FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

3:0

HomePATRIOT

Penn def. Lafayette 3–0

(25-16, 25-12, 25-15)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
PENN	25	25	25	3
LAFAYE	16	12	15	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

LAFAYE above 50 · PENN below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Lafayette — set 1, PENN 8-6 LAFAYE. Lafayette ace on Jenna Garner. LAFAYE win probability 5% → 5%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PENN 93.4%6.6% LAFAYE

Penn wins

3-0

51.4%

3-1

30.7%

3-2

11.4%

Lafayette wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.9%

3-2

3.9%

PENN break %: 49.4% vs this opp
LAFAYE break %: 37.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
LAFAYE serverAce+0.6%
Lafayette ace on Jenna Garner
Set 1 · PENN 8-6 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 5% → 5%
02
Haley KerstetterKill+0.6%
Kill by Haley Kerstetter (set by Emery Moore)
Set 1 · PENN 2-0 LAFAYE · PENN 94% → 95%
03
Zada SangerAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Zada Sanger
Set 1 · PENN 4-2 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 5% → 5%
04
Grace JamisonAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Grace Jamison
Set 1 · PENN 11-7 LAFAYE · PENN 95% → 96%
05
Grace JamisonAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Grace Jamison
Set 1 · PENN 1-0 LAFAYE · PENN 93% → 94%
06
Ellie SiskinKill+0.5%
Kill by Ellie Siskin (set by Addison Pollock)
Set 1 · PENN 3-0 LAFAYE · PENN 95% → 95%
07
Jada AksuKill+0.5%
Kill by Jada Aksu (set by Sophia Wilson)
Set 1 · PENN 9-7 LAFAYE · LAFAYE 5% → 5%
08
Ellie SiskinKill+0.5%
Kill by Ellie Siskin (set by Emery Moore)
Set 1 · PENN 10-7 LAFAYE · PENN 95% → 95%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Pennaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellie SiskinOH	3	10	1	20	.450	0	4	2	2	0	1	0.5	14.5
9Haley KerstetterMB	3	10	0	12	.833	0	0	0	5	0	3	1.5	11.5
2Jenna GarnerOH	3	6	3	18	.167	0	1	1	11	1	2	1	8
13Adell MurrayMB	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
8Zada SangerOH	3	4	2	20	.100	1	0	0	3	0	2	1	5
12Emery MooreS	3	1	0	2	.500	24	0	0	5	0	0	0	1
10Skylar GreeneOH	3	6	1	14	.357	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
18Addison PollockL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	4	1	0	22	0	0	0	1
7Nathalie TsaiS	3	0	0	1	.000	9	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
11Elsa McDermottL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	7	98	.357	38	6	4	57	2	12	6	75

Lafayettehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Auma Mbeche-OdhiamboOH	3	9	5	35	.114	0	0	1	6	0	1	0.5	9.5
22Destiny McKenzieOH	3	8	4	30	.133	0	0	1	9	0	1	0.5	8.5
26Noa KamphuisMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	1	1	5	0	1	0.5	4.5
13Grace JamisonOH	3	1	6	19	-.263	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	2
9Johanna GrogerMB	3	1	0	3	.333	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
27LK LaMonicaS	2	0	0	1	.000	7	1	1	4	0	0	0	1
20Jada AksuOH	3	4	5	13	-.077	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
6Alyssa ChuL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	12	2	0	0	0
1Sophia WilsonS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
11Justine PuigOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	1
5Mackenzie CalhounS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	21	111	.054	26	2	5	45	6	6	3	43

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 PENN · LAFAYE 3

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 6 PENNLAFAYE 2

Set 2*

25-12

Longest run 7 PENNLAFAYE 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 4 PENNLAFAYE 3

Bars above the line = Lafayette leads, below = Penn leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Penn

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%4/6	78%7/9
2	67%4/6	71%10/14
3	100%4/4	60%6/10
4	80%4/5	0%0/4
5	57%4/7	20%1/5
6	80%4/5	33%2/6
All	73%24/33	54%26/48

Lafayette

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	29%4/14	33%2/6
2	40%4/10	33%2/6
3	100%4/4	0%0/4
4	80%4/5	20%1/5
5	67%4/6	43%3/7
6	22%2/9	20%1/5
All	46%22/48	27%9/33

