Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026

Bowling Green def. Dayton 3–1

Bowling Green beat visiting Dayton 3-1 (26-24, 18-25, 25-22, 25-22) on Fri, Sep 18, 2026. Karli Molnau led Bowling Green with 15 kills; Dayton's Kaleigh Meritt had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Sep 18

Set1234Sets
DAYTON242522221
BGSU261825253

Win probability

Bowling Green above 50 · Dayton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.1% BGSUrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.1% to Bowling Green — set 1, DAYTON 23-24 BGSU. Kill by Karli Molnau (set by Molly Beatty). BGSU win probability 49% → 60%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAYTON 49.4%50.6% BGSU

Dayton wins

3-0
12.2%
3-1
18.5%
3-2
18.6%

Bowling Green wins

3-0
12.8%
3-1
19.0%
3-2
18.9%
DAYTON break %
41.0% vs this opp
BGSU break %
41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Karli MolnauKill+10.1%

    Kill by Karli Molnau (set by Molly Beatty)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 23-24 BGSU · BGSU 49% → 60%

  2. 02
    Gabriela Machin BorgesAttack error+10.1%

    Attack error by Gabriela Machin Borges

    Set 1 · DAYTON 24-26 BGSU · BGSU 60% → 70%

  3. 03
    Bowling GreenAce+7.7%

    Bowling Green ace on Kaleigh Meritt

    Set 1 · DAYTON 23-23 BGSU · BGSU 42% → 49%

  4. 04

    Addi Gallentine stuffed by Helen Wilford & Karli Molnau

    Set 3 · DAYTON 19-20 BGSU · BGSU 50% → 57%

  5. 05
    Avery HobsonKill+7.1%

    Kill by Avery Hobson (set by Amanda Otten)

    Set 3 · DAYTON 19-21 BGSU · BGSU 57% → 64%

  6. 06

    Kill by Addi Gallentine (set by Avery Hobson)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 24-24 BGSU · DAYTON 40% → 48%

  7. 07
    Karli MolnauKill+7.1%

    Kill by Karli Molnau (set by Molly Beatty)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 24-25 BGSU · BGSU 52% → 60%

  8. 08
    Charlotte VinsonAttack error+6.1%

    Attack error by Charlotte Vinson

    Set 4 · DAYTON 21-23 BGSU · BGSU 86% → 92%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Daytonaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418236.444212121010.519.5
416740.22502110100018
48520.150100200008
4619.55610010010.56.5
41011.0002203400001
1224.000000000002
46520.050000100217
4106.1672622140010.53.5
4214.250000400002
4000–000110000
4000–2001500000
3002.000021000002
2117.00010010010.51.5
1001.000000000000
Team totals6124150.247557965506393
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414442.238200131031.515.5
415328.42900040010.515.5
45013.38500000254.59.5
47215.333114000219
4104.2503104400212
2329.11100000010.53.5
4003.0001201410002
4012-.500211400001
4001.0001300200000
4000–000800000
29119.4210107000010
2000–000000000
1000–001010000
Team totals5413136.30150510567214994

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 DAYTON · BGSU 4

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 DAYTONBGSU 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 7 DAYTONBGSU 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 DAYTONBGSU 4

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 5 DAYTONBGSU 4

Bars above the line = Bowling Green leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Dayton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
55%11/20
2
69%9/13
0%0/10
3
47%8/17
40%6/15
4
62%8/13
33%4/12
5
53%8/15
58%11/19
6
57%8/14
56%10/18
All
55%51/93
45%42/94

