FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayAMERICA-EAST

3:0

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UMBC def. Canisius 3–0

(25-13, 25-22, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UMBC	25	25	25	3
CANISI	13	22	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CANISI above 50 · UMBC below

Biggest swing: 0.2% to Canisius — set 2, UMBC 6-7 CANISI. Hannah Dobbs stuffed by Emily Helmers & Hannah Kos. CANISI win probability 1% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UMBC 98.6%1.4% CANISI

UMBC wins

3-0

71.2%

3-1

22.9%

3-2

4.6%

Canisius wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.9%

UMBC break %: 52.6% vs this opp
CANISI break %: 35.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Hannah DobbsAttack error+0.2%
Hannah Dobbs stuffed by Emily Helmers & Hannah Kos
Set 2 · UMBC 6-7 CANISI · CANISI 1% → 1%
02
CANISI serverAce+0.2%
Canisius ace on Team
Set 2 · UMBC 14-13 CANISI · CANISI 1% → 1%
03
Natalie HarrisKill+0.2%
Kill by Natalie Harris (set by Isabel Ostvig)
Set 2 · UMBC 24-21 CANISI · UMBC 100% → 100%
04
Natalie HarrisKill+0.2%
Kill by Natalie Harris (set by Isabel Ostvig)
Set 2 · UMBC 23-20 CANISI · UMBC 100% → 100%
05
Madison CowanKill+0.2%
Kill by Madison Cowan (set by Anna Rich)
Set 2 · UMBC 7-8 CANISI · CANISI 1% → 1%
06
Claudia LlamasKill+0.2%
Kill by Claudia Llamas (set by Hannah Howard)
Set 2 · UMBC 9-8 CANISI · UMBC 99% → 99%
07
Claudia LlamasAttack error+0.2%
Claudia Llamas stuffed by Emily Helmers & Hannah Kos
Set 2 · UMBC 20-18 CANISI · CANISI 0% → 1%
08
UMBC serverService error+0.2%
UMBC service error
Set 1 · UMBC 1-1 CANISI · CANISI 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UMBCaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Claudia LlamasOH	3	9	2	22	.318	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	11
6Hannah DobbsOH	3	6	2	16	.250	1	3	1	5	0	2	1	10
17Grace LarriveeMB	3	2	0	5	.400	1	2	0	2	0	3	1.5	5.5
22Alissa GrantMB	3	2	2	6	.000	0	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	4.5
13Jalynn BrownOH	2	6	0	12	.500	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
12Isabel OstvigS	2	4	0	7	.571	15	0	2	5	0	4	2	6
16Hannah HowardL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	0	2	15	1	0	0	0
23Ella McAllisterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
4Ema DjordjevicOH	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Dasia JohnsonOH	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
3Molly PennDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
7Natalie HarrisOH	1	7	3	13	.308	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7
9Elyse VanLandinghamL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
11Megan HunterS	1	0	0	0	–	7	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	9	83	.325	34	5	9	36	3	18	9	75

Canisiushome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
18Alli FarmerOH	3	9	9	26	.000	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	10
16Emma IsroffOH	3	5	5	18	.000	1	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	5.5
7Julia LenikOH	3	4	6	29	-.069	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	4
9Emily HelmersMB	3	3	0	7	.429	0	0	2	2	0	2	1	4
20McKenna CorcoranMB	3	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
19Kenslie WarmbrodtS	3	0	0	0	–	11	2	2	5	0	0	0	2
12Hannah KosOH	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	6.5
5Madison CowanOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	1
4Anna RichS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
11Brenda ReynagaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	9	4	0	0	0
Team totals		28	23	96	.052	28	3	9	32	5	8	4	50

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 UMBC · CANISI 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 5 UMBCCANISI 2

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 UMBCCANISI 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 5 UMBCCANISI 3

Bars above the line = Canisius leads, below = UMBC leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UMBC

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	54%7/13
2	64%7/11	46%6/13
3	67%6/9	63%10/16
4	71%5/7	38%3/8
5	83%5/6	38%3/8
6	71%5/7	67%10/15
All	69%36/52	53%39/73

