FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMEAC

3:0

HomeSWAC

UMES def. Mississippi Val. 3–0

(25-13, 25-20, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UMES	25	25	25	3
MS VAL	13	20	14	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MS VAL above 50 · UMES below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Mississippi Val. — set 1, UMES 3-3 MS VAL. Bad set by Jayda Hutchins. MS VAL win probability 6% → 7%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UMES 93.2%6.8% MS VAL

UMES wins

3-0

50.7%

3-1

30.8%

3-2

11.6%

Mississippi Val. wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

2.0%

3-2

4.0%

UMES break %: 51.5% vs this opp
MS VAL break %: 40.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jayda HutchinsBad set+0.8%
Bad set by Jayda Hutchins
Set 1 · UMES 3-3 MS VAL · MS VAL 6% → 7%
02
MS VAL serverAce+0.8%
Mississippi Val. ace on Arianna Warner Torres
Set 2 · UMES 6-8 MS VAL · MS VAL 4% → 5%
03
MS VAL serverAce+0.8%
Mississippi Val. ace on Alivia Proctor
Set 1 · UMES 7-6 MS VAL · MS VAL 6% → 6%
04
MS VAL serverAce+0.8%
Mississippi Val. ace on Arianna Warner Torres
Set 2 · UMES 12-12 MS VAL · MS VAL 3% → 4%
05
Jayda HutchinsKill+0.7%
Kill by Jayda Hutchins (set by Jocelyn Torres)
Set 2 · UMES 23-20 MS VAL · UMES 98% → 98%
06
Aniyah MooreKill+0.7%
Kill by Aniyah Moore (set by Kameryn Browne)
Set 2 · UMES 13-13 MS VAL · MS VAL 3% → 4%
07
UMES serverAce+0.7%
UMES ace on Aubrie Walker
Set 2 · UMES 15-13 MS VAL · UMES 97% → 97%
08
Taylor WootenAttack error+0.7%
Taylor Wooten stuffed by Gabrielle McCoy & Dynasty Andrews
Set 1 · UMES 5-3 MS VAL · UMES 94% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UMESaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Karielys MelendezOH	3	13	3	22	.455	2	2	2	7	0	0	0	0	15
7Jayda HutchinsS	3	4	2	13	.154	23	5	1	5	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
9Rayah HowellMB	3	8	4	16	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
23Malaysia ShawMB	3	6	3	14	.214	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
3Kate - Linh EdenOH	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
30Dynasty AndrewsMB	2	4	0	6	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	6.5
18Gabrielle McCoyOPP	3	4	1	10	.300	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	5
5Alivia ProctorDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
1Arianna Warner TorresS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	7	2	0	0	0	1
4Jocelyn TorresS	2	0	0	0	–	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
8Kyra BradfordOH	1	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
10Lila BryantL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	13	87	.345	42	10	7	35	5	1	12	7	75

Mississippi Val.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Taylor WootenOH	3	4	1	19	.158	1	2	0	7	2	1	0.5	6.5
6Aniyah MooreOH	3	5	3	13	.154	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
10Madison ConleyMB	3	4	3	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
12Kameryn BrowneS	3	1	3	4	-.500	16	1	1	3	0	1	0.5	2.5
15Aubrie WalkerOH	3	1	5	15	-.267	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	2
4Erin MimsOH	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Brooklyn BruntMB	3	5	4	14	.071	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
14Dashaun PinesetteMB	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	3	3	0	0	1
1Ashlynn HawkinsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
8Taylor WilsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
Team totals		20	19	76	.013	19	5	2	24	10	8	4	47

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 UMES · MS VAL 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 8 UMESMS VAL 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 UMESMS VAL 4

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 6 UMESMS VAL 3

Bars above the line = Mississippi Val. leads, below = UMES leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UMES

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%6/11	67%8/12
2	75%6/8	33%3/9
3	60%6/10	65%11/17
4	71%5/7	38%3/8
5	67%4/6	73%11/15
6	57%4/7	67%8/12
All	63%31/49	60%44/73

