FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayAMERICA-EAST

3:0

HomeSOUTHLAND

UMBC def. UTRGV 3–0

(25-14, 25-13, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UMBC	25	25	25	3
UTRGV	14	13	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UTRGV above 50 · UMBC below

Biggest swing: 2.3% to UTRGV — set 1, UMBC 0-1 UTRGV. Attack error by Hannah Dobbs. UTRGV win probability 32% → 34%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UMBC 68.2%31.8% UTRGV

UMBC wins

3-0

22.0%

3-1

26.2%

3-2

20.0%

UTRGV wins

3-0

6.2%

3-1

11.2%

3-2

14.3%

UMBC break %: 44.2% vs this opp
UTRGV break %: 40.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Hannah DobbsAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Hannah Dobbs
Set 1 · UMBC 0-1 UTRGV · UTRGV 32% → 34%
02
Ema PetkovicKill+2.3%
Kill by Ema Petkovic (set by Lana Rnjak)
Set 1 · UMBC 7-6 UTRGV · UTRGV 27% → 30%
03
Soukeyna DioufAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Soukeyna Diouf
Set 1 · UMBC 3-2 UTRGV · UMBC 67% → 70%
04
UMBC serverAce+2.3%
UMBC ace on Dunja Stankovic
Set 1 · UMBC 10-7 UTRGV · UMBC 72% → 74%
05
Claudia LlamasKill+2.2%
Kill by Claudia Llamas (set by Isabel Ostvig)
Set 1 · UMBC 4-2 UTRGV · UMBC 70% → 72%
06
Jalynn BrownKill+2.1%
Kill by Jalynn Brown (set by Hannah Dobbs)
Set 1 · UMBC 7-4 UTRGV · UMBC 72% → 74%
07
Ema PetkovicAttack error+2.1%
Ema Petkovic stuffed by Hannah Dobbs & Helen Frankovich
Set 1 · UMBC 13-9 UTRGV · UMBC 75% → 77%
08
Dasia JohnsonKill+1.8%
Kill by Dasia Johnson (set by Alissa Grant)
Set 2 · UMBC 1-0 UTRGV · UMBC 82% → 83%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UMBCaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Hannah DobbsOH	3	15	4	37	.297	1	2	0	4	2	0	4	2	19
24Helen FrankovichMB	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	2	0	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
22Alissa GrantMB	3	6	0	8	.750	1	0	0	0	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
12Isabel OstvigS	3	1	1	2	.000	38	2	2	7	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Dasia JohnsonOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	2
23Ella McAllisterL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
14Claudia LlamasOH	3	8	2	16	.375	0	0	2	2	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
13Jalynn BrownOH	3	7	0	11	.636	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	8
16Hannah HowardL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	12	0	0	0	0	1
3Molly PennDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		44	8	86	.419	44	7	9	38	3	2	20	12	75

UTRGVhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Martina FrancoOH	3	12	4	30	.267	0	1	0	8	3	0	0	13
22Julianna BryantMB	3	8	6	18	.111	0	1	0	1	1	2	1	10
7Ema PetkovicOH	3	5	4	20	.050	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Aaliyah SneadMB	3	1	0	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
10Lana RnjakS	3	0	2	5	-.400	16	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8Dunja StankovicDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
5Celianiz CabranesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
25Soukeyna DioufOH	2	1	2	9	-.111	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1
9Jasmyn WalkerMB	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	1
6Agata MakowskaS	1	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Carmina TijerinaDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	20	92	.076	25	3	4	26	7	6	3	48

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 UMBC · UTRGV 4

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 6 UMBCUTRGV 2

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 6 UMBCUTRGV 4

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 UMBCUTRGV 3

Bars above the line = UTRGV leads, below = UMBC leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UMBC

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	62%8/13
2	70%7/10	36%4/11
3	60%6/10	63%10/16
4	83%5/6	64%9/14
5	71%5/7	64%9/14
6	71%5/7	0%0/5
All	70%35/50	55%40/73

