Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026

Southern U. def. Mississippi Val. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern U. 94.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southern U. beat visiting Mississippi Val. 3-1 (25-14, 25-10, 23-25, 25-15) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Southern U.'s Sereniti Johnson led with 19 kills, and Najah Harris added 31 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set1234Sets
MS VAL141025151
SOUTHR252523253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Southern U. held Mississippi Val. to .021 hitting.

Win probability never moved more than 1.7 points on one rally; Mississippi Val. topped out at 10% in Set 4. Southern U. went in as RallyIQ's 95% pick.

Mississippi Val.Southern U.
  • Break %+20.4 pts
    41.561.9

    Points won on own serve: 60 of 97 vs 27 of 65. Mississippi Val. sided out 38.1% of the time.

  • Hitting+.203
    .021.224

    59 K / 27 E against 28 K / 25 E.

  • Longest run+4
    48

    Southern U. scored 8 straight in the first set to open the set 8–0. Final score of the set: 25–14.

Southern U. above 50Mississippi Val. belowMax swing 1.7%

Mississippi Val.Southern U.

Aces
Mississippi Val. 2·Southern U. 6
Serve err
Mississippi Val. 5·Southern U. 5
Blocks
Mississippi Val. 6·Southern U. 51 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 6 BA
Digs
Mississippi Val. 51·Southern U. 84

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern U. above 50 · Mississippi Val. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.7% MS VALrally 162 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Mississippi Val. — set 4, MS VAL 6-2 SOUTHR. Attack error by Alayah Wilson. SOUTHR win probability 91% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MS VAL 3.4%96.6% SOUTHR

Mississippi Val. wins

3-0
0.4%
3-1
0.9%
3-2
2.2%

Southern U. wins

3-0
60.6%
3-1
28.0%
3-2
8.0%
MS VAL break %
40.5% vs this opp
SOUTHR break %
54.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Alayah WilsonAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by Alayah Wilson

    Set 4 · MS VAL 6-2 SOUTHR · MS VAL 9% → 10%

  2. 02

    Reagan Robinson stuffed by Aniyah Moore & Taylor Wooten

    Set 4 · MS VAL 4-0 SOUTHR · MS VAL 8% → 10%

  3. 03
    Mariah MottAttack error+1.4%

    Attack error by Mariah Mott

    Set 4 · MS VAL 3-0 SOUTHR · MS VAL 7% → 8%

  4. 04

    Kill by Kameryn Browne (set by Erin Mims)

    Set 3 · MS VAL 25-23 SOUTHR · MS VAL 3% → 4%

  5. 05

    Alayah Wilson stuffed by Hannah St. Croix & Taylor Wooten

    Set 4 · MS VAL 7-5 SOUTHR · MS VAL 6% → 8%

  6. 06
    Braelynn ReeseAttack error+1.4%

    Attack error by Braelynn Reese

    Set 4 · MS VAL 5-2 SOUTHR · MS VAL 7% → 9%

  7. 07

    Kill by Sereniti Johnson (set by Kameryn Browne)

    Set 4 · MS VAL 6-4 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 91% → 92%

  8. 08
    Southern U.Ace+1.3%

    Southern U. ace on Dashaun Pinesette

    Set 4 · MS VAL 6-5 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 92% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410440.15000191031.511.5
48735.029001200008
42317-.05901110132.55.5
42314-.071000000213
4002.000010810001
4037-.4291300000000
43422-.045000200214
4315.400701900003
4003.000001540000
4000–2001500000
1001.000000000000
Team totals2825146.0212225516110664
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419534.412010110010.520.5
48218.33302018010111
47319.21100020111.58.5
4003.0003312400001
36616.00000000010.56.5
3509.55600210010.55.5
41011.0001510700002
4001.0005103110001
3408.500000000215
26414.143100100006
1136-.333000300001
1113.000000000001
1102.500001300001
1037-.429100310000
1002.000000000000
Team totals5927143.224556584226598

