FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwaySWAC

0:3

HomeSOUTHLAND

Northwestern St. def. Mississippi Val. 3–0

(25-21, 25-15, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MS VAL	21	15	14	0
NW ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NW ST above 50 · MS VAL below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Mississippi Val. — set 1, MS VAL 4-3 NW ST. Amber Craig stuffed by Taylor Wooten & Madison Conley. NW ST win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MS VAL 3.2%96.8% NW ST

Mississippi Val. wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.8%

3-2

2.0%

Northwestern St. wins

3-0

61.6%

3-1

27.6%

3-2

7.7%

MS VAL break %: 38.1% vs this opp
NW ST break %: 52.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Amber CraigAttack error+0.5%
Amber Craig stuffed by Taylor Wooten & Madison Conley
Set 1 · MS VAL 4-3 NW ST · MS VAL 3% → 4%
02
Taylor WootenAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Taylor Wooten
Set 1 · MS VAL 4-5 NW ST · NW ST 97% → 97%
03
Brooklyn BruntKill+0.4%
Kill by Brooklyn Brunt (set by Erin Mims)
Set 1 · MS VAL 2-1 NW ST · MS VAL 3% → 4%
04
Taylor WootenKill+0.4%
Kill by Taylor Wooten
Set 1 · MS VAL 11-13 NW ST · MS VAL 2% → 3%
05
Aniyah MooreKill+0.4%
Kill by Aniyah Moore (set by Erin Mims)
Set 1 · MS VAL 1-0 NW ST · MS VAL 3% → 4%
06
Brooklyn BruntAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Brooklyn Brunt
Set 1 · MS VAL 2-3 NW ST · NW ST 97% → 97%
07
Anna Claire HebertKill+0.4%
Kill by Anna Claire Hebert (set by Emmarie McFarland)
Set 1 · MS VAL 4-4 NW ST · NW ST 96% → 97%
08
NW ST serverService error+0.4%
Northwestern St. service error
Set 1 · MS VAL 3-3 NW ST · MS VAL 3% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Mississippi Val.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
15Aubrie WalkerOH	3	5	4	17	.059	0	1	1	3	2	2	1	7
19Taylor WootenOH	3	5	6	30	-.033	1	0	1	9	1	3	1.5	6.5
6Aniyah MooreOH	3	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
3Brooklyn BruntMB	3	3	3	16	.000	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	4
10Madison ConleyMB	3	0	0	5	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	1
4Erin MimsOH	3	0	0	0	–	10	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
16Hannah St. CroixMB	3	2	3	17	-.059	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
12Kameryn BrowneS	3	1	0	2	.500	4	0	2	8	0	0	0	1
8Taylor WilsonL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	8	1	0	0	0
1Ashlynn HawkinsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	6	2	0	0	0
14Dashaun PinesetteMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		19	17	97	.021	17	1	6	44	11	16	8	50

Northwestern St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Kenadii WinfreyMB	3	6	0	13	.462	0	3	2	2	0	1	0	1	10
6Amber CraigOH	3	6	1	7	.714	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
26Addison GuyMB	3	3	5	13	-.154	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
16Anna Claire HebertS	3	3	0	4	.750	15	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	4
17Elsie SanchezOH	2	9	4	27	.185	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	11
9Elizabeth MuguruzaOH	1	2	3	10	-.100	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
12Valerie BrownL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	2
18Camila TorquatiS	3	0	2	6	-.333	10	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
2Emmarie McFarlandL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	3	0	1	25	0	0	0	0	1
7Harper CauleyL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
5Gillian Grace WolfOH	2	4	2	16	.125	0	1	0	6	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
3Riley SchubertOH	2	1	2	4	-.250	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
14Ana GjorgjievskaOH	1	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Julia WhitfieldMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Melis OzipekOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	20	110	.145	30	11	8	54	1	2	4	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 MS VAL · NW ST 7