Mississippi Val.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	50%6/12
2	43%6/14	25%2/8
3	45%5/11	50%6/12
4	31%4/13	17%1/6
5	36%4/11	43%3/7
6	40%4/10	0%0/4
All	40%29/73	37%18/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	UMES-MS VAL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MS VAL	UMES	Attack err	Kameryn Browne	blk Malaysia Shaw, Rayah Howell	+0.6
2	2-0	UMES	UMES	Attack err	Aubrie Walker	blk Dynasty Andrews, Jayda Hutchins	+0.6
3	2-1	UMES	MS VAL	Serve err	UMES server		+0.6
4	3-1	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Karielys Melendez	+0.5
5	3-2	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.6
6	3-3	MS VAL	MS VAL	Bad set	Jayda Hutchins		+0.8
7	4-3	MS VAL	UMES×3	Kill	Gabrielle McCoy	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.6
8	5-3	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Taylor Wooten	blk Gabrielle McCoy, Dynasty Andrews	+0.7
9	6-3	UMES	UMES×3	Kill	Gabrielle McCoy	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.6
10	6-4	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.5
11	7-4	MS VAL	UMES	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.5
12	7-5	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.5
13	7-6	MS VAL	MS VAL	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Alivia Proctor	+0.8
14	8-6	MS VAL	UMES×4	Kill	Gabrielle McCoy	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.6
15	9-6	UMES	UMES×4	Ace	UMES server	aced Taylor Wilson	+0.6
16	10-6	UMES	UMES×4	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.5
17	11-6	UMES	UMES×4	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.4
18	11-7	UMES	MS VAL	Serve err	UMES server		+0.3
19	12-7	MS VAL	UMES×3	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.4
20	13-7	UMES	UMES×3	Ace	UMES server	aced Team	+0.3
21	14-7	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Aubrie Walker	blk Malaysia Shaw	+0.2
22	14-8	UMES	MS VAL×4	Serve err	UMES server		+0.2
23	14-9	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Attack err	Malaysia Shaw		+0.3
24	14-10	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Team	+0.4
25	14-11	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Attack err	Rayah Howell		+0.6
26	15-11	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Alivia Proctor	set Karielys Melendez	+0.5
27	16-11	UMES	UMES	Ace	UMES server	aced Dashaun Pinesette	+0.5
28	16-12	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.3
29	17-12	MS VAL	UMES×8	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.4
30	18-12	UMES	UMES×8	Ace	UMES server	aced Dashaun Pinesette	+0.3
31	19-12	UMES	UMES×8	Attack err	Aniyah Moore	blk Dynasty Andrews, Gabrielle McCoy	+0.2
32	20-12	UMES	UMES×8	Ace	UMES server	aced Team	+0.1
33	21-12	UMES	UMES×8	Attack err	Aniyah Moore		+0.0
34	22-12	UMES	UMES×8	Kill	Dynasty Andrews	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
35	23-12	UMES	UMES×8	Kill	Dynasty Andrews		+0.0
36	24-12	UMES	UMES×8	Kill	Dynasty Andrews	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
37	24-13	UMES	MS VAL	Attack err	Rayah Howell		+0.0
38	25-13	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UMES	UMES×3	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.5
2	2-0	UMES	UMES×3	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.4
3	3-0	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.3
4	3-1	UMES	MS VAL	Serve err	UMES server		+0.3
5	3-2	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Rayah Howell		+0.4
6	4-2	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.4
7	4-3	UMES	MS VAL×3	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.4
8	4-4	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Rayah Howell		+0.5
9	4-5	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Kill	Madison Conley	set Kameryn Browne	+0.6
10	5-5	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.5
11	5-6	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.6
12	6-6	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.5
13	6-7	UMES	MS VAL	Attack err	Karielys Melendez		+0.6
14	6-8	MS VAL	MS VAL	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Arianna Warner Torres	+0.8
15	7-8	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.6
16	8-8	UMES	UMES	Attack err	Madison Conley		+0.7
17	8-9	UMES	MS VAL	Serve err	UMES server		+0.7
18	9-9	MS VAL	UMES×3	Kill	Dynasty Andrews	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.6
19	10-9	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.6
20	11-9	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Aniyah Moore	blk Dynasty Andrews, Jayda Hutchins	+0.6
21	11-10	UMES	MS VAL	Attack err	Jayda Hutchins		+0.5
22	12-10	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.5
23	12-11	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.5
