4TH SETSat, Sep 19, 2026

AwayATLANTIC-10

2:1

HomeMAC

Dayton at Toledo

Set	1*	2	3*	4*	Sets
DAYTON	25	18	25	7	2
TOLEDO	19	25	16	6	1

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 4: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

TOLEDO above 50 · DAYTON below

Biggest swing: 4.5% to Dayton — set 4, DAYTON 7-6 TOLEDO. Attack error by Jessica Costlow. TOLEDO win probability 36% → 32%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DAYTON 29.8%70.2% TOLEDO

Dayton wins

3-0

5.7%

3-1

10.4%

3-2

13.7%

Toledo wins

3-0

23.4%

3-1

26.9%

3-2

19.9%

DAYTON break %: 40.7% vs this opp
TOLEDO break %: 44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jessica CostlowAttack error+4.5%
Attack error by Jessica Costlow
Set 4 · DAYTON 7-6 TOLEDO · DAYTON 64% → 68%
02
Sophie CatalanoAttack error+4.3%
Attack error by Sophie Catalano
Set 4 · DAYTON 5-4 TOLEDO · DAYTON 64% → 68%
03
TOLEDO serverAce+4.1%
Toledo ace on TEAM
Set 4 · DAYTON 5-6 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 35% → 39%
04
Olivia HeitkampAttack error+4.0%
Attack error by Olivia Heitkamp
Set 4 · DAYTON 2-1 TOLEDO · DAYTON 63% → 67%
05
TOLEDO serverAce+3.8%
Toledo ace on Lily Barry
Set 4 · DAYTON 2-3 TOLEDO · TOLEDO 36% → 40%
06
DAYTON serverAce+3.6%
Dayton ace on Madelyn Bach
Set 3 · DAYTON 6-3 TOLEDO · DAYTON 40% → 44%
07
Kamryn HuntKill+3.6%
Kill by Kamryn Hunt (set by Rylee Sloss)
Set 3 · DAYTON 8-4 TOLEDO · DAYTON 44% → 48%
08
Unlogged pointFeed gap+3.4%
Point Dayton (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 3 · DAYTON 11-6 TOLEDO · DAYTON 49% → 52%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Daytonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Charlotte VinsonOH	4	10	2	20	.400	0	0	0	5	0	3	1.5	11.5
2Kamryn HuntOH	4	7	4	27	.111	0	2	3	13	0	1	0.5	9.5
3Abigail CresseMB	4	7	1	13	.462	0	0	1	4	0	3	1.5	8.5
6Addi GallentineMB	4	5	0	12	.417	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	7
1Kaleigh MerittOH	4	4	4	28	.000	0	0	0	16	1	3	1.5	5.5
9Natalie HarringtonS	4	0	0	1	.000	17	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
16Gabriela Machin borgesOH	4	7	2	19	.263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
12Rylee SlossS	4	0	0	1	.000	13	1	1	10	0	0	0	1
22Sidney SpradaOH	4	0	2	8	-.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
13Sydney BarrettOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31Lily BarryL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	3	2	0	0	0
10Emily HardenS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Isabel SimmonsMB	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Ava LieningMB	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Morgan AslesonL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	10	0	0	0	0
7Sienna FryOPP	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Melina SchraderS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Corrie AndersonOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	15	129	.194	35	3	6	70	4	14	7	75

Toledohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Jessica CostlowOH	4	6	3	33	.091	1	0	1	12	1	0	0	6
22Sierra PertzbornMB	4	6	3	19	.158	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
14Ava SiefkeOH	4	5	6	25	-.040	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	5.5
23Lilly MerkMB	4	3	2	7	.143	0	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	3.5
10Kayla OzanichMB	4	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
15Madelyn BachS	4	0	0	3	.000	13	0	1	7	1	0	0	0
16Sophie CatalanoOPP	4	11	4	28	.250	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11
4Olivia HeitkampOH	4	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
1Grace FreibergerL/DS	4	0	0	2	.000	12	2	2	17	0	0	0	2
21Meg JarrettL/DS	4	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	2
9Audrey DyasMB	4	1	1	10	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
3Janelle GreenS	4	0	0	0	–	12	1	0	10	0	0	0	1
18Caylee SharkeyOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Brooke NaniseniOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Gabbi LeblancS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Lucy MonahanMB	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Jadyn KennedyL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Sydney CrowleyL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Avery AdamskiL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
2Mariah GainesOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	23	148	.115	39	4	8	70	3	2	1	66

