Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Seattle U def. Pacific 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Pacific 74.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 1:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Seattle U won at Pacific 3-1 (21-25, 25-13, 25-23, 25-18) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Teagan Melton led Seattle U with 13 kills; Pacific's Nicole Zake had a match-high 14.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
SEATTL212525253
PACIF251323181

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Grace Jones, and Seattle U needed each of them.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Seattle U's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pacific went in at 75% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Seattle U 0–0 Pacific

    From here Seattle U won 25 of 38 rallies to take the set 25–13.

    Seattle U 14% → 30%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Seattle U 20–20 Pacific

    Seattle U scored 4 straight to go from 20–20 to a 24–20 lead. The match swung to Seattle U.

    Seattle U 34% → 59%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Seattle U 15–13 Pacific

    Seattle U scored 5 straight to stretch a 15–13 lead to 20–13.

    Seattle U 76% → 98%

Pacific above 50Seattle U belowMax swing 11.2%

Seattle UPacific

Sideout %
Seattle U 57.5·Pacific 47.4
Break %
Seattle U 52.6·Pacific 42.5
Hitting
Seattle U .230·Pacific .145
Longest run
Seattle U 7·Pacific 5

Teagan Melton
4 kills inside the turning points, 13 K and .385 for the match (14.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Pacific above 50 · Seattle U below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.2% SEATTLrally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.2% to Seattle U — set 3, SEATTL 25-23 PACIF. Kill by Teagan Melton (set by Grace Jones). PACIF win probability 51% → 40%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SEATTL 40.5%59.5% PACIF

Seattle U wins

3-0
8.9%
3-1
14.8%
3-2
16.8%

Pacific wins

3-0
16.9%
3-1
22.7%
3-2
19.9%
SEATTL break %
43.4% vs this opp
PACIF break %
45.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Teagan MeltonKill+11.2%

    Kill by Teagan Melton (set by Grace Jones)

    Set 3 · SEATTL 25-23 PACIF · SEATTL 49% → 60%

  2. 02

    Adeline Sirbu stuffed by Hailey McEllrath

    Set 3 · SEATTL 22-20 PACIF · SEATTL 40% → 48%

  3. 03
    Teagan MeltonBlock+6.7%

    Nicole Zake stuffed by Teagan Melton

    Set 3 · SEATTL 23-20 PACIF · SEATTL 48% → 54%

  4. 04
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+6.4%

    Point Seattle U (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 3 · SEATTL 20-18 PACIF · SEATTL 38% → 45%

  5. 05

    Kill by Hannah Koester (set by Alessia Couchond)

    Set 3 · SEATTL 20-20 PACIF · PACIF 59% → 66%

  6. 06
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+6.1%

    Point Seattle U (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 3 · SEATTL 19-18 PACIF · SEATTL 32% → 38%

  7. 07
    Chloee LeslieAttack error+6.1%

    Attack error by Chloee Leslie

    Set 3 · SEATTL 24-23 PACIF · PACIF 45% → 51%

  8. 08

    Kill by Hannah Koester

    Set 3 · SEATTL 21-20 PACIF · SEATTL 34% → 40%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413326.38500050111.514.5
49014.64300010052.511.5
44112.25001210153.58.5
46725-.04000270031.57.5
4000–1940900004
4000–011510001
48324.2080003004210
46420.100100350217
4104.2501931400004
4001.0004201300002
2000–000220000
Team totals4718126.230431165392201296
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414845.13304091010.518.5
49218.3890000002110
44517-.059033310218
4103.333250240010.51.5
34314.071000100004
3026-.333000400211
413330.3330001000013
4002.000000730000
4000–403100000
4000–5011610000
3000–600100000
2011-1.000020200002
2012-.500000010000
1000–000000000
Team totals4525138.1454099491108479

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Seattle U vs Pacific

Season series · Seattle U leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 SEATTL · PACIF 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 SEATTLPACIF 5

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 7 SEATTLPACIF 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 SEATTLPACIF 4

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 5 SEATTLPACIF 2

Bars above the line = Pacific leads, below = Seattle U leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Seattle U

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%2/2
67%4/6
2
50%2/4
0%0/2
3
67%2/3
0%0/2
4
50%1/2
83%5/6
5
100%1/1
86%6/7
6
100%1/1
50%1/2
All
69%9/13
64%16/25