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MS VAL · SOUTHR 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 4 MS VALSOUTHR 8

Set 2

10-25

Longest run 2 MS VALSOUTHR 8

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 MS VALSOUTHR 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 4 MS VALSOUTHR 8

Bars above the line = Southern U. leads, below = Mississippi Val. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mississippi Val.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%9/20
42%5/12
2
33%8/24
53%10/19
3
29%5/17
30%3/10
4
31%5/16
50%5/10
5
71%5/7
38%3/8
6
38%5/13
17%1/6
All
38%37/97
42%27/65

Southern U.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%9/22
61%11/18
2
62%8/13
55%11/20
3
67%6/9
65%11/17
4
56%5/9
69%11/16
5
71%5/7
67%10/15
6
100%5/5
55%6/11
All
58%38/65
62%60/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

162 rallies

#MS VAL-SOUTHRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+0.5
20-2SOUTHRSOUTHR×8Attack errErin Mims+0.5
30-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×8Attack errAniyah Moore+0.4
40-4SOUTHRSOUTHR×8Attack errAubrie Walker+0.3
50-5SOUTHRSOUTHR×8BlockedAniyah Mooreblk Mariah Mott, Braelynn Reese+0.3
60-6SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+0.2
70-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+0.2
80-8SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.1
91-8SOUTHRMS VAL×4KillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims+0.1
102-8MS VALMS VAL×4KillTaylor Wootenset Penina Vito+0.2
113-8MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errMariah Mott+0.2
124-8MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errMariah Mott+0.3
134-9MS VALSOUTHR×8Serve errMississippi Val.+0.3
144-10SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.2
154-11SOUTHRSOUTHR×8Attack errTaylor Wooten+0.2
164-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×8AceSouthern U.aced Dashaun Pinesette+0.1
174-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillBraelynn Reeseset Penina Vito+0.1
184-14SOUTHRSOUTHR×8AceSouthern U.aced Dashaun Pinesette+0.1
194-15SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito·
204-16SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito·
215-16SOUTHRMS VALKillAniyah Mooreset Erin Mims·
225-17MS VALSOUTHRKillBraelynn Reeseset Penina Vito·
236-17SOUTHRMS VALAttack errSereniti Johnson·
246-18MS VALSOUTHRKillPaulina Agudelo Marinset Penina Vito·
257-18SOUTHRMS VALAttack errSereniti Johnson·
267-19MS VALSOUTHRKillPaulina Agudelo Marinset Maleah Faust·
278-19SOUTHRMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Taylor Wilson·
288-20MS VALSOUTHR×3KillPaulina Agudelo Marinset Maleah Faust·
298-21SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errTaylor Wooten·
308-22SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillAlyssa Williamsset Maleah Faust·
319-22SOUTHRMS VALServe errSouthern U.·
329-23MS VALSOUTHRKillZaria Nelsonset Najah Harris·
3310-23SOUTHRMS VAL×3Serve errSouthern U.·
3411-23MS VALMS VAL×3Attack errZaria Nelson·
3512-23MS VALMS VAL×3Attack errBraelynn Reese·
3612-24MS VALSOUTHRServe errMississippi Val.·
3713-24SOUTHRMS VALAttack errSereniti Johnson·
3814-24MS VALMS VALBlockedMariah Mottblk Taylor Wooten, Aniyah Moore·
3914-25MS VALSOUTHRKillBraelynn Reeseset Penina Vito·
Set 2
10-1MS VALSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+0.3
21-1SOUTHRMS VALAttack errSereniti Johnson+0.3
32-1MS VALMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Kameryn Browne+0.5
42-2MS VALSOUTHR×6KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+0.4
52-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×6Attack errBrooklyn Brunt+0.4
62-4SOUTHRSOUTHR×6Attack errKameryn Browne+0.3
72-5SOUTHRSOUTHR×6KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+0.3
82-6SOUTHRSOUTHR×6KillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+0.2
92-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×6KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.2