Bowling Green

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
55%12/22
2
64%9/14
36%5/14
3
73%8/11
50%8/16
4
50%8/16
47%7/15
5
44%8/18
27%3/11
6
57%8/14
47%7/15
All
55%52/94
45%42/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#DAYTON-BGSUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BGSUBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.6
21-1BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+1.8
31-2DAYTONBGSUKillAva Buddelmeyerset Amanda Otten+1.8
42-2BGSUDAYTON×4Attack errAva Buddelmeyer+1.8
53-2DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+2.7
64-2DAYTONDAYTON×4KillAva Lieningset Rylee Sloss+2.7
75-2DAYTONDAYTON×4KillAva Lieningset Rylee Sloss+2.6
85-3DAYTONBGSUBlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Ava Buddelmeyer, Helen Wilford+1.7
95-4BGSUBGSUBlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Avery Hobson, Helen Wilford+2.6
106-4BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+2.0
117-4DAYTONDAYTONAceDaytonaced Edyta Waclawczyk+2.7
127-5DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.7
137-6BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Lily Barry+2.7
148-6BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+2.1
158-7DAYTONBGSUBlockedKamryn Huntblk Amanda Otten, Cecily Waynar+2.0
168-8BGSUBGSUAttack errKamryn Hunt+3.0
179-8BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+2.2
1810-8DAYTONDAYTONKillNatalie Harringtonset Addi Gallentine+3.1
1910-9DAYTONBGSU×3KillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+2.1
2010-10BGSUBGSU×3KillKarli Molnauset Avery Hobson+3.2
2110-11BGSUBGSU×3KillCecily Waynarset Avery Hobson+3.3
2211-11BGSUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.3
2312-11DAYTONDAYTONAttack errAva Buddelmeyer+3.5
2412-12DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+2.4
2512-13BGSUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Avery Hobson+3.6
2613-13BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+2.5
2713-14DAYTONBGSUAttack errKaleigh Meritt+2.6
2814-14BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+2.6
2914-15DAYTONBGSUKillAva Buddelmeyerset Amanda Otten+2.7
3014-16BGSUBGSUBlockedAva Lieningblk Amanda Otten, Helen Wilford+3.9
3115-16BGSUDAYTONAttack errAvery Hobson+2.5
3215-17DAYTONBGSU×3KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+2.8
3315-18BGSUBGSU×3BlockedAva Lieningblk Avery Hobson, Cecily Waynar+3.7
3415-19BGSUBGSU×3AceBowling Greenaced Kamryn Hunt+3.0
3516-19BGSUDAYTON×3KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+1.5
3617-19DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedAvery Hobsonblk Natalie Harrington, Charlotte Vinson+3.0
3718-19DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+4.0
3818-20DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+3.4
3919-20BGSUDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+2.9
4020-20DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Avery Hobson+5.3
4121-20DAYTONDAYTON×4KillAddi Gallentineset Natalie Harrington+6.1
4222-20DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+5.9
4322-21DAYTONBGSUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+3.2
4423-21BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+4.6
4523-22DAYTONBGSU×3KillCecily Waynarset Molly Beatty+3.2
4623-23BGSUBGSU×3AceBowling Greenaced Kaleigh Meritt+7.7
4723-24BGSUBGSU×3KillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+10.1
4824-24BGSUDAYTONKillAddi Gallentineset Avery Hobson+7.1
4924-25DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+7.1
5024-26BGSUBGSUAttack errGabriela Machin Borges+10.1
Set 2
11-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillAddi Gallentineset Rylee Sloss+2.6
22-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Morgan Asleson+2.5
33-0DAYTONDAYTON×7AceDayton+2.5
44-0DAYTONDAYTON×7AceDayton+2.3
55-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+2.1
66-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillAddi Gallentine+1.8
77-0DAYTONDAYTON×7Attack errCecily Waynar+1.5
87-1DAYTONBGSU×3KillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+0.8
97-2BGSUBGSU×3KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+1.5
107-3BGSUBGSU×3BlockedKamryn Huntblk Helen Wilford+1.8
118-3BGSUDAYTONKillAddi Gallentineset Rylee Sloss+1.5
128-4DAYTONBGSUKillAva Buddelmeyerset Amanda Otten+1.3
139-4BGSUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.5
149-5DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.3
159-6BGSUBGSUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+2.2
1610-6BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+1.8
1710-7DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.5
1811-7BGSUDAYTON×3KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.8
1912-7DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Kaleigh Meritt+2.2
2013-7DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedAlivia Brownblk Charlotte Vinson, Addi Gallentine+1.8
2113-8DAYTONBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.0
2214-8BGSUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.3
2314-9DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton+0.9
2415-9BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+1.2
2515-10DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+0.9
2616-10BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.2
2716-11DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+0.8
2816-12BGSUBGSUAttack errKamryn Hunt+1.7
2917-12BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.6
3017-13DAYTONBGSUKillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+1.1
3118-13BGSUDAYTON×3KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+1.6
3219-13DAYTONDAYTON×3AceDayton+1.6
3320-13DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Morgan Asleson+0.9
3420-14DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton+0.3
3520-15BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+0.8
3621-15BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.9
3722-15DAYTONDAYTONAttack errAvery Hobson+0.7
3822-16DAYTONBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Cecily Waynar+0.2
3922-17BGSUBGSUBad setLily Barry+0.5
4023-17BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.6