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

118 rallies

Rally log

#	PENN-LAFAYE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LAFAYE	PENN×4	Attack err	Grace Jamison		+0.5
2	2-0	PENN	PENN×4	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Emery Moore	+0.6
3	3-0	PENN	PENN×4	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Addison Pollock	+0.5
4	4-0	PENN	PENN×4	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+0.4
5	4-1	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set LK LaMonica	+0.3
6	4-2	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Attack err	Zada Sanger		+0.5
7	5-2	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.4
8	6-2	PENN	PENN	Attack err	Grace Jamison	blk Zada Sanger, Haley Kerstetter	+0.5
9	6-3	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set LK LaMonica	+0.4
10	7-3	LAFAYE	PENN	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	blk Haley Kerstetter, Zada Sanger	+0.4
11	7-4	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+0.4
12	8-4	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Skylar Greene	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.4
13	8-5	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Sophia Wilson	+0.4
14	8-6	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Ace	LAFAYE server	aced Jenna Garner	+0.6
15	9-6	LAFAYE	PENN	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.5
16	9-7	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Jada Aksu	set Sophia Wilson	+0.5
17	10-7	LAFAYE	PENN×6	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.5
18	11-7	PENN	PENN×6	Attack err	Grace Jamison		+0.5
19	12-7	PENN	PENN×6	Kill	Adell Murray	set Emery Moore	+0.4
20	13-7	PENN	PENN×6	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie		+0.3
21	14-7	PENN	PENN×6	Kill	Adell Murray	set Emery Moore	+0.2
22	15-7	PENN	PENN×6	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.1
23	15-8	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set LK LaMonica	+0.1
24	15-9	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+0.2
25	16-9	LAFAYE	PENN×5	Kill	Jenna Garner	set Emery Moore	+0.1
26	17-9	PENN	PENN×5	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Emery Moore	+0.1
27	18-9	PENN	PENN×5	Kill	Zada Sanger	set Emery Moore	+0.1
28	19-9	PENN	PENN×5	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Emery Moore	+0.0
29	20-9	PENN	PENN×5	Kill	Zada Sanger	set Emery Moore	+0.0
30	20-10	PENN	LAFAYE	Attack err	Zada Sanger	blk Grace Jamison, Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	+0.0
31	20-11	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Attack err	Ellie Siskin		+0.0
32	21-11	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.0
33	21-12	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Alyssa Chu	+0.0
34	22-12	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.0
35	22-13	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Noa Kamphuis	set Sophia Wilson	+0.0
36	23-13	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Addison Pollock	+0.0
37	23-14	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Jada Aksu	set Sophia Wilson	+0.0
38	24-14	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Jenna Garner	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.0
39	24-15	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Emery Moore	+0.0
40	24-16	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set LK LaMonica	+0.0
41	25-16	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Adell Murray	set Emery Moore	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	PENN	PENN	Ace	PENN server	aced Justine Puig	+0.5
2	1-1	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Justine Puig	set Sophia Wilson	+0.4
3	2-1	LAFAYE	PENN×7	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.4
4	3-1	PENN	PENN×7	Attack err	Jada Aksu		+0.4
5	4-1	PENN	PENN×7	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Sophia Wilson	+0.4
6	5-1	PENN	PENN×7	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+0.3
7	6-1	PENN	PENN×7	Attack err	Jada Aksu		+0.2
8	7-1	PENN	PENN×7	Attack err	Noa Kamphuis		+0.2
9	8-1	PENN	PENN×7	Ace	PENN server	aced Alyssa Chu	+0.1
10	8-2	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+0.1
11	9-2	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Emery Moore	+0.1
12	9-3	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Johanna Groger	+0.1
13	10-3	LAFAYE	PENN×3	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.1
14	11-3	PENN	PENN×3	Kill	Jenna Garner	set Addison Pollock	+0.1
15	12-3	PENN	PENN×3	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	blk Haley Kerstetter, Skylar Greene	+0.1
16	12-4	PENN	LAFAYE	Serve err	PENN server		+0.0