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 MS VALNW ST 5

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 MS VALNW ST 6

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 3 MS VALNW ST 7

Bars above the line = Northwestern St. leads, below = Mississippi Val. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Mississippi Val.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	29%2/7
2	35%6/17	46%6/13
3	43%6/14	14%1/7
4	38%5/13	25%2/8
5	50%4/8	17%1/6
6	57%4/7	60%6/10
All	43%32/74	35%18/51

Northwestern St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	40%4/10
2	60%6/10	70%14/20
3	86%6/7	54%7/13
4	75%6/8	54%7/13
5	40%4/10	67%8/12
6	100%4/4	33%2/6
All	65%33/51	57%42/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	MS VAL-NW ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.4
2	1-1	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3
3	2-1	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Erin Mims	+0.4
4	2-2	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.4
5	2-3	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.4
6	3-3	NW ST	MS VAL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.4
7	4-3	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Amber Craig	blk Taylor Wooten, Madison Conley	+0.5
8	4-4	MS VAL	NW ST×3	Kill	Anna Claire Hebert	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.4
9	4-5	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.4
10	4-6	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.4
11	5-6	NW ST	MS VAL	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.3
12	5-7	MS VAL	NW ST×3	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.3
13	5-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Camila Torquati	+0.3
14	5-9	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Kameryn Browne		+0.3
15	6-9	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Hannah St. Croix	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
16	7-9	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Addison Guy	blk Aniyah Moore, Aubrie Walker	+0.3
17	7-10	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Camila Torquati	+0.3
18	8-10	NW ST	MS VAL	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	blk Aniyah Moore, Hannah St. Croix	+0.3
19	8-11	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Camila Torquati	+0.3
20	9-11	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Erin Mims	+0.3
21	9-12	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3
22	9-13	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3
23	10-13	NW ST	MS VAL	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza	blk Aniyah Moore, Brooklyn Brunt	+0.2
24	11-13	MS VAL	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten		+0.4
25	11-14	MS VAL	NW ST×5	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3
26	11-15	NW ST	NW ST×5	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.3
27	11-16	NW ST	NW ST×5	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.2
28	11-17	NW ST	NW ST×5	Bad set	Madison Conley		+0.2
29	11-18	NW ST	NW ST×5	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Erin Mims	+0.1
30	12-18	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.1
31	12-19	MS VAL	NW ST	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.1
32	12-20	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.0
33	13-20	NW ST	MS VAL	Attack err	Camila Torquati		+0.0
34	14-20	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Addison Guy		+0.1
35	14-21	MS VAL	NW ST	Attack err	Harper Cauley		+0.1
36	14-22	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.0
37	15-22	NW ST	MS VAL×4	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
38	16-22	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+0.0
39	17-22	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	blk Hannah St. Croix, Taylor Wooten	+0.1
40	18-22	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Attack err	Camila Torquati		+0.1
41	18-23	MS VAL	NW ST	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.2
42	19-23	NW ST	MS VAL	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza	blk Aniyah Moore, Aubrie Walker	+0.1
43	19-24	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Aubrie Walker	+0.1
44	20-24	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Erin Mims	+0.0
45	21-24	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.1
46	21-25	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Emmarie McFarland		+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	MS VAL	NW ST×6	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.2
2	0-2	NW ST	NW ST×6	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt		+0.2
3	0-3	NW ST	NW ST×6	Attack err	Aubrie Walker	blk Kenadii Winfrey	+0.2
4	0-4	NW ST	NW ST×6	Ace	NW ST server	aced Aubrie Walker	+0.1
5	0-5	NW ST	NW ST×6	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.1
6	0-6	NW ST	NW ST×6	Ace	NW ST server	aced Ashlynn Hawkins	+0.1
7	1-6	NW ST	MS VAL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.1
8	2-6	MS VAL	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Brooklyn Brunt	+0.1
9	2-7	MS VAL	NW ST	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.1
10	2-8	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.1
11	3-8	NW ST	MS VAL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.1
12	3-9	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.1
13	3-10	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Grace Wolf	set Valerie Brown	+0.1