4124-17DAYTONDAYTONAttack errKarli Molnau+0.3
4224-18DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton·
4325-18BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+0.1
Set 3
11-0BGSUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.4
21-1DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.4
32-1BGSUDAYTONKillAddi Gallentineset Rylee Sloss+2.4
43-1DAYTONDAYTONAttack errKarli Molnau+3.5
53-2DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+2.3
63-3BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+3.6
74-3BGSUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.6
84-4DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+2.5
94-5BGSUBGSUAceBowling Green+3.7
105-5BGSUDAYTON×4KillRylee Slossset Gabriela Machin Borges+2.6
116-5DAYTONDAYTON×4BlockedCecily Waynarblk Kaleigh Meritt, Isabel Simmons+3.8
127-5DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+3.8
138-5DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Sydnie Hernandez+3.7
148-6DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton+2.3
159-6BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+2.6
1610-6DAYTONDAYTONBad setCecily Waynar+3.4
1710-7DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton+2.1
1811-7BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+2.4
1911-8DAYTONBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.1
2011-9BGSUBGSUBlockedCharlotte Vinsonblk Helen Wilford, Avery Hobson+3.5
2112-9BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+2.8
2212-10DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton+2.5
2313-10BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+2.9
2413-11DAYTONBGSU×4KillAnastasija Bozicset Molly Beatty+2.6
2513-12BGSUBGSU×4Attack errKamryn Hunt+4.3
2613-13BGSUBGSU×4Attack errGabriela Machin Borges+4.8
2713-14BGSUBGSU×4Attack errKamryn Hunt+5.0
2814-14BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+3.5
2915-14DAYTONDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+5.2
3015-15DAYTONBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Molly Beatty+3.6
3116-15BGSUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Kaleigh Meritt+3.9
3217-15DAYTONDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Morgan Asleson+5.5
3317-16DAYTONBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Alivia Brown+3.4
3417-17BGSUBGSUAceBowling Green+5.8
3518-17BGSUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+4.3
3618-18DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+4.3
3719-18BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+4.7
3819-19DAYTONBGSU×4KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+4.6
3919-20BGSUBGSU×4BlockedAddi Gallentineblk Helen Wilford, Karli Molnau+7.3
4019-21BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+7.1
4119-22BGSUBGSU×4Attack errSidney Sprada+5.8
4220-22BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+2.6
4320-23DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+4.2
4420-24BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Molly Beatty+3.3
4521-24BGSUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.7
4622-24DAYTONDAYTONBad setMolly Beatty+2.3
4722-25DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton+3.9
Set 4
11-0DAYTONDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+3.4
21-1DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.4
31-2BGSUBGSUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+3.5
42-2BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+2.4
52-3DAYTONBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.5
63-3BGSUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.5
74-3DAYTONDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+3.6
84-4DAYTONBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.5
94-5BGSUBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+3.7
105-5BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+2.6
115-6DAYTONBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.7
126-6BGSUDAYTONAttack errAnastasija Bozic+2.6
137-6DAYTONDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+3.9
147-7DAYTONBGSU×4Bad setRylee Sloss+2.7
157-8BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+4.0
167-9BGSUBGSU×4KillHelen Wilford+4.0
177-10BGSUBGSU×4Attack errIsabel Simmons+3.8
188-10BGSUDAYTONServe errBowling Green+2.4
198-11DAYTONBGSU×4Serve errDayton+2.7
208-12BGSUBGSU×4KillKarli Molnauset Sydnie Hernandez+3.5
218-13BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobson+3.0
228-14BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.3
239-14BGSUDAYTON×3Serve errBowling Green+1.2
2410-14DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errKarli Molnau+2.3
2511-14DAYTONDAYTON×3AceDayton+3.0
2611-15DAYTONBGSUServe errDayton+2.6
2712-15BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+2.1
2812-16DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+2.6
2912-17BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Molly Beatty+3.0
3013-17BGSUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+1.5
3113-18DAYTONBGSUAttack errGabriela Machin Borges+2.1
3213-19BGSUBGSUAttack errKamryn Hunt+2.0
3314-19BGSUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+0.9
3414-20DAYTONBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.3
3515-20BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Morgan Asleson+0.7
3616-20DAYTONDAYTONAttack errAvery Hobson+1.7
3716-21DAYTONBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Alivia Brown+1.9
3816-22BGSUBGSUAttack errKaleigh Meritt+1.5
3917-22BGSUDAYTON×5KillIsabel Simmonsset Rylee Sloss+0.4
4018-22DAYTONDAYTON×5KillSidney Spradaset Isabel Simmons+1.2
4119-22DAYTONDAYTON×5KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+2.2
4220-22DAYTONDAYTON×5KillKaleigh Merittset Amanda Otten+3.7
4321-22DAYTONDAYTON×5KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+6.0
4421-23DAYTONBGSUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+6.1
4521-24BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+6.1
4622-24BGSUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+1.6
4722-25DAYTONBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+3.8

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).