Pacific

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%2/6
0%0/1
2
100%2/2
0%0/2
3
100%2/2
50%2/4
4
17%1/6
33%1/3
5
14%1/7
50%1/2
6
50%1/2
0%0/1
All
36%9/25
31%4/13

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#SEATTL-PACIFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0PACIFSEATTLBlockedVanessa Zussinoblk Teagan Melton, Hailey McEllrath+1.6
21-1SEATTLPACIFKillChloee Leslie+1.5
31-2PACIFPACIFBlockedChloee Leslieblk Vanessa Zussino, Adeline Sirbu+1.9
42-2PACIFSEATTLKillHailey McEllrath+1.5
52-3SEATTLPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+1.5
63-3PACIFSEATTL×4Serve errPacific+1.6
74-3SEATTLSEATTL×4BlockedVanessa Zussinoblk Chloee Leslie, Lexi Jones+2.2
85-3SEATTLSEATTL×4AceSeattle U+2.3
96-3SEATTL
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
106-4SEATTLPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+1.6
116-5PACIFPACIFBlockedEllie Prindlblk Alessia Couchond, Ellie Prindl+2.2
127-5PACIFSEATTL×4Bad setAlessia Couchond+1.9
138-5SEATTLSEATTL×4Attack errNicole Zake+2.5
149-5SEATTLSEATTL×4BlockedNicole Zakeblk Orinayo Olukanmi, Lexi Jones+2.5
1510-5SEATTLSEATTL×4KillLexi Jonesset Lexi Jones+2.3
1610-6SEATTLPACIFBall handlingLexi Jones+1.4
1710-7PACIFPACIFAcePacific+2.2
1811-7PACIFSEATTLKillTamara Ungaset Bella Jones+2.0
1911-8SEATTLPACIF×3KillJulia Porathset Chloe Giehtbrock+1.7
2011-9PACIFPACIF×3Attack errOrinayo Olukanmi+2.4
2111-10PACIFPACIF×3Attack errTamara Unga+2.6
2212-10PACIFSEATTLKillTamara Ungaset Janae Demant+2.2
2312-11SEATTLPACIFKillVanessa Zussino+2.0
2413-11PACIFSEATTLServe errPacific+2.3
2513-12SEATTLPACIF×4KillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+2.1
2613-13PACIFPACIF×4Attack errChloee Leslie+2.9
2713-14PACIFPACIF×4KillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+2.8
28–2914-15SEATTL · PACIF
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.7
3015-15SEATTLSEATTL×3Serve errSeattle U+3.0
3116-15SEATTLSEATTL×3KillChloee Leslieset Bella Jones+3.4
3216-16SEATTLPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+2.5
3316-17PACIFPACIFAcePacificaced Elaina Duong+3.3
3417-17PACIFSEATTL×3KillOrinayo Olukanmiset Bella Jones+2.6
3518-17SEATTLSEATTL×3Attack errEllie Prindl+3.9
36–3719-18SEATTL · PACIF
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.4
3819-19PACIFPACIF×5KillOrinayo Olukanmi+4.0
3919-20PACIFPACIF×5AcePacificaced Tamara Unga+4.2
4019-21PACIFPACIF×5KillJulia Porathset Chloe Giehtbrock+3.9
4119-22PACIFPACIF×5KillJulia Porathset Chloe Giehtbrock+3.0
4220-22PACIFSEATTLKillOrinayo Olukanmiset Janae Demant+1.6
4321-22SEATTLSEATTLKillOrinayo Olukanmiset Bella Jones+3.5
4421-23SEATTLPACIF×3Attack errChloee Leslieset Bella Jones+3.6
4521-24PACIFPACIF×3Attack errTamara Unga+3.2
4621-25PACIFPACIF×3Attack errTamara Unga+1.2
Set 2
11-0SEATTLSEATTL×4KillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+1.6
22-0SEATTLSEATTL×4BlockedSeattle Ublk Lexi Jones, Chloee Leslie+1.7
33-0SEATTLSEATTL×4Attack errVanessa Zussino+1.8
44-0SEATTLSEATTL×4Attack errVanessa Zussino+1.8
54-1SEATTLPACIFServe errSeattle U+1.2
65-1PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Grace Jones+1.4
75-2SEATTLPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Isabella Gutierrez+1.2
86-2PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Bella Jones+1.4
96-3SEATTLPACIFServe errSeattle U+1.2
106-4PACIFPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+1.7
117-4PACIFSEATTL×3Serve errPacific+1.5
128-4SEATTLSEATTL×3AceSeattle Uaced Vanessa Zussino+1.9
139-4SEATTLSEATTL×3AceSeattle U+1.8
