TCU def. Dayton 3–1
(25-13, 25-13, 21-25, 26-24)| Set | 1* | 2 | 3 | 4* | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAYTON | 13 | 13 | 25 | 24 | 1 |
| TCU | 25 | 25 | 21 | 26 | 3 |
- * Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
- * Set 4: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 4.6% to TCU — set 4, DAYTON 24-26 TCU. Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer). TCU win probability 95% → 100%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Dayton wins
TCU wins
- DAYTON break %
- 36.1% vs this opp
- TCU break %
- 47.5% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01Evan HendrixKill+4.6%
Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer)
Set 4 · DAYTON 24-26 TCU · TCU 95% → 100%
- 02
- 03
- 04Corrie AndersonKill+4.1%
Kill by Corrie Anderson (set by Rylee Sloss)
Set 4 · DAYTON 24-24 TCU · DAYTON 5% → 9%
- 05Becca KelleyKill+4.1%
Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)
Set 4 · DAYTON 24-25 TCU · TCU 91% → 95%
- 06Unlogged pointFeed gap+3.5%
Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 4 · DAYTON 20-20 TCU · TCU 87% → 91%
- 07Unlogged pointFeed gap+3.4%
Point TCU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 4 · DAYTON 20-21 TCU · TCU 91% → 94%
- 08DAYTON serverAce+3.3%
Dayton ace on Jaylen Clark
Set 4 · DAYTON 18-15 TCU · DAYTON 13% → 16%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 14 | 7 | 44 | .159 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | .067 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | .111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -.200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 3 | 15 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 7.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | .167 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | .273 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 40 | 20 | 141 | .142 | 35 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 75 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 20 | 10 | 54 | .185 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 20.5 | |
| 4 | 18 | 5 | 37 | .351 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 | .071 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | .273 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | .333 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 57 | 22 | 144 | .243 | 52 | 8 | 7 | 73 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 97 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1*
13-25
Set 2
13-25
Set 3
25-21
Set 4*
24-26
Bars above the line = TCU leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Dayton
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56%5/9 | 50%4/8 |
| 2 | 38%5/13 | 38%3/8 |
| 3 | 71%5/7 | 29%2/7 |
| 4 | 33%3/9 | 20%1/5 |
| 5 | 75%3/4 | 25%1/4 |
| 6 | 75%3/4 | 50%3/6 |
| All | 52%24/46 | 37%14/38 |
TCU
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63%5/8 | 33%2/6 |
| 2 | 83%5/6 | 44%4/9 |
| 3 | 80%4/5 | 58%7/12 |
| 4 | 80%4/5 | 33%2/6 |
| 5 | 50%3/6 | 63%5/8 |
| 6 | 38%3/8 | 40%2/5 |
| All | 63%24/38 | 48%22/46 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
172 rallies
Rally log
| # | DAYTON-TCU | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 2 | 1-1 | TCU | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | blk Gabriela Machin Borges, Addi Gallentine | +0.6 |
| 3 | 1-2 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.5 |
| 4 | 1-3 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 5 | 2-3 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Addi Gallentine | set Rylee Sloss | +0.5 |
| 6 | 2-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Jalyn Gibson | +0.5 |
| 7 | 3-4 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.5 |
| 8 | 3-5 | DAYTON | TCU×4 | Serve err | DAYTON server | +0.5 | |
| 9 | 3-6 | TCU | TCU×4 | Attack err | Charlotte Vinson | +0.6 | |
| 10 | 3-7 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +0.5 |
| 11 | 3-8 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | +0.4 |
| 12 | 4-8 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.3 |
| 13 | 4-9 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +0.3 |
| 14 | 5-9 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.3 |
| 15 | 5-10 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 16 | 5-11 | TCU | TCU | Bad set | Kamryn Hunt | +0.3 | |
| 17 | 6-11 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.2 |
| 18 | 6-12 | DAYTON | TCU | Attack err | Addi Gallentine | blk De'Andrea McMillian | +0.2 |
| 19 | 7-12 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU server | +0.2 | |
| 20 | 8-12 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.4 | |
| 21 | 8-13 | DAYTON | TCU×5 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 22 | 8-14 | TCU | TCU×5 | Attack err | Gabriela Machin Borges | +0.3 | |
| 23 | 8-15 | TCU | TCU×5 | Attack err | Gabriela Machin Borges | blk Kinsley Young, Evan Hendrix | +0.2 |
| 24 | 8-16 | TCU | TCU×5 | Attack err | Lily Barry | +0.1 | |
| 25 | 8-17 | TCU | TCU×5 | Ace | TCU server | aced Lily Barry | +0.1 |
| 26 | 9-17 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.0 |
| 27 | 9-18 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | DAYTON server | +0.0 | |
| 28 | 10-18 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Gabriela Machin Borges | set Rylee Sloss | +0.0 |
| 29 | 11-18 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.1 | |
| 30 | 11-19 | DAYTON | TCU×6 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +0.1 |
| 31 | 11-20 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | +0.0 |
| 32 | 11-21 | TCU | TCU×6 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +0.0 | |
| 33 | 11-22 | TCU | TCU×6 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +0.0 | |
| 34 | 11-23 | TCU | TCU×6 | Ace | TCU server | aced Team | +0.0 |
| 35 | 11-24 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Morgan Holloman | set Reese Wilburn | +0.0 |
| 36 | 12-24 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU server | +0.0 | |