Canisius

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	22%2/9
2	44%7/16	46%6/13
3	71%5/7	36%4/11
4	56%5/9	0%0/5
5	38%5/13	29%2/7
6	45%5/11	29%2/7
All	47%34/73	31%16/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	UMBC-CANISI	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CANISI	UMBC	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Claudia Llamas, Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
2	1-1	UMBC	CANISI	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.2
3	2-1	CANISI	UMBC×5	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
4	3-1	UMBC	UMBC×5	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Alissa Grant, Isabel Ostvig	+0.2
5	4-1	UMBC	UMBC×5	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
6	5-1	UMBC	UMBC×5	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.1
7	6-1	UMBC	UMBC×5	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.1
8	6-2	UMBC	CANISI	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.1
9	7-2	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Hannah Dobbs	+0.1
10	7-3	UMBC	CANISI	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.1
11	8-3	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Dasia Johnson	+0.1
12	9-3	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.1
13	9-4	UMBC	CANISI	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.0
14	10-4	CANISI	UMBC×3	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.0
15	11-4	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Jalynn Brown	+0.0
16	12-4	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik	blk Grace Larrivee, Claudia Llamas	+0.0
17	12-5	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.0
18	13-5	CANISI	UMBC	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
19	13-6	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.0
20	14-6	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
21	14-7	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.0
22	15-7	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
23	15-8	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
24	16-8	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
25	16-9	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
26	17-9	CANISI	UMBC	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
27	17-10	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
28	18-10	CANISI	UMBC×4	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
29	19-10	UMBC	UMBC×4	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
30	20-10	UMBC	UMBC×4	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.0
31	21-10	UMBC	UMBC×4	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Hannah Howard	+0.0
32	21-11	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.0
33	22-11	CANISI	UMBC×3	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.0
34	23-11	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Hannah Kos		+0.0
35	24-11	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.0
36	24-12	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.0
37	24-13	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Alissa Grant		+0.0
38	25-13	CANISI	UMBC	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Claudia Llamas, Alissa Grant	+0.1
2	1-1	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
3	2-1	CANISI	UMBC	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.1
4	2-2	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
5	2-3	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.2
6	3-3	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
7	3-4	UMBC	CANISI	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.1
8	4-4	CANISI	UMBC×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.1
9	5-4	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.1
10	6-4	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Julia Lenik	blk Isabel Ostvig, Grace Larrivee	+0.1
11	6-5	UMBC	CANISI×3	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.1
12	6-6	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.2
13	6-7	CANISI	CANISI×3	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs	blk Emily Helmers, Hannah Kos	+0.2
14	7-7	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Grace Larrivee	+0.1
15	7-8	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Madison Cowan	set Anna Rich	+0.2
16	8-8	CANISI	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
17	9-8	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Hannah Howard	+0.2
18	10-8	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
19	10-9	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Emily Helmers	set Anna Rich	+0.1
20	11-9	CANISI	UMBC×4	Kill	Grace Larrivee	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
21	12-9	UMBC	UMBC×4	Bad set	McKenna Corcoran		+0.1
22	13-9	UMBC	UMBC×4	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Alissa Grant, Claudia Llamas	+0.1
23	14-9	UMBC	UMBC×4	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
24	14-10	UMBC	CANISI×4	Kill	McKenna Corcoran	set Anna Rich	+0.0
