DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.4
156-9DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.3
166-10TCUTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+0.4
177-10TCUDAYTONAttack errBecca Kelley+0.2
188-10DAYTONDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrix+0.4
198-11DAYTONTCUKillKinsley Youngset Reese Wilburn+0.3
209-11TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.3
219-12DAYTONTCU×3Attack errSidney Sprada+0.3
229-13TCUTCU×3AceTCU serveraced Team+0.4
239-14TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+0.3
2410-14TCUDAYTONAttack errBecca Kelley+0.2
2510-15DAYTONTCU×6KillDe'Andrea McMillianset Rosemary Archer+0.2
2610-16TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Molly McCarthy+0.2
2710-17TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+0.1
2810-18TCUTCU×6KillDe'Andrea McMillianset Rosemary Archer+0.1
2910-19TCUTCU×6Attack errAddi Gallentine+0.0
3010-20TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Jalyn Gibson+0.0
3111-20TCUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.0
3212-20DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.0
3312-21DAYTONTCUKillMia Leeset Rosemary Archer+0.0
3412-22TCUTCUKillMorgan Hollomanset Rosemary Archer+0.0
3513-22TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.0
3613-23DAYTONTCU×3Serve errDAYTON server+0.0
3713-24TCUTCU×3KillRosemary Archerset Rosemary Archer+0.0
3813-25TCUTCU×3KillMorgan Hollomanset Rosemary Archer+0.0
Set 3
10-1TCUTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.2
21-1TCUDAYTONKillIsabel Simmonsset Rylee Sloss+0.2
32-1DAYTONDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrix+0.3
42-2DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.2
52-3TCUTCUAttack errSidney Sprada+0.2
63-3TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.2
73-4DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+0.2
83-5TCUTCUAttack errCorrie Anderson+0.2
94-5TCUDAYTONAttack errEvan Hendrixblk Ava Liening+0.2
104-6DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+0.2
115-6TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.2
125-7DAYTONTCUKillReese Robinsset Reese Wilburn+0.2
136-7TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.2
146-8DAYTONTCUServe errDAYTON server+0.2
157-8TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.2
168-8DAYTONDAYTONAttack errJalyn Gibsonblk Isabel Simmons, Kaleigh Meritt+0.3
178-9DAYTONTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.2
188-10TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.3
199-10TCUDAYTON×3Attack errEvan Hendrix+0.2
2010-10DAYTONDAYTON×3AceDAYTON serveraced Jalyn Gibson+0.3
2111-10DAYTONDAYTON×3KillIsabel Simmonsset Rylee Sloss+0.4
2211-11DAYTONTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+0.3
2312-11TCUDAYTONServe errTCU server+0.3
2412-12DAYTONTCUAttack errKaleigh Meritt+0.3
2513-12TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+0.3
2613-13DAYTONTCUKillReese Robinsset Reese Wilburn+0.3
2713-14TCUTCUAceTCU serveraced Team+0.4
2814-14TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.3
2914-15DAYTONTCUAttack errCharlotte Vinsonblk Becca Kelley+0.3
3015-15TCUDAYTON×3KillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.3
3116-15DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+0.5
3217-15DAYTONDAYTON×3KillIsabel Simmons+0.6
3317-16DAYTONTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.4
3417-17TCUTCUAceTCU serveraced Team+0.5
3518-17TCUDAYTON×4KillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.4
3619-17DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errJalyn Gibsonblk Kaleigh Meritt, Isabel Simmons+0.7
3720-17DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errEvan Hendrix+0.7
3821-17DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDAYTON serveraced Team+0.6
3921-18DAYTONTCUServe errDAYTON server+0.3
4022-18TCUDAYTONKillRylee Slossset Kaleigh Meritt+0.5
4122-19DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.2
4222-20TCUTCUAceTCU serveraced Team+0.5
4323-20TCUDAYTONServe errTCU server+0.6
4424-20DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Morgan Asleson+0.6
4524-21DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrix+0.1
4625-21TCUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.3
Set 4
11-0DAYTONDAYTONAttack errLauren Murphy+1.4
21-1DAYTONTCU×3Serve errDAYTON server+0.9
31-2TCUTCU×3Attack errSidney Sprada+1.2
41-3TCUTCU×3Attack errIsabel Simmons+1.0
52-3TCUDAYTONFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+0.8
63-3DAYTONDAYTONAttack errDe'Andrea McMillian+1.3
73-4DAYTONTCUAttack errEvan Hendrix+0.9
84-4TCUDAYTON×4KillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+1.0
95-4DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDAYTON serveraced Jalyn Gibson+1.6
106-4DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDAYTON serveraced Jalyn Gibson+1.8
117-4DAYTONDAYTON×4Serve errDAYTON server+2.0
127-5DAYTONTCUServe errDAYTON server+1.2
138-5TCUDAYTON×4Attack errSidney Sprada+1.5
149-5DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errEvan Hendrixblk Charlotte Vinson, Ava Liening+2.2
1510-5DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errEvan Hendrix+2.2
1611-5DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errJalyn Gibson+2.2
1711-6DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+1.1
1812-6TCUDAYTONFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+1.6
1912-7DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Jalyn Gibson+1.1
2013-7TCUDAYTONServe errTCU server+1.7
2114-7DAYTONDAYTONServe errDAYTON server+2.0
2214-8DAYTONTCUFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+0.9
2315-8TCUDAYTONFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+1.4
2415-9DAYTONTCU×6Attack errSidney Spradablk Lauren Murphy, Kinsley Young+0.9
2515-10TCUTCU×6Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+1.6
2615-11TCUTCU×6Serve errTCU server+1.9
2715-12TCUTCU×6AceTCU serveraced Team+2.1
2815-13TCUTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Kinsley Young+2.3
2915-14TCUTCU×6Bad setSidney Sprada+2.4
3016-14TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+2.1
3116-15DAYTONTCUServe errDAYTON server+1.7
3217-15TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Anderson+2.3
3318-15DAYTONDAYTONAceDAYTON serveraced Jaylen Clark+3.3
3418-16DAYTONTCUServe errDAYTON server+1.8
3519-16TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinson+2.6
3619-17DAYTONTCUKillEvan Hendrix+1.8
3719-18TCUTCUFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+3.0
3820-18TCUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+2.9
3920-19DAYTONTCU×4KillJalyn Gibson+2.2
4020-20TCUTCU×4Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+3.5
4120-21TCUTCU×4Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+3.4
4220-22TCUTCU×4Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+2.9
4321-22TCUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinson+1.7
4421-23DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.2
4522-23TCUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.7
4623-23DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Sprada+4.5
4723-24DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelley+4.1
4824-24TCUDAYTONKillCorrie Andersonset Rylee Sloss+4.1
4924-25DAYTONTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+4.1
5024-26TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+4.6

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.