| 37 | 13-24 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Reese Robins | blk Kamryn Hunt, Abigail Cresse | +0.0 |
| 38 | 13-25 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | +0.0 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | DAYTON | TCU | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | blk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson | +0.3 |
| 2 | 1-1 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Kamryn Hunt | set Rylee Sloss | +0.4 |
| 3 | 1-2 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 4 | 1-3 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Alice Volpe | +0.4 |
| 5 | 2-3 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU server | +0.3 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 7 | 3-4 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Gabriela Machin Borges | set Rylee Sloss | +0.3 |
| 8 | 4-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Abigail Cresse | +0.6 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | DAYTON | TCU×4 | Serve err | DAYTON server | +0.4 | |
| 10 | 4-6 | TCU | TCU×4 | Ace | TCU server | aced Lily Barry | +0.5 |
| 11 | 4-7 | TCU | TCU×4 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +0.4 | |
| 12 | 4-8 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 13 | 5-8 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU server | +0.2 | |
| 14 | 6-8 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Kamryn Hunt | set Natalie Harrington | +0.4 |
| 15 | 6-9 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 16 | 6-10 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Alice Volpe | +0.4 |
| 17 | 7-10 | TCU | DAYTON | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.2 | |
| 18 | 8-10 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.4 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Reese Wilburn | +0.3 |
| 20 | 9-11 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.3 |
| 21 | 9-12 | DAYTON | TCU×3 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +0.3 | |
| 22 | 9-13 | TCU | TCU×3 | Ace | TCU server | aced Team | +0.4 |
| 23 | 9-14 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Alice Volpe | +0.3 |
| 24 | 10-14 | TCU | DAYTON | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.2 | |
| 25 | 10-15 | DAYTON | TCU×6 | Kill | De'Andrea McMillian | set Rosemary Archer | +0.2 |
| 26 | 10-16 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Molly McCarthy | +0.2 |
| 27 | 10-17 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Alice Volpe | +0.1 |
| 28 | 10-18 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | De'Andrea McMillian | set Rosemary Archer | +0.1 |
| 29 | 10-19 | TCU | TCU×6 | Attack err | Addi Gallentine | +0.0 | |
| 30 | 10-20 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Jalyn Gibson | +0.0 |
| 31 | 11-20 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Gabriela Machin Borges | set Rylee Sloss | +0.0 |
| 32 | 12-20 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.0 |
| 33 | 12-21 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Mia Lee | set Rosemary Archer | +0.0 |
| 34 | 12-22 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Morgan Holloman | set Rosemary Archer | +0.0 |
| 35 | 13-22 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.0 |
| 36 | 13-23 | DAYTON | TCU×3 | Serve err | DAYTON server | +0.0 | |
| 37 | 13-24 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Rosemary Archer | set Rosemary Archer | +0.0 |
| 38 | 13-25 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Morgan Holloman | set Rosemary Archer | +0.0 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.2 |
| 2 | 1-1 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Isabel Simmons | set Rylee Sloss | +0.2 |
| 3 | 2-1 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.3 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.2 |
| 5 | 2-3 | TCU | TCU | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +0.2 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.2 |
| 7 | 3-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Alice Volpe | +0.2 |
| 8 | 3-5 | TCU | TCU | Attack err | Corrie Anderson | +0.2 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | TCU | DAYTON | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | blk Ava Liening | +0.2 |
| 10 | 4-6 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Reese Wilburn | +0.2 |
| 11 | 5-6 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.2 |
| 12 | 5-7 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Reese Robins | set Reese Wilburn | +0.2 |
| 13 | 6-7 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | set Natalie Harrington | +0.2 |
| 14 | 6-8 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | DAYTON server | +0.2 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.2 |
| 16 | 8-8 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Jalyn Gibson | blk Isabel Simmons, Kaleigh Meritt | +0.3 |
| 17 | 8-9 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.2 |
| 18 | 8-10 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 19 | 9-10 | TCU | DAYTON×3 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.2 | |
| 20 | 10-10 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Ace | DAYTON server | aced Jalyn Gibson | +0.3 |
| 21 | 11-10 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Isabel Simmons | set Rylee Sloss | +0.4 |
| 22 | 11-11 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 23 | 12-11 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU server | +0.3 | |
| 24 | 12-12 | DAYTON | TCU | Attack err | Kaleigh Meritt | +0.3 | |
| 25 | 13-12 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +0.3 |
| 26 | 13-13 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Reese Robins | set Reese Wilburn | +0.3 |
| 27 | 13-14 | TCU | TCU | Ace | TCU server | aced Team | +0.4 |
| 28 | 14-14 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.3 |
| 29 | 14-15 | DAYTON | TCU | Attack err | Charlotte Vinson | blk Becca Kelley | +0.3 |