25	14-11	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Alissa Grant		+0.1
26	14-12	CANISI	CANISI×4	Attack err	Natalie Harris		+0.1
27	14-13	CANISI	CANISI×4	Ace	CANISI server	aced Team	+0.2
28	15-13	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Hannah Howard	+0.1
29	15-14	UMBC	CANISI	Attack err	Natalie Harris	blk Emma Isroff, McKenna Corcoran	+0.2
30	16-14	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Hannah Howard	+0.2
31	17-14	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Emma Isroff		+0.2
32	17-15	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
33	18-15	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.1
34	18-16	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.1
35	19-16	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Isabel Ostvig	set Natalie Harris	+0.1
36	20-16	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Julia Lenik		+0.1
37	20-17	UMBC	CANISI	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.1
38	20-18	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Claudia Llamas	blk Emily Helmers, Hannah Kos	+0.2
39	21-18	CANISI	UMBC	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.2
40	22-18	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.1
41	22-19	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Hannah Kos	set Anna Rich	+0.1
42	22-20	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Natalie Harris	blk Hannah Kos, McKenna Corcoran	+0.2
43	23-20	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.2
44	23-21	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.1
45	24-21	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Natalie Harris	set Isabel Ostvig	+0.2
46	24-22	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Emma Isroff	+0.1
47	25-22	CANISI	UMBC	Attack err	Julia Lenik	blk Alissa Grant, Isabel Ostvig	+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	CANISI	UMBC×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer	blk Hannah Dobbs, Grace Larrivee	+0.0
2	2-0	UMBC	UMBC×3	Ace	UMBC server	aced Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
3	3-0	UMBC	UMBC×3	Ace	UMBC server	aced Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
4	3-1	UMBC	CANISI×3	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.0
5	3-2	CANISI	CANISI×3	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
6	3-3	CANISI	CANISI×3	Ace	CANISI server	aced Hannah Howard	+0.1
7	4-3	CANISI	UMBC×4	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Megan Hunter	+0.0
8	5-3	UMBC	UMBC×4	Ace	UMBC server	aced Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
9	6-3	UMBC	UMBC×4	Kill	Alissa Grant	set Megan Hunter	+0.0
10	7-3	UMBC	UMBC×4	Ace	UMBC server	aced Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
11	7-4	UMBC	CANISI×3	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
12	7-5	CANISI	CANISI×3	Attack err	Claudia Llamas		+0.0
13	7-6	CANISI	CANISI×3	Bad set	Megan Hunter		+0.1
14	8-6	CANISI	UMBC	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
15	9-6	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Alissa Grant	set McKenna Corcoran	+0.0
16	9-7	UMBC	CANISI	Serve err	UMBC server		+0.0
17	10-7	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Megan Hunter	+0.0
18	11-7	UMBC	UMBC	Attack err	Emma Isroff	blk Hannah Dobbs, Alissa Grant	+0.0
19	11-8	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
20	12-8	CANISI	UMBC×3	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
21	13-8	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Grace Larrivee	set Hannah Howard	+0.0
22	14-8	UMBC	UMBC×3	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Megan Hunter	+0.0
23	14-9	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Julia Lenik	set Anna Rich	+0.0
24	14-10	CANISI	CANISI	Attack err	Hannah Dobbs		+0.0
25	15-10	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs	set Megan Hunter	+0.0
26	16-10	UMBC	UMBC	Kill	Hannah Dobbs		+0.0
27	16-11	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.0
28	17-11	CANISI	UMBC×5	Serve err	CANISI server		+0.0
29	18-11	UMBC	UMBC×5	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Megan Hunter	+0.0
30	19-11	UMBC	UMBC×5	Kill	Claudia Llamas	set Hannah Howard	+0.0
31	20-11	UMBC	UMBC×5	Ace	UMBC server	aced Team	+0.0
32	21-11	UMBC	UMBC×5	Attack err	McKenna Corcoran		+0.0
33	21-12	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Anna Rich	+0.0
34	21-13	CANISI	CANISI	Kill	Emma Isroff	set Brenda Reynaga	+0.0
35	22-13	CANISI	UMBC×3	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Megan Hunter	+0.0
36	23-13	UMBC	UMBC×3	Attack err	Alli Farmer		+0.0
37	24-13	UMBC	UMBC×3	Bad set	Kenslie Warmbrodt		+0.0
38	24-14	UMBC	CANISI	Kill	Alli Farmer	set Kenslie Warmbrodt	+0.0
39	24-15	CANISI	CANISI	Ace	CANISI server	aced Elyse VanLandingham	+0.0
40	25-15	CANISI	UMBC	Kill	Jalynn Brown	set Ema Djordjevic	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UMBC first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.