103-7SOUTHRMS VALKillHannah St. Croixset Taylor Wilson+0.2
113-8MS VALSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+0.2
123-9SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errAubrie Walker+0.1
134-9SOUTHRMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.1
145-9MS VALMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims+0.2
155-10MS VALSOUTHR×8KillPaulina Agudelo Marinset Maleah Faust+0.2
165-11SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillAlyssa Williamsset Maleah Faust+0.2
175-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×8Attack errAubrie Walker+0.1
185-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×8BlockedAubrie Walkerblk Alyssa Williams, Paulina Agudelo Marin+0.1
195-14SOUTHRSOUTHR×8AceSouthern U.aced Ashlynn Hawkins+0.1
205-15SOUTHRSOUTHR×8BlockedErin Mimsblk Reagan Robinson·
215-16SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillAlyssa Williamsset Maleah Faust·
225-17SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillReagan Robinsonset Maleah Faust·
236-17SOUTHRMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims·
247-17MS VALMS VALAttack errReagan Robinson·
257-18MS VALSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Maleah Faust·
267-19SOUTHRSOUTHRBlockedErin Mimsblk Braelynn Reese·
278-19SOUTHRMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims·
288-20MS VALSOUTHR×4KillBraelynn Reeseset Maleah Faust·
298-21SOUTHRSOUTHR×4AceSouthern U.aced Dashaun Pinesette·
308-22SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito·
318-23SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Attack errAniyah Moore·
329-23SOUTHRMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims·
339-24MS VALSOUTHRServe errMississippi Val.·
3410-24SOUTHRMS VALAttack errMariah Mott·
3510-25MS VALSOUTHRKillBraelynn Reeseset Penina Vito·
Set 3
11-0SOUTHRMS VALAttack errAlayah Wilson+0.2
21-1MS VALSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Najah Harris+0.2
32-1SOUTHRMS VAL×3BlockedNyla Houltblk Brooklyn Brunt, Hannah St. Croix+0.2
43-1MS VALMS VAL×3KillAubrie Walkerset Kameryn Browne+0.2
54-1MS VALMS VAL×3KillAubrie Walkerset Kameryn Browne+0.3
64-2MS VALSOUTHR×3Serve errMississippi Val.+0.2
74-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errAubrie Walker+0.2
84-4SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errAubrie Walker+0.2
95-4SOUTHRMS VALAttack errElizabeth Lualemaga+0.2
105-5MS VALSOUTHRKillNyla Houltset Elizabeth Lualemaga+0.2
115-6SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errHannah St. Croix+0.2
126-6SOUTHRMS VALAttack errElizabeth Lualemaga+0.2
137-6MS VALMS VALBlockedBraelynn Reeseblk Aniyah Moore+0.2
147-7MS VALSOUTHRBad setAshlynn Hawkins+0.2
158-7SOUTHRMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims+0.2
168-8MS VALSOUTHRKillBraelynn Reeseset Maleah Faust+0.2
179-8SOUTHRMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims+0.2
189-9MS VALSOUTHRKillMaleah Faust+0.2
1910-9SOUTHRMS VAL×4KillTaylor Wootenset Kameryn Browne+0.3
2011-9MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errElizabeth Lualemaga+0.3
2112-9MS VALMS VAL×4Bad setMaleah Faust+0.4
2213-9MS VALMS VAL×4AceMississippi Val.aced Najah Harris+0.4
2313-10MS VALSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+0.3
2413-11SOUTHRSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Najah Harris+0.3
2514-11SOUTHRMS VALKillKameryn Browne+0.4
2614-12MS VALSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+0.3
2714-13SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errBrooklyn Brunt+0.3
2815-13SOUTHRMS VAL×4Attack errNyla Hoult+0.4
2916-13MS VALMS VAL×4AceMississippi Val.aced Elizabeth Lualemaga+0.4
3017-13MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errAlayah Wilson+0.5
3118-13MS VALMS VAL×4KillHannah St. Croixset Erin Mims+0.4
3218-14MS VALSOUTHRKillBraelynn Reeseset Penina Vito+0.3
3318-15SOUTHRSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.4
3419-15SOUTHRMS VALServe errSouthern U.+0.4