14	4-10	NW ST	MS VAL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
15	5-10	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Addison Guy		+0.1
16	5-11	MS VAL	NW ST×4	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.1
17	5-12	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.1
18	5-13	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Camila Torquati	+0.0
19	5-14	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.0
20	6-14	NW ST	MS VAL	Attack err	Addison Guy	blk Taylor Wooten, Madison Conley	+0.0
21	6-15	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Camila Torquati	+0.0
22	7-15	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
23	7-16	MS VAL	NW ST	Attack err	Hannah St. Croix	blk Camila Torquati	+0.0
24	7-17	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.0
25	8-17	NW ST	MS VAL×3	Kill	Hannah St. Croix	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
26	9-17	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	blk Brooklyn Brunt, Aniyah Moore	+0.0
27	10-17	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Riley Schubert		+0.0
28	10-18	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
29	11-18	NW ST	MS VAL×3	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
30	12-18	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Riley Schubert		+0.0
31	13-18	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Gillian Grace Wolf		+0.1
32	13-19	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Grace Wolf	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.1
33	13-20	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.1
34	14-20	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
35	14-21	MS VAL	NW ST×3	Kill	Anna Claire Hebert	set Valerie Brown	+0.0
36	14-22	NW ST	NW ST×3	Ace	NW ST server	aced Taylor Wilson	+0.0
37	14-23	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt	blk Addison Guy, Gillian Grace Wolf	+0.0
38	15-23	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.0
39	15-24	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Grace Wolf	set Camila Torquati	+0.0
40	15-25	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NW ST	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Gillian Grace Wolf		+0.1
2	2-0	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Team	+0.2
3	3-0	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Bad set	Emmarie McFarland		+0.2
4	3-1	MS VAL	NW ST×7	Kill	Amber Craig	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.1
5	3-2	NW ST	NW ST×7	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.1
6	3-3	NW ST	NW ST×7	Ace	NW ST server	aced Taylor Wooten	+0.1
7	3-4	NW ST	NW ST×7	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.1
8	3-5	NW ST	NW ST×7	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.1
9	3-6	NW ST	NW ST×7	Kill	Amber Craig	set Ashlynn Hawkins	+0.1
10	3-7	NW ST	NW ST×7	Ace	NW ST server	aced Aubrie Walker	+0.1
11	4-7	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.1
12	4-8	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Anna Claire Hebert		+0.1
13	5-8	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.1
14	5-9	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Addison Guy	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.1
15	5-10	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Hannah St. Croix	blk Camila Torquati, Addison Guy	+0.1
16	6-10	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Kameryn Browne	set Erin Mims	+0.0
17	6-11	MS VAL	NW ST	Attack err	Hannah St. Croix		+0.0
18	7-11	NW ST	MS VAL×3	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Taylor Wooten	+0.0
19	8-11	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Ana Gjorgjievska		+0.1
20	9-11	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Addison Guy		+0.1
21	9-12	MS VAL	NW ST×3	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.1
22	9-13	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Ana Gjorgjievska	set Camila Torquati	+0.1
23	9-14	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Camila Torquati	+0.1
24	10-14	NW ST	MS VAL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
25	10-15	MS VAL	NW ST×4	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Camila Torquati	+0.0
26	10-16	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.0
27	10-17	NW ST	NW ST×4	Ace	NW ST server	aced Ashlynn Hawkins	+0.0
28	10-18	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Aniyah Moore		+0.0
29	11-18	NW ST	MS VAL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
30	11-19	MS VAL	NW ST×3	Kill	Amber Craig	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.0
31	11-20	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Gillian Grace Wolf	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
32	11-21	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.0
33	12-21	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Erin Mims	+0.0
34	12-22	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Riley Schubert	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
35	13-22	NW ST	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Taylor Wilson	+0.0
36	13-23	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Addison Guy	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.0
37	14-23	NW ST	MS VAL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.0
38	14-24	MS VAL	NW ST	Kill	Addison Guy	set Camila Torquati	+0.0
39	14-25	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi Val. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.