24	12-12	MS VAL	MS VAL	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Arianna Warner Torres	+0.8
25	13-12	MS VAL	UMES	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.6
26	13-13	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.7
27	14-13	MS VAL	UMES×4	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.7
28	15-13	UMES	UMES×4	Ace	UMES server	aced Aubrie Walker	+0.7
29	16-13	UMES	UMES×4	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.6
30	17-13	UMES	UMES×4	Ace	UMES server	aced Aubrie Walker	+0.4
31	17-14	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.3
32	18-14	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Gabrielle McCoy	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.4
33	18-15	UMES	MS VAL	Attack err	Malaysia Shaw	blk Taylor Wooten, Madison Conley	+0.3
34	19-15	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.4
35	20-15	UMES	UMES	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.3
36	20-16	UMES	MS VAL	Serve err	UMES server		+0.2
37	21-16	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.3
38	22-16	UMES	UMES	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.2
39	22-17	UMES	MS VAL×4	Kill	Kameryn Browne	set Taylor Wooten	+0.1
40	22-18	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
41	22-19	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Team	+0.3
42	22-20	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Attack err	Karielys Melendez		+0.6
43	23-20	MS VAL	UMES×3	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.7
44	24-20	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt	blk Dynasty Andrews, Jayda Hutchins	+0.4
45	25-20	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	MS VAL	UMES	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.2
2	2-0	UMES	UMES	Bad set	Kameryn Browne		+0.2
3	2-1	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
4	3-1	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.2
5	4-1	UMES	UMES	Ace	UMES server	aced Taylor Wooten	+0.2
6	4-2	UMES	MS VAL	Serve err	UMES server		+0.1
7	4-3	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Gabrielle McCoy	blk Madison Conley, Brooklyn Brunt	+0.2
8	5-3	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.2
9	5-4	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
10	6-4	MS VAL	UMES×6	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.2
11	7-4	UMES	UMES×6	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.2
12	8-4	UMES	UMES×6	Attack err	Madison Conley		+0.2
13	9-4	UMES	UMES×6	Kill	Kyra Bradford	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.1
14	10-4	UMES	UMES×6	Attack err	Madison Conley		+0.1
15	11-4	UMES	UMES×6	Attack err	Kameryn Browne		+0.1
16	11-5	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
17	11-6	MS VAL	MS VAL	Bad set	Jayda Hutchins		+0.1
18	12-6	MS VAL	UMES×3	Kill	Kyra Bradford	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.1
19	13-6	UMES	UMES×3	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.1
20	14-6	UMES	UMES×3	Ace	UMES server	aced Dashaun Pinesette	+0.0
21	14-7	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Madison Conley	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
22	15-7	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.0
23	16-7	UMES	UMES	Ace	UMES server	aced Taylor Wooten	+0.0
24	16-8	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
25	17-8	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.0
26	17-9	UMES	MS VAL	Attack err	Jayda Hutchins	blk Brooklyn Brunt, Aniyah Moore	+0.0
27	18-9	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Jocelyn Torres	+0.0
28	18-10	UMES	MS VAL×3	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
29	18-11	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Malaysia Shaw		+0.0
30	18-12	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Kill	Madison Conley	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
31	19-12	MS VAL	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
32	20-12	UMES	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
33	20-13	UMES	MS VAL	Kill	Madison Conley	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
34	20-14	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Karielys Melendez	blk Madison Conley, Kameryn Browne	+0.0
35	21-14	MS VAL	UMES×5	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
36	22-14	UMES	UMES×5	Attack err	Kameryn Browne		+0.0
37	23-14	UMES	UMES×5	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
38	24-14	UMES	UMES×5	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0
39	25-14	UMES	UMES×5	Kill	Kyra Bradford	set Jayda Hutchins	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UMES first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.