| 30 | 15-15 | TCU | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.3 |
| 31 | 16-15 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Kaleigh Meritt | set Natalie Harrington | +0.5 |
| 32 | 17-15 | DAYTON | DAYTON×3 | Kill | Isabel Simmons | +0.6 | |
| 33 | 17-16 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.4 |
| 34 | 17-17 | TCU | TCU | Ace | TCU server | aced Team | +0.5 |
| 35 | 18-17 | TCU | DAYTON×4 | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Natalie Harrington | +0.4 |
| 36 | 19-17 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Jalyn Gibson | blk Kaleigh Meritt, Isabel Simmons | +0.7 |
| 37 | 20-17 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.7 | |
| 38 | 21-17 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Ace | DAYTON server | aced Team | +0.6 |
| 39 | 21-18 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | DAYTON server | +0.3 | |
| 40 | 22-18 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Rylee Sloss | set Kaleigh Meritt | +0.5 |
| 41 | 22-19 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.2 |
| 42 | 22-20 | TCU | TCU | Ace | TCU server | aced Team | +0.5 |
| 43 | 23-20 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU server | +0.6 | |
| 44 | 24-20 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Morgan Asleson | +0.6 |
| 45 | 24-21 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | +0.1 | |
| 46 | 25-21 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | set Rylee Sloss | +0.3 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | Lauren Murphy | +1.4 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | DAYTON | TCU×3 | Serve err | DAYTON server | +0.9 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | TCU | TCU×3 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +1.2 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | TCU | TCU×3 | Attack err | Isabel Simmons | +1.0 | |
| 5 | 2-3 | TCU | DAYTON | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +0.8 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Attack err | De'Andrea McMillian | +1.3 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | DAYTON | TCU | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +0.9 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | TCU | DAYTON×4 | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +1.0 |
| 9 | 5-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Ace | DAYTON server | aced Jalyn Gibson | +1.6 |
| 10 | 6-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Ace | DAYTON server | aced Jalyn Gibson | +1.8 |
| 11 | 7-4 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Serve err | DAYTON server | +2.0 | |
| 12 | 7-5 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | DAYTON server | +1.2 | |
| 13 | 8-5 | TCU | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | +1.5 | |
| 14 | 9-5 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | blk Charlotte Vinson, Ava Liening | +2.2 |
| 15 | 10-5 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +2.2 | |
| 16 | 11-5 | DAYTON | DAYTON×4 | Attack err | Jalyn Gibson | +2.2 | |
| 17 | 11-6 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +1.1 |
| 18 | 12-6 | TCU | DAYTON | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +1.6 | |
| 19 | 12-7 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Jalyn Gibson | +1.1 |
| 20 | 13-7 | TCU | DAYTON | Serve err | TCU server | +1.7 | |
| 21 | 14-7 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Serve err | DAYTON server | +2.0 | |
| 22 | 14-8 | DAYTON | TCU | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +0.9 | |
| 23 | 15-8 | TCU | DAYTON | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +1.4 | |
| 24 | 15-9 | DAYTON | TCU×6 | Attack err | Sidney Sprada | blk Lauren Murphy, Kinsley Young | +0.9 |
| 25 | 15-10 | TCU | TCU×6 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +1.6 | |
| 26 | 15-11 | TCU | TCU×6 | Serve err | TCU server | +1.9 | |
| 27 | 15-12 | TCU | TCU×6 | Ace | TCU server | aced Team | +2.1 |
| 28 | 15-13 | TCU | TCU×6 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Kinsley Young | +2.3 |
| 29 | 15-14 | TCU | TCU×6 | Bad set | Sidney Sprada | +2.4 | |
| 30 | 16-14 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +2.1 |
| 31 | 16-15 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | DAYTON server | +1.7 | |
| 32 | 17-15 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | +2.3 | |
| 33 | 18-15 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Ace | DAYTON server | aced Jaylen Clark | +3.3 |
| 34 | 18-16 | DAYTON | TCU | Serve err | DAYTON server | +1.8 | |
| 35 | 19-16 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | +2.6 | |
| 36 | 19-17 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | +1.8 | |
| 37 | 19-18 | TCU | TCU | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +3.0 | |
| 38 | 20-18 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Kaleigh Meritt | set Natalie Harrington | +2.9 |
| 39 | 20-19 | DAYTON | TCU×4 | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | +2.2 | |
| 40 | 20-20 | TCU | TCU×4 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +3.5 | |
| 41 | 20-21 | TCU | TCU×4 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +3.4 | |
| 42 | 20-22 | TCU | TCU×4 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +2.9 | |
| 43 | 21-22 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Charlotte Vinson | +1.7 | |
| 44 | 21-23 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +2.2 |
| 45 | 22-23 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Kaleigh Meritt | set Rylee Sloss | +1.7 |
| 46 | 23-23 | DAYTON | DAYTON | Kill | Sidney Sprada | +4.5 | |
| 47 | 23-24 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | +4.1 | |
| 48 | 24-24 | TCU | DAYTON | Kill | Corrie Anderson | set Rylee Sloss | +4.1 |
| 49 | 24-25 | DAYTON | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +4.1 |
| 50 | 24-26 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +4.6 |
Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.