17	13-4	LAFAYE	PENN×5	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.0
18	14-4	PENN	PENN×5	Kill	Skylar Greene	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.0
19	15-4	PENN	PENN×5	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie	blk Jenna Garner, Adell Murray	+0.0
20	16-4	PENN	PENN×5	Kill	Jenna Garner		+0.0
21	17-4	PENN	PENN×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
22	17-5	PENN	LAFAYE×3	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+0.0
23	17-6	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Attack err	Skylar Greene		+0.0
24	17-7	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Attack err	Jenna Garner	blk Destiny McKenzie, Noa Kamphuis	+0.0
25	18-7	LAFAYE	PENN	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.0
26	18-8	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Noa Kamphuis	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+0.0
27	19-8	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.0
28	19-9	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Noa Kamphuis	set Sophia Wilson	+0.0
29	20-9	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Emery Moore	set Zada Sanger	+0.0
30	20-10	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Sophia Wilson	+0.0
31	21-10	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Emery Moore	+0.0
32	21-11	PENN	LAFAYE	Serve err	PENN server		+0.0
33	22-11	LAFAYE	PENN×3	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie		+0.0
34	23-11	PENN	PENN×3	Attack err	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo		+0.0
35	24-11	PENN	PENN×3	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.0
36	24-12	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set Mackenzie Calhoun	+0.0
37	25-12	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Skylar Greene	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Adell Murray	set Emery Moore	+0.2
2	2-0	PENN	PENN	Kill	Haley Kerstetter	set Emery Moore	+0.2
3	2-1	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Sophia Wilson	+0.2
4	3-1	LAFAYE	PENN×3	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.1
5	4-1	PENN	PENN×3	Attack err	Jada Aksu		+0.2
6	5-1	PENN	PENN×3	Ace	PENN server	aced Team	+0.1
7	5-2	PENN	LAFAYE	Bad set	Emery Moore		+0.1
8	6-2	LAFAYE	PENN	Attack err	Jada Aksu		+0.1
9	6-3	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Jada Aksu	set Sophia Wilson	+0.1
10	7-3	LAFAYE	PENN	Attack err	Skylar Greene		+0.1
11	7-4	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Auma Mbeche-Odhiambo	set LK LaMonica	+0.1
12	8-4	LAFAYE	PENN×3	Kill	Jenna Garner	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.1
13	9-4	PENN	PENN×3	Attack err	Grace Jamison	blk Adell Murray, Jenna Garner	+0.1
14	10-4	PENN	PENN×3	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.1
15	10-5	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Johanna Groger	set LK LaMonica	+0.1
16	11-5	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Adell Murray	set Emery Moore	+0.1
17	11-6	PENN	LAFAYE	Serve err	PENN server		+0.1
18	11-7	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Sophia Wilson	+0.1
19	12-7	LAFAYE	PENN×3	Attack err	Jada Aksu	blk Ellie Siskin, Adell Murray	+0.1
20	13-7	PENN	PENN×3	Kill	Ellie Siskin	set Emery Moore	+0.1
21	14-7	PENN	PENN×3	Kill	Zada Sanger	set Emery Moore	+0.1
22	14-8	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Destiny McKenzie	set Sophia Wilson	+0.0
23	15-8	LAFAYE	PENN×4	Kill	Zada Sanger	set Emery Moore	+0.0
24	16-8	PENN	PENN×4	Ace	PENN server	aced Team	+0.0
25	17-8	PENN	PENN×4	Ace	PENN server	aced Alyssa Chu	+0.0
26	18-8	PENN	PENN×4	Ace	PENN server	aced Team	+0.0
27	18-9	PENN	LAFAYE	Serve err	PENN server		+0.0
28	19-9	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Skylar Greene	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.0
29	19-10	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Jada Aksu	set Sophia Wilson	+0.0
30	19-11	LAFAYE	LAFAYE	Ace	LAFAYE server	aced Team	+0.0
31	20-11	LAFAYE	PENN	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.0
32	21-11	PENN	PENN	Attack err	Grace Jamison		+0.0
33	21-12	PENN	LAFAYE×3	Attack err	Jenna Garner		+0.0
34	21-13	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Serve err	LAFAYE server		+0.0
35	21-14	LAFAYE	LAFAYE×3	Bad set	Nathalie Tsai		+0.0
36	22-14	LAFAYE	PENN	Kill	Skylar Greene	set Nathalie Tsai	+0.0
37	22-15	PENN	LAFAYE	Kill	Grace Jamison	set LK LaMonica	+0.0
38	23-15	LAFAYE	PENN×3	Kill	Jenna Garner	set Addison Pollock	+0.0
39	24-15	PENN	PENN×3	Attack err	Destiny McKenzie		+0.0
40	25-15	PENN	PENN×3	Attack err	Grace Jamison		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Penn first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.