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 DAYTON · TOLEDO 4

Set 1*

25-19

Longest run 4 DAYTONTOLEDO 3

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 DAYTONTOLEDO 4

Set 3*

25-16

Longest run 3 DAYTONTOLEDO 2

Set 4*

7-6

Longest run 2 DAYTONTOLEDO 2

Bars above the line = Toledo leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	DAYTON-TOLEDO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+2.1
2	1-1	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Attack err	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+1.6
3	2-1	DAYTON	DAYTON	Ace	DAYTON server	aced Jessica Costlow	+2.3
4	2-2	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+1.6
5	3-2	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+1.8
6	4-2	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Morgan Asleson	+2.4
7	4-3	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Serve err	DAYTON server		+1.7
8	5-3	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Kaleigh Meritt	set Lily Barry	+1.9
9	5-4	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.7
10	6-4	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+1.9
11	6-5	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+1.8
12	7-5	TOLEDO	DAYTON×3	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Rylee Sloss	+2.0
13	8-5	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Abigail Cresse	set Rylee Sloss	+2.7
14	9-5	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Kamryn Hunt, Abigail Cresse	+2.6
15	9-6	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+1.6
16	10-6	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Abigail Cresse	set Rylee Sloss	+2.0
17	10-7	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+1.7
18	10-8	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Kayla Ozanich	set Madelyn Bach	+2.5
19	11-8	TOLEDO	DAYTON×4	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Lily Barry	+2.2
20	12-8	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+2.7
21	13-8	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson	+2.5
22	14-8	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+2.1
23	14-9	DAYTON	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Madelyn Bach		+1.1
24	14-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+1.9
25	14-11	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Grace Freiberger	+2.4
26	15-11	TOLEDO	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+2.2
27	16-11	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+2.5
28	17-11	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn	blk Kaleigh Meritt, Addi Gallentine	+2.0
29	17-12	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+1.0
30	18-12	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Natalie Harrington	+1.5
31	18-13	DAYTON	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.9
32	18-14	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Kill	Sophie Catalano		+1.8
33	18-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.4
34	19-15	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt		+2.4
35	19-16	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Janelle Green	+1.7
36	20-16	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin borges	set Rylee Sloss	+2.5
37	21-16	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+2.4
38	21-17	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+1.0
39	22-17	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin borges	set Rylee Sloss	+1.7
40	22-18	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Attack err	Abigail Cresse	set Natalie Harrington	+0.8
41	23-18	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+1.5
42	24-18	DAYTON	DAYTON	Ace	DAYTON server	aced TEAM	+0.8
43	24-19	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Madelyn Bach	+0.1
44	25-19	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Abigail Cresse	set Natalie Harrington	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+2.0
2	0-2	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+2.5
3	1-2	TOLEDO	DAYTON×3	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+1.9
4	2-2	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Natalie Harrington		+2.8
5	3-2	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Kayla Ozanich		+3.0
6	3-3	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Attack err	Kaleigh Meritt	set Natalie Harrington	+2.1
7	4-3	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Abigail Cresse		+2.3
8	5-3	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Natalie Harrington	+3.2
9	5-4	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Madelyn Bach	+2.2
10	5-5	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+3.1
11	6-5	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Attack err	Ava Siefke	blk Addi Gallentine, Charlotte Vinson	+2.4
12	6-6	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.3
13	7-6	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin borges	set Lily Barry	+2.5
14	7-7	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Madelyn Bach	+2.4
15	8-7	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+2.6
16	8-8	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Serve err	DAYTON server		+2.5
17	9-8	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+2.7
18	9-9	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Janelle Green	+2.5
19	9-10	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Kaleigh Meritt	+3.4
20	10-10	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+2.6
21	10-11	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+2.6
22	10-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+3.3
23	11-12	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+2.4
24	11-13	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Attack err	Kaleigh Meritt	set Sydney Barrett	+2.6
25	12-13	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+2.5
