FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

3:0

HomeSWAC

Nicholls def. Mississippi Val. 3–0

(25-14, 25-16, 25-10)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NICHST	25	25	25	3
MS VAL	14	16	10	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MS VAL above 50 · NICHST below

Biggest swing: 0.4% to Mississippi Val. — set 2, NICHST 2-3 MS VAL. Bad set by Maya Schirmer. MS VAL win probability 2% → 2%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NICHST 96.0%4.0% MS VAL

Nicholls wins

3-0

58.5%

3-1

28.7%

3-2

8.8%

Mississippi Val. wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.1%

3-2

2.5%

NICHST break %: 52.9% vs this opp
MS VAL break %: 39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Maya SchirmerBad set+0.4%
Bad set by Maya Schirmer
Set 2 · NICHST 2-3 MS VAL · MS VAL 2% → 2%
02
Brooklyn BruntAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Brooklyn Brunt
Set 1 · NICHST 2-0 MS VAL · NICHST 96% → 97%
03
Kera ArringtonKill+0.4%
Kill by Kera Arrington (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 1 · NICHST 1-0 MS VAL · NICHST 96% → 96%
04
Aubrie WalkerKill+0.4%
Kill by Aubrie Walker (set by Erin Mims)
Set 1 · NICHST 2-1 MS VAL · MS VAL 3% → 4%
05
Zahahrah Edwards-WyllieKill+0.3%
Kill by Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 1 · NICHST 4-1 MS VAL · NICHST 97% → 97%
06
Kera ArringtonKill+0.3%
Kill by Kera Arrington (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 1 · NICHST 3-1 MS VAL · NICHST 96% → 97%
07
NICHST serverAce+0.3%
Nicholls ace on Aubrie Walker
Set 2 · NICHST 4-3 MS VAL · NICHST 98% → 98%
08
NICHST serverService error+0.3%
Nicholls service error
Set 1 · NICHST 4-2 MS VAL · MS VAL 3% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Nichollsaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BLK	PTS
18Kera ArringtonOH	3	12	3	23	.391	0	0	0	1	1	1	13
16Mckenzie MitchellOH	3	7	1	10	.600	0	1	0	5	0	0	8
15Harper HoldenMB	3	5	2	8	.375	0	1	0	3	0	0	6
8Isabella PadillaS	3	2	0	13	.154	31	1	2	6	0	0	3
5Maya SchirmerMB	3	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
2Ava-Claire CalaisS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
3Zahahrah Edwards-WyllieOH	3	7	3	20	.200	0	1	2	0	1	1	9
11Natalia NavarroL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	2	0	1	11	0	0	0
1Lizzie KraftDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	7	0	0	0
9Sydney ValentineOH	2	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Karina SmithL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	9	87	.322	36	4	6	34	2	2	75

Mississippi Val.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
6Aniyah MooreOH	3	5	1	9	.444	1	0	1	0	2	2	7
19Taylor WootenOH	3	4	2	20	.100	1	0	4	1	0	0	4
15Aubrie WalkerOH	3	4	6	13	-.154	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
3Brooklyn BruntMB	3	3	6	13	-.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
4Erin MimsOH	3	0	0	3	.000	9	1	5	0	0	0	0
10Madison ConleyMB	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Hannah St. CroixMB	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
1Ashlynn HawkinsOH	3	0	1	4	-.250	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
12Kameryn BrowneS	3	0	0	3	.000	7	1	3	0	0	0	0
8Taylor WilsonL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	5	0	0	0	0
14Dashaun PinesetteMB	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		19	19	83	.000	19	4	24	4	2	2	40

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 NICHST · MS VAL 3

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 4 NICHSTMS VAL 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 6 NICHSTMS VAL 2

Set 3

25-10

Longest run 8 NICHSTMS VAL 2

Bars above the line = Mississippi Val. leads, below = Nicholls leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Nicholls

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	38%3/8
2	88%7/8	22%2/9
3	60%6/10	67%12/18
4	100%5/5	62%8/13
5	83%5/6	50%5/10
6	100%4/4	73%11/15
All	81%34/42	56%41/73

Mississippi Val.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	25%2/8
2	39%7/18	0%0/7
3	42%5/12	36%4/11
4	42%5/12	17%1/6
5	40%4/10	17%1/6
6	44%4/9	0%0/4
All	44%32/73	19%8/42