149-5SEATTLPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Isabella Gutierrez+1.1
159-6PACIFPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Chloe Giehtbrock+1.7
1610-6PACIFSEATTL×7KillOrinayo Olukanmi+1.6
1711-6SEATTLSEATTL×7KillChloee Leslieset Grace Jones+1.9
1812-6SEATTLSEATTL×7KillHailey McEllrath+1.7
1913-6SEATTLSEATTL×7KillTeagan Meltonset Tamara Unga+1.4
2014-6SEATTLSEATTL×7AceSeattle Uaced Isabella Gutierrez+1.1
2115-6SEATTLSEATTL×7AceSeattle Uaced Gracie Armato+0.8
2216-6SEATTLSEATTL×7KillTamara Ungaset Grace Jones+0.6
2316-7SEATTLPACIFKillAlessia Couchond+0.2
2417-7PACIFSEATTLAttack errGracie Armatoset Teagan Melton+0.4
2518-7SEATTLSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Janae Demant+0.3
2618-8SEATTLPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.1
2719-8PACIFSEATTLAttack errVanessa Zussinoset Isabella Gutierrez+0.2
2819-9SEATTLPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.1
2920-9PACIFSEATTLKillNicole Zake+0.2
3020-10SEATTLPACIF×3KillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.1
3120-11PACIFPACIF×3KillNicole Zake+0.1
3220-12PACIFPACIF×3KillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.2
3321-12PACIFSEATTLServe errPacific+0.3
3421-13SEATTLPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.1
3522-13PACIFSEATTL×4KillOrinayo Olukanmiset Bella Jones+0.2
3623-13SEATTLSEATTL×4BlockedNicole Zakeblk Hailey McEllrath, Orinayo Olukanmi+0.1
3724-13SEATTLSEATTL×4KillTamara Unga·
3825-13SEATTLSEATTL×4Attack errNicole Zake·
Set 3
10-1PACIFPACIFAttack errTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+2.7
21-1PACIFSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+2.2
31-2SEATTLPACIFBlockedChloee Leslieblk Vanessa Zussino, Adeline Sirbu+2.1
42-2PACIFSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+2.2
52-3SEATTLPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+2.2
63-3PACIFSEATTL×3Serve errPacific+2.3
74-3SEATTLSEATTL×3Attack errSuzanne Kemle+3.2
85-3SEATTLSEATTL×3BlockedNicole Zakeblk Orinayo Olukanmi, Lexi Jones+3.4
95-4SEATTLPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+2.4
105-5PACIFPACIFAcePacificaced Tamara Unga+3.2
116-5PACIFSEATTLKillOrinayo Olukanmiset Bella Jones+2.6
126-6SEATTLPACIFKillJulia Porathset Chloe Giehtbrock+2.5
137-6PACIFSEATTL×3BlockedHannah Koesterblk Orinayo Olukanmi, Hailey McEllrath+2.7
148-6SEATTLSEATTL×3BlockedJulia Porathblk Hailey McEllrath, Tamara Unga+3.7
159-6SEATTLSEATTL×3KillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+3.8
169-7SEATTLPACIFAttack errHailey McEllrathset Grace Jones+2.5
1710-7PACIFSEATTLKillHailey McEllrathset Grace Jones+3.0
1811-7SEATTLSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Janae Demant+3.8
1911-8SEATTLPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+2.4
2012-8PACIFSEATTLKillChloee Leslieset Grace Jones+3.0
2112-9SEATTLPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+2.4
2212-10PACIFPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+3.6
2313-10PACIFSEATTLKillChloee Leslieset Grace Jones+3.3
2414-10SEATTLSEATTLAceSeattle Uaced Nicole Zake+4.0
2514-11SEATTLPACIFServe errSeattle U+2.5
2615-11PACIFSEATTLServe errPacific+3.2
2715-12SEATTLPACIF×3KillNicole Zakeset Gwendolyn Hansen+2.5
2815-13PACIFPACIF×3AcePacificaced Tamara Unga+3.9
2915-14PACIFPACIF×3KillJulia Porathset Gwendolyn Hansen+4.3
3016-14PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Bella Jones+3.9
3116-15SEATTLPACIF×4KillHannah Koesterset Gwendolyn Hansen+3.4
3216-16PACIFPACIF×4AcePacificaced Clara Garcia+4.8