26	12-14	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Attack err	Gabriela Machin borges	blk Ava Siefke, Lilly Merk	+2.7
27	12-15	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Attack err	Gabriela Machin borges		+3.2
28	13-15	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Jessica Costlow	+2.2
29	13-16	DAYTON	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Ava Siefke	set Grace Freiberger	+2.4
30	13-17	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+2.7
31	13-18	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+2.0
32	13-19	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Lily Barry	+1.4
33	14-19	TOLEDO	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke	set Jessica Costlow	+0.7
34	15-19	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Ava Siefke		+1.4
35	16-19	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Abigail Cresse		+2.1
36	16-20	DAYTON	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+2.1
37	16-21	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+1.9
38	16-22	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Kaleigh Meritt		+1.0
39	16-23	TOLEDO	TOLEDO×4	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+0.4
40	17-23	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+0.1
41	17-24	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Attack err	Kaleigh Meritt	set Natalie Harrington	+0.2
42	18-24	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
43	18-25	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Grace Freiberger	+2.9
2	1-1	TOLEDO	DAYTON×3	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+2.2
3	2-1	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Abigail Cresse	set Natalie Harrington	+3.2
4	3-1	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+3.4
5	3-2	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Serve err	DAYTON server		+2.3
6	4-2	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+2.6
7	4-3	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sophie Catalano	set Janelle Green	+2.4
8	5-3	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Natalie Harrington	+2.7
9	6-3	DAYTON	DAYTON	Ace	DAYTON server	aced Madelyn Bach	+3.6
10	6-4	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Sierra Pertzborn	set Grace Freiberger	+2.4
11	7-4	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin borges	set Rylee Sloss	+2.8
12	8-4	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+3.6
13	8-5	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+2.3
14	9-5	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Rylee Sloss	+2.7
15	9-6	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Grace Freiberger	+2.3
16	10-6	TOLEDO	DAYTON×3	Kill	Gabriela Machin borges	set Rylee Sloss	+2.8
17	11-6	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+3.4
18	12-6	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+3.0
19	12-7	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Grace Freiberger	+1.7
20	13-7	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+2.2
21	13-8	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Avery Adamski	+1.7
22	14-8	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+2.2
23	14-9	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+1.6
24	15-9	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+2.2
25	16-9	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn	blk Addi Gallentine, Kaleigh Meritt	+2.3
26	16-10	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Serve err	DAYTON server		+1.1
27	17-10	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Attack err	Lilly Merk	set Madelyn Bach	+1.7
28	18-10	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Sierra Pertzborn		+1.5
29	18-11	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt	set Morgan Asleson	+0.6
30	18-12	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Madelyn Bach	+1.3
31	19-12	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+1.5
32	19-13	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Madelyn Bach	+0.8
33	20-13	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin borges		+1.3
34	20-14	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Audrey Dyas	set Janelle Green	+0.7
35	21-14	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Lily Barry	+1.2
36	22-14	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+0.8
37	22-15	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.2
38	23-15	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Kaleigh Meritt	set Natalie Harrington	+0.4
39	23-16	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Jessica Costlow	set Grace Freiberger	+0.1
40	24-16	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Attack err	Sophie Catalano	blk Addi Gallentine, Kaleigh Meritt	+0.2
41	25-16	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Kaleigh Meritt		+0.1
Set 4
1	0-1	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Meg Jarrett	set Jessica Costlow	+2.7
2	1-1	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Attack err	Audrey Dyas	blk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson	+2.8
3	2-1	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Olivia Heitkamp		+4.0
4	2-2	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Serve err	DAYTON server		+2.9
5	2-3	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced Lily Barry	+3.8
6	3-3	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Kaleigh Meritt	set Natalie Harrington	+2.9
7	3-4	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+2.9
8	4-4	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+3.0
9	5-4	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Sophie Catalano		+4.3
10	5-5	DAYTON	TOLEDO	Kill	Olivia Heitkamp	set Janelle Green	+3.1
11	5-6	TOLEDO	TOLEDO	Ace	TOLEDO server	aced TEAM	+4.1
12	6-6	TOLEDO	DAYTON	Serve err	TOLEDO server		+3.1
13	7-6	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Jessica Costlow		+4.5

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.