3520-15MS VALMS VALAttack errNyla Hoult+0.5
3620-16MS VALSOUTHRKillAyana Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.2
3720-17SOUTHRSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Najah Harris+0.4
3821-17SOUTHRMS VALKillAniyah Mooreset Erin Mims+0.5
3922-17MS VALMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims+0.4
4022-18MS VALSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.2
4122-19SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Norielle Battle+0.3
4222-20SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Attack errTaylor Wooten+0.4
4322-21SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.6
4423-21SOUTHRMS VALKillTaylor Wooten+0.8
4523-22MS VALSOUTHRAttack errTaylor Wooten+0.5
4624-22SOUTHRMS VALBlockedSereniti Johnsonblk Aniyah Moore, Brooklyn Brunt+1.0
4724-23MS VALSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.6
4825-23SOUTHRMS VALKillKameryn Browneset Erin Mims+1.4
Set 4
11-0MS VALMS VAL×4KillTaylor Wootenset Penina Vito+1.1
22-0MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errMariah Mott+1.3
33-0MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errMariah Mott+1.4
44-0MS VALMS VAL×4BlockedReagan Robinsonblk Aniyah Moore, Taylor Wooten+1.6
54-1MS VALSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+1.1
64-2SOUTHRSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+1.3
75-2SOUTHRMS VALAttack errBraelynn Reese+1.4
86-2MS VALMS VALAttack errAlayah Wilson+1.7
96-3MS VALSOUTHR×3KillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+1.2
106-4SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillSereniti Johnsonset Kameryn Browne+1.4
116-5SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Dashaun Pinesette+1.3
127-5SOUTHRMS VALBlockedAlayah Wilsonblk Hannah St. Croix, Taylor Wooten+1.4
137-6MS VALSOUTHR×8KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+1.2
147-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×8AceSouthern U.aced Taylor Wooten+1.3
157-8SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillSereniti Johnsonset Maleah Faust+1.1
167-9SOUTHRSOUTHR×8Attack errAubrie Walker+1.0
177-10SOUTHRSOUTHR×8Bad setKameryn Browne+0.8
187-11SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillPaulina Agudelo Marinset Maleah Faust+0.7
197-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×8BlockedHannah St. Croixblk Alyssa Williams, Sereniti Johnson+0.5
207-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×8KillSereniti Johnson+0.4
218-13SOUTHRMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.3
229-13MS VALMS VALBad setMaleah Faust+0.5
239-14MS VALSOUTHR×3KillSereniti Johnsonset Maleah Faust+0.5
249-15SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errHannah St. Croix+0.4
259-16SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillSereniti Johnsonset Najah Harris+0.3
2610-16SOUTHRMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims+0.2
2710-17MS VALSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Maleah Faust+0.2
2811-17SOUTHRMS VALServe errSouthern U.+0.2
2911-18MS VALSOUTHRKillAlyssa Williamsset Maleah Faust+0.2
3012-18SOUTHRMS VALServe errSouthern U.+0.2
3113-18MS VALMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Penina Vito+0.3
3213-19MS VALSOUTHR×3KillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+0.3
3313-20SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Bad setKameryn Browne+0.2
3413-21SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errBrooklyn Brunt+0.1
3514-21SOUTHRMS VALKillKameryn Browne+0.1
3614-22MS VALSOUTHRServe errMississippi Val.+0.1
3714-23SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errBrooklyn Brunt·
3815-23SOUTHRMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Kameryn Browne·
3915-24MS VALSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Alayah Wilson·
4015-25SOUTHRSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito·

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi Val. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).