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

115 rallies

Rally log

#	NICHST-MS VAL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
2	2-0	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.4
3	2-1	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Erin Mims	+0.4
4	3-1	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
5	4-1	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
6	4-2	NICHST	MS VAL	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.3
7	5-2	MS VAL	NICHST	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.3
8	6-2	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Natalia Navarro	+0.3
9	6-3	NICHST	MS VAL	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.3
10	7-3	MS VAL	NICHST×3	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.2
11	8-3	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
12	9-3	NICHST	NICHST×3	Bad set	Aubrie Walker		+0.2
13	9-4	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Hannah St. Croix	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
14	9-5	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Harper Holden		+0.2
15	10-5	MS VAL	NICHST×4	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
16	11-5	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
17	12-5	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.1
18	13-5	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.1
19	13-6	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
20	14-6	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
21	14-7	NICHST	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Aniyah Moore	+0.1
22	14-8	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Bad set	Isabella Padilla		+0.1
23	14-9	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Harper Holden		+0.2
24	15-9	MS VAL	NICHST	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.2
25	15-10	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.1
26	16-10	MS VAL	NICHST×3	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.2
27	17-10	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
28	18-10	NICHST	NICHST×3	Bad set	Erin Mims		+0.1
29	18-11	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.0
30	18-12	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.1
31	19-12	MS VAL	NICHST	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt	blk Kera Arrington	+0.1
32	20-12	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.1
33	20-13	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.0
34	21-13	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
35	21-14	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
36	22-14	MS VAL	NICHST×4	Attack err	Hannah St. Croix		+0.0
37	23-14	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
38	24-14	NICHST	NICHST×4	Ace	NICHST server	aced Taylor Wooten	+0.0
39	25-14	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.3
2	1-1	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.3
3	2-1	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
4	2-2	NICHST	MS VAL	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell	blk Aniyah Moore	+0.3
5	2-3	MS VAL	MS VAL	Bad set	Maya Schirmer		+0.4
6	3-3	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
7	4-3	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Aubrie Walker	+0.3
8	4-4	NICHST	MS VAL	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.3
9	5-4	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
10	6-4	NICHST	NICHST	Bad set	Kameryn Browne		+0.3
11	6-5	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Hannah St. Croix	set Kameryn Browne	+0.3
12	7-5	MS VAL	NICHST	Bad set	Taylor Wooten		+0.2
13	7-6	NICHST	MS VAL	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.3
14	8-6	MS VAL	NICHST×6	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Natalia Navarro	+0.3
15	9-6	NICHST	NICHST×6	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
16	10-6	NICHST	NICHST×6	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
17	11-6	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.2
18	12-6	NICHST	NICHST×6	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Lizzie Kraft	+0.1
19	13-6	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Ashlynn Hawkins		+0.1
20	13-7	NICHST	MS VAL	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.1
21	14-7	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Lizzie Kraft	+0.1
22	15-7	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Ashlynn Hawkins	+0.1
23	15-8	NICHST	MS VAL	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
24	16-8	MS VAL	NICHST	Bad set	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.0
25	16-9	NICHST	MS VAL	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
26	17-9	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
27	17-10	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Erin Mims	+0.0
28	17-11	MS VAL	MS VAL	Bad set	Kera Arrington		+0.1
29	18-11	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
30	19-11	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Natalia Navarro	+0.0
31	19-12	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
32	20-12	MS VAL	NICHST	Bad set	Kameryn Browne		+0.0
33	20-13	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
34	21-13	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Sydney Valentine	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
35	21-14	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Hannah St. Croix	set Aniyah Moore	+0.0
36	22-14	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
37	23-14	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Aniyah Moore		+0.0
38	23-15	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Taylor Wooten	+0.0
39	24-15	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
40	24-16	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.0
41	25-16	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Ava-Claire Calais	+0.1
2	2-0	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.1
3	2-1	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Erin Mims	+0.1
4	3-1	MS VAL	NICHST	Bad set	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.1
5	4-1	NICHST	NICHST	Bad set	Erin Mims		+0.1
6	4-2	NICHST	MS VAL	Bad set	Isabella Padilla		+0.1
7	4-3	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.1
8	5-3	MS VAL	NICHST	Bad set	Erin Mims		+0.1
9	6-3	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
10	6-4	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Taylor Wilson	+0.1
11	7-4	MS VAL	NICHST×4	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
12	8-4	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
13	9-4	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Hannah St. Croix		+0.1
14	10-4	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Hannah St. Croix		+0.1
15	10-5	NICHST	MS VAL	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.0
16	11-5	MS VAL	NICHST	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.0
17	11-6	NICHST	MS VAL	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
18	12-6	MS VAL	NICHST	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.0
19	12-7	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
20	13-7	MS VAL	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
21	13-8	NICHST	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Erin Mims	+0.0
22	14-8	MS VAL	NICHST×8	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
23	15-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Bad set	Erin Mims		+0.0
24	16-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.0
25	17-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
26	18-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Bad set	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.0
27	19-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Attack err	Taylor Wooten	blk Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	+0.0
28	20-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
29	21-8	NICHST	NICHST×8	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
30	21-9	NICHST	MS VAL	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
31	21-10	MS VAL	MS VAL	Bad set	Kera Arrington		+0.0
32	22-10	MS VAL	NICHST×4	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
33	23-10	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.0
34	24-10	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.0
35	25-10	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Nicholls first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.