3316-17PACIFPACIF×4Attack errOrinayo Olukanmi+4.8
3416-18PACIFPACIF×4AcePacificaced Clara Garcia+4.5
3517-18PACIFSEATTL×4KillTamara Ungaset Bella Jones+3.3
3618-18SEATTLSEATTL×4AceSeattle U+5.3
37–3820-18SEATTL 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+12.5
3920-19SEATTLPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Gwendolyn Hansen+4.1
4020-20PACIFPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Alessia Couchond+6.4
4121-20PACIFSEATTL×4KillHannah Koester+5.8
4222-20SEATTLSEATTL×4BlockedAdeline Sirbublk Hailey McEllrath+7.8
4323-20SEATTLSEATTL×4BlockedNicole Zakeblk Teagan Melton+6.7
4424-20SEATTLSEATTL×4AceSeattle Uaced Ella Gridley+4.2
4524-21SEATTLPACIF×3KillTeagan Melton+1.0
4624-22PACIFPACIF×3KillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+2.8
4724-23PACIFPACIF×3Attack errChloee Leslie+6.1
4825-23PACIFSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+11.2
Set 4
11-0SEATTLSEATTLKillHailey McEllrathset Grace Jones+3.9
21-1SEATTLPACIFKillJulia Porathset Alessia Couchond+2.9
32-1PACIFSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+3.1
42-2SEATTLPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+2.9
53-2PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Bella Jones+3.2
63-3SEATTLPACIFKillJulia Porathset Alessia Couchond+3.0
74-3PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Bella Jones+3.3
84-4SEATTLPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Isabella Gutierrez+3.1
94-5PACIFPACIFAcePacificaced Tamara Unga+4.0
105-5PACIFSEATTLKillOrinayo Olukanmiset Bella Jones+3.2
116-5SEATTL
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.5
126-6SEATTLPACIFAttack errChloee Leslieset Grace Jones+3.3
137-6PACIFSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+3.6
148-6SEATTLSEATTLAceSeattle U+4.9
158-7SEATTLPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+3.4
168-8PACIFPACIFAttack errTeagan Melton+4.6
179-8PACIFSEATTLServe errPacific+3.8
189-9SEATTLPACIFKillJulia Porathset Alessia Couchond+3.6
1910-9PACIFSEATTLKillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+3.9
2010-10SEATTLPACIFAttack errOrinayo Olukanmiset Pacific+3.7
2111-10PACIFSEATTL×4Serve errPacific+4.1
2212-10SEATTLSEATTL×4KillBella Jones+5.6
2313-10SEATTLSEATTL×4KillTamara Ungaset Bella Jones+5.6
2414-10SEATTLSEATTL×4KillOrinayo Olukanmiset Bella Jones+5.3
2514-11SEATTLPACIFAttack errTamara Ungaset Julia Porath+3.3
2615-11PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Bella Jones+4.3
2715-12SEATTLPACIFKillGwendolyn Hansen+3.3
2815-13PACIFPACIFAcePacificaced Tamara Unga+5.1
2916-13PACIFSEATTL×5Serve errPacific+4.9
3017-13SEATTLSEATTL×5Attack errEllie Prindl+5.7
3118-13SEATTLSEATTL×5KillTeagan Meltonset Grace Jones+4.9
3219-13SEATTLSEATTL×5Attack errNicole Zake+3.7
3320-13SEATTLSEATTL×5AceSeattle Uaced Ella Gridley+2.5
3420-14SEATTLPACIFBlockedTeagan Meltonblk Nicole Zake, Ellie Prindl+1.0
3521-14PACIFSEATTLAttack errAdeline Sirbuset Grace Jones+1.7
3621-15SEATTLPACIFServe errSeattle U+0.8
3722-15PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Grace Jones+1.4
3822-16SEATTLPACIFKillGwendolyn Hansen+0.6
3923-16PACIFSEATTLKillLexi Jonesset Grace Jones+1.1
4024-16SEATTLSEATTLKillChloee Leslieset Bella Jones+0.5
4124-17SEATTLPACIFKillJulia Porathset Isabella Gutierrez+0.1
4224-18PACIFPACIFKillJulia Porathset Isabella Gutierrez+0.2
4325-18PACIFSEATTLBlockedJulia Porathblk Chloee Leslie, Lexi Jones+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Seattle U first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).