UTRGV

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	33%3/9
2	46%6/13	30%3/10
3	33%6/18	14%1/7
4	45%5/11	33%3/9
5	50%5/10	38%3/8
6	40%4/10	29%2/7
All	45%33/73	30%15/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	UMBC-UTRGV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+2.3
2	1-1	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.6
3	1-2	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Dunja Stankovic	+1.8
4	2-2	UTRGV	UMBC×3	Kill	Helen Frankovich	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.7
5	3-2	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf		+2.3
6	4-2	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+2.2
7	4-3	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.6
8	5-3	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Helen Frankovich	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.6
9	5-4	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+1.6
10	6-4	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Hannah Howard	+1.7
11	7-4	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Hannah Dobbs	+2.1
12	7-5	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+1.5
13	7-6	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+2.3
14	8-6	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.7
15	8-7	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.7
16	9-7	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.8
17	10-7	UMBC	UMBC	Ace	UMBC server	aced Dunja Stankovic	+2.3
18	10-8	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.6
19	11-8	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.7
20	11-9	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.6
21	12-9	UTRGV	UMBC	Attack err	Lana Rnjak		+1.7
22	13-9	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Hannah Dobbs, Helen Frankovich	+2.1
23	13-10	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Celianiz Cabranes	+1.3
24	14-10	UTRGV	UMBC×4	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.5
25	15-10	UMBC	UMBC×4	Ace	UMBC server	aced Soukeyna Diouf	+1.7
26	16-10	UMBC	UMBC×4	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+1.2
27	17-10	UMBC	UMBC×4	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.8
28	17-11	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
29	18-11	UTRGV	UMBC	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.6
30	18-12	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.4
31	19-12	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.5
32	19-13	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
33	19-14	UTRGV	UTRGV	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Hannah Dobbs	+0.7
34	20-14	UTRGV	UMBC×6	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.8
35	21-14	UMBC	UMBC×6	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.6
36	22-14	UMBC	UMBC×6	Attack err	Martina Franco		+0.3
37	23-14	UMBC	UMBC×6	Attack err	Martina Franco	blk Alissa Grant, Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
38	24-14	UMBC	UMBC×6	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
39	25-14	UMBC	UMBC×6	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Dasia Johnson	set Alissa Grant	+1.8
2	2-0	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Lana Rnjak		+1.7
3	2-1	UMBC	UTRGV	Attack err	Isabel Ostvig		+1.3
4	3-1	UTRGV	UMBC×3	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.3
5	4-1	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.6
6	5-1	UMBC	UMBC×3	Ace	UMBC server	aced Soukeyna Diouf	+1.5
7	5-2	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+1.0
8	6-2	UTRGV	UMBC×4	Kill	Helen Frankovich	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.1
9	7-2	UMBC	UMBC×4	Ace	UMBC server	aced Martina Franco	+1.3
10	8-2	UMBC	UMBC×4	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.1
11	9-2	UMBC	UMBC×4	Ace	UMBC server	aced Martina Franco	+0.8
12	9-3	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.5
13	10-3	UTRGV	UMBC	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf	blk Hannah Dobbs, Helen Frankovich	+0.6
14	11-3	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+0.6
15	11-4	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Agata Makowska	+0.3
16	11-5	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Agata Makowska	+0.6
17	12-5	UTRGV	UMBC×6	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.6
18	13-5	UMBC	UMBC×6	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+0.6
19	14-5	UMBC	UMBC×6	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.4
20	15-5	UMBC	UMBC×6	Attack err	Martina Franco	blk Claudia Llamas, Alissa Grant	+0.2
21	16-5	UMBC	UMBC×6	Attack err	Julianna Bryant	blk Alissa Grant	+0.1
22	17-5	UMBC	UMBC×6	Attack err	Jasmyn Walker	blk Alissa Grant, Jalynn Brown	+0.1
23	17-6	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Agata Makowska	+0.0
24	18-6	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
25	18-7	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Celianiz Cabranes	+0.0
26	19-7	UTRGV	UMBC	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.0
27	19-8	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.0
28	20-8	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
29	20-9	UMBC	UTRGV	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs	blk Aaliyah Snead, Ema Petkovic	+0.0
30	21-9	UTRGV	UMBC×3	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
31	22-9	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Helen Frankovich	+0.0
32	23-9	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Julianna Bryant	blk Helen Frankovich, Hannah Dobbs	+0.0
33	23-10	UMBC	UTRGV×4	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.0
34	23-11	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Martina Franco	set Agata Makowska	+0.0
35	23-12	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Claudia Llamas	blk Jasmyn Walker, Julianna Bryant	+0.0
36	23-13	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Agata Makowska	+0.0
37	24-13	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
38	25-13	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Hannah Howard	+0.8
2	1-1	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.8
3	2-1	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.8
4	2-2	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.8
5	2-3	UTRGV	UTRGV	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Hannah Dobbs	+1.2
6	3-3	UTRGV	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Hannah Howard	+0.8
7	4-3	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+1.1
8	5-3	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Julianna Bryant	blk Helen Frankovich, Claudia Llamas	+1.1
9	5-4	UMBC	UTRGV	Attack err	Claudia Llamas	blk Julianna Bryant, Jasmyn Walker	+0.8
10	6-4	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Helen Frankovich	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.8
11	6-5	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.8
12	7-5	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Hannah Howard	+0.8
13	7-6	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.8
14	7-7	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead		+1.2
15	8-7	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.9
16	8-8	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+1.0
17	9-8	UTRGV	UMBC×3	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.9
18	10-8	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.2
19	11-8	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.1
20	11-9	UMBC	UTRGV×3	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.8
21	11-10	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Dasia Johnson	+1.2
22	11-11	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+1.4
23	12-11	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Helen Frankovich	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.1
24	13-11	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.4
25	13-12	UMBC	UTRGV	Attack err	Helen Frankovich		+1.0
26	14-12	UTRGV	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.0
27	15-12	UMBC	UMBC×3	Ace	UMBC server	aced Julianna Bryant	+1.3
28	16-12	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.1
29	16-13	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.6
30	17-13	UTRGV	UMBC×4	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.8
31	18-13	UMBC	UMBC×4	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.8
32	19-13	UMBC	UMBC×4	Ace	UMBC server	aced Martina Franco	+0.5
33	20-13	UMBC	UMBC×4	Attack err	Jasmyn Walker	blk Alissa Grant, Jalynn Brown	+0.3
34	20-14	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
35	20-15	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
36	21-15	UTRGV	UMBC	Attack err	Martina Franco	blk Claudia Llamas, Alissa Grant	+0.3
37	21-16	UMBC	UTRGV	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.2
38	22-16	UTRGV	UMBC	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.3
39	22-17	UMBC	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+0.1
40	22-18	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+0.4
41	22-19	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Kill	Martina Franco	set Celianiz Cabranes	+0.6
42	23-19	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.8
43	23-20	UMBC	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
44	23-21	UTRGV	UTRGV	Serve err	UTRGV server		+1.0
45	24-21	UTRGV	UMBC	Kill	Helen Frankovich	set Isabel Ostvig	+1.3
46	25-21	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Helen Frankovich, Hannah Dobbs	+0.7

Score shown after